Spring Training Notes

It's always nice to see players rebound after an injury. Spring training can be an indication of whether or not a player has successfully recovered from said injury. Unless they're doing poorly, in which case spring training is meaningless....

Lyle Overbay is off to a wicked start. In 35 AB he's hitting 371/436/514, and he's been one of the most dangerous bats to date for the Jays (that's not saying much though...). The biggest thing for me, is that out of his 13 hits, 5 are doubles. He hasn't hit a HR yet, but if he's hitting a ton of doubles, it's a great sign.

Scott Rolen's another player coming off an injury plauged season. While I refused to believe him when he claimed his shoulder was better, the numbers speak for themselves. In 26 AB, he's hitting 346/469/615. The significant thing for me is out of his 9 hits, he's hit 2 doubles, a triple and a home run. So it's not like he's getting cheap little hits, he's crushing the ball. And he's showing some nice plate discipline with 5 BB to 5 K's.

Following the Stewart-Johnson debate, nobody has pulled away or proven they deserve a spot. Johnson is hitting 265/316/324, while Stew is hitting 222/323/407. Stew has performed better to date, but I wish I could find some RHP/LHP splits. Stew does have 4 BB to 0 K, whereas Johnson has 0 BB and 4K. He's not doing much to disprove his critics, and unless he makes significant strides the Jays are likely to non-tender him. A shame, cause I'm thinking this one could bite us in the ass.

Everyone seems to be talking about how scrappy Eckstein is, but nobody is talking about how crappy Eckstein has been. He's hitting 161/278/323 so far. He hasn't struck out, and he's got a good OBP differential from his BA, but it's not a good start. Yes, I know it's spring training, but nobody seems to be talking about Eckstein's stats, so I thought it was worth bringing up...

Aaron Hill has been one of the best players to date. He's hitting 429/500/536. The slugging isn't the number that should get your attention - it's the OBP. Opposing pitchers would try to intentionally walk Hill and he'd swing at the pitch. But he's walked a couple times, and that's a good sign going forward. If he walks more in the regular season, he'll have a shot at being in the top tier of 2B in the league.

Wells hasn't been hitting so well, but he's a slow starter. Again, it's only spring training, but you have to be a little worried that Wells is only hitting 257/278/400. He's hitting for very little power, and he's not hitting for average. Knowing he's a slow starter, coming off major surgery, the Jays should bat him at the bottom of the order until he shows he's recovered and productive. They should ease him back in, rather than push him to be the best offensive player on the team. Coming off major surgery, the only thing I want him tearing is the cover off the ball when he launches it into the stands.

As for the pitching, I'm not going to focus on the ERA. The main thing is that guys like Accardo, McGowan, Doc, Litsch & Marcum have solid K:BB rates. I am somewhat concerned about AJ's 5:6 K:BB ratio, but it is spring training and he's without his curveball. Speaking of which, the season starts in a week and a half an AJ still hasn't thrown the curve. I'm extremely paranoid, so I think this is something worth monitoring.

Twitchy.

Start spreading the news

Ken Rosenthal continues to spread rumours that Johnson will be traded. However, to protect Johnson from realizing he's available (cause that's just how Rosenthal Rolls), he refuses to add his name in any of the rumours.

The Mariners continue to look for a veteran right-handed hitting outfielder, major-league sources say, indicating that club officials are less than satisfied with the four players competing for their final outfield spot — Wladimir Balentien, Charlton Jimerson, Mike Morse and Jeremy Reed.

Jimersen and Morse, who are out of options, must clear waivers for the Mariners to send them to the minors. Reed is a left-handed hitter, and the Mariners' preference is a right-handed complement for their two corner outfielders, Raul Ibanez and Brad Wilkerson.

They want a platoonable RH hitting OF. I'm sure we have a couple of those types lying around. Maybe we can convince them that Stewart is the better of our 2 RH platooned OF - I mean, after all, his career OPS against righties is better...

Rosenthal continues to spread rumours, this time about the Cubs:

The Cubs' desire to add Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts and a right-handed hitting platoon partner for center fielder Felix Pie stems in part from their inexperience up the middle.

Pie and catcher Geovany Soto are rookies, and shortstop Ryan Theriot is entering his second full season. Japanese right fielder Kosuke Fukudome also is a rookie, at least by major-league standards.

I realize Ken suggested the RH platoon partner COULD come from Baltimore. But if the Jays step in and trade a RH OF, and get back a decent prospect, they accomplish two goals:

1) Slow down Baltimore's rebuilding process

2) Trading Stewa-....Oh right, I mean trading Johnson. Sorry about that - some stupid part of me wants to see Stewart traded first. Alright, got that out of my system.

Well, that's it for Rosenthal's rumours, but clearly there are several teams that are in need of a veteran, right handed, platoon partner. Keep spreading those rumours, Ken!

Twitchy.

Something smells a little fishy to me...

Originally I agreed with Wilner's assessment that Stew would make the team over Johnson in case of an injury. But after some thinking, that really doesn't seem right to me, especially if Johnson ends up getting non-tendered.

Let's pretend that there is a significant/long term injury to one of: Thomas, Overbay, Wells, Rios, or Stairs. Logically, people could be shifted over so that Stewart could get full time playing. Last year Stewart had a 756 OPS against RHP - not great, but better than Johnson. So from that point of view, I'd rather see Stewart in. Obviously someone would have to be called up to fill the 25th spot - in pretty much all cases, an OF would have to be called up. If Overbay or Thomas are injured, Stairs moves to 1B/DH. If Wells is injured, Rios to CF, Stairs to RF. If Rios is injured, Stairs to RF etc. So yeah, for pretty much any injury we're going to need to call up an OF.

Here's where it gets interesting - the person we're most likely to call up in the event of an injury is Adam Lind. We're not going to call him up to play sporadically - if there's a long term injury, I'd rather see Lind playing LF than Stewart. Hell, even in Lind's horrible 2007 season, he still managed a 720 OPS (251/289/430). If he brings that average up to 270 (I'm not being unreasonable, he could probably get 300 but let's keep our expectations low..), his OPS would be around 750 - pretty much what Stewart's capable of. It's possible Lind could do significantly better, maybe even an 800 OPS or higher.

While I agree that Lind shouldn't be arbitrarily called up if he's doing a bad job, and that he should earn a spot, let's be real here. Raise your hands if you'd rather see Stewart playing LF long term because of an injury instead of Adam Lind. Don't raise them all at once now...

Anyways, if we assume that I'm right (and remember, when we assume, we make an ass out of you and me), than Stewart isn't here to provide insurance in case of an injury. So from that point of view, the most significant factor to making the roster goes back to who can hit LHP the best - Johnson or Stewart. Last year Stew had a 699 OPS against lefties, and the highest he's had over the past 3 years was 700 in 06. On the other hand, Johnson, even after coming back from back surgery, posted a 913 OPS against lefties.

So if we're carrying a 6 man pen (and considering how little Gibby goes to the 7th guy, it wouldn't be as bad as most people think...), it's possible to bring both Stew & Johnson up. But if they go with the 7 man pen, I'm going to go against the common wisdom of bringing Stew, and sticking with Johnson. I'm just not buying the long-term injury excuse when we have a young, left handed, top prospect LF just waiting for his time to come up.

Twitchy.

Shannon Stewart?

No, not THAT Shannon Stewart (but hey, which pic had you rather look at, this one or the one over at the Mockingbird?)

Aaaanywho....what was I talking about?

OH YEAH! The OTHER Shannon Stewart! Well, it seems the Jays have handed out a minor league contract and camp invitation to our favorite noodle-armed left fielder from days of yore. I find it a puzzling move.

I know that some of my fellow baseball thinkers are relatively pleased, and not to say I am all busted up about it myself, but neither do I share any enthusiasm.

Why? Because I don't see the logic. Do we want Stew in case Reed is injured again? then why did we not sign Kevin Mench while he was available, given that he does what Reed does (back all three position and pound the stuffing out of LHP)?

Do we want Stew as a general safeguard in case some other OF can't go? What does he bring that Adam Lind doesn't? And who does Lind have to fellate to get a fair shot anyway?

Do we want Stew because we already know Reed isn't feeling right? How does that comport with the published report that he is at full speed? And if we want marginal defense from a guy who can hit lefties (and with Stairs there that's all that's necessary) then why not This Guy with his gaudy 1.023 OPS vs lefties last year instead of Stewart and his .682 over the last three seasons?
Do we want Stew to actually play in AAA? Ya know, the team who already has a guy in LF named . . . Adam Lind? Who sits? the veteran who resents being in the minors to begin with? Or the kid who is only in the minors so he can play every day?

And before you say "DH!" remember, we already have two young catchers down there who both need to hit every day. Four guys can't play three positions every day.

As that dog said in that classic Warner Brothers cartoon (and if you don't know what I mean go get yerself some culture) "It just don't add up!"


The only logic I see here is if the Jays are simply carrying Stewart through camp for the sake of a safeguard and Stewart accepted in order to be in someone's camp just to get in shape for whoever he actually ends up with. No one is any more found of former Jays, in general, than I am, but Stewart doesn't fit this team in any way and I'd be stunned if, barring injury or trade, he's still in the Jays organization on April 1.

~WillRain