Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Wild and Crazy!

I have a trade idea.

Now, these sorts of ideas are always wildly unlikely to happen but I had this brainstorm and figured I'd share it with you . . . because this is my blog (in part) and I CAN. So there.

EDIT -

Given i have re-evaluated and recanted this idea, I did not want it taking up so much space on the front page, so I have removed the body of this post. In the interest of integrity, i have added that which I removed her to the comments on this post so you can still find it if for some reason you didn't see it originally and want to see what i'm talking about. The best thing though, is just to pretend this post never happened.

~WillRain

5 comments:

The Southpaw said...

one added note. If we assume that Wells is actually worth about $15 million a year (on average over the next six years), then over the next six seasons he's worth $90 million

What he's actually making is $117 million. So what an acquiring team is actually taking on is a good CF at a good price plus $27 million "wasted" dollars over 6 years (assuming no opt out)

What we are taking from the Cubs in the proposed deal is a SP making at least $5 mil to much and an OF probably making $14-17 million too much over the next three years and a 1B making a little too much over the next 2 years.
Call it $22 million "wasted" money.

~W

ari said...

I really don't like this idea. Marquis is terrible, I'd rather give the starts to any of our intriguing young arms. With our top D I'm confident that strike throwers can succeed. Fukudome is an over 30 corner OF with a .379 SLG who hit .217/.314/.326 in the 2nd half - Cubs fans HATED him. Lee is a solid but unspectacular guy like Vernon, but again like Fuk is on the downside of that hill. Theriot I'm not sure what to make of - he was complete crap in 2007 but okay in 2008, although the SB% was horrendous. If he settles in between he could be a decent .350 OBP leadoff guy (sound right if you also look at his minor league stats and factor in a typical drop), but I'm not sure there's much of an upgrade over Scutaro there for 2008, especially when you factor in defense. From the few metrics I see (and the Fielding Bible's 2008 list) Scutaro was better defensively.

"If the DH is a better hitter than Wells,"

Then it's not a 5.5m difference. It's MUCH greater than that. And if it not a FA pickup but Snider instead, then you have a lineup that is seriously lacking in pop. I'd rather Wells/Overbay/Ryan/McDonald/(Ricky Romero starting) and 5.5m+ to spend on a DH (so it's not Stairs, as you said) than Lee/Fukudome/Theriot/Marquis/(Scott Downs closing).

"2012 and beyond - If Vernon stays under his old deal, he's much less "overpaid" than it appears now. the market for a 120ish OPS+ hitter in 2012 will be a lot closer to $21 mil than it is now. The risk for the Cubs is that Vernon will not still be a competent CF at that point."

This is precisely why the Jays keep him. The Jays DO have the competent CF already, so they don't have the risk. If he doesn't opt out (and it might be in his best interest to at that point) then they will be the ones slightly overpaying for an above average hitter.

"Which, as much as on-field talent, is what the Jays need right now."

The Jays played .580 ball under Cito. I appreciate all the crystal ball reading and concern about future payroll, but let's live in the now. If the 2010 payroll is such a concern right now, I have no problem moving a Ryan or an Overbay. But there's no way I want to be taking salaries back in a deal I don't even think improves the team either offensively or defensively, and certainly hurts them pitching-wise.

Love your stuff though, so please keep plugging away.

mathesond said...

I'm not sure I see Overbay as a marginal downgrade from Lee, but I could be blinded by Lee's earlier seasons

The Southpaw said...

Random replies...hopefully you will get what comment is being addressed:

Taking Maquis is simply the price for getting Theriot. If he sucks he grabs the back of the pen or even get's cut at some point

Fuku, I'm hoping, will rebound after adjusting to American Ball but he does represent the great risk here and taking that risk is the price we pay for shedding the cash.

I have to confess I did not do due diligence on Theriot's minor league numbers. If he was a total fluke in '08 then I may have embarrassed myself here.

On Wells future - that's the main place where folks who know my previous writings will spot a contradiction. I am on record (confidently) as expecting that the market will be close enough by the winter of 2011 that Wells will opt out. I'm not entirely confident he will still be considered a solid defensive CF by then though, and if he's not that makes a big difference in what the FA market for him would be.

Still, I think the market will inflate enough that he might very well roll the dice if we haven't had to move him out of CF before 2012. IF that were to happen, then this whole plan falls apart (except for the goal of acquiring a good young SS)

On Overbay v. Lee - I think that on both of them, they have been better in the past - you either compare past to past or now to now unless you know something specific which made one play below his ability.

Now, as I've been reading all this I've looked up a couple of things so there's a new post coming...

The Southpaw said...

ARCHIVED

Here's the thought process:

Almost all of us tend to agree that Vernon Wells has a contract that gets underfoot, in terms of the Jays' financial future, especially now that Snider gives us a real opportunity to replace Rios in RF and move him over.

The question always seems to be - what about that contract?

Well, here's an idea which I think might make sense.

The Chicago Cubs are in a CF search that rivals our perennial SS search. they have recently become big spenders and have some money they would like to move too (contradictory though these two things seem).

They would love to move Jason Marquis and Kosuke Fukudome, and some have mentioned them dealing Derrek Lee as well.

So....

To Toronto (player and contract) :

Derrek Lee - $13 mil - $13 in 2010
Kosuke Fukudome - $11.5 - $13 - $13.5
Jasone Marquis - $9.875
Ryan Theriot - ??

Total $$$ acquired - 34.375 - 26 - 13.5

To Chicago -

Vernon Wells $10 - $21 - $23 - $21 - $21 - $21
Lyle Overbay - $7 - $7
B.J. Ryan - $10 - $10
John McDonald - $1.9

Total $$$ acquired - $28.9 - $40 - $21 - $21 - $21

Essentially each team is trading two good players - Wells and Ryan for Lee and Theriot - and each is shuffling off 2 deals they would like to move (Well and Overbay/Marquis and Fukudome) - the rest is details.

***

From the Jays POV-
The eat up about $5.5 mil of their available cash in 2009, save a crucial $14 million in 2010, and 7.5 in 2011 and the rest of Vernon's after-option years (Cubs assume the risk that he will be good enough to opt out)

For that, they take on a very mediocre pitcher who's overpaid, the risk that Fukudome is ever more than is mediocre hitter, and gain a fair margnal upgrade at 1B and a life-saver at SS/lead-off.

Or, look at it year-by-year:

2009 - at a cost of $5.475 million we marginally upgrade 1B, get a SS who's worth that much to our lineup by himself, get a stop-gap pitcher, and a high risk/high/reward outfielder.

2010 - We do all that plus we saved $14 million

2011 - seeing a pattern?

The lineup would look kinda like....

Theriot - SS
Hill - 2B
Rios - CF
DH
Lee - 1B
Rolen - 3B
Lind - LF
Fukudome - RF
Barajas - C

Depending on who that DH is, that lineup is reasonable. If the DH is a better hitter than Wells, then you compare DH/Lee/Fukudome to Wells/Overbay/Stairs and that's not bad - plus you add a credible lead-off hitter.

If Fukudome played up to his deal you have a surplus when Snider arrives (unless your DH was a one-year deal) but there are worse problems to have. If not, then the worst case is that we have a highly overpaid 4th OF for a year or two which is better than having Wells making too much (assuming you think he'll be making too much) for five years or so.

***

For the Cubs-
You dump two contracts you hate, and one you are so-so on and get a true Center fielder, a solid veteran closer, and take a marginal hit at 1Bm all while saving about five and a half million dollars. You have Cedeno around to play short, and the money to go after another OF and a replacement SS if you choose. Plus you have trade pieces (Hill/Marshall and Pie) to work on those issues as well (Pie and Marshall would probably get you Tehan, for instance)

Year-by-year:

2009 - Gain a true CF, a great closer, save about $5.5 mil , take a marginal hit at 1B and lose a good young SS

2010: at a cost of $14 million over what they were already oblidged to, and Theriot, they have CF and closer solved.

2011: at a cost of $7.5 million, they have a CF instead of an underachiving RF.

2012 and beyond - If Vernon stays under his old deal, he's much less "overpaid" than it appears now. the market for a 120ish OPS+ hitter in 2012 will be a lot closer to $21 mil than it is now. The risk for the Cubs is that Vernon will not still be a competent CF at that point.

***

Also, the Cubs are probably one of the teams Wells would waive his no-trade for as well as being a team that's able to handle his contract in the out years.

So yeah, wild and crazy to be sure . . . but also daring and gutsy and bold - potentially a Fernandez/McGriff type game changer.

Which, as much as on-field talent, is what the Jays need right now.

~WillRain