Monday, September 15, 2008

Should the Jays "Longoria" Snider?

I was thinking this morning about how amazing Travis Snider is as a 20 year old. I'll admit that I did not want him up here this season in the majors. But in 38 at bats, he's exceeded my expectations. He's hitting a ridiculous 316/366/533 (140 OPS+). The strikeouts are pretty scary - 10 K's in 38 AB which would give him 144-145 in 550 at bats. So it couldn't hurt to give him just a little more time in AAA in my opinion, despite his early success.

But if and when the Jays do ultimately decide to make him a major leaguer, there's very little doubt at this point that he'll become a star. Whether it's as a RF, a LF, a 1B, or a DH, he's going to be one of, if not the best player on the team. So wouldn't it make sense to give him a long term contract, and make sure he's around for as long as possible?

That's when I started thinking about the deal Longoria got from the Rays. Another 06 draftee, Longoria was given a 6 year deal worth 17.5 million dollars, with team options for 3 years worth 7.5, 11, and 11.5 million. So including those numbers, it's a 9 year deal worth 47.5 million. An average value of 5.3 million per year.

Snider and Longoria had very similar numbers going through the minors - Longoria posted a 920 OPS in his brief stay in the minors, while Snider had an 888 OPS in the minors. Snider was 2 years younger, and only had faced high school competition, whereas Longoria had been through a couple of years of playing in college. So it seems more impressive that Snider hit the ground running, and did almost as well as a guy who faced tougher competition, while being YOUNGER than Longoria.

Now, the one thing in Longoria's favour is that he plays better defense at a more critical position. Not only that, he plays it very well - right now he's 7th for qualifiers in ZR, which is very impressive. Snider might end up only playing LF, 1B or DH, as he's currently blocked by Rios in RF for the forseeable future.

Of course there are risks to doing this deal - what if Snider turns out to be a bust? What if he gets injured? Well, you've only guaranteed him 6 years at 17.5 million, for an annual cost of 2.91 mil per season. There is a 3 million dollar buyout to avoid paying the other options, so at worst you pay 20.5 mil over 6 years to a guy who looked like a stud but couldn't deliver.

On the other hand, what if Snider becomes the superstar we expect him to be? In that case, as I've said earlier, you've locked him up for 9 years, at a ridiculously low rate (47.5 or so million). He wouldn't be a free agent till he's what, 30?

In order to beat teams like the Sox and the Yanks, the Jays are going to need to take risks. Signing Snider now (or whenever he becomes a fulltime player) to a deal like this would be a relatively small risk, with a very large reward. It would allow them to build a team around Snider, while ensuring their best player is under market value through his prime years.

There's no guarantee Snider's going to start in 2009 with the Jays. But if he is going to be a regular, the Jays need to look into trying to sign him to a "Longoria" type deal. There's no guarantee Snider would even accept it, but it's an option the Jays just can't ignore.

Twitchy.

4 comments:

ari said...

08:$0.5M
09:$0.55M
10:$0.95M
11:$2M
12:$4.5M
13:$6M

- Longoria's contract, through his arbitration years. I think it's important to report the actual figures, because it's even better than looking at it at a per year value - that doesn't give you the proper insight into how much he's costing the team each season. And that's very smart money to be committing to these type of players, when it earns you this -

14:$7.5M club option ($3M buyout)
15:$11M club option
16:$11.5M club option

So by guaranteeing Longoria only 17m over 6 years, they earn the right to pay Longoria 30m for his age 29,30, and 31 seasons. To put that in perspective, ARod will make 32m next year as a 33 year old.

This is something that absolutely must be done with Travis Snider.

eyebleaf said...

hard to argue with ari's comment. it's gotta be done.

Anonymous said...

The problem is that a great deal of this depends on Snider. Longoria might have been more of the exception than the rule. For example, Justin Upton said there's no way in heck he would sign for something like that. I would hazard to guess that most top end prospects don't go for that type of deal.

Jays2010 said...

I would definately do it and I think it very well may happen; I think the framework may happen during Spring Training and if Snider looks like he's going to stick then it will become official. Snider seems like the type of guy who would be amenable to such a deal (the Jays are very judicious in drafting "signable" players and I think it'll carry over for a guy who is only 2+ years removed from being drafted).

Yes it would be a risk - but so would not signing him and paying him the amount he would make by going year to year in arbitration. It's not even a question to me, I would do it without thinking twice.