Should the Jays "Longoria" Snider?

I was thinking this morning about how amazing Travis Snider is as a 20 year old. I'll admit that I did not want him up here this season in the majors. But in 38 at bats, he's exceeded my expectations. He's hitting a ridiculous 316/366/533 (140 OPS+). The strikeouts are pretty scary - 10 K's in 38 AB which would give him 144-145 in 550 at bats. So it couldn't hurt to give him just a little more time in AAA in my opinion, despite his early success.

But if and when the Jays do ultimately decide to make him a major leaguer, there's very little doubt at this point that he'll become a star. Whether it's as a RF, a LF, a 1B, or a DH, he's going to be one of, if not the best player on the team. So wouldn't it make sense to give him a long term contract, and make sure he's around for as long as possible?

That's when I started thinking about the deal Longoria got from the Rays. Another 06 draftee, Longoria was given a 6 year deal worth 17.5 million dollars, with team options for 3 years worth 7.5, 11, and 11.5 million. So including those numbers, it's a 9 year deal worth 47.5 million. An average value of 5.3 million per year.

Snider and Longoria had very similar numbers going through the minors - Longoria posted a 920 OPS in his brief stay in the minors, while Snider had an 888 OPS in the minors. Snider was 2 years younger, and only had faced high school competition, whereas Longoria had been through a couple of years of playing in college. So it seems more impressive that Snider hit the ground running, and did almost as well as a guy who faced tougher competition, while being YOUNGER than Longoria.

Now, the one thing in Longoria's favour is that he plays better defense at a more critical position. Not only that, he plays it very well - right now he's 7th for qualifiers in ZR, which is very impressive. Snider might end up only playing LF, 1B or DH, as he's currently blocked by Rios in RF for the forseeable future.

Of course there are risks to doing this deal - what if Snider turns out to be a bust? What if he gets injured? Well, you've only guaranteed him 6 years at 17.5 million, for an annual cost of 2.91 mil per season. There is a 3 million dollar buyout to avoid paying the other options, so at worst you pay 20.5 mil over 6 years to a guy who looked like a stud but couldn't deliver.

On the other hand, what if Snider becomes the superstar we expect him to be? In that case, as I've said earlier, you've locked him up for 9 years, at a ridiculously low rate (47.5 or so million). He wouldn't be a free agent till he's what, 30?

In order to beat teams like the Sox and the Yanks, the Jays are going to need to take risks. Signing Snider now (or whenever he becomes a fulltime player) to a deal like this would be a relatively small risk, with a very large reward. It would allow them to build a team around Snider, while ensuring their best player is under market value through his prime years.

There's no guarantee Snider's going to start in 2009 with the Jays. But if he is going to be a regular, the Jays need to look into trying to sign him to a "Longoria" type deal. There's no guarantee Snider would even accept it, but it's an option the Jays just can't ignore.

Twitchy.

Showtime!

The decision has been made, the savior has arrived, for better or worse the future is now...

TRAVIS SNIDER HAS ARRIVED.

Matt Stairs, alas, designated for assignment. Reportedly the Jays are working on moving him to a contending team (which would presumably save us the one million he's owed next season)

An excerpt from the news release:

The Blue Jays would not reveal which team was attempting to acquire Stairs -- only that the deal will hopefully be completed within the next two days. This season, the 40-year-old Stairs hit .250 with 11 home runs and 44 RBIs in 105 games for Toronto.

Last year, Stairs hit .289 with 21 homers and 64 RBIs over 125 games for the Jays, who inked him to a two-year contract extension worth $3.25 million in November. Stairs is under contract for $2.25 million this year and is scheduled to make $1 million in 2009.

Snider, 20, had his contract purchased from Triple-A Syracuse after hitting .344 with two homers and 17 RBIs through 18 games with the Chiefs. Between stints with Class A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire and Syracuse this year, the left-handed-hitting outfielder hit .275 with 23 homers and 91 RBIs over 133 games.

Hopefully Stairsy gets to finish his career with dignity. As for Snider, I'm not up for debating the wisdom of this right now but clearly, the whole discussion about whether to bring in a big bat next season just got hellaciously more complex.

~WillRain

Update: Stairs to Phillies.

Per Ken Rosenthal:

The Jays will receive a prospect in return. The identity of that player has not yet been determined.

Urging Caution

There was definitely some excitment last night hearing JP announce on JaysTalk that phenom Travis Snider had been called up to AAA, which probably puts him on track for a mid-season call up next year. Snider is undoubtably the most exciting young position player to come through the Jays system since Vernon Wells came up to stay in 2001 and good or ill in 2009, it'll be a pleasure to watch Snider develop with big club.

And there there was some trepidation.

There's little more than 3 weeks left to play in the high minor leagues and Snider's promotion to Syracuse at this point amounts to nothing more than a brief peekaboo at the next rung up the ladder. If it must be said that he played through an elbow injury early in the season, it should also be noted that he hasn't dominated AA either (.258/.351/.456 in 333 ABs).

It's a feather in his cap to make the jump from high A ball to AAA in his age 20 season, but that pat in the back could've also come in the form of a September call-up after finishing out the year in New Hampshire and semi-regular PT in the bigs for a few weeks. Added benefits: give the fan base a glimpse of the future (and sell a few extra tickets to otherwise meaningless games), get the kid a taste of the bigs, then let him start 2009 fresh in Syracuse. No harm done.

I'm urging caution with Snider because two-thirds of the Jays current outfield is made up of promising young hitters who were rushed (by JP) through AAA and stalled during their first go at a full-time job in the bigs. There's no catch-all model for all hitters, but I'd hate to see the same happen to Snider next year after all the promise he's shown early in his pro career.

After dominating AA at age 22 (.923 OPS) in 2003, Alex Rios was called up to Toronto the following year despite scuffling (.665 OPS) through a brief 185-AB pit stop in Syracuse. While his first two seasons in the bigs weren't an unmitigated disaster, it was clear at the time that his game wasn't quite ready for prime time. Two years of service time were burnt for a .721 OPS season with 1 HR and a .703 OPS with 10 HR. Rios was knocking, but he hadn't yet kicked the door down.

Adam Lind followed a similar path, though he was promoted even more aggressively. He probably could have hit anything, anywhere back in 2006 as he actually got better with each successive call up, but he still only ended up with under 300 AAA ABs (and that after only about 2/3 of a season at AA) before coming up as Reed Johnson's injury replacement in 2007. We all know how that ended up, though there's little doubt now that he's a capable big league hitter. Nevertheless, that early promotion did some serious damage to his overall development, something that JP seems quite aware of these days.

I could go outside the organization to cite a few other examples of hitters who were imprudently rushed to the bigs, though none looms larger than Billy Butler, the young Royal whose game most closely resembles Snider's. Maybe Snider is born to hit and can handle the call to the bigs next year at age 21, but the risks of an aggressive promotion schedule have to be weighed against the long-term consequences for both the player and the team. As excited as you all are for him, don't assume that he should be a Jay in 2009.

-- Johnny Was

Heads Up

Nice Article on The Franchise over at Baseball America. Thankfully, it's not one of those behind the pay wall.

An excerpt:

"But he's tremendously competitive. I've seen him stand up to a couple of his teammates for doing some stuff that you would expect a veteran guy to do. He understands what's right and what's wrong in this game even though he's only in his second full season. So he does have a lot of leadership qualities and the guys really feed off of him, the way he does his business. He's a clown in the afternoon when we're out stretching, taking BP and all that—he has a good time—but when it's time to play the game, when those lights go on, you're talking about a really competitive kid."

It's a good read and will make you more excited, if that were possible, about seeing him in T.O.

*****
In regards to last night's news on Brian Jeroloman getting bumped to AAA, my guess about journeyman Erik Kratz going to AA in his place is correct. Also, Robinson Diaz got the call back to Syracuse as well so apparently Jeroloman is still looking at splitting time, though we don't know yet if Diaz will be catching or playing DH on a regular basis. Also worth noting is that Chip Cannon is headed for the DL. Does that mean Curtis Thigpen will play regularly at 1B? It's too bad the way Thigpen has collapsed this year.

~WillRain

Farm Report: All-Star Game Edition

As we wait for real baseball to resume once again, some good news from the system:

* Dave Purcey, the sole Chiefs rep at the AAA All-Star Game last night, got the start for the International League and responded by chucking 2 perfect innings against the best of the Pacific Coast League. (Mark Saccomanno? Any relation to Bob from NYC?) The IL lost, though I doubt that anyone really cares.

Big Dave didn't allow a hit, K'd 3, walked none, and demonstrated major league command of his arsenal. I'd figure he'll be starting on Tuesday against the O's at Camden Yards in a nice, low pressure return to the bigs. We at The Southpaw have sole bragging rights if he does make something of himself (and alternatively, would quietly drop the matter entirely if he doesn't).

* The Fisher Cats are in the midst of a crappy season collectively as a team, but that matters less to us here than the fact that they do have some fast-rising (star?) talent in the making. The hosts of the 2008 Northeast Delta Dental Eastern League All-Star Game (no shit, that's what it's actually called; no word if players wear ads for "Fly Emirates" on their jerseys) had 4 of their own men see action in the AA showcase: Travis Snider, Kiwi Scott Campbell, Brian Jeroloman, and closer Zach Dials. Jeroloman had a hit and scored a run in his lone AB, Campbell went 1 for 2 leading off, Snider went 0 for 2, and Dials picked up a hold despite allowing a run in his only inning of work. The Eastern League won 5-3.

Best of all though, Snider channelled the spirit of Josh Hamilton to wow the fans during the homerun derby (though he actually won the thing). Plagarizing liberally from theUnion Leader:

Snider flicked a switch that began an electric night. The kid bashed homers onto the train tracks beyond right field and pulled a Roy Hobbs with a shot into the bulbs atop the light tower.

As a heavy favorite in his home park, Snider barely advanced out of the first round as six sluggers took their hacks. In later rounds, including a couple tie-breakers, he sent vapor trails over the right-field wall. The 5-foot-11, 245-pounder had the benefit of his own batting practice pitcher, Ken Joyce, who fed The Franchise a diet of waist-high fastballs.

"I was finally able to relax and let it fly. Good things happens when you don't think and just hit," Snider said. "I've got give a lot of credit to Kenny. We've been working on this together for a couple weeks..."

Snider, Toronto's No. 1 prospect, homered four straight times in the second round and finished with 10 dingers. In the finals, which took place in the middle of the second inning "a terrific format for fans"-- Snider toppled the league's leading home run hitter, 7-6.

"The young legend keeps growing," Fisher Cats manager Gary Cathcart said. "He understood that whole scenario, how it was going to unfold being the hometown guy. It took him a couple rounds to get going, but it was almost like he started doing it because he knew he was going to do it. He's just one of those guys. Think about it. Three years from now, he'll have five years of pro ball, and he'll be in the big leagues at 23."

Yes, indeed.

The Jays resume action tomorrow night, when they try to piss in the Rays Corn Flakes down at the Trop. I have gone on record saying that I'm not against the Rays for the rest of this year when they're playing everyone else; after all, if they do win a playoff berth that means one of the Yankees or Bosox doesn't get to see any October ball this year. I'm just saying is all.

-- Johnny Was

Wells out 4-6 weeks

If there was any remaining sliver of hope for this season, the twin injuries to McGowan and Wells have now sealed the fate of the 2008 Jays. McLeod at The Globe & Mail reports that Wells has a "grade 2 strain" of his left hamstring. In the same post he reports that Dustin McGowan has no NEW tearing in his shoulder so there is much more hope that it is simply inflamed and with rest he can return, but that would still be at least a month away.

Hopefully the Jays take that as a warning shot regarding pitch counts, as Twitchy has pointed to, but it's still also good news that he doesn't, apparently, have a major issue. In the mean time, it seems almost certain now that David Purcey and John Parrish will both get regular turns over the next month (assuming an AJ deal coincides more or less with Marcum's hoped-for return). Should Marcum's injury keep him out longer, there will be a very interesting discussion of who else might join the team - and you can bet Brett Cecil's name will come up a lot.


The Jays have not revealed who they will add in Vernon's absence, but, interestingly, McLeod asks the following question:

Why not bring up Travis Snider, their No. 1 pick in the draft in 2006? He's hitting .286 in Triple A at Syracuse and leading the team with 13 home runs.

With the way this season is turning for Toronto why not bring him up and start him in the outfield like the Jays are doing with Adam Lind?

At the very least it would give the fans something to cheer about.

I'm not at all sure JP is willing to do that yet - especially given that Snider is not, in point of fact, in AAA Syracuse but in AA New Hampshire - and as anxious as I am to see Snider in the bigs it is legitimate to question his how his strikeout total would translate over such a jump. Conversely, unless you are pining for the return of Shannon Stewart, Kevin Mench or Buck Coats, there's not an obvious stopgap alternative.

My guess is that we WON'T be seeing Snider yet.

~WillRain

The Roundup

The Amateur Draft kicks off this week and it would be remiss of me not to pass along some thoughts on that topic. The Jays choose 17th, our only pick in the first round. None of those delicious supplemental rounders like last year, sadly.

For the historically minded, here's what we've got back from our first overall pick over the years. It's interesting to note just how crappy pretty much all of Pat Gillick's first rounders were through the '80s. Ed Sprague and John Cerutti (RIP) were the best of the bunch? Blehhh. The '90s were a great decade, producing 6 bona fide stars from Shawn Green to Alex Rios, and it's too early to tell for the 2000s.

As for this year's draft in general, Keith Law writes:

This year's crop better resembles 2004's low-upside college-centric first round... The draft's top tier of talent is deepest in an unsexy area -- college corner infielders. That category of player has typically yielded high returns -- from past names like Mark Teixeira, Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro to more recent picks including Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun and Nick Swisher -- but doesn't fit the standard first-round profile of players who offer a wide set of plus tools or pitchers with big fastballs and good breaking balls.

(Sorry to those of you who didn't get a chance to read the article in full before it was put behind the ESPN insider wall.)

Brett Wallace, a slugging 3B/1B from Arizona State University, is the guy the Jays are rumoured to be pining for, but it seems unlikely he'll still be on the board by the time they pick. Many are speculating that Godfrey is putting pressure on JP to take Canucker Brett Lawrie (C/3B), and when Godfrey wants something done (like signing V-Dub to a ridiculous extension, not signing Barry Bonds), it usually happens.

Here's the MiLB scouting profile on Lawrie:

Focus Area	Comments
Hitting Ability:	He's got tremendous hand strength and a quick bat, but he's a little pull conscious and with an open stance, he gives away too much of the outer part of the plate.
Power:	His best tool is his plus, plus raw power, though it's mostly to the pull side now.
Running Speed:	He's an average runner, maybe a tick above at times.
Base running:	He's a good baserunner who runs better underway.
Arm Strength:	He's got a plus arm which plays average in games.
Fielding:	He's got strong hands and quick feet, but his catching skills are rudimentary.
Range:	He has the athleticsm and quickness, but needs to work on blocking balls and shifting.
Physical Description:	Lawrie is an athletic player who might have the right build and frame to be a quick backstop.
Medical Update:	Healthy.
Strengths:	Plus, plus raw power, generated by strong hands and bat speed.
Weaknesses:	His lack of a true position. Catching might be the best bet, but he's behind due to lack of experience.
Summary:	Scouting Canadian players can sometimes be difficult because of the lack of opportunity to see them. But scouts know all about Lawrie and his plus power potential, something he's been able to show off while playing for the Langley Blaze in British Columbia. What they don't know is where he can play, though he's shown the tools -- raw though they may be -- to handle being a catcher. It may take a while, but putting that bat behind the plate could one day make him a premium player.

Over at Batter's Box, a council of learned elder bloggers from around the major leagues came up with this mock draft that had the Jays selecting Tulane RHP Shooter Hunt (one of the top RHP in the draft), but take it with a grain of salt because Baseball America predicts that the Astros will take him 10th overall. Prospect guy John Sickels sees the Jays taking Lawrie.

Interestingly, none of the following Canadian stars were drafted highly: Russell Martin (17th round, 2002), Jason Bay (22nd round, 2000), and Justin Morneau (3rd round, 1999). Larry Walker and Matt Stairs were both signed as amateur free agents by the Expos back in the' 80s. Presumably Canada was considered Interzone territory like Mexico and the Dominican Republic back in those days and players from the Great White North were not included in the regular draft like their American confreres.

For your reading pleasure, here are Keith Law's Top 25 prospects:

Rank	Player	Pos.
1.	Tim Beckham	SS
2.	Buster Posey	C
3.	Justin Smoak	1B
4.	Eric Hosmer	1B
5.	Pedro Alvarez	3B
6.	Aaron Crow	RHP
7.	Brian Matusz	RHP
8.	Gordon Beckham	SS
9.	Brett Wallace	3B
10.	Gerrit Cole	RHP
11.	Kyle Skipworth	C
12.	Christian Friedrich	LHP
13.	Aaron Hicks	RF/RHP
14.	Yonder Alonso	1B
15.	Ethan Martin	RHP/3B
16.	Josh Fields	RHP
17.	Casey Kelly	SS/RHP
18.	Tim Melville	RHP
19.	Shooter Hunt	RHP
20.	Jason Castro	C
21.	Conor Gillaspie	3B
22.	Andrew Cashner	RHP
23.	Lance Lynn	RHP
24.	David Cooper	1B
25.	Reese Havens	SS

Down on the farm, more props for Kyle Ginley, the first 10 game winner in the minors. He's posted an identical 5-0 record at both Lansing and Dunedin with not unsexy peripherals, so a call up to AA can't be too far off. He doesn't seem to do anything exceptionally well, but good control, nice K numbers, good GB rates and limiting the long ball are all nice skills to have on your CV.

Minor scare: Travis Snider took a foul ball in the head while he was in the on-deck circle during yesterday's Fisher Cats game, but he appears to be fine.

ELSEWHERE:

* David Ortiz felt his left wrist "pop" in a 9th inning AB on Saturday night and is now day-to-day. That might make you a bit sad seeing as the Bosox are taking on the tamale hot TB Rays, now a shocking 13 games over .500. It just doesn't seem real.

-- Johnny Was

The Unsung Heroes

We seem to say far too little on this blog about minors leaguers in the Jays system. And when we do it's usually David Purcey or Adam Lind or Travis Snider. But there are other fine performances going on in the Jays system - delivered by guys who are not only not in the Big Three, but are often the sort of guys that Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus and the like can't be arsed to pay any attention to.

but if Shawn Marcum has taught us anything, it's that you don't have to make the top 150 prospect list to have bona fide major league ability. so her are a few names the causal fan might not recognize, but who stand a chance of making some big league noise one day:

Davis Romero (LHP) - Who is he? He's a slender (5' 10" 160#) lefty who's having a remarkable comeback from torn labium surgery (corrected per feedback comment).

Usually expectations for the first year after surgery are very tempered, and labium surjery is even less predictable than TJ, but DR is defying that convention. The 25 year old LHP is starting in AAA and has a solid ERA of 3.86 and 30 K's in his 26 innings of work as a starter. what's more, if you take away one disastrous start, that ERA falls all the way to 1.52 in his other seven appearances. And his line is perfectly reflective of the rest of his minor league career. While he's starting with Syracuse, he doesn't go deep into games and he probably doesn't have the stamina to start in the majors (though he did average 6 IP per start in AA in 2006) but if his minor league performance is any indication, you can look for a ton of high quality set-up innings in a blue Jays uniform sometime relatively soon.
One thing that is sometimes discussed among Jays' fans is the potential of trading Brian Tallett at some point, given the emergence of Jessie Carlson. Well, whether or not Carlson proves to be a long term keeper, Davis Romero is the guy who's going to someday make Tallet trade bait.

Brandon League (RHP) - Included here simply because he's no longer a rookie and thus kind of "off the radar" in terms of prospect discussions. He's got a 15:2 K:BB ratio in his last 13 IP in AAA and seems to have gotten his issue under control, yet the major league pen is so crowded there's no way for him to get reps in the majors. Interestingly, in 4 of his last six appearances he pitched 3 innings and pitched them well. The speculation has started in JaysLand that perhaps he's being stretched out for a return to the rotation. I could get enthused about him either way, I just don't want to see him wasted in middle relief....and I'd prefer that when he became a prominent major leaguer, as he's likely to do, it be in a Jays uniform.

Scott Campbell (2B) - The 23 year old native of New Zealand has been one of the biggest surprises in the Jays system. Drafted 300th overall (in the 10th round) by the Jays in 2006, he was bounced from low A ball (where he was good but not great) in 2006 to AA in 2007 and he's been ripping up the Eastern League all season. The kid is an on-base machine (.401 at the moment) with a high average (.338) and middling power for his position. He needs some defensive versatility to have a future with the Jays, since he's behind Aaron Hill, but if 2B is his only position, he'll still be a valuable trade chip soon if this level of performance holds into AAA. i think given that there's nothing impressive blocking him, he might get the promotion in mid-summer.

Ryan Patterson (OF) - Having an up and down season, shows flashes and then fades. Might be "the next Reed Johnson" someday but doesn't have the reputation for balls-out play that Reed does.

Brett Cecil (LHP) - actually, this guy is a high profile guy who most people put up in the top Five prospects for the Jays but perhaps you have been asleep since we haven't said much about him here (and I assume you get all your Jays news from The Southpaw, right? I said am I right?) Well, anyway, this kid, who was a supplemental first rounder for the jays just last year) is 21 and in AA and has a 3.18 ERA. He's reeled off 3 straight starts of 4.2IP and allowed only three ER in those 14 innings. He's still not going deep into games - the Jays say that will change as the season wears on - but unless he hits a roadblock, this kid will likely finish the season in AAA and come to camp next spring with an outside chance of making the majors. He could be a reliever in the bigs right now, but the Jays will keep him starting as long as he shows promise there.

Brian Dopirak (1B/DH) - maybe this guy was signed for organizational filler but at some point you have to take notice. The former Cubs Minor League Player of the year (who hit 38 doubles and 39 homers in Lansing when it was a Cubs affiliate) saw his power drop markedly in the two succeeding seasons. Signed as a minor league free agent, the 24 year old is having a fine, though not quite as powerful, campaign in Dunedin He's on a pace to top 40 doubles and 20 homers but more importantly for his future, he's sporting a robust .425 OPS this year. Whatever the teams original intent, as soon as Snider can play the field again, he needs to get kicked up to AA and see if he can maintain.

Kyle Ginley (RHP) - You gotta love THIS guy! In nine starts on two levels, the little noticed 17th round draft pick in 2006 has only posted an ERA of 1.35 and he's striking out almost a batter per inning and only given up two home runs. The 21 year old has been slightly more prone to the walk at High A than at Low A but has otherwise been just as good. Nathan Staner (RHP) -

Nathan Staner (LHP) - He's 24 and in Lansing so he's too old for the competition. He needs to be jumped up to AA to see what he really has to offer, but with that caveat, - boy he's ripping up low A ball. 45K in 40 innings, a 1.67 ERA, only eight walks and one home run allowed. LH pitchers tend to run a bit behind on development anyway. So you can't write him off, but I'm impatient for the Jays to really test this guy.

Cody Crowell (LHP) - I think I'm the only one out there talking about this guy. sometimes I do pick up on a nice line and brag on a guy who never turns out....usually something I didn't know about him that the organization did, but this guy certainly has impressive numbers. The 22 year old lefty has a 1.59 ERA at low-A Lansing and an incredible 29 K's in 17 IP.

Edger Estranga (LHP) - another 22 year old lefty reliever, he sports a 0.73 ERA and a solid K rate. Both these young men need promotions to a more challenging level.

Marc Rzepczynski (LHP) - This guy got some notice last year, then opened the season on the DL. He has two starts at Lansing now and has seemed to pick right up, He bears watching.


Justin Jackson (SS) - He's been in an awful slump since coming back from a stint in the DL but he clearly had his stroke working in April (he had a .941 OPS in the first month of the season). The 19 year old evokes visions of Tony Fernandez physically and is said to be a similarly talented defender and possesor of "tools." it would be a very good thing if he came as fast as Fernandez did, and had a similar career. Because it's so easy to compare him to Fernandez - one of my very favorite All time Jays, I can't help but be the number one cheerleader for Justin Jackson.
If he succeeds to the level of his abilities, he's going to do a whole lot to repaid JP's drafting image.

Eric Eiland (OF) - The 19 year old left handed hitter is just getting his start in Low A ball after being held back in extended spring training, but the guy who's said to have more Tools than Tim Taylor is off to a blazing start in a small sample (4 games). Keep your eye on this one.

Johermyn Chavez (OF) - The one guy listed here without an impressive stat line to talk about, the 19 year old Venezualan still bears watching. He had an encouraging April but is currently 7 for 50 in May.

So, halfway through the first half, here's one man's informal Dandy Dozen ranking of the Jays most promising minor leaguers:

1. Travis Snider
2. David Purcey
3. Brett Cecil
4. Adam Lind
5. Brandon League
6. Justin Jackson
7. Eric Eiland
8. Kevin Ahrens
9. Davis Romero
10. Scott Campbell
11. J.P. Arenchiba
12. Kyle Ginley


~ WillRain

The Roundup

Tune of the day is "Hope" by the Descedents. Very much appropriate to our non-girl related concerns in the here 'n' now.

The Oracle says that the Jays totally won yesterday, but I didn't see it after being rooked into an afternoon at the the-atre. From what I've gleaned Litsch was great and the bats were good enough. Rock on.

Doc takes on "36-year-old" Jose Contreras of the pale hosers this afternoon. I make no prediction because they're mostly wrong anyway, so just pour over the B-R preview and come to your own conclusions.

If Seinfeld was indeed "a show about nothing", here's an article about nothing. Mats Sundin has warning track power? Can he play short? No surprise that Matt Stairs was pretty much the only one of the team to engage him in conversation.

Bob Elliot goes all sarcastic about the "Fire Gibby" set. It's really out of character and kind of funny.

Larry Millson of the Globe checks in on a struggling Travis Snider down at AA New Hampshire. The young slugger in his own words:

“I'm obviously going through an adjustment period right now. I don't think it is as much as the level I'm at as it is what I'm doing in my swing. I'm trying to iron some things out with the hitting coach. I've really been just grinding it out in the cage and trying to get as much work in as possible and just allow these things to kind of care of themselves and go out there and start swinging the bat the way I can.”

There's still plenty of ball left and he his success in the Arizona Fall League last year indicate that he has the raw ability to turn things around, but there is an enormous amount of pressure on young Travis to become a Force and quick.

ELSEWHERE:

* Scott Kazmir makes his first start of the season today at Fenway, where he's been a raging Bosox killer over the years (which probably points towards the Beantowners poaching him when he hits free agency). He's on a strict pitch count of 100, which should get him through about 4 innings. And therein lies the reason why I'm not that impressed with one of the "best" young starters in the American League.

* Darrell Rasner the Yankees saviour? I smell blood in the water...

* Did you want a voyeuristic Roger Clemens update? From the NY Daily News (the rag that broke the story):

Dr. Lawrence Balter, a professor of applied psychology at New York University who has not worked with Clemens, says men and women who are as blatant about affairs as Clemens has been have an oversized sense of entitlement.

"They believe if it makes them feel good, it's justified," says Balter...

Through it all, Clemens never made much of an effort to cover his tracks, at least not once he got comfortable with a woman and her friends or family.

"Damn miracle," says a source close to the couple when asked how Clemens was able to keep his affair with McCready away from the prying lenses of the paparazzi for so many years.

Touché.

* Your AL and NL players of the month for April are Josh Hamilton and Chase Utley respectively. Good on you, lads.

-- Johnny Was

Don't Mess with De Jesus!

David Dejesus really didn't accomplish much of any great importance in tonight's laugher against KC, but I've been holding that one in for weeks waiting for a Jays-Royals series.

If you're not already acquainted with him, you will get to know the young Billy Butler very soon. The butterball Royals DH came close to an .800 OPS at age 21 last year in his rookie season and has computer projection models ringing happily.

Prospect guy John Sickels writes:

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that, barring a catastrophic injury of some sort, Butler will be an excellent major league hitter. But the exact shape of that excellence is still a question. He has the long-term ability to hit .340-.350 eventually. He could be a 30+ homer guy if he concentrates more on power at the expense of batting average. With a maximal outcome, he could do BOTH at some point.

I picked Butler in my fantasy league because I like to have a a few players of this pedigree in my back pocket for deadline moves, but I'm thinking I just might hang on to the Chubby Bunny.

There are some obvious similarities between Butler and our very own wunderkind Travis Snider. Physically, they're both stocky (I'm being polite; both have been accused of having "bad" bodies) and would probably be taken by strangers as linebackers rather than ballplayers. Both were early first round picks straight out of high school and tore up the minors. Neither is very accomplished in the field, but Snider could very well end up in the outfield or first whereas Butler's bat earned him such a rapid promotion that he didn't have time to learn to play any position adequately.

Age 18: Rookie League

Butler: .373/.488/.596 (260 ABs)
Snider: .325/.412/.567 (194 ABs)

Age 19:

Butler: A+ .348/.419/.636 (379 ABs); AA .313/.353/.527
Snider: A .313/.377/.525

The biggest difference between the two is their K rate. Butler struck out only 87 times between AAA and the bigs while drawing 70 walks in a combined 532 ABs. Those numbers are remarkable considering the tender age at which he was playing at such a high level. Snider's K numbers have hovered around 25% in both of his pro seasons to date, which has alarmed some.

Snider came through the Appalacian and Midwest Leagues, both of which are known to be highly favourable to pitchers. Butler put up an .887 OPS in AA at age 20 and was up to the bigs the following year after a short 57-game stint in AAA.

Is Snider, 20, a year and a half away from the bigs? Butler was admittedly a more polished hitter at the same age, but Marc Hulet has speculated that Snider may well be simliarly rushed. He feels that if this is the case it would be more the product of JP's need to prove that he's capable of developing star players rather than serving the best interests of the player.

Nevertheless, I reckon you'll hear the two mentioned in the same breath with increasing frequency as Snider's ML debut draws closer.

Zach Greinke was dominant tonight but the bullpen coughed it up on him. And then David Ecstein made his second error of the night on a routine double play feed from Scott Downs. Why would we use J-Mac as his defensive caddy? Oh that's right: thanks asshole, you single-handedly lost the game.

Saviour Scott Rolen? I'd fucking say so. He drew a walk in his first AB, hit a deep flyball to left in his second, hit a hard grounder to short, then went all Stud Powercock and hit a massive 2-run double to put the Jays up 4-2 in the 8th. That's dirtbaggin' boyos! Oh wait, we still lost. To the Royals.

Overbay responded to the allegations that he's got no pop left in the 7th by socking his first dinger of the year to right centre, knotting the game at one. Twitchy brought the issue up here as part of his due dilligence as a statistical observer of all things, but we wanted to believe that Overbay's 2006 season isn't so far in the rear view mirror. Let's hope that turns out to be the case.

Narrator (Jerry Seinfeld tone): What is the deeeeaaaaal with Adam Lind?

It's impossible to get a straight answer. Mlb.com gives us this:

Manager John Gibbons said prior to Friday's game against Kansas City that the hot-hitting Lind could be close to joining the Blue Jays.

"He may be here in a few days," Gibbons said. "He has had the neck problem, but he's getting beyond that."

Right, thanks skip. Miss Cleo is more specific.

There's been a good deal of internet speculation that Super 2 considerations are the sole reason why Lind hasn't been called up yet. I'd rather learn advance calculus than find out what Super 2 actually means, but in a vague terms it's related to a player's service time and arbitration eligibility. Short version: the longer the club holds Lind back, the less risk he becomes a super 2 and the less the club has to pay him when he hits his arb year. So, it's all about money.

I put the question to Blair and this is what he said:

I'm told that service time is, in fact, 95 per-cent of the reason that Lind hasn't been up yet - along with a sore neck which doesn't appear to have hampered him at the plate. My understanding is that the Blue Jays want to prevent Lind from being what is called a "Super-2," that's it's more about arbitration eligibility than free agency. Each year a varied percentage of players without three years of service time are essentially "granted" salary arbitration rights, anyhow. The number isn't fixed, but it is common for teams to figure out how long they need to keep a player down in the minors to err on the side of caution and prevent him from becoming a "Super-2." Unless it's a guy like Evan Longoria, someone who can single-handedly change the dynamic of the team, it's a common practice for Major League clubs.

Players only receive credit toward service time when they are in the majors. Oh ... and I'm told Lind could be up with the big team this weekend. Good thing, too, because this was a team that was short from the left side even when it thought Lyle Overbay was going to hit for power

So, despite having the job security of an Iraqi suicide bomber, JP decides to throw games away in April this year to save the club a few hundred grand in 2010. You've got to admire the man's loyalty to an organization that will no longer be employing him at that point.

Or you pound your fists on the table and wonder how he could profess to having assembled a team that's built to win this year--when the Yankees are at their weakest since the early 1990s and the Rays a year from being a really serious contender--and not scratch tooth and nail for every possibly win.

Fuck you, JP. Fuck you.

If that's the way it's going to be, I suggest you do like Parkes. Enjoy the sport for what it is, get out to the ball game, stare at large-chested broads from the comfort of your dark shades, sign up for credit cards you don't want for a free t-shirt, and most importantly, have a good time.

There's Euro 2008 this summer, as well. As always, I'll be cheering on Les Bleus, mustering up the courage to ask the Mrs. if we can name our first born son Zinedine...

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

First, the apologies.

Perhaps I was overly quick to assume that Gibbons was rotating his few good players through rest days for no particularly good reason, but it came out yesterday that there's been a flu bug going through the clubhouse. Why this wasn't stated a few days ago is unclear, but anyway, perhaps Gibby should team up with Don Cherry to shill for Cold fX? Sorry, skip! I'll never doubt you again.

Last night's JaysTalk was pretty solid because there was actual stuff to talk to JP about rather than the typical nitpicking/Chicken Little routine of most callers. John Lott of the National Post provides a quick and dirty summary here. The good news is that Scott Rolen will most likely be activated tomorrow. The bad news is that JP really sees no rush to promote Adam Lind (hence the above pic) and will leave him to demolish AAA pitching while Shannon Stewart trolls for walks, interspersing them with the rare single, on the big club.

Yes, and true to my prediction yesterday, he did mention that Shannon Stewart is a "lifetime .300 hitter."

Now, JP has a weird thing about not wanting to make players feel like they're entitled to anything for fear that it might undermine their work ethic or competitive drive. I don't mind that. It is, however, blatantly obvious to all that Lind is "the guy", but I suppose we're going to have to wait for an injury for him to get his turn. If, as JP admits, the team is getting on base at a great clip but isn't scoring because of a low SLG%, you'd think there'd be all the more reason to callup a youngster with a 1.000 OPS in AAA. I find this massively disappointing.

Wilner has been one of the loudest voices in the draft Barry Bonds movement, so it's no surprise that he concludes that JP probably wants to sign him, but Godfrey and Ted Rogers/money are obstacles. Overbay's struggles were mentioned, but in his case--not Frank Thomas' of course--20 games is too small a sample size to jump to any conclusion. Mmmhmmm.

Jesse Litsch is not about to lose his job, according to Bastian. When Gibby blew up on him the other day it was kind of like a dad finding out his son has been smoking weed: he felt really let down, but he'll probably let things slide, because, you know, they're blood. And because everyone goes through that phase.

Blair reveals that the press in TO and TB, the players, and everyone aside from a less than sellout crowd thinks it's an awful idea to play regular season games at a spring training facility. It's actually kind of offensive, really. The Bosox and A's get to play in front of 50, 000 screaming Japanese fans in Tokyo, the Dodgers and Padres get to play the first MLB exhibition game in China, and we play in front of a crowd that's possibly 50% under the age of 10. Just a detour on the way to Space Mountain.

Blair also shares our concern for the precipitous decline in Lyle Overbay's power production.

Are the A's going to sign Frank Thomas or what? MLBTR says there's more than one team expressing interest. It would amount to a massive bitch slap to JP from his mentor Billy Beane if the Big Shit Disturber did indeed go back to Oakland.

On a related note, Marc Hulet at Fangraphs expects the Jays to promote Travis Snider aggressively. He figures JP wants to prove his drafting prowess to one and all, adding a second impact player drafted under his watch to the roster (Aaron Hill being the first). There's that Marcum guy, too, but interesting nevertheless.

ELSEWHERE:

* We were lucky to play the Tigers when we did, because now they're wringing the necks of the opposition like supper chickens.

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

As the Jays head to Tampa Bay to play the Rays in a 9500-seat minor league facility, perhaps it's time to ask whether Ted Rogers should rename his club in a similar rebranding exercise?

The Toronto Jays. The Toronto Js. The Js. Js. *. All gold! And have the club play at least one regular season series in empty, disused Canadian AAA stadiums from Ottawa to Vancouver to increase the national fanbase. Can't lose!

I have made some disparaging comments about the clever fucks who made outrageous predictions about the Rays finishing third in the AL East or winning 85+ games this year, but that doesn't mean I reject the notion that the club is on the cusp of real, impressive change in the very near future.

Although this is a franchise that hasn't given its "fans"--I use the term lightly seeing as the Rays have finished last in the AL for attendance every year since 2001--anything to cheer about during its 10+ year history, this might well end up their first .500 season ever. That in itself would be an accomplishment seeing as they've only once touched 70 wins.

Gone are the days of the ill-fated "murderer's row" experiment of Jose Canseco, Greg Vaughn, Vinnie Castilla and a bunch of other steroid-using sluggers who no longer had it. Gone too is just the egg salad sandwich rotten draft luck that saw blue chip all-world talents like Josh Hamilton and Elijah Dukes piss it all away for drugs or siring illegitimate children. (Now added to that list would be Rocco Baldelli, who is suffering from a mysterious illness that may well end his career.)

The Rays core of young position players in postively mouth-watering. BJ Upton, Evan Longoria will be under club control long-term. Carl Crawford might not, but he's around for this year and next. But the real indication of progress is that the Rays have started to effectively mix in appropriate veteran talent to compliment their youngsters. Carlos Pena and Aki Iwamura were great to good pickups, and cheap, too. Dioneer Navarro has been around the block a few times more than you'd expect from a 24-year-old, but he was acquired for nothing of value.

And they've got pitching now, which separates teams with great young position players and young teams that are actually going to improve as a unit (I'm looking squarely at you, 2000 Kansas City Royals). This is a divisional rival that earns my grudging respect, unlike the two Evil Empires and the train wreck that is the Orioles.

TB also gets credit for being the final resting place for the great career of Fred McGriff, one of the most underrated players--if not the most--of his generation.

The pitching matchups for the three-game set are as follows:

Litsch-Shields
Halladay-Hammel
McGowan-Sonnanstine

If you've learned anything about the Jays this year, I would hope that you know it's impossible to predict whether they'll win based on who fields the better starting pitcher. Doc was atrocious against the Rays last year, which I note for no particular reason.

This is a team that needs to get on a bit of a role to boost everyone's confidence after the Big Hurt debacle, and a week's worth of games against TB outside the unfriendly confines of Tropicana Field then in pretty Kauffman Stadium against the Royals would be the perfect time.

In the words of the Beatles, "Don't let me down."

Awesome news about Adam Lind! He went 2 for 4 for Syracuse last night and was well enough to play the field. Come save us little buddy! And Travis Snider gets called up to AA, going 1 for 5 in his debut. The plot thickens...

Instead of plagarizing directly from Jon Hale, I refer you to The Mockingbird for a concise update on Frank Thomas/Barry Bonds that covers all the bases. Both men are in the rear view mirror.

Richard Griffin writes that "Bonds wouldn't cure what ails the Jays", citing some ridiculous clap trap about how getting on base is bad. You now have definitive, objective, scientific truth that Barry Lamar Bonds is indeed EXACTLY the fix to cure what ails the Jays. I have to go shower after saying that.

ELSEWHERE:

* In Yankeeland, the rotation vs. bullpen debate for Joba Chamberlain remains unresolved. Debate? I meant toe-headed owner shouting at the club's level headed GM. It should be interesting to see if scoundrel Hank Steinbrenner can force Cashman to stretch Joba out early, regardless of how detrimental it would be to his health and future. It's kind of like of watching the rich kid chomping at the bit to wreck his shiny new toy.

* A-Rod to the DL? While the Bosox play excellent baseball and pull away from the pack, the Yankees suffer poor starting pitching and aches and pains to their aging veterans (Posada, Jeter, now A-Rod).

* Is Chase Utley the most imposing bat in baseball right now? Yes, yes he is. (Full disclosure, I'm a closet Phillies fan).

-- Johnny Was

City TV Cavalcade of Excellence in Sports Broadcasting

Forget the cautious enthusiasm of more responsible members of the local media and commentators like ESPN's Buster Olney. CityTV says we's gonna beat them Yankees and Red Saaacks this year and git into the playoffs! Yeeeeeeehooooooo!

After watching the 3-hour Jays ticket infomercial/game this afternoon, I've got a new goal to strive for in life: becoming a fat, old, upper middle class season ticket holder who knows little to nothing about the sport despite watching 81 home games every year and sounds completely vapid when a reporter sticks a mic in my face and asks a rhetorical question.

We knew it was going to be bad, but just how bad was left to be seen. If you'd like a running commentary on this glorified OHL broadcast from Rogers community TV, go here. Me, I would like to cut them some slack because a) it was just an early spring training game and b) it was their first kick at the can, but they really dropped the ball on some of the basics. Such as:

* Cutting away from half an inning of play (such as the top of the ninth...) for a fluff colour piece...

* Asking players groan-inducing questions like "would you rather wake up with no toes or no hair?" Well, I'd look silly with no hair, so I'm gonna have to say "no toes." Right. This isn't going to help make the shier players more media accessible

* Gord Martineau's "Yessiree Bob. [Pause]. Nice." homerun call...

* Generally not knowing what the fuck is going on, who's at bat, what the count is, etc., is kind of well...

* If City TV broadcasts are to be run out of the Jays ticketing department, they simply cannot be allowed to do regular season games. Ever. Just no, it crosses the line.

Some further thoughts of a random nature:

* Without a hat, BJ Ryan looks like a slick Miami nightclub owner. Who'd a thought?

* Travis Snider, who singled to the opposite field in his lone AB, looks like he's going to be a Destroyer of Worlds.

* The Russ Adams Experiment should be rapidly drawing to a close. He can't field any position, or hit for that matter, and he's 28 years old. Cut bait. Stringy Buck Coats (who homered and stole a base) is two years younger, has plus speed, good base-stealing skills, plays 5 positions (though he shouldn't ever play SS in the bigs), and has a bat that's as good as Rusty's and probably getting better (.303/.363/.435 line in AAA in '07). I'm not saying he's going to be Ryan Freel, but he's on a similar trajectory. Here's your 25th man for 2009.

* The results of our Shannon Stewart poll were inconclusive. We need more readers/votes, I guess. Tell your friends! And thanks for participating.

-- Johnny Was