Dealing with Reality

Before I say anything let me doff my cap in the direction of Stoeten at DJF from whom the theme of this post is entirely ripped off. But it's such a very good point that I cannot resist the temptation to wax verbose on the point.

On Friday Uncle Dick made the case for the concept that it's "only fair" that the Jays trade Roy Halladay. His thesis is summed up early on thusly:

the time has come for the Jays to trade Roy Halladay to a contending club and get a combination package of ready-for-prime-time and future players. The current market shows that there are clubs with needs that would be willing to pony up a nice package.

This, of course, has provoked the usually frenzy of fantasy baseball geeks spinning glorious visions of raping competing GM's in a violent and brutal fashion. I've seen deals proposed up to and including Halladay for Prince Fielder AND JJ Hardy. Now, don't get me wrong, I fully support the notion that IF we were ever going to trade Doc (and that only by his request) we should squeeze the very best return possible out of the transaction. But there is a point at which someone has to say, "this is not a video game."

Stoeten's insight was to learn that lesson from the extended soap opera surrounding the availability of Jake Peavy. Now, granted, the analogy is not perfect only in that Peavy will only accept a deal to certain teams. But it's still very very informative.

So, first lets be clear about who we are comparing. Peavy is probably a notch below Doc in sheer ability and results but that's only because of the level of competition. 4 of the last 5 years his ERA has been 2.88 or below and in three of those years his road splits (away from the pitcher's heaven he calls home) were just as good as those in Petco. He will turn 28 early next season and he is signed to a total salary of $60 million over the next 4 years - $78 if the option is picked up.

I won't bother to recite Doc's abilities but he's 4 years older and signed for the same annual rate as Peavy ($15 million) but only for the next two seasons. So, for the acquiring team, relative age and length of contract almost certainly would make Peavy the slightly more appealing target.

Griffin says the current market shows what teams would be willing to pay - and in this he is correct - so exactly how much is that price?

Helpfully, Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune had an article Saturday breaking down the failed attempt to send Peavy to the Braves. According to the Krasovic, SS Yunel Escobar and CF Gorkys Hernandez were agreed upon. Beyond that, the Braves were offering SP Jo-Jo Reyes and RP Blaine Boyer. The Padres were asking for those two to be upgraded to SPs Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke (or possibly catching prospect Tyler Flowers as the fourth player).

So what kind of a return is this?

Escobar is a solid young defensively talented shortstop with an above average, but not elite, bat. He's 26 years old and in his second year in the majors. Given relative ages and so forth, he's probably not quite the player Aaron Hill is but they are in the same neighborhood.

Gorkys Hernandez is a speedy outfielder said to have very good tools who played in the lo-A Carolina League as a 20 year old last year and posted a .734 OPS. On Baseball America's newly released Top 10 list, Hernandez is #4. So let's say he's a similar talent to our own Justin Jackson.

Jo-Jo Reyes is a 24 year old LHP who's had two tries at the bigs in Atlanta and hasn't blown anyone away. In 32 starts over two seasons he's posted a 5.94 ERA and has demonstrated control issues. Reyes was a second round draft pick and pitched well in the minors though. Charlie Morton is actually a full year older than Reyes, was a third round pick, and has noteably worse ratios in the minors than Reyes did. He also got 15 unimpressive major league starts in 2008. I assume that the reason both teams prefer Morton has something to do with "stuff."
There's not a Jay who precisely compares to Reyes. The best I can think of is a slightly more advanced Ricky Romero.

Blaine Boyer is a 27 year old RH relief pitcher who threw almost 38 pretty good innings out of the Braves pen in 2005, missed most of 2006 with injury, and has been ordinary since. He was quite good in the first half of 2008 but from July 1 on, his ERA was over NINE. He's a fringe guy, Brian Wolfe is probably better at this point. Jeff Locke was listed by BA as the Braves' #7 prospect. He's a 21 year old LHP who reached Lo-A in 2008.

So, the Braves - who were willing to pay AJ Burnett $16 million a year, don't forget, were willing to pay, at the most, the rough equivalent of Aaron Hill, Justin Jackson, Ricky Romero, and Brian Wolfe for a pitcher with marginally more value than Roy Halladay. And were willing to forgo that deal rather than upgrade their offer.

Now, don't get me wrong, no one has a man crush on Jackson more than me, and I love Aaron Hill to bits....but is THAT the deal that's going to make your mouth water to trade the best player on our team? Is that deal anything like all the Kershaw & Kemp & more speculation that you hear from Jays' fans?

Is THAT what Richard Griffin meant by "a nice package"?

Not from where I sit. Don't get me wrong, if Halladay tells JP that he's not inclined to resign after 2010, I'd listen for the next year and see what I heard. But this whole bullshit about caving in to inevitable mediocrity is just that. But the last word we have from Doc is this:

"There's no chance if I have anything to say about it that I'm going anywhere. I can understand maybe disappointment with the way we're going. But as long as it's up to me, I'm staying."

That's the bottom line, as far as I'm concerned. As long as that remains true, I'm not interested in any deal. Roy Halladay is our George Brett, our Robin Yount, our Cal Ripkin. We have no business even flirting with the idea of dealing him until that opinion changes.

~WillRain

Target: Furcal

Jordan Bastian sums up the Jays accomplishments, meger though they were, at the Winter Meetings and the take-away is this: The Furcal story isn't dead.

Bastian quotes JP:

Ricciardi said he has ownership's approval . . . for adding Furcal, who is reportedly seeking a four-year contract. Toronto would need to free up some payroll in order to sign the shortstop, though Ricciardi was told this week that he can sign Furcal first, if the opportunity arises.

"That was probably more of a change during the week," Ricciardi said. "Probably more so that in order to do what we want to do, we have to get the player. There's only a certain time period that you have to deal with the player. So we'll see."

"I think we're in there [on Furcal]," Ricciardi said. "But we've been through free agency before. You never know until you get the player. Right now, we'll just keep going like we're in there."

So, ostensibly, the Jays are in on Furcal and can sign him without first moving payroll. If they succeed, then they would presumably do the math and see how much they had to shed in order to come in under payroll - we as fans can only guess at this because we don't know from official sources what the payroll target is, only that it's low enough that Furcal doesn't fit under it.

If you assumed $85, and assumed Furcal would make $10 million in 2009, then there's $6-7 million minimum that would need to be cleared. As I've noted before, you can save a couple of million by moving Tallet and Frasor, but it seems that you are looking at Overbay or Ryan going if the Jays sign furcal. And JP's protestations aside, Ryan is the guy most expendable.

Other points of interest in the piece -

* JP states flatly that doc will not be traded in any sort of rebuilding effort, and goes on to say that he will talk to ownership and to halladay in spring training regarding the future and the potential for an extension. If Doc were as pessimistic as manyy fans seem to be, he'd say "get me out of here" but thankfully, there's no indication he is so misguided.

*JP expects there to be some lingering unsigned pitching help in late January which can be had for a lesser investment. Magic 8 ball says "signs point to yes" on that one. Jon Lieber, Orlando Hernandez, Bart Colon, and Freddy Garcia are among the names I wouldn't be surprised to see still unemployed a month from now.

*There's no news on Michael Barrett but last reports had the Jays fairly confident they could sign him. It's a good signing. If Barrett finds the form he had a couple of years ago he could take the starting job and perhaps make it less necessary to rusy Arencibia, and if he flops we lose nothing significant (except Thigpen's one big shot).

*Jays lost a couple of guys who will never make the majors in the Rule 5, and drafted a couple of guys who'll never make the majors. Nothing to see here except for the totally obsessive (like folks who write blogs for instance).

Meanwhile, I'm trying to decide if it's worth 17 draft places to me to see AJ break down in NY and give Hank Stienbrenner an anyerism or not. The Tao notes quite correctly that Yankees spending sprees do not always end well - for the Yankees.

~Will

Cy Young Frontrunners

The Jays are playing the Indians this week, and we'll be lucky enough to watch arguably the top two pitchers in the AL pitch on consecutive days. They won't get a chance to face off against each other - Doc pitches tomorrow against Byrd, and Lee goes Sunday vs Richmond.

Lee's a great story - a guy who came back from pretty much the worst year of his career, where he'd spent some time in AAA, to absolutely dominating the AL.

Doc is doing what he's always done - eating up a ton of innings while putting out a dominant performance. For what it's worth, I think he's having the best year of his brilliant career.

Lee's got a better chance of winning the Cy Young if he keeps this up - he's got all the pretty stats that writers go for in Win/Loss record (15-2 for Lee vs 13-8 for Doc). Lee also has a 2.58 ERA, slightly better than Doc's impressive 2.77 ERA. I don't expect the writers to look at much more than ERA, K's, and Win/Loss record, so if Lee can keep this up he'll probably get the majority of the votes.

But does that mean that he's actually been the best pitcher in the league, deserving of the award? I'll take a look here to find out if Lee's really deserving.

Lee has a phenomenal K:BB rate at 127:22, good enough for a 5.77 K:BB rate. Doc's ain't that bad either, at 149:29, which gives him a 5.13 K:BB rate. Doc makes up for it with a 1.98 GB rate. Cliff isn't the groundball specialist that Doc is, and he comes in with a 1.14 GB:FB ratio.

I usually look at ERA+ to help when the pitching stats are very close like they are here. Cliff Lee is the winner in that, with an incredible 168 to Doc's 151. Now, if I was to base this solely on the ERA+, Lee would be the winner. But there's one more stat that's in Halladay's favour.

Roy's pitched 175 1/3 innings, while Lee has pitched 153 2/3 innings. So to this point in the season, Halladay has thrown 21 2/3 innings more than Lee. Halladay is projected to throw 242 innings (!!!) while Lee is projected to throw 214.

I think the amount of innings thrown by Doc' gives him a bit of an advantage over Lee. Lee's stats may be better, but by pitching more Halladay has had a bigger impact on the Jays team. And if the projections pan out, Doc will end up throwing nearly 30 innings more than Lee.

If you look back to last year, a similar situation occurred. CC Sabathia won the Cy Young award over Beckett, despite Beckett posting arguably better numbers. The reason CC won - or at least most likely won - is the fact he pitched nearly 40 innings more than Beckett.

When the season's over, I still think Lee will win the award. He's got the pretty stats I mentioned early, and in those stats he's significantly better than Doc. But if these guys keep pitching like they do now, I think that at the end of the year, Halladay's the one who should be winning the award.

Twitchy.

The Doc Speaks

By now, if you are any sort of Jays fan and haven't been undercover as a covert agent in some primitive land, you are aware of Roy Halladay's measured remarks about the state of the Jays and his ambitions. I must be the contrarian in the crowd because I see more that's hopeful in his remarks than things to be feared.

It is, of course, a given, that Doc wants to be the tent-pole of a championship team. While others are panicking at his (understandable) frustration at the Jays not being able to turn the corner, I for one find encouragement in his disinterest in being the "final piece" hired gun. That says to me that it will take more than just money to lure him away. Many seem to also be overlooking the fact that his wife said it was important to him to spend his whole career with one team. It seems to me that one has to ASSUME that the Jays will not be better than they are now in order to reach the conclusion that Doc is in danger of getting out.

I find it even more intriguing that Halladay voiced open support for JP. I think there is a very interesting dynamic at play in their relationship and one not to be easily overlooked when fans rush to get on the "Fire JP" Bandwagon. All of this goes back to Mike Wilner's true observation that the primary reason so many are so frustrated with this team is not because it's a bad team but because we could all see even from Spring Training that this is a team that should be contending. After all, if you know a team truly sucks, there are no expectations to be disappointed about. Doc can see this as well or better than any fan - JP didn't put together a bad team, he put together a very good team that didn't produce (so far) good results. That has to be maddening to passionate players who look around them and see talented teammates not producing. For now, I'm not worried about Doc wanting out. There's a lot of baseball to be played between now and November 2010.

On another note, we are informed that the second opinion on Dusty was like unto the first - no new damage and no surgery necessary. N projection yet on a return date - JP initially projected at least a month but nothing from the doctors - off the top of my head, I'm gonna spitball August 15 against the Red Sox as a good target date.

Hat tip to Stoeten at DJF for the link.

~WillRain

The Roundup

Those of you who watched until the very end in the Wendy's hours of the morning know that it was a nail-biter in Oakland last night, one of those old-timey pitcher's duels that really doesn't need scoring to be exciting. On the unexpected side of the ledger, Doc didn't throw a complete game (coming out after 8 strong), Rich Harden didn't shatter into 1000 tiny shards of glass, and clutchtacularness from Alex Rios? BJ got 'er done in the bottom of the 9th, but did his top steppin'est best to make it dicey, walking 2 without allowing a run.

You will be glad note that today's game is on at the more civilized hour of 3:30 p.m. EST, but you will also be equally saddened to learn that it's not televised, not even on Extra Innings. Again, we are reduced to listening to Jesse Litsch take on Dana Eveland on the radio just as our caveman forebearers did.

We start the day 2.5 back in the Wild Card race with a soft June sched approaching. The Oracle was right to mock those of you who said the season was over and I hope you feel small, real small.

Really not that chuffed to hear that Curtis Thigpen has been recalled, well, and that Zaunner is on the DL for two weeks. My recollection of Thigpen is that he was little better than a right-handed Russ Adams clone: played a bunch of positions, but none particularly well, below average with the stick. He rose through the minors quickly enough, but hasn't really had a good season at the dish since low A ball in 2001 and his defence left something to be desired in the bigs last summer. (You may recall that Gibby lost confidence in him because he didn't cover his signing hand with his glove allowing opposing hitters to tip pitches). And he didn't hit for shit in Toronto, either, going .238/.294/.287 in 101 ABs. He's not a blue chipper like Travis Snider, or a solid A prospect like Adam Lind, so you don't sweep that under the rug so quickly.

Baseball America is somewhat kinder than my own recollections: He's a solid defensive catcher, but his build may not allow him to stay there for the long haul, and he's shown enough athleticism to play other positions. Thigpen has struggled at the plate so far in 2008, hitting .187/.216/.253. BA even goes so far as to call him the 8th best prospect in the organization, though it's likely he gets some added regard for being so close to the majors.

And according to these groupies, he's single and hung like a Shetland. Thanks internet, why did we need to know that? (You can hear the crickets chirping in the Rod Barajas forum...)

My beef with Thigpen was his sense of entitlement. He'd won big in college with Texas, risen through the ranks at a steady pace, and hit the bigs at 24. When he didn't win a spot on the ML roster in spring training this year he pouted to Richard Griffin rather than admit that he still had work to do before becoming a big leaguer. He skulked his way through the first month the season in Syracuse, playing some passive-aggressive mind game where he thought he could hurt the organization by playing shitacular baseball. Though he's hotted up of late, Thigpen has stunk it up this year and is totally undeserving of a promotion. This one comes by default as Robinzon Diaz simply cannot stay healthy this year.

Well, you get to wear the uni again, Big Boy. That doesn't mean we haven't forgotten that you're a bit of a whiner who doesn't have the skills to match the talk. I wouldn't expect to see him in more than a handful of games over the next fortnight; when you get in Gibby's bad books--and early indications are skip is not impressed with his foppish new hairdo--it's a long road back.

Ok, time to rock shit against the A's. Go Jays!

ELSEWHERE:

* Sick Bay: Tory Percival to the DL, Frank Thomas to the DL, Matsuzaka to the DL?

* For those you still following the Roger Clemens Saga, re-enter Mindy McCready.

* While tossers in Boston and New York stuff the All-Star Game ballot box with votes for their own players merit aside, fans in National League parks are actually voting for the best player at each position regardless of team affiliation. You guys are better than us, it's that simple.

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

As far as polish goes, Doc's birthday outing last night was more punk rock than jazz band, but he was good enough to win in the end and that's all that really matters.. You don't take too many games from the Twins on defensive miscues and poor base-running on their part, so savour the not unpleasant odour that rare flower.

And what's this, 3-hour games now? I'll take it if they're winning.

Dustin McGowan takes on lefty Glen Perkins in a getaway day game that begins at 1 this afternoon. It feels like the Jays have been involved in an inordinately high number of sweeps this early into the season, so it wouldn't be shocking to see them come away with a W here. No jinx!

Some rando Italian at the Sun checks in on our injured shortstops and it appears that Eckstein will be ready to play before J-Mac. Scutaro is getting on base at a good enough clip now that both can afford to take their sweet time.

You've got to admire Jesse Litsch's "youthful exuberance" in offering to start Friday night's game on 2 days rest (his last outing was only 70 pitches), but please, don't cockblock Dave Purcey, kiddo.

The Oracle summarizes Wednesday's with JP, which I was unable to listen to because AM 980 here in London was playing hockey and the Fan was playing a repeat of Prime Time Sports. Why is hockey still being played? And I deliberately skip PTS the first go around, so thanks for the double dose.

Dick Griffin's new mailbag is up. As always, please skip if your mental health is fragile.

Ok, I can't resist. Why even print a question this flamboyant?

Q-Dear Richard,

What are the chances of the Blue Jays being contracted from Major League Baseball? Doing so seems like the only way for me to break my obsession with this pathetic team and organization. This season really has me at the end of my rope. If not, is there some form of sports fan rehab available?

James Riswick, Los Angeles

Sneak preview: the answer is only slightly less retarded than the question.

ELSEWHERE:

* The Rays continue to lock up their core long-term. Scott Kazmir extends for 3 years at $28.5 million. Next move? Eric Hinske, 5 years,$22 million? I flicked back and forth between the Jays-Twins and Yankees-Rays last night and I can tell you that fans at Trop were considerably more raucus than the staid Metrodome crowd on a Wednesday night. They're gaining self-esteem in Raysland and that can't be good.

* The Bosox are a bit banged up. JD Drew did the Vernon Wells sliding catch/broken wrist catch the other day, Julio Lugo has a concussion and Coco Crisp is suffering from naseau. I told him to stay away from the bouillabase, but he wouldn't listen. Clay Bucholz joins their ranks with a broken nail on his right middle finger.

* The Yankees too are feeling a bit uncomfortable with their early season performance. Hank Steinbrenner remains a cartoonish villan.

* Well, this ought to solve the PED problems plaguing the sport.

-- Johnny Was

Oops, I did it again!

This loss was pretty brutal, and I shouldn't be posting after it cause I'll probably say a few things I'll regret....

Am I the only one absolutely frustrated with Vernon Wells? It's his third error of the season, and by my count the 7th or 8th time on a routine ground ball it somehow bobbles out of his glove. Maybe it's a wet grass or a bad hop once or twice, but this is getting ridiculous. I don't know if it's a lack of focus, or if he's seriously having trouble fielding somewhat routine plays, but it's getting out of hand now. Watch Wells going forward on routine plays, because I'm positive he's booting a ton of routine plays and not getting called out for it.

This time it cost Doc and the Jays a huge opportunity to gain ground in the AL East. I'll give credit to Lester - he pitched a good game. But Doc was just incredible. His curve, his two seemer, they were as good as they've ever been. He was the definition of an ace in that game. And yet, he comes out with a loss.

The Jays got 4 BB and couldn't do anything with it. When a pitcher hands you so many bases, it's unacceptable not to score on them.

I really got a bad vite when I saw Halladay leave at the end of the game. He was beyond pissed, and I think his frustration went beyond this game. That should count as his fourth straight complete game, and yet he's lost 3 of the 4 games.

Despite all the failed attempts at driving in runners, this game was pretty much over when Pedroia absolutely robbed Wells of a hit in the 8th. If the Jays had built any momentum, it was gone and transferred to Boston.

Tabler & JC brought up a good point earlier in the game. This team will live & die by how Vernon Wells does. And I think it was pretty obvious tonight.

Twitchy.