The big disconnect

The Sun's Shi Davidi writes today that the Jays may indeed be looking at the possibility of a payroll reduction. To quote:

The global financial crisis and the loonie's steep drop versus the American dollar appear to have drastically changed things for general manager J.P. Ricciardi and his staff, as hints of a possible slight increase in payroll back when the season ended have given way to a much less rosy outlook.

"The economy is definitely having an effect on us, so maybe our spending has slowed down a little bit," Ricciardi said.

"I think a lot of things are still being finalized, so I don't know if we're going to be able to be as active as maybe we once thought. But we're still trying to sort it all out."

Well, isn't that a fine kettle of fish? Or is it? How many times now, have we been told in all sincerity that things were one way and then they turned out to be something else entirely? Remember how JP "liked his team and was going to pretty much stand pat" last off-season? The speaker here, for all his good and bad qualities, is a well-documented fountain of bullshit. (Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays courted Adam Dunn this winter - that's how much I believe what JP says publicly)

There's that, and then there's also this: Rogers (the company) made something like a billion dollars in the last year (per Stoeten last week at DJF). We are supposed to believe that a company overflowing with cash - not a little of it arising from sweetheart broadcasting deals with it's wholly-owned sports franchise - can't afford to even match last year's payroll? Again, that's bullshit by definition.

They may choose to take advantage of the financial crisis to pinch pennies - maybe - but don't be gullible enough to believe they can't afford it. The standard pessimism here is that they have to answer to stockholders who wouldn't like to see the Jays lose money. But the truth is that the Jays lose money, on paper, every year. the stockholders look at the big picture - the overall cooperation - and that makes a ton of money. Any person savvy enough to sweat the losses of a subsidiary unit is also savvy enough to understand the creative deals that benefit the broadcast units while maintaining the illusion that the baseball team loses money. And they are not the only ownership group that employs such creativity.

So before we speculate on what the ownership WILL decide to do, lets dispense with the fiction that they HAVE to cut payroll - they don't. As to whether or not they will, no one can know for sure. The Jays can be remarkably obtuse and are fairly prolific in the employment of the "say one thing and do the opposite" strategy. What we can say for sure is that the above quoted remarks mean next to nothing about what is actually going to happen.

My hunch is this: JP has two things going in his mind - first, listening to see if anyone offers to take a contract like Ryan's or Overbay's off his hands (for which the illusion of a limited payroll helps provide cover both with the fans and with the players) and second, hanging back until a lot of the big names settle and trying to address his needs on the cheap (for which the illusion of a limited payroll serves to dampen fan speculation about, for instance, chasing Manny).

An example: The Brewers would like to re-sign Sabathia and/or Sheets. If they did, pitching would not be a big issue with them. But if they lost out on both, then approaching them with an offer of young pitching for JJ Hardy becomes something they might be more inclined to listen to. That's a totally speculative scenario, mind you, but it conveys the idea.

From the GM's point of few, minimizing expectations under the cover of "bad economy - out of our hands" has to be much more helpful than being in on a lot of big names and coming away empty-handed. What's going to get JP more grief? Saying "We are players for Manny" and losing him, or saying "I don't think we can sign him" and then - SURPRISE! - he lands him?

All that said, there are basically three course which might be taken:

1. Kick up the payroll significantly and sign relatively major deals. You can speculate any number of variations here.

2. Stand pat - if the Jays did that their payroll would drop by some 15-20 million from last year.

3. Actively dump payroll - the Jays could deal Ryan and lose very little in the 'pen (assuming the health of the remaining pitchers); they could deal Overbay, move Lind to first, and sign a low-priced DH like Russel Branyan; I don't think they could - or should - move Rolen because the uncertainty surrounding his elbow would seriously limit the return you could get, plus whoever you acquired to play 3B is going to take up a considerable portion of the savings; they could ditch Frasor and Tallet via trade or non-tender. Theoretically you could drive the payroll down another $15 million or so with such moves. That would leave the Jays with a not-much-worse team for about $60-65 million. Of course, this assumes you find a taker for the whole amount on Ryan and Overbay.

I have said before, and maintain, that this team has decent potential for next year. We are, to be sure, somewhat at the mercy of what other teams do, much as the 2008 Twins came within a hair's breadth of making the playoffs only because the Indians and Twins unexpectedly failed to meet expectations. It would do the doom and gloom crowd well to remember that what happened to those two teams could easily happen to two AL East teams in 2009. To "write off" this season and ignore that potential is, in my opinion, sheer folly. I believe that Jays management is mindful of that reality and I seriously doubt that a big payroll cut is coming. Until and unless there is a formal announcement, I going to continue to assume the Jays have some money and some options. The disconnect between the corporate profits and the poor-mouthing is just too big for me to swallow.

~WillRain

Cito officially extended

Sportsnet is reporting that Gaston's officially been extended for 2 years. It was bound to happen eventually, but it's nice to know it's official.

The article states the Jays went 48-36 for a winning % of 571 since Cito's taken over. That's a 92 win pace, and would have put the Jays a few games back of the WC this year.

I guess this means JP is coming back next year, as it wouldn't have made much sense to sign the manager and fire the GM. The GM would want to pick his own manager, so it stands to reason JP will be back for 09.

I'm not going to always agree with Cito's decisions (I don't understand why he keeps his starters in so long), but overall he's done a pretty good with the team. He's made a tremendous impact on the starting lineup, which has been scoring nearly a run per game more than under the Gibbons regime. Not to mention the fact he's done a stellar job bridging the gap from AAA to the majors for prospects such as Adam Lind and Travis Snider. It makes me feel a lot more comfortable knowing Cito can handle the rooks, because the Jays should continue to bring up the next wave of top prospects (Cecil, Cooper, Arencibia, etc) over the next couple of years.

Welcome back for good, Cito. We can't wait to see what you'll do now that you're starting from Day 1.

Update: I'll include some of the players quotes, which weren't available when I first read the article:

"We've obviously played much better since he and his staff have been here," said centre fielder Vernon Wells. "It's good to know who we are going to have leading us into next year."

"There are some good things going on," said first baseman Lyle Overbay. "I'm excited, I want to see what he can do for a whole year.

Makes 2 of us, Lyle.

Twitchy.

Commence the Wailing and Gnashing of Teeth.

Well, we have it on good authority now! Uncle Dick has cleared it up for us. On Tuesday Richard Griffin wrote an article in which he assured us that the unsigned status of Cito Gaston was de facto evidence that JP Ricciardi's job status for 2009 was still in limbo:

On Aug.6, GM J.P. Ricciardi announced on his loose-cannon radio show that Gaston would return as manager in 2009, effectively removing any "interim" tag from his title. Yet, in the ensuing 41 days, nothing has happened in that regard. What gives?

The simple answer is that it was never Ricciardi's prerogative to make the Gaston announcement as long as his own status for '09 was still in doubt – which it is. Yes, the folks at the Rogers campus have a significant financial commitment to Ricciardi through 2010, but there is still active discussion from on high as to whether J.P. should be allowed to continue into Year 8 of the five-year plan.

Now, pay no mind to the fact that Uncle Dick is still deluding himself that there ever was a five year plan, he's a professional journalist and he's well connected and knows his stuff so if he says JP's status is still up in the air you can take that to the bank!

Eh? Hold on, wait a sec, the intern is telling me something....What's that? The HELL you say!

Okay, shit, late breaking news folks!

Our intrepid reporter has been at work again today. The ink stained scribe delivers to us the hottest news uncovered by his never-ending search for the truth:

The timing of the Gaston news conference, during rather than after the season, confirms what sources have whispered. Ricciardi's job as GM is safe for another year. If the Jays were going to replace Ricciardi, as had been under serious consideration, they would have waited until the new guy was in place. In the majors, the GM in most cases will make the announcement of his field manager.

So, there you have it - JP's status us not still up in the air! Oh . . .wait . . . hmmm. So...if "sources have whispered" JP was coming back then why did Griffin write ONLY YESTERDAY that his status was uncertain?

Couldn't be because his skills are failing him since we know he gets all his facts straight - just look at the five year plan! Ok, well, maybe bad example. Anyway, maybe it's just because the man is fucking obsessed? Honeslty, for all his flaws, I support JP, I think he's done more good than bad and I'm not the sort to hold out for the Practically Perfect GM. But if I thought he was the biggest train-wreck since Bill Bavasi, I would still be very tempted to hope he keeps the job just on the off chance that we'll get to see Uncle Dick's head explode when he's retained.

Thus the headline. From Griffin to Rotoworld all the way down to anonymous posters on BBS, the venom directed at JP on-line borders on that directed at GWB. It's pathological. (No, I don't mean EVERY criticism, many are quite reasonable). I can't say that I'm not a little amused that those who were so certain he would be gone have to suffer through another year. Call me petty.

~WillRain

Money to Burn!

Time for my second installment of truthiness regarding the good and bad of the potential end of the JP Ricciardi era.

One of the oft mentioned myths about JP is now he's struggling to succeed with "a almost $100 million payroll!!!!" as if that number exists in a vacuum and is arbitrarily a measure of "lots of money" just because it approaches that benchmark. However, the truth is, it is not "lots of money" at all when placed in context.

Let's add a little and see what we find.

This first chart is a look at the Jay's payroll in real numbers as compared to the rest of the league, and to the Yankees (who were the only other team in that span to be ranked #1 except for one year). What you see here is -
Year - Jays' Payroll - MLB rank - Yankees' Payroll - Jays as a % of Yankees

1992   $ 43,663,666       3     $ 35,966,834      121%
1993   $ 45,747,666       1     $ 41,305,000      111%
1994   $ 41,937,668       2     $ 44,785,334       94%
1995   $ 49,791,500       1     $ 46,657,016      107%
1996   $ 28,486,708      16     $ 52,189,370       55%
1997   $ 45,894,833       9     $ 59,148,877       76%
1998   $ 48,415,000      11     $ 63,159,898*      77%
1999   $ 48,165,333      14     $ 88,130,709       55%
2000   $ 46,363,332      21     $ 92,938,260       50%
2001   $ 76,895,999      10     $ 112,287,143      68%
2002   $ 76,864,333      11     $ 125,928,583      61%
2003   $ 51,269,000      21     $ 152,749,814      34%
2004   $ 50,017,000      21     $ 184,193,950      27%
2005   $ 45,719,500      25     $ 208,306,817      22%
2006   $ 71,915,000      16     $ 194,663,079      37%
2007   $ 81,942,800      16     $ 189,639,045      43%
2008   $ 97,793,900      13     $ 209,081,577      47%  

Note that the bolding indicates a different GM

If you notice the raw numbers here, it's obvious from the beginning that the Jays precentage of AYP (Annual Yankees Payroll) is never less than 50% during Ash's tenure and in 4 of the 7 years it was 68% or better. By contrast, during his tenure with the Jays Ricciardi never had a payroll as much as 50% of the Yanks except in his first year when he was under orders to slash payroll. Since then his highest mark is short of Ash's lowest mark.

Now, it's true that the Yanks stretch the ceiling of MLB payrolls, but if you look further you see that this year is the first time the Jays payroll has ranked higher than 16th in the majors, wheras Ash only had a budget lower than that once, and was often in the top half of the league.

But see, that's not the half of it.

I took an inflation calculator and normalized all the jays payrolls to 2007 dollars. That produced this table:

1992   $65,692,294.12
1993   $66,822,996.95
1994   $59,473,577.09
1995   $68,822,054.33
1996   $38,414,113.99
1997   $60,086,253.55
1998   $62,326,152.13
1999   $61,028,295.23
2000   $59,423,851.24
2001   $91,750,709.73
2002   $90,268,628.46
2003   $58,798,584.48
2004   $56,293,140.73
2005   $49,812,574.81
2006   $75,776,835.50
2007   $81,942,800.00

What do we have here? In inflation-adjusted 2007 dollars, JP's available cash (excepting the payroll slashing first year) did not exceed Ash's lowest budget (excepting 1996) until 2006. And even then, if you average Ash's six highest payrolls (out of seven years) you get around $68 million so JP's 2006 budget was up about 10% over Ash's average budget and his 2007 budget was up not quiet 20%.

Why is that important?

Because baseball economics far outpaces inflation.

In 1992 the average MLB salary was $1,084,408
In 2008 the average MLB salary is $2,739,761

Which is to say that the average MLB salary in 2007 was 256% of the average MLB salary in 1995, which is sharply higher than inflation (2007 dollar being 138% of the 1995 dollar).

So, to completely prove how much time I have on my hands, let's adjust those salaries for 2007 Baseball Dollars:

1995   $127,466,240
1996   $66,370,401
1997   $90,880,933
1998   $92,025,096
1999   $76,719,563
2000   $63,894,501
2001   $93,038,500
2002   $88,363,041
2003   $54,966,197
2004   $55,109,035
2005   $50,577,827
2006   $74,569,857
2007   $81,942,800

I'll let you draw your own conclusions about the relationship illustrated here. But clearly it reflects the previously stated reality that this is the third season of any real attempt to be competitive.

Now, the objections to the previous article included the point that a comparison to a GM who lost his job for poor performance is of limited value. That wasn't really valid there because the mantra was that JP's drafts were not as good as Ash's. In this case though, that's a valid point. Say Ash spent (in relative terms) as much or more money and failed is hardly a defense of JP. But it does go to the point that the the current payroll is, in relative terms, not high at all, either in relation to the league, or to inflation, or to baseball inflation. If JP has done an average job, and produced an average team, he's done so with average money.

So, when you make out your list of reasons Ricciardi needs to go, bypass the urge to write in "failed with a big payroll" . . . t'aint really so, McGee.

~WillRain

Truthiness and Revisionism

Since the prevailing wisdom in Jays commentary and fandom is that there is a high probability that JP Ricciardi will pay the price at the end of the year for the snake-bit season the team is enduring, I thought that I would, over the rest of this season and into the off-season, take a look at how JP compares to previous Jays GMs, as well as the some other general comparisons in an attempt to combat some of the negative mythology about JP’s work.

I want to say frankly up front that I am NOT trying to make a case for Ricciardi keeping his job. I have acknowledged in this space, and continue to accept, that regardless of whatever case might be made for his work, Ricciardi is probably going to have to be let go (short of a miracle playoff run). The reality is that a GM, in many ways like a Prime Minister, must not only make the right moves but enjoy the confidence of those he leads.

Between his unfortunate propensity for “incidents” (from Hudson’s pimp remark, to the Dunn Drama), his abrasive personality, and the fact that the Jays have been jinxed in the years when he had expected them to be serious contenders, JP seems to have lost the confidence of the vast majority of those who voice an opinion on the Jays. For that reason, if for no other, he’s probably going to have to walk the plank (hopefully to be replaced by Tony LaCava) and I don’t object to that.

I do find it very sad that the quality of a person’s work must be judged through the lens of personality issues - plop JP into the GM’s chair in Philadelphia or Boston or NY or Chicago and he’s just another guy - but it is what it is. So I’m NOT campaigning for his job. I just happen to be a stickler for truthiness. Let’s not develop a false mythology about how awful his work was just because we have been the victim of a lot of bad karma.

Be warned - I know that your typical blog post is brief and to the point, and I generally try to keep that in mind, but these articles will of necessity often be fairly lengthy, so if you are looking for a bite-sized bit of information, this is probably not for you.

Let me also mention this caveat: In all these articles in which I will refer to draft picks, I will - for the sake of brevity - only speak of those players who made a notable major league impact. It is not really relevant to the comparative draft skills of JP or Gordo that we remember to mention Dave Gassner or Dewon Day. Therefore, I intend to consider irrelevant any pitcher who did not post 250 major league IP, and any batter who did not register 250 major league at bats. In so doing I have excluded a ton of scrubs, and no one who really changes the analysis.

* * * * *

For the first installment of this series, I want to take a look at how JP compares to the late unlamented Gord Ash in terms of how their drafting had impacted the team they put on the field in their last year (again, assuming this is the JP’s last year).

We sit today at a point roughly half-way through JP’s seventh season. Gord Ash was fired after seven seasons. So it’s an easy thing to look at your Toronto Blue Jays v. 2001 and make a comparison. In 2001, Ash’s team gave at bats to four players who had been drafted during his tenure. All of them in their rookie year, none of them in the role of a starter (except when forced by injury). These four - Felipe Lopez, Vernon Wells, Ryan Freel, and Josh Phelps, combined for 307 at bats. Wells had gotten 90 at bats in previous seasons, Phelps had gotten one.

Other hitters drafted by Ash who had major league experience in 2001 (all in their first season, followed by extended work in the majors) included: Craig Wilson (dealt to Pittsburgh in the huge trade that netted us Dan Plesac and others best left unmentioned), Brent Abernathy (to T.B. for Steve Trachsel), Casey Blake (waived), Jay Gibbons (lost to Rule 5 draft) and Michael Young (infamously traded for Esteban Loaiza). Combined, all these hitters had logged 1565 at bats, virtually all of them in 2001.

On the pitching side of the ledger, the 2001 Jays gave innings to three players drafted by the Ash team - Roy Halladay (in his third partial season, and rebounding from the worst season in major league history by a guy with at least 10 starts), Billy Koch (also his third season), and Brandon Lyon (blazed through the minors to make the majors in his second full professional season). There was not a pitcher anywhere else in the majors drafted by Gord Ash in 2001.

Future major leaguers still in the minors in 2001 included these players:

Mark Hendrickson - 27 years old and at AAA Syracuse where he posted a 4.66 ERA and struck out only 33 in 73 IP.
Orlando Hudson - split the season between AA and AAA posting an OPS over .800 at both stops.
Alex Rios - who posted an OPS of .650 in low A ball.
Reed Johnson - posted an .834 OPS in AA
Dustin McGowan - Put up a 3.75 ERA in short season A ball, but with control issues.
Vinnie Chulk - split the year between High-A and AA, pitching well both places.
Gabe Gross - who had just been drafted.

It’s worth noting that Ash enjoyed the luxury of picking in the top 10 picks in the June draft three times. To summarize. As of the day he was fired, Gord Ash’s draft record stood like this:

12 major leaguers

~7 on the Jays
~3 traded
~2 lost for nothing
7 future major leaguers still in the minors.

Let’s compare that to JP’s 2008 edition of the Blue Jays. This team features only two hitters drafted by JP (though we note in passing the rise and fall of a third, Russ Adams) but both are starters. Aaron Hill alone has posted more at bats than the combined total of all the hitters drafted by Ash through 2001. All the hitters drafted by JP have combined for 3,098 major league at-bats as of this writing with Adam Lind likely to add another 200 or more to that total before the year is out even if Hill is done for the year.

And ALL of those came in a Blue Jays uniform.

On the pitching side of the ledger, there have been four notable major league pitchers drafted and developed under JP, only one of whom has logged innings in a different uniform. Shaun Marcum, Casey Janssen, and Jesse Litsch are still important members of the Blue Jays team (Janssen’s injury notwithstanding) and David Bush now plies his trade in Milwaukee. While there is presumably no Halladay in this bunch (how often does one draft a Roy Halladay?) their combined efforts as of this writing equal or surpass those of the three pitchers Ash counted on his roster at the end of 2001.

Here’s how their combined total compare:

2001: 34-34, 5.88 ERA, 611 IP, 634 H, 399 ER, 244 BB, 440 K, 101 Sv
2008: 43-41, 3.86 ERA, 729 IP, 720 H, 313 ER, 211 BB, 465 K, 7 Sv

With the obvious exception of saves, none of JP’s three having been the full time closer, there is no contest.

To summarize so far:

7 major leaguers - Six on the Jays, none traded for the likes of Esteban Loaiza and none lost for nothing.

Obviously, the nature of this comparison makes it impossible for us to identify future major leaguers in the minors right now but let’s look at some potential comparisons:

Hendrickson v. David Purcey - at the same age, Purcey is looking far better at AAA.

Hudson v. Scott Campbell - While Campbell clearly lacks Hudson’s defensive wizardry, he is also clearly a superior hitter.

Rios v. Eric Eiland - One year younger in age, Eiland has a comparable slugging percentage and a much higher OBP and seems to be a better base-runner.

Johnson v. Brian Jeroloman - admittedly not the same position, but still - two players likely destined for bench work, whose main calling card is exemplary defense while featuring limited offensive potential. The catcher is a year younger than Reed was in AA, and hits for less power but plays a position where less offense is expected.

McGowan v. ?? - not really a good comp for McGowan here because JP doesn’t draft high ceiling high school pitchers, so this will be sloppy. But let’s compare him to Marc Rzepczynski. He’s a couple of years older, and at Low A instead of short-season, but he’s also a Lefty with a run and a half lower ERA. Zep’s probably not gonna be McGowan, but who knew how McGowan would turn out at the end of 2001? In particular, who knew it would take him six subsequent seasons to establish himself?

Chulk v. Robert Ray - Both pitched well enough in High A to earn a promotion. Chulk was already a reliever and most think Ray projects to be. Chulk had pitched to better results to that point, though it’s difficult to compare a reliever to a starter.

Gross v. David Cooper - Cooper has not yet appeared in Dunedin but these are comparable in very early results.

Now, where in Ash’s minors is there an equivalent player to Travis Snider? JP Arencibia? Brett Cecil? Justin Jackson? Kevin Aherns? Where’s the highly regarded guy who hasn't been mentioned yet because he didn’t pan out?

Joe Lawrence? Compares to Curtis Thigpen at best.

Clayton Andrews? No better than Kyle Ginley

Matt Ford? I could name you five minor league LHP who have a chance to match his accomplishments.

Miguel Negron? Say hello to Gord’s Russ Adams. No, wait, Adams actually made it to the majors.

Brandon League? I sure hope he capitalizes on his promise but if he does, he’s ONE guy over against 3-5 top shelf JP draftees still unaccounted for. How many of the 15 prospects I mentioned by name will succeed in the majors? Time will tell. More than seven of them? I wouldn’t bet against it.

Point being, on draft results as compared against what we knew about Gord on the day he was fired - there is no comparison. JP smokes his ass. He’s got him on quality of pitching, on quality of hitting still with the Jays, he’s got him on total production to that point from all hitters, and he’s got him on the potential found in the farm system. Now, seven years later we know who is quality and who isn't among Gord Ash's draftees. We don't know yet how Snider or Cecil's career will turn out - or even Marcum's for that matter - but that's not a fair comparison. What is fair is taking what we can see on the day each man lost his job and comparing THAT. And on that basis - JP comes out looking pretty good compared to Gord.

...to be continued...

~WillRain

What to do?

Well, even the faintest of hopes for a resurrected season bit the dust in Seattle and even I am forced to concede that this season, one I was convinced was a return to the glory days, has inexplicably and unexplainably veered so throughly into the ditch that to continue to harbor hope is an exercise in masochism. Yes, it's possible we could play .650 ball from now to the end of the season and win 90 games. But I can't work up the passion to hope for it. That being the case, it's time to turn our thoughts to the second most fun activity in baseball - trade speculation.

I have always held the opinion that once you know you are out of it, it's time to think about what next year's roster is going to look like and sell off anyone who has value who is not a part of that vision. This has been, for me, the most frustrating part of the JP-era Jays is that between their summer-long tease and JP's passionate hopefulness, every July we are caught in a no-man's land on the fringe of contention where he can't bring himself to act.

I hope very much that in this, his probable last summer with that opportunity, he manages to cash in and bring us some value in return. Presented here, then, for your reading pleasure, is an attempt at an omnibus review of the market, the chips the Jays have to offer, and what potential return might be worth speculating about. Hopefully it will be comprehensible by the time I am done pulling together what is, in many ways, a very fluid set of circumstances.

Presumed sellers (a group which may grow): Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, San Diego, Colorado, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, Washington.

Presumed buyers (a group which may shrink): Boston, NY (both teams), Tampa Bay, Chicago (both teams), LA (both teams) Arizona, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Atlanta.

Mushy middle (either because of standing or money): Baltimore, Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland, Texas, Florida.

On the Jays' roster, I think we can agree that for various reasons, Wells, Rios, Hill, Lind, Halladay, McGowan, and Marcum are not going anywhere. Rolen and Ryan would take pretty huge offers, I think, but might be moved. Most everyone else on the major league roster could at least be talked about (though not to say none of them would have an important role in 2009).

But that said, for my money, here are the most obvious players that might be moved and my take on their situation.

1. Barajas and/or Zaun: I list this first before AJ because it seems to me there's an obvious deal here. It is widely reported that the Marlins are looking for a catcher. If I'm the GM, I don't rest until I sell them on taking one of these guys for Dallas McPhearson. Even if I have to add a John Parrish or some such to the deal to make them happy, to me it is beyond obvious that this needs to happen. True McPhearson has an injury plagued and inconsistent history and true, his numbers are in the hitter-friendly PCL but even so, as a cheap possibility at DH (to guard against injury), 1B, or even 3B if an irresistible Rolen deal comes along, I don't see how we can pass up the opportunity to generate our own version of what Carlos Pena did in Tampa last year or Milton Bradley in Texas.

I would try to make a deal for one of these guys now (give the Marlins their choice) and, if Robinson Diaz recovers in time float the other one later. Other teams who might be interested in a catcher include Boston and Oakland.

2. AJ Burnett: Please, all you droolers out there with your knee-jerk AJ bashing, just control your bowels on this one. Even in this, admittedly his worst year, he's only had four truly awful starts in 18 and that over against 11 very good ones. Any contender in need is going to see value in that. Of course, no one is going to move until CC Sabathia lands, but the persistent rumor is that may happen even before his next start.

Before we address what teams and what they have, lets be clear about this - once CC is off the market, Burnett is either the best or second best remaining available starter (depending on whether or not Bedard is actually available). given that the M's HAVE to redeem the package they sent to Baltimore, they will be asking a ton and that should make AJ the more desirable target, even with his baggage and current inconsistency. So don't listen to what the obsessed tell you, once Sabathia is dealt Burnett moves to center-stage.

As for potential landing places, let's get this off the table - if Milwaukee is indeed offering LaPorta in a deal for CC it's almost inconceivable to me that they won't get him...but on the off chance I'm wrong about that, I think we can all agree that trying to leverage LaPorta for AJ would be our first priority. so my remarks flow from the presumption that Milwaukee got Sabathia and the other buyers are left to compete for the scraps.

It has been said that the Jays would prefer a shortstop and it is clear that over the coming years (3-4) it is their area of greatest need. It has also been rightly observed that there is very little in the way of a match among established players. Someone suggested that if the Brewers fail on CC, that the Jays express interest in JJ Hardy and there is some merit there, but on the whole it can be safely stated that if we acquired a SS, it would be a guy who's in the high minors. So let's look at the remaining contenders and see what is out there:

Boston - I can't see why they would be anxious to win AJ but Lowrie would certainly be a great return.

NYY - There's not really a good match here, certainly no SS to be coveted. I can't see them being a factor for AJ.

Tampa Bay - It would be kind of odd, I think, for the Rays to make a play for Burnett but certainly if they did you have to try to get Reid Brigiac from them. He's not having the best year in the minors but he is widely considered to be a prime prospect.

Chicago WS - I don't think the White Sox are in the market for much and leat of all a pitcher.
LA Angels - This is not a team that needs a SP.

Arizona - SS Reynaldo Navarro was listed #9 on Baseball America's pre-season rankings.

LA Dodgers - You can't speculate about young Dodger's shortstops without starting with young Taiwanese Chin-Lung Hu. The Dodgers are said to actually be looking for a veteran SS. I don't know what the team is thinking in not giving Hu the job, but if he's available he's the one to ask.

St. Louis - The Cards have a SS prospect in Pete Kozma but he's not real close and they don't have the luxury of trading him, even though they, like Baltimore, enjoy the advantage of being a team that AJ might not opt out on if they give him a little signing bonus. Earlier in the season, some speculated that major league outfielder Chris Duncan might be available. If so, one could do worse.

Chicago Cubs - Obviously, if you are dealing with the Cubs you have to covet 3B Josh Vitters. Lefty SPs Rich Hill and Sean Marshall are also desirable but there's no SS to be found.

Milwaukee - Beyond the names already mentioned, AA wunderkind Alicdes Escobar is the obvious choice. A SS with great defense and a ridiculous OBP is something that would solve a lot of problems.

Philadelphia - Jason Donald, a SS in AA for the Phillies is not a high profile prospect but the 23 year old is hitting quite well in Reading. I’ve no idea how good his fielding is.

Atlanta - Brent Lillibridge would have been the obvious answer a year ago, but he's struggling this season.

NY Mets - Having cleaned out their best prospects to get Santana, I don't look for them to be a major player.

One might also make note of Baltimore, since they are one of two teams Burnett might opt to stay with, but they are not likely to match the offers of some of the higher profile contenders.


3. David Eckstein - Rumor has it the Dodgers want a veteran to take up the slack of the injured Rafael Furcal (and why they are afraid to use Hu I do not know) and Baltimore is said to be mulling the idea. I hesitate to speculate on what Eck might bring because, frankly, anything with any upside is a deal you make. i don't hate the man but he is a player of limited value.

4. Brian Tallet - I've heard Wilner say on occasion that the market for RP is marginal, but the rumor mills insist that pitchers like Ron Mahay are drawing a lot of interest as a lot of contenders are short on LHRP. I know that the Brewers have only one quality lefty in the pen, ditto the Rangers, Cardinals, Phillies, A's, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Marlins, Tigers, Cubs, O's and D'Backs.

Far be it for me to speculate on the return from such a large group, but notice how often the possibility exists for us to pad a Burnett deal in order to maximize our return.

5. Lyle Overbay - this one is somewhat predicated on the idea of acquiring some other good young hitter which makes it wise to clear Overbay out of the way. I include it mostly because there are a lot of Overbay-bashers out there. The problem is, none of the contenders are hurting for what Overbay brings to the table. I don't see a deal.

6. Jason Frasor - On the one hand, RHRP has been a minor weakness in our staff, but on the other, one can easily project League, Accardo, Wolfe and Janssen into 2009 and beyond and Frasor is likely to be gone before next season anyway. Some teams, like the Yankees, stand in great enough need that even a local whipping boy like Frasor has some value.

7. Matt Stairs - some have speculated about the Dodgers but I don’t see a team who needs him bad enough to gamble on having him there next year. I don’t see a deal.

8. Jesse Litsch - trading AJ makes it more problematic to deal Litsch even under the rubric of “sell high” but give the lack of quality SP on the market and the number of contenders in need, it’d be foolish to not listen to offers if you could get some.

9. Brad Wilkerson/Shannon Stewart - don’t fool yourself, Stewart has no value because even a team that wants him knows we have no room. Wilkerson might have the most very marginal of value....as in you might get a little case for him but nothing of interest to a fan.

~WillRain

Quick Hits

There's too much news around Jays land for it to go unremarked upon here, at least in brief. What follows is more an attempt to give you an omnibus of the developments, rumors, and speculations out there than to expound on them (albeit you know I can't entirely refrain from comment).

Item - Shaun Marcum has been placed in the 15-day DL, will miss at least two starts and visit Dr. Andrews. Anyone NOT in a state of terror about this is not a Jays fan. In the short term, the impact is minimal. There are so many off days between now and the break that we will only need a fifth starter once before the Yankees series that closes out the first half. That's probably going to be John Parrish this time. Long term, say all the prayers you know that this is mild and not the harbinger of Tommy John surgery.

Item - AJ Burnett's name keeps coming up in connection with the Phillies. The decision here, from their perspective, likely turns on whether it is best to act swiftly and get more starts, or wait and get in on the presumed Sabathia sweepstakes. The Phillies don't have stellar prospects but Greg Golson and Kyle Drabek have some appeal.

Item - JP apologized to the Reds and Adam Dunn for his brainless moment Wednesday night. Dunn was not forgiving but Jocketty noted that JP had mentioned to him that he had just found out he had to fire the manager and half the coaching staff. While the flub is indefensible, I for one am inclined to sympathize with a man who - while under astounding stress - said something stupid. Perhaps it is easy to dismiss JP as a cold calculating bastard but maybe, just MAYBE, the guy really did feel crushed by the idea that he had to put four men he had hired, at least one of whom was a long time close friend, on the unemployment line. Maybe he's human.

Item - Adam Lind was called up when Marcum hit the DL. This is great news provided he gets to play. Cito was, back in the day, notorious for favoring veterans but I do not think for a minute that Lind, given how he has been handled before, was called up to sit. In fact, I would say he'll play every single day and this will be because either (a) we all know that the odds of contending are getting so long there's no point in the pretense; or (b) he's going to be featured in hopes he rips up major league pitching and makes himself a valuable chip for - presumably - Jason Bay. In any case, we can all agree that the greatest crime of all would be to sit him in the majors while Wilkerson got to play.

Item - Uncle Dick speculates that JP is on very very thin ice and cites the fact that Cito is exactly the sort of move JP would not have made (which may well be true but not for the reasons Griff cites) and smells of Godfrey (which is hardly news) - but also because, so he claims, Godfrey was incensed by the Dunn Incident.

Item - Doc was said to be "day to day" after the liner off his head, but the initial report is that he is good to go for his next start. If he had had an Aaron Hill-like reaction then there could be no doubt that the team is in free-fall for the foreseeable future. It is, IMO, beyond bizzare that this runaway train of losses is compounded by so much other bad news.

Item - last report says Hill, btw, is still out indefinitely. Safe to say until at least the break. Blair reports the concussion specialist told the team he should do nothing baseball related for at least two weeks.

Item - Mench is out and Brandon League is recalled. Obvious moves, not worth in depth comments.

~WillRain

The Roundup Jr.

As Johnny mentioned earlier, he's gonna be away for the next little bit, so I'm going to try my hand at doing the Roundup.

I talked about last night's game in my latest post, but what I didn't mention is that Vernon Wells is doing the impossible - ever since he's come back from his injury, he's been playing up to his contract. It's only been 16 at bats, but the franchise player has 7 hits in his past 16 AB's for a 438 BA. Funny enough, his OBP is below his BA, at 412, while his slugging is an epic 875. He's making up for lost time, and I can't imagine where we would have been without him the past week. He's been in the middle of seemingly ever run scoring opportunity, and that's the way it should be.

As I mentioned in the comments in the same post, Wilkerson is heating up a bit. But as John Brattain points out, the Jays are essentially dead last in OPS in LF & DH:

"It’s not often league average would represent such an upgrade at not one, but two positions. In both cases you’re not looking for a decathlete—just two guys who can hit at league-average levels, one of whom is mobile enough not to require a wheelchair in the near future. The Toronto Blue Jays are literally wasting two lineups slots that are traditionally used to provide offense"

It's the sad truth. The Jays have the worst LF/DH combo in the league, and these are the spots you need your best two offensive players. The Jays are pretty strong up the middle in Wells & Hill, and if they could combine their strength up the middle with quality players at offensive minded positions like LF & DH, the offense could prove to be above average. Even with league-average players as Brattain suggests, the Jays would be a better team. Even though Wilkerson is heating up, he's not a solution.

Yesterday the Jays signed their first round pick, David Cooper, according to bluejays.com. To be honest, I'm somewhat on the fence for this pick. I would have prefered SS Anthony HeWitt (24th to the Phils), who's a 5 tool high risk high reward player. The other player I wanted was SP Christian Friedrich, who went 25th to the Rockies. I don't know much about Cooper, but I don't like the idea of drafting a 1B who isn't a Mark Teixeira type bat. However, I do hope that he succeeds and proves that he was worthy of the first round pick.

This afternoon the Jays face off against the M's in the final game of the series, and it has the potential for being a spectacular pitching duel - and not just because neither club can hit! Felix Hernandez faces off against Shaun Marcum @ 12:37 PM. Both Felix and Marcum have pitched better than their record suggests (4-5 and 5-3 respectively), although Felix's 1.38 WHIP has got to be a little troublesome for the M's. It's hard to remember sometimes that the perennial breakout candidate is only 22 years old, but he hasn't improved much over last year. His BAA is better than last year, but the control is significantly worse.

Elsewhere:

Rough day for the Braves - Glavine goes on the dl with a left elbow strain, and he may not be back anytime soon.

“The injury concerns me quite a bit,” Glavine said. “It’s been hurting me for over a month and it’s not getting any better. I think only one other time in my career, I’ve had an issue with my elbow.”

Definetly not what the Braves want to hear with Smoltz already out.

The Tigers pull a Halladay on Dontrelle Willis by optioning him down to class A in the hopes that he can figure it out. Dumbrowski is a good GM, but signing Willis to a 30 million dollar deal before he'd thrown a pitch is going to come back to haunt him. Willis hasn't been the same since his 2005 season, where he lost in the voting of the Cy Young award to Chris Carpenter.

Ken Rosenthal chimes in with a theory on Dontrelle's struggles.


"One theory circulating among the Tigers is that left-hander Dontrelle Willis is much more muscular than he was during his 22-win season in 2005, making it much more difficult for him to repeat his mechanics. Willis requires great flexibility to achieve the contortion in his delivery; he might need to work with a strength and conditioning coach to regain the suppleness he once had."

Makes sense, but I have a different theory. Willis was a monster between ages 20-22, both in the minors and the majors. In the minors, his career high for innings thrown in a year was 157 2/3 as a 20 year old over multiple levels. As a 21 year old in both the minors & the majors, he threw 197 innings that year. He also pitched in the playoffs, for a total of 12 2/3 innings. Add that to what he threw in the regular season, and you're looking at 209 2/3 innings pitched as a 21 year old. That's an increase of 52 innings over his previous career high at age 21. The generally accepted limit for increasing a young pitchers workload is 30 innings. Then, at age 22, he threw 197 innings. Not bad, and I can't complain. But at age 23, in his almost-Cy season, he threw 236 1/3 innings. 20-30 years ago, I don't think anybody would have had an issue with him throwing that many innings. But in the age of pitch counts and innings restrictions to have your 23 year old ace throw 236 innings? That's almost criminal, and I think the high innings put on young Dontrelle's arm effectively Gustavo Chacined his career.

With my theory, there's essentially no chance the move to class A helps Willis. You kinda hope he finds his way again, cause he seems like a good role model for both African Americans & baseball itself.

Twitchy.

Condolences Part 2

In my rush to point out how sad it was that Benitez would be leaving us, I forgot to add the most important part of that story. On June 5th, Brian Wolfe was taken off the D/L and optioned back to AAA. On June 7th, 2 days after being optioned to AAA, he was brought back to the majors, and Benitez was DFA.

Obviously the walk off HR played a huge part in Benitez being DFA, but what it shows is a lack of managerial competency. An option year of Brian Wolfe was essentially wasted because they couldn't make room for him for one day, and then the next day he's brought up because the incompetent reliever who had his spot went from having some to no value in one day.

The Jays may never need to use Wolfe's option years again. But next year if the Jays need to option Wolfe down, and he's out of options, then he'll have to clear waivers (note: I'm not sure how many option years he has left). And I would hate to lose Brian Wolfe simply because an option year was wasted like this. The fact that one of his option years was wasted for essentially one day just shows a lack of foresight on Riccardi's part.

What should have happened? Benitez still had a respectable 5-6 innings to his credit before his implosion and future status as the latest DFA-Jay. Some team could have sent a minor prospect for him. And even if nobody was willing to give a prospect, you might as well have just DFA Benitez then and brought up Wolfe so that an option year wasn't wasted. But optioning him down for essentially 2 days, and then DFA-ing his replacement after a bad game just boggles the mind.

Twitch.

Wilkerson? Srsly?

What's the thinking here? Collect every available guy who hasn't been better than marginal since 2004? This is going to address the teams offensive issues?

THIS?

A published report suggests that the latest has-been to suit up for the Jays is Brad Wilkerson for whom JP has apparently long had a creepy fetish. Look, if we are going to live in the past why don't we go back to the 80's when the music and Tony Fernandez were both great?

Suggestions seem to be that JP does not want to give up an "asset" to improve the team. Well, laying aside the fact that the team doesn't drastically NEED improvement from new players (it needs those currently here to find a way to break the voodoo curse on the bats), the simple fact is that guys who are out there for free are free for a reason!

The truth is that the Jays are going to have to be willing to deal, AT LEAST, a Tallett or a Frasor or a Thigpen if they are going to add even marginal help...and I'm talking here about guys like Kevin Mench would COULD play an important if limited role here.

Wilkerson? Hell I'd rather have had the freely available (until yesterday) Jason Botts than Wilkerson and I'm not stuck on Botts. There are guys out there, players teams can spare, teams who could use a good reliable bullpen arm. Instead we have our own hot-prospect-with-nothing-left-to-prove-in-AAA blocked now by not one but TWO marginal outfielders who haven't been difference makers in over three years.

Those who know me know I'm not a JP basher but he can be damn frustrating sometimes.

~WillRain

They figured it out!

Alright, so I'm still pissed that Gibbons and crew decided that Lind shouldn't start, though Stewart did have a pretty good game. Part of it was the fact that Nick Swisher isn't a real CF, and misplayed everything hit to him, but I'll give Stew credit for hustling and getting some key hits.

On that note, and not to steal Johnny's roundup - I couldn't resist this early bit of good news from the blue jays official site:

McDonald's move from the bench to short was to serve as a late-inning defensive replacement for David Eckstein. Gibbons had been reluctant to use McDonald instead of Eckstein in the late innings of close games this season, but that has suddenly changed.

"He may be the best defensive shortstop in the game," Gibbons said about McDonald. "If he was just very good, we probably wouldn't do it, but with what he can do out there -- take away runs -- it's the right thing to do.

"By no means is it a reflection on the other guy."

I gotta say, I'm pretty proud of Gibbons for changing his mind. A week ago on Jays Talk, JP said this wasn't going to happen. So it sounds like Gibbons found his Cahones, and is planning on using McDonald as a defensive replacement. Earlier I wrote a letter to JP explaining how important this was, so I'm feeling pretty ballin now that Gibbons has come to his senses and plans on using McDonald in the later innings.

Mac's the best defensive SS in the game, and when we have a lead he's the most important guy on the field. This next part is from the original Blue Jays article:

Also on Monday, Gibbons moved Eckstein down into the lineup's ninth slot -- a switch that seems to play into the new line of thinking. If McDonald enters late in a game, he can slide into the No. 9 spot, where he typically hits in the order. Gibbons said making the mid-game switch might depend on how soon Eckstein is due to bat.

"It depends on where Eck is in the lineup," Gibbons said. "If he's still coming to the plate, we probably won't [play McDonald] until the ninth. If he's out of the way, we may do it in the eighth. Who knows?"

So there's no chance they'll do it when Eck has a potential AB left, but for the most part they'll bring him in when they have a lead, as they should. Can't be too angry with that, but in a one run game starting in the 7th inning or later, I think Mac's defensive value is greater than Eck's offensive output. But it's pretty hard to complain about them realizing how stupid it was to use him as a pinch runner...

When we had big Frank here," said Gibbons, referring to Frank Thomas, who was released by the club on April 20, "we also needed pinch runners -- one guy for him and another guy for maybe the catcher. Now, we don't really need that as much."

I don't know about you guys, but this quote just cracked me up. The Jays didn't spend 3 million dollars to make McDonald a pinch runner - and if they did, why didn't they trade or sign someone who's sole purpose is to steal bases and run really fast? I guess this means from now on that Lind or Scutaro are going to be pinch runners in the future (my bet's on Lind being the primary PR). I think that's an excellent use of Lind's service time. You know, he'll learn how to run around the bases, which is pretty important to know. I bet he's forgotten how to do that since he hasn't really been on base much in his last 20 plate appearances. So guaranteeing him a chance to be on the bases by having him pinch run for Zaun instead of watching him fail by trying to get on via a hit will allow him to continue his development by running around the bases, an extremely important skill. It makes so much sense now why we should let Stewart go 0-4 in LF while providing equally shitty defense!

Wow, I totally lost my train of thought after that...so yeah, great move to bring in McDonald, and I'm still pretty pissed that the Jays gave up on Lind after 20 AB. That would have been like giving up on McGowan last year after 2 starts. And I mean, giving McGowan an opportunity to figure it out on the major league level didn't pay off in the long run....

No wonder Lind pressures himself so much. They claim that he has the starting job, and they'll be behind him whatever they do. But when he doesn't hit 367 or whatever it was when he was in AAA, they put him on the bench and essentially tell him "we have no faith in you, kid". It took McGowan till his 5th start to start producing (the fourth being the famed May 23 start where Zaun & Gibbons called him out for not using the Curve), and there was no talk of taking McGowan out, bad as he was. Even if there was, it was foolish, because it was obvious the kid just needed to adjust. So why are we taking Lind out of games before he has a chance to prove himself? It took McGowan essentially from his May 3rd start to his May 28th start before we had any results - it took Lind from April 26th to May 4th to determine that Lind is useless. But I'm sure playing 2 games in a row followed by an offday over a week and a half is enough time to prove oneself in the majors.

Twitchy.

An open letter to JP Ricciardi

Dear Mr. Ricciardi,

I am a loyal Jays fan, who wants nothing more than a competitive team, one which has a shot at playing October baseball, and not the one game that results of bad scheduling on the part of MLB. So as a fan I was hanging on to every word you said last night on the Fan 590, until you dropped this line which absolutely crushed me.

Last night, you said something to the effect of "David Eckstein is a better player over 162 games, and will hold up better than McDonald. He's a better SS (Eckstein), and he'll be in games during the later innings because of this".

There are a couple of issues I have with this statement, so I'll just throw them all out there, in the hopes that you will rectify the situation.

First off all, over the past 2 years Eckstein has started 112 and 119 games. So he's not exactly a symbol of health or durability. Which is all the more reason to give him more rest, especially when we're winning and have a defensive caddy in McDonald.

Remember in 05/06 when Cat was the LF, and we'd bring in Johnson for defense? Or even replacing Adams or all the other hacks at SS with John McDonald? Why won't you do that now? It's essentially the same situation with McDonald replacing Eckstein for defensive purposes. I know last night you said "Eckstein is a better player", but that's irrelevant to the fact that in the 7-8-9 innings, with a lead, that defense plays a bigger role in the game. With shortstop being the most critical defensive position in the game, it is a criminal misuse of an asset to leave McDonald out of those games.

That's not entirely true - you did approve of him being used as a pinch runner for Stairs. However, this was also a big mistake, one I'm disappointed you defended. You see, Stewart was on the bench too, and he would have made a much better pinch runner. Had the game continued, he would also have been a bigger threat than McDonald with the bat, in the DH role.

The other issue is that with McDonald out, and only Stewart left on the bench, if someone had gotten injured at catcher, or in the infield, Stewart would have had to fill in. Stewart cannot play these positions, and would have led to us losing the game even sooner. However, McDonald can be an emergency catcher, a key point with Zaun out and Barajas in as his replacement. He could also play any position on the IF, and play an adequate LF if neccessary. So it was a poor move by Gibbons to do this, and a worse choice for you to defend it.

Again, it is critical that McDonald plays SS in close and late situations. As you're well aware, this team struggles when it is close and late. In a close and late situation the two most important roles are played by the bullpen and the defense. The bullpen is doing pretty well, so the problem must logically be the defense. Your reponse was that "Not having McDonald in hasn't hurt us yet", but I don't believe that's the case. Earlier in the year, during an AJ Burnett start, Eckstein made a key fielding error which led to a loss. Had John McDonald been in, it's pretty safe to say that play is made cleanly, and we have a chance to win the game. In addition, over the past two days it's highly likely McDonald would have stopped, or gotten an out on balls hit up the middle that led to walk off hits by the Red Sox. Maybe he doesn't get an out, but he keeps the ball in the infield, something that Eckstein failed too do.

By putting in McDonald, you ensure that more outs are created with less pitches, which also protects the pitchers from being "burnt out" later on in the year. Every additional hit means 3-5 extra pitches have to be thrown per hitter, and it adds up over both a game and a long season.

If my anecdotes do not persuade you, maybe this will: David Eckstein has a zone rating of 882 this year - while that's second in the majors for qualifying SS, it is well below John McDonald's ZR of 941.

I understand you don't want to hurt Eckstein's feelings by bringing in McDonald during the later stages of the game. I hear that. But you and the media have tirelessly argued Eckstein is a team player - willing to do whatever he can to help the team win. Well, the team would be in a better position to win games if John McDonald is playing in the later stages of the game, such as the 7-8-9 innings when the Jays are winning, or in a tie ball game. For example, if Eckstein bats in the top of the 7th, he's highly unlikely to bat until the 10th inning. So you can essentially ignore the offensive contributions, and focus solely on the defensive contributions.

In addition to having significantly greater range and mobility to both his right and his left, John McDonald possesses an incredibly strong and accurate arm. He is a much smarter, and quite frankly a better defender. In a critical situation, McDonald is the most important player on this team because of his defensive abilities. To not have McDonald at SS in the later innings runs contrary to your arguments that you want to not only put the best team on the field (literally), but it also goes against your arguments of giving the team the best opportunity to win.

In addition to this, McDonald is actually a better hitter vs left handed pitching, so combined with his defensive advantage it would be wise to essentially platoon McDonald & Eckstein. Again, I know it'll hurt Eckstein's pride, but if he's the team player you say it is, he won't have a problem with it.

In closing, I want to thank you for reading this Mr. Riccardi. I feel that it would be in the best interests of the team to use McDonald in his proper role. You payed him around 3.8 million dollars to be a defensive specialist - not a pinch runner. Eckstein will understand that a defensive specialist should be brought in when defense, and not offense, is more important. The next time this team is winning a close game, I hope that John McDonald will be there at SS to ensure the victory.

Twitchy.

The Josh Towers Thesis

Jay K., a frequent commentator around these parts, is an old associate of mine with a rabid enthusiasm for wiffleball and an unquenchable thirst for Busch tall boys. Every time he reads a new installment of Checkin' in With Josh at DJF we end up reminiscing over MSN Messenger about simpler times-- specifically 2006, aka The Summer of Lakeport--when it was clear to all and sundry just what was wrong with the Jays (Josh Towers) and want was needed to make them better (the public execution by firing squad of Josh Towers).

In his own words, Jay reflects on happier times:

Yeah, I miss the days in the way back file where we had a direction for our blind rage. Every fifth day that Shit Leopard went out there and wore his spots with pride.

Damn straight.

Just to refresh your memory, JT went 2-10 with an 8.42 ERA in a season that saw the Jays win 87 games and finish 8 back of the Tigers for the Wild Card. His constant, specultacular suckage was pretty much the exact margin separating a very good team from a playoff berth, making him a wonderful scapegoat for more than a decade's worth of frustration with the Jays and life in general. It was simple being a diehard fan back then because it was all so obvious. We needed him to make sense of the world just as the happy denizens of George Orwell's 1984 needed to work themselves up into a Two Minute Hate when the government showed them images of Emmanuel Goldstein. Frankly, I kind of miss the guy.

These days there's really no decent explanation as to why a collection of good to excellent pitchers and a lineup with enough average to very good hitters just can't seem to win. Some of you want to blame Eckstein, but he's come exactly as advertised. Dislike him or no, we got the man JP paid for, and yes, J-Mac should be his defensive caddy without a doubt. Shannon Stewart? His suckage has been noteworthy, but he's now no more than a platoon DH who should be occassionaly seen but not heard over the rest of the summer. Ditto Marco Scutaro. Vernon Wells? There's a growing movement to label him the 2008 scapegoat, but he could very easily have a hot week and silence the naysayers. Temporarily. There's just no single player on the current roster half as detrimental to the club's success as JT was back in '06. And that confuses the hell out us, which is the core of the Josh Towers Thesis.

Regardless of what happens tonight in Boston, there's no denying that the first month of the season has been an unmitigated disaster. The rational side of my brain wants to agree with those who argue that it would be silly to chuck in the towel at 4.5 games back with 5 months left to play. Yet the emotional side that says things clearly aren't working and heads must roll is winning out. I've been reflecting on the state of the franchise (and daydreaming about boobies, as per the norm) for much of the day and have come to the conclusion that if JP doesn't want Gibby to be the scapegoat for the team's failures to date--which I think is honourable of him-- then both men should go sooner rather than later.

There's nothing particularly wrong with either in their respective roles, it's just that they're not good enough to succeed in this environment. Both have learned much in their time here, but they haven't learned it fast enough. I've sung JP's praises before: he's excellent at identifying scrap heap talent and getting ML production from it (Zaun, Cat, for a time, Towers), he's skinned a few GMs in one-sided trades (getting Overbay and Accardo most notably), and stuck with slumping young prospects (Rios, McGowan) who went on to become elite talents after quite a few other so-called experts wanted to run them out of town.

But he's made a good number of mistakes, too. There's no way he should've run the current payroll up so close his $100 million ceiling if the consequence was running the risk of being locked into a series of bad baseball decisions. The cheapo move to hold Adam Lind, a superior player to Shannon Stewart in every respect, back in AAA for a week to save Super 2 money in 2010 was partly responsible for the horrid week the Jays just had. Going north with Stewart over Reed Johnson to save cash was also a lamentable move.

JP's had to cheap out and make bad baseball decision because of some ill-thought out deals he made in the past. The $126 million Vernon Wells contract may have been dictated to him by Paul Godfrey and the marketing department, but JP should've had the courage to argue tooth and nail against it. He knew well that Rios could have been shifted to centre and a cheap corner OF or platoon could've brought a similar level of production at a fraction of the cost, but signed off on a reckless contract nevertheless. (Any contract worth more than $100 million is reckless in my mind). We should've let V-Dub walk, or traded him on a high after his great 2006. Going multiyear on a rapidly decling Frank Thomas was obviously a similarly bad move, as many predicted at the time he was signed. Even Scott Downs could've and should've been traded in the offseason when he was at peak value rather than given a 3-year $10-million extension. Who has four lefties in the pen, all capable of handing higher leverage innings?

Is this enough to warrant his firing under normal circumstances? Hell no. But things are just going so horribly wrong at present that we might as well make a change for changes sake even if what comes next isn't necessarily a sure thing to be any better.

It's not you JP and Gibby, it's us.

This post is dedicated to Jay and Lakeport breweries, both of whom were integral parts of my oh so very drunken summer of 2006.

-- Johnny Was

Breaking News: Marco Scutaro not Caucasian!

I know that some small-minded people feel the need to rip on Italians for a long list of reasons, but Ryan Pyette (note to self: sounds French...) of the Sun counts Marco Scutaro* as one of 6 non-white Jays currently on the roster. (Ironically, a Google image search reveals that he also may in fact be an adulteror because that young lady of the evening is certainly not his wife.) I guess we can assume that Pyete concurs with the general thrust of Dennis Hopper's argument with mob boss Christopher Walken in Quentin Tarantino's True Romance.

Wait, why are we talking about the Jays and race issues? Geoff Baker blew town with a suitcase full of White Jays conspiracy theories a couple of years ago to cover the Mariners...

You know, we were all thinking that JP had taken lemons and made lemonade of the Frank Thomas situation. Those who really know the intricacies of the personalities and economics behind The Events of last weekend would be quite impressed that major dollars were saved whilst extracting public comments from the Big Hurt that he has no ill-will towards the organization at the same time.

That was some seriously good ass damage control.

And then, right after releasing one of the biggest African-American stars of the past two decades, JP decides to ad-lib about how the game needs to attract more young urban kids to the sport.

The Sun quotes a recent study that shows "The percentage of black major leaguers dropped to 8.2% (based on 2007 40-man rosters), the lowest total in 20 years." Although these numbers reflect the general demographic trends that show African-Americans make up 12.7% of the total U.S. population, this is still a record low for black participation. No result of a Gentleman's Agreement, however; the MLB is now roughly 40% non-white, which is almost a record high.

Back to Scutaro. I guess Pyette can be excused for not knowing that Italians are in fact white because JP got the conversational ball rolling in the wrong direction.

"When I was growing up, Willie Mays was still playing. Hank Aaron, Willie McCovey -- they were all still playing," Ricciardi said.

"Who are the great black players now? There's A-Rod (Alex Rodriguez). Baseball always thought it would be king here, and it's still king in places like Puerto Rico and Venezuela, but it's not king here anymore. We have to do a better job at it."

A-Rod is black? I think you meant "coloured", JP. No, "of colour." No, bi-racial. No, American Hero. That's the one.

"You can't look at whether a player's white or black," Ricciardi said. "If we looked at players based on racial lines, that would be going back to the pre-Jackie Robinson era and that's not somewhere we want to go.

"I don't care if I have nine green guys out there. I just want them to be able to play."

It would be nice if the Jays did ramp up their Venusian scouting arm so we could grab a few of those uber-talented little green buggers.

Anyone in a position of influence or responsbility should never, ever talk about issues of race. You can only end up looking silly, especially, say, after just releasing a very angry, hulking (former) African American superstar. This, of course, doesn't apply to me. I've got a nice little "accusations of racism get out of jail free card" in the form of a non-white wife.

And for the record, I'm down with your people, whoever they may be.

-- Johnny Was

* For the record, Scutaro's Wikipedia page lists him as half-Spanish, half-Italian, and all heart.

Thomas Mad, Thomas Released

I've been pretty busy lately, and I'll admit I haven't been following much Jays news. Ok, I knew Thomas was pretty pissed, but imagine my surprise today at work when I find Thomas has been released.

There's really nothing I can add to the situation that hasn't already been said. But I wouldn't be doing my duty (haha) if I didn't at least weigh in on the situation. So with that in mind....

Thomas' bat speed may have declined. I don't know that for sure - maybe it did, maybe it didn't. That isn't the issue to me. I think he could have eventually hit his way out of it, as he has the past few years. Yesterday, I thought benching him was a brilliant tactic to light a fire under the slugger's bulky ass. Piss him off enough that he'll get aggressive, and crush the first pitch he sees into the CF windows.

What I do know, is that Thomas' tendencies, and overall game plan prevented him from coming out of a slump. I love how he's still got terrific discipline, an elite batting eye, capable of taking a ton of pitches and getting into hitters counts. The problem, is that pitchers were exploiting his patience by getting ahead in the count knowing he would not attack the first pitch. The Texas game, for example, where Padilla threw 2 fastballs down the middle, as Frank took, being patient. Then he strikes out on one out of the zone, in a pitchers count.

You see, when you're in a slump, taking pitches is the worst possible outcome. Teams aren't afraid of you, and get ahead in the count. Once this happens, you're down 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, and you feel like the at bat is over. By not being aggressive, and getting behind in the count, Thomas was always hitting in a brutal situation, where he'd never get a pitch to hit.

Let me say that I agree 100% with benching a player who isn't performing. The message it sent was play or rot on the bench, and it's a wake up call to a team that needed one. So kudos on JP & Gibbons for having the cohones to do it.

But releasing Thomas? I don't know. I just don't know yet. It helps the defense if Lind is called up to play LF. Bad as he may be, he's better than Stairs. It helps the bench - when Thomas is off we're essentially down a position player, as he can't play in the field. It probably gives the team more balance against RHP, as Thomas only hit to the tune of a 796 OPS vs RHP, so odds are even Stairs would be a bit of an improvement going forward on offense. Frank was a lefty killer, and the Jays should still be ok against lefties. And if they're not, well, I'd rather be strong against RHP, which is 75% of the leagues pitching.

I think earlier in the blog, Thomas was mentioned as a clubhouse cancer. Here's Wells' take on the situation:

Center fielder Vernon Wells praised management for finding a quick resolution to the situation.

“I think it’s better for (Thomas), too,” Wells said. “He gets a chance to have more time to possibly pick up with another team, with us it may give some of our younger guys a chance to come up.

“We haven’t been the best team so far this season. We definitely have some improvements to make.”

Sounds like the team may be better off without Thomas, though I may be reading too much into it.

Still, I hope this becomes a defining moment for the team, which will bring them together and also act as a wake up call that poor performance will be be tolerated by no one. For a team that underpeforms like no other, and plays down to their competition, this is a huge opportunity for the Jays. I really hope this brings everyone together, and ends up becoming a positive through an extended winning streak, one for which the Jays haven't put together in years.

I hope Thomas signs with a team and shows that he can still perform, but more importantly, I hope that the Jays are a better team at the end of the day.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

Finally, some drama. We appear to be at Defcon two when it comes to relations between the Big Sleep and Gibby...

It's hard to fault the manager for seeking to do something about the giant, non-performing hole in the heart of his order, but calling Thomas into his office and telling him he's now a BENCH player "indefinitely"? Thomas, no dullard, is not taking the news well as you might expect.

Unless this move came on JP's directive, and there's no reason to believe that it did, it's solely a baseball move, not an economic one. The Big Sleep doesn't see it that way, though:

"You know what's going on and I know what's going on. We'll see how it plays out. I'm just a little frustrated right now. There are some things going on around here this year that I haven't been happy about."

Yeah, we know what's going on, and it is kind of greasy.

Since Gibby's contract runs out at the end of this season, I see no reason why he'd try to limit Thomas' plate appearences to > 376 to prevent his '09 option from vesting of his own accord. I wouldn't put the cloak and dagger stuff past JP, but both men are in win now mode and have little to gain by making this a running sore during a season that is far from being lost.

The worst of the past three listless losses was the 7-5 defeat in 14 to the Rangers on Wednesday. The lack of urgency was absolutely pathetic and the tempo wasn't much higher on Thursday or last night even.

Something had to be done, and it was decided that that something would be lighting a fire under the ass of a very highly paid and underperforming veteran. After a day or two of riding the pines, Thomas should be reinserted into the lineup, point made. Frankly (no pun intended), I'd love to see him come into pinch hit today or tomorrow if there's a high-pressure late inning situation of the sort where we'd normally use Matt Stairs, who is presumably replacing him as DH.

Incidentally, the "slow starter" talk is kind of bollocks. April indeed has been the coolest month over his career (.283/.407/.513), but it's not like he typically put up sub .200 performances year in year out. And his April BAbip is abnormally low at .286 (almost .20 points lower than any other month), which indicates that he's long been making bad contact in the early going. Cold weather is a plausible excuse seeing as he played all those years in Chicago, but that shouldn't fly in a domed stadium.

If expectations for this club weren't so high, then the whole issue could just be ignored and Thomas allowed to hit his way out of this slump, which he will inevitablly do. Sorry pal, this ain't Bal'mer.

Blair says that JP will not sit by and let the offence "rot" as we wait for Scott Rolen's return, speculating that Adam Lind will get recalled from Syracuse in the near future. (Just about game time here and I see Stewart is taking the day off again because of a sore groin, so it's only a matter of time before Lind joins the club).

Griffin (!?!) sees the club's early road success as reason for optimism. He shits on nothing and noone in today's Star. Mark this date on your calander.

John Lott at the Post checks in on Big Dave Purcey after his debut, reporting:

“I think the anxiety and jitters and nervousness, whatever you want to call it, got to me a little bit,” he said with a shy smile when it was over.

“The walks [were not] what I really wanted but I did make pitches when I needed to, and just tried to keep our team in the game and ended up doing that,” he said. “I’m happy about that.”

Skip gave him a pat on the back and he's still at the top of list the next time we need a starter. Oh, and we DFA'd Josh Banks and called Shawn Camp up. Meh.

Wilner thinks something must be done to shake up the offense, but all roads seem to lead to certain death. Predictably, he preachs patience.

ELSEWHERE:

* Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts is a nifty little ballplayer and an outwardly "good guy" type, hence the surprise and dismay when he was named in the Mitchell Report during the offseason. He talked to the Baltimore Sun about the pressures that led to his steriod use.

* Were the rest of you as unshocked as I was to learn that Shea Hillenbrand's child was attacked by a marmut?

-- Johnny Was

Our Ticket Out of this Hell Hole?

Being a mere thousandaire (and sometimes a hundredaire in the late summer months between contracts), I don't really incorporate The Wall Street Journal into my morning routine. But I happened upon something so titillating while perusing USS Mariner this morning that I simply must share it with the rest of you.

Darren Everson at the WSJ weighs in on the proliferation of niche fan sites run by brilliant stat geeks and rebel warlords dedicated to analyzing everything from grand strategy from the minutae of in-game decisions. This stuff varies in quality, of course, but the best of it definitely has value. And front offices are starting to take notice of this free resource at their disposal.

If some of the tighter-fisted clubs around the league were hoping to quietly reap the rewards of their unpaid army of online researchers, the St. Louis Cardinals really crashed the party by launching a "One For the Birds" contest where fans can help the team out by submitting their own scouting reports for players on non-NCAA Division I teams that don't get much of a look from pro scouts.

It works like this: you do your research, pare it down to a 300-word report including stats and observations, submit it online, and then the best of the bunch get forwarded to the STL scouting team for review. If their interest is piqued, they'll send a pro to have a look at your player, which could potentially lead to his being drafting in June. The "scout" who submits the best report gets a trip to STL and tickets to a couple of ball games regardless of whether or not their player is selected in the amateur draft. Sweet!

One would expect this sort of things to meet with a huge groan from the traditional world of beer and tacos baseball talent evaluators, but here's how the Cards spin it:

"We don't have a monopoly on baseball knowledge," says Sig Mejdal, the Cardinals' senior quantitative analyst who helped create the contest. "Just looking at the fan sites and posting boards, you see an amazing amount of energy. Why not harness it?"

True, true. And it's fitting that the Cards are the first to cross the divide between the front office and fandom. Albert Pujols, a pretty decent hitter you must admit, was taken 402nd overall in the 1999 draft out of Metropolitan Community College-Maple Woods, a local college not known for being a baseball hot bed.

I don't think anyone expects this new promotion to yield a bevy of Pujols-esque studs in obscure regional colleges, but if it costs the club nothing more than $200 in tickets to the winner, why in the hell wouldn't you let the fans poke their noses around? Our Jays have actually been giving away tickets to see the club formerly known as the Devil Rays to flex pack subscribers for years, so why not make the punters work for them a bit?

The Mariners are following suite. Not in the realm of contest hullabaloo, but they are acknowledging that they've used the observations of internet bloggers to help young ace Felix Hernandez. This is fascinating:

Last season, Dave Cameron, co-founder of U.S.S. Mariner, the Web site of choice for obsessive fans of the Seattle Mariners, said he had grown tired of watching one of the team's starting pitchers, Felix Hernandez, get bombed by opposing hitters early in games. He did a pitch-by-pitch analysis of Mr. Hernandez's starts, which revealed an overreliance on fastballs. Mr. Cameron then wrote an open letter to the Mariners' pitching coach, urging him to tell Mr. Hernandez to throw more off-speed pitches in the early innings.

The pitching coach showed the letter to Mr. Hernandez, who made the suggested adjustment and shut out the Oakland Athletics for eight innings in a subsequent start.

Everson gives recognition to the mother of all Jays sites, Batter's Box, where a recent 2700-word analysis of catcher ERAs is pretty much par for the course. Sadly, however, while JP admitted that he was a semi-regular BB reader when he first arrived in TO, he soon grew frustrated with what he perceived to be the ignorance of fandom as more critical comments poured in during the Jays disasterous 2004 season.

His primary beefs:

JP believes Bauxites [as Batter's Box posters are known] don’t understand the issues he deals with on a daily basis:

· The willingness (or lack thereof) by other clubs to make deals.

· The offers to free agents that other clubs put on the table.

· The occasional need to sign a player to a generous contract because the talent pool for that type of player is drying up.

And the lack of understanding is starting to grate.

“When we first came here, you [Batter’s Box] embraced what we were doing,” he said. “We did have a bad year last year, but we had a lot of injuries. [Now] guys are saying, ‘I’m not sure about JP anymore.’ Well, that’s OK, I can take it. But I used to give you guys a lot more credit. It takes away from what you guys are trying to do when you become almost the equivalent of a call-in radio show.”

Fair enough, but it's pretty Vladimir Putin-esque to say, "you're great when you agree with me, when you don't I'll send the FSB to your house in the middle of the night."

Most of the work at BB is of pro quality in my estimation, but yes, it is an open forum where the thoughts of Joe from Saskitoba get equal play with the more senior posters with advanced degrees and baseball experience. It shows a thin skin on JP's part if he can't separate the two, acknowledging the good work of the latter and weeding out posts from the former. Imagine how he'd react if he heard what the average JaysTalk caller had to say about him? In any event, the two articles linked in the above paragraph give a fascinating insight into his personality and his views of fandom.

I simply can't see the Jays following the Cardinals down the path of using amateur blogger scouts so long as the Ricciardi regime is in place. He's simply too proud, too arrogant. We do know, however, that BB has shown that there is a possibility that the best of our work might someday filter its way up to the top of this organization and actually influence decision-making. And that, I think, is pretty cool. As for our relationship with future executives, well, one never knows...

-- Johnny Was