Cy Young Frontrunners

The Jays are playing the Indians this week, and we'll be lucky enough to watch arguably the top two pitchers in the AL pitch on consecutive days. They won't get a chance to face off against each other - Doc pitches tomorrow against Byrd, and Lee goes Sunday vs Richmond.

Lee's a great story - a guy who came back from pretty much the worst year of his career, where he'd spent some time in AAA, to absolutely dominating the AL.

Doc is doing what he's always done - eating up a ton of innings while putting out a dominant performance. For what it's worth, I think he's having the best year of his brilliant career.

Lee's got a better chance of winning the Cy Young if he keeps this up - he's got all the pretty stats that writers go for in Win/Loss record (15-2 for Lee vs 13-8 for Doc). Lee also has a 2.58 ERA, slightly better than Doc's impressive 2.77 ERA. I don't expect the writers to look at much more than ERA, K's, and Win/Loss record, so if Lee can keep this up he'll probably get the majority of the votes.

But does that mean that he's actually been the best pitcher in the league, deserving of the award? I'll take a look here to find out if Lee's really deserving.

Lee has a phenomenal K:BB rate at 127:22, good enough for a 5.77 K:BB rate. Doc's ain't that bad either, at 149:29, which gives him a 5.13 K:BB rate. Doc makes up for it with a 1.98 GB rate. Cliff isn't the groundball specialist that Doc is, and he comes in with a 1.14 GB:FB ratio.

I usually look at ERA+ to help when the pitching stats are very close like they are here. Cliff Lee is the winner in that, with an incredible 168 to Doc's 151. Now, if I was to base this solely on the ERA+, Lee would be the winner. But there's one more stat that's in Halladay's favour.

Roy's pitched 175 1/3 innings, while Lee has pitched 153 2/3 innings. So to this point in the season, Halladay has thrown 21 2/3 innings more than Lee. Halladay is projected to throw 242 innings (!!!) while Lee is projected to throw 214.

I think the amount of innings thrown by Doc' gives him a bit of an advantage over Lee. Lee's stats may be better, but by pitching more Halladay has had a bigger impact on the Jays team. And if the projections pan out, Doc will end up throwing nearly 30 innings more than Lee.

If you look back to last year, a similar situation occurred. CC Sabathia won the Cy Young award over Beckett, despite Beckett posting arguably better numbers. The reason CC won - or at least most likely won - is the fact he pitched nearly 40 innings more than Beckett.

When the season's over, I still think Lee will win the award. He's got the pretty stats I mentioned early, and in those stats he's significantly better than Doc. But if these guys keep pitching like they do now, I think that at the end of the year, Halladay's the one who should be winning the award.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

One of the more funner aspects of this blogging game, for me at least, is digging up names, hashing out potential trades and speculating on what it would take to make it happen. If that's your bag, too, I strongly encourage you to read Will's case for Milton Bradley: he's cheap, he's a proven bat, he's an upgrade on Stew, and he's currently held by a Trader Jack GM. Git. 'Er. Done!

That was one of the more beautifully pitched efforts of recent memory from Shaun Marcum last night, ranking just behind Dustin McGowan's near no-no against the Rockies and Doc's 10-inning CG against the Tigers (both last year). Bringing him out for the 9th after sitting on the bench for a half an hour was, in retrospect, a bad idea, but like you wouldn't have done it, too. Is there anyone out there who doesn't believe in this kid by now? He's made The Oracle giddy, so you know he must be something special.

Is is indeed possible that neither J-Mac or Eckstein hit the DL? Hmm. I haven't read anyone else comment on it, but did you think that Eckstein's crazy dive on a flyball he had no hope of catching was comic and excessive? What I'm saying is, feeling the pressure of some lost PT to a superior defender, it looked like he over exerted himself in a vain attempt at a web gem. That sits ill with me.

Troy Percival may be getting it done as the Rays closer, but did he go to the David Wells School of Physical Conditioning in the offseason? I suppose his improbable comeback still counts as one of the feel good stories of the past calender year, but still. Yer fat!

ELSEWHERE:

* Etobicoke's Joey Votto has been unshackled. Scott Hattewho?

* Are any of us actually taken in by this "Cliff Lee, ace" hoax? He's off to a fantastic start and at age 29 he's never been better than average+ over a full season. He appears to have taken last year's intense suckage to heart, but there's no way his current success is sustainable. I could look up his BABip, which I assume is ridiculously and unsustainably low, but I just can't be asked.

* Obtained as part of the Johan Santana deal, a lot of people assumed this kid wasn't ready for primetime. He and his cycle beg to differ. And isn't speed, defense and a .720 OPS exactly what the Twins look for out of their ideal player?

* Roger Clemens has some 'splainin' to do before John Law. And the US Olympic Baseball team wants no part of him for Beijing '08.

* A-Rod is expected to be ready for action next week. Hoo-ray.

-- Johnny Was