Prospects!

John Sickels has his Top 20 Jays prospect list up and it makes for great reading. While the order is somewhat different, his to 5, top 8, and top 10 are the same guys that are on my list and 9 of 10 match up with Baseball American's Top 10 list. There seems to be a pretty strong consensus about who the top guys are.

Sickels does have a few ranking worth noting-
* He has David Cooper #3 which is the highest I've seen him;
*He thinks Justin Jackson will hit;
*He has Eric Thames at #12 which is a very impressive ranking;
*Luis Perez at #13 surprised me;
*Andrew Liebel at #14 is encouraging;
*Chad Beck, the pitcher acquired from Arizona for David Eckstien, comes in at #19 which shocks me (in a pleasant way);

If you are a prospect hound, you probably already know about Sickels site but if not, check it out.

~WillRain

The Ever Popular Top Prospect List!

'Tis the season and all that rubbish, eh?

Anyone who spends their time writing about baseball teams marks as one of their high holy days that time of the year when you get to make your own list of top prospects. I realize I'm not unique in doing that (I tried to be original with the positional reports) but it's a given that I had to do it. It's not the first or the last. Batters' Box had theirs up over three days in early October, Bluebird Banter posted their top 30 just this week, and the grandaddy of them all, Baseball America gets around to the Jays next Friday. So it's as good a time as any for me to put my spin on the subject.

I'll spare you the gimmick of a reverse order listing since I've already given you a pretty good idea of what I think of most of these guys. What I'm taking into account here mainly is two factors - first, how good a player will be at his ceiling, and second, mainly as a tie-breaker between two similar guys, how close he is to helping the major league squad. With just a couple of exceptions, I tried to stay away from young players new to the organization that had low-level playing time. Preliminaries out of the way then:

1. Travis Snider - RF: I can't wait to see where Snider ranks on BA's top 100. He could possibly be a top 10 player, the Jays first since Vernon Wells was #4 in 2000.

2. Brett Cecil - LHP: Given the fact that he matched potential #1 overall prospect David Price stat for stat this year, it will be interesting to see how much recognition Cecil gets. He might be a step behind Price in pure stuff but he has gotten results.

3. JP Arencebia - C: JPA is still pounding the ball in the AFL and he's drawn almost as many walks in his 80 Arizona plate appearances (5) as he did in 269 PA in New Hampshire (7). There is almost as much excitement among Jays fans to see him in the majors as their is Snider.

4. David Cooper - 1B: The 2008 first round pick sailed through the minors all the way to Hi-A Dunedin this year and looked to be the "advanced bat" JP described him as. His glove work is below-average, but he looks like he's going to be an impressive hitter, albeit there's some uncertainty whether he'll have mid-range power (say in the mid-20's) or exceptional (30+) power.

5. Justin Jackson - SS: It's difficult for some people to grasp why Jackson turns up so high on so many lists. Jackson is still a bundle of raw skills which don't always translate into pretty stats at 19. But there's a lot about Jackson that reminds you of Alex Gonzalez - that would be Gonzalez the one time #4 prospect in baseball (in '94, Delgado was #5 that year), not the Gonzo who thought he was a power hitter and pissed away a promising career swinging for the fences. Hopefully Jackson avoids the same mistakes.

6. Ricky Romero - LHP: Keith law said this week that he could see Romero breaking camp with the Jays and that he liked Romero's future better than Purcey's.

7. Brad Mills - LHP: Could this guy finally be the next Jimmy Key?

8. Kevin Aherns - 3B: Like Jackson, the overall stat line did not impress, but Jays personnel say he's right on track for a 19-year-old in A ball. Jays fans would love to start seeing a hint of what justified the Chipper Jones comparisons, though.

9. Scott Campbell - 2B: Said to be a work in progress with the glove, his bat is probably major league ready now and his bating eye certainly is. He was getting some appearances at 3B in the AFL, which he might have the tools for, but he doesn't have the power that is traditionally associated with the hot corner. If he were a SS he'd be maybe #5 on the list but I assume if the Jays thought he'd work there it would have been tried already.

10. Marc Rzepczynski - LHP: An early season injury and a bit of a traffic jam held him in Lansing all season while others got promoted. Should move quickly in '09.

11. Eric Eiland - CF: Like Jackson, the casual observer has to wonder at this ranking. But as I've pointed out before, Alex Rios didn't impress anyone statistically until he hit AA at age 22. Eiland has mad tools, don't write him off.

12. Brad Emaus - 2B/3B: Emaus improved month to month all season long and hasn't stopped yet. During the regular season he had more walks that strikeouts . . . in Hawaii he has a ratio of 13:5. In 59 at-bats in the HWL he has an OPS of .986. He has more power than Campbell, and is a better baserunner. My guess is that this is the man who takes over for Scott Rolen unless the Jays bring in someone from outside the organization before 2011.

13. Brian Jeroloman - C: He's never going to be an exciting hitter. But guys like Mike Matheny, Brad Ausmus, and Brian Schneider stay in the majors for 10 years or more with defense like Jeroloman's.

14. John Tolisino - 2B: One of the Jays "great eight" 2007 draftees, Tolisino was mostly a disappointment this year, but Jays player development people still think highly of his bat. He is going to have to hit though, because his future is probably in LF.

15. Balbino Fuenmayor - 3B: as an 18-year-old the international signing found his bat and lived up to his clippings. He may have just scratched the surface. JP mentioned on JaysTalk late in the season something about moving him to 1B next year. The reviews of his defense have not been that bad (though he is raw) and the move might have something to do with crowing at 3B in the low minors (2008 draftee Rob Sobolewski is three years older and normal progression for both players would have them at Lansing in '09. Hopefully the Jays don't write off the idea of Balbino playing third this early.

16. Adam Loewen - OF/1B: A recent report on Loewen's joining the Hawaiian Winter League mentioned Loewen at 1B, but a look at the system depth chart would one to believe he has a clearer path to a major league job in the outfield. Nevertheless, Loewen is a legitimate prospect as a hitter and towards the middle of 2010 we should have an idea just how promising.

17. Kyle Ginley - RHP: The hard-throwing starter battled through a series of nagging injuries which slowed his progression this year but he's got plus stuff when he's right.

18. Robert Ray - RHP: Blossomed in 2008 for his best minor league season yet, Ray has a plus fastball and good overall stuff, but given the Jays pitching depth, his best bet to make the majors as a starter is a trade. Still, he could be a fine set-up reliever for the Jays when he arrives.

19. Tim Collins - LHP: Plenty has been written already about the Little Giant and a lot of it implies his future is as a SP. I confess I'm pretty skeptical that a guy this size is going to hold up as a major league starter. But he sure looks like he has the stuff to make an impressive reliever. We'll have to see how it translates to higher levels.

20. Robert Sobolewski - 3B: Still a bit rough around the edges at 3B but said to have the raw ability. At his age, he needs to play full season ball which prompts a bit of crowding at the position in A ball. Has the potential to skip over Aherns with a strong performance.

21. Davis Romero - LHP: A victim of the numbers game, in some systems it would be a given that D-Ro would be penciled into the major league staff, but between the wealth of potential LH starters around him, and the surprise emergence of Jesse Carlson, the opportunities are less obvious. One hopes that Romero would have some good value as a second or third players in a package trade.

22. Johemyn Chavez - LF: Had a "write off" year with pretty much nothing good to say for it, the guy still has a ton of tools and can't be totally dismissed yet. But he needs to break out in '09.

23. Tyler Pastornicky - SS: Like many of the Jays prospects, Pastornicky is said to have intangibles that are off the chart. Great baseball instincts and a passion to succeed. He also displayed a pretty good bat for his first taste of pro ball and he's said to be a talented defender.

24. Andrew Leibel - RHP: Taking this one mostly on faith and draft position. We'll know more about his future a year from now.

25. Kenny Rodriguez - RHP: This is probably the only top prospect list you'll see with the Cuban refugee on it. A year from now this ranking will either look stupid or genius.

Honorable mention: Three players who are older or have a spottier history but who could turn heads further this season...

Scott Richmond - RHP: May get a notable number of innings for the Jays in '09
Brian Dopirak - 1B: If he shows he has figured out higher minors pitching, he could regain legitimate prospect status
Bryan Bullington - RHP: Old to be called a prospect, but it's the second year back from surgery so he'll impress this year or be completely regulated to bust status.

Other names to watch for potential inclusion next year: Eric Thames (CF), Kenny Wilson (CF), Jon Talley (C/1B), Joel Collins (C), Joel Cerrano (RHP), Robert Bell (RHP), Jon Del Campo (2B), Alan Farina (RHP), Luis Perez (LHP), Zach Dials (RHP)

* * * * *

A shoutout this week to the re-booted Mopupduty blog. Not only did Mathias go great lengths to provide profound insight into the history of the Jays' best manes, but he created a video illustration to drive home the point. You just can't find analysis like that anymore!

~WillRain

Farm Report: Catchers

Continuing my series of posts looking at the Jays' best prospects, position-by-position, I come to the offensive position at which the Jays enjoy the most depth. So well stocked are the Jays here that (a) they dealt their former top prospect at the position in August; and (b) this list will be more than five players long. But that doesn't mean that all these players are sure fire major leaguers. After the top two, there are question marks about the rest, but at least they are players with something that makes them notable, not always the case at other positions.

It would not be fair to make this list without mentioning the departed Robinzon Diaz. Diaz first caught the eye of prospect watchers at the age of 19 when he posted a .929 OPS in under 200 ABs. Since then his OPS has consistently fluctuated in the low-to-mid .700's and he's never posted over 4 HR in a season or more than 25 XBH. He doesn't walk or strike out much. His high regard as a prospect has always been "potential" and not results. If I'm not making this clear - let me: he was always over-rated as a prospect and we will NOT miss him. Cool name or no.

Now, on with the list.

1. JP Arencibia - 23, 6'1" 215, 2007 1st round

Few prospects, beyond Travis Snider, have captured the imagination of Jays fans like JPA. That's probably more a reflection of just how very bad this franchise has been at developing productive offensive catchers than it is the potential all-star abilities Arencibia may or may not have. If you go back and remind yourself that Ernie Whitt was an expansion draftee, and Pat Borders was a very bad hitter his whole career (except one very important week) then you realize the Greg Myers is the only even decent hitter at the position the Jays have ever produced. JP Arencibia stands to be potentially the best ever in this weak field.

The book on him out of Tennessee was that he was a great power hitter to all fields, but that his defense was very much a work in progress. As a pro he's been everything the Jays could have wanted as a hitter, and more - though he definitely has work to do on pitch recognition. Behind the plate, he's gotten much praise for the speed at which his defense has improved. He was always rated as having a strong arm, while his footwork was said to be poor. The Jays thought that was a teachable skill and so far they are impressed. Still, it's not impossible that JPA might eventually be tried at the hot corner if the Jays' 3B prospects falter and their other catchers impress. But there's no indication any such effort is remotely under consideration now. The Jays seem to think he'll be an at least competent major league defender, such that you can keep his prolific bat behind the plate where its value is maximized.

That said, Jays fans are perhaps a tad bit ahead of themselves on being impressed with his bat.

YES, Arencibia hit 27 home runs between Dunedin and AA this year. But his .798 OPS at AA was not a ready-for-prime-time result. Jays fans seem to think that JPA will start 2009 in AAA and be on the bubble to get promoted to the majors at any time. I disagree. I think, especially in light of the Jays now fielding a AAA team in the Pacific Coast League, that Arencibia will spend the first couple of months in AA and if he performs well there, then get the promotion to AAA. Be prepared to be impressed with his numbers in the hitter friendly PCL, but don't let that fool you into thinking JPA is the next Mike Piazza. He MAY be, but much less impressive major leaguers had nice power numbers in the minors. None other than Rod Barajas hit 23 HR in High-A ball at 22. So be optimistic, hope for an All-Star, of course. But also be prepared to accept him as a good mid-range offensive catcher, like for instance a faster Benji Molina.
And don't count on him being a regular major leaguer until 2010.

ETA: September 2009

2. Brian Jeroloman - 24, 6'0" 195, 2006 6th round.

In many ways, Jeroloman is the polar opposite of Arencibia. His defensive is superlative, such that many said he would have been among the best in the majors two years ago. His offense, however, was and is a work in progress. That said, the improvements in Jero's bat parallel those in JPA's defense. The one offensive skill Jeroloman has in spades is exactly the one Arencibia yet lacks - the ability to draw the free pass. In 2007, Jeroloman drew an astounding 85 walks in 100 games at Dunedin. For a hitter who only delivered 17 XBH in those 100 games that's just nuts. In 2008, Jeroloman increased his slugging percentage and lost very little of his OBP, but he's still never going to be an impressive hitter.

As a major league starter, you'd be thinking Brad Ausmus, or Brian Schneider, or Mike Matheny, only with a better OBP. But he's also - like the aforementioned - the kind of guy who can have a long major league career even if he never puts bat on ball in an impressive fashion because his glove is just that good. Depending on who the Jays sign to back up Barajas, and how that person works out in 2009, you could see Jeroloman as the back-up for the Jays as early as mid-season in 2009, but when Arencibia is ready, his bat is likely to carry him into the starting role and if Jeroloman remains with the Jays, it will be in the reserve role.

ETA: July/August 2009

3. Curtis Thigpen - 26, 5'11" 190, 2004 2nd round

For the last three consecutive years, Baseball America ranked Thigpen among the Jays top 10 prospects. He was never regarded as a potential all-star, but he seemed a safe bet to be a decent contributor to the Jays future. After his 2008 season, we can safely predict that Thigpen won't be on anyone's top prospect list. While his 2007 season wasn't up to his previous standards, most thought it was the sort of decline some players - especially catchers - tend to have in their first pass at AAA. But his 2008 was about as bad an offensive year as he could have possibly had and without significant injury. His OPS in Syracuse was a miserable .577 and he was consistently poor throughout the season. That said, Cito Gaston was reasonably impressed with his defense, and there's a reasonable possibility that Thigpen could open the season as Barajas' caddy. There is a not insubstantial possibility that the Jays' three-headed hitting coach crew will be able to figure out how to get Thigpen up to at least a marginal level with the bat.

ETA: 2009

4. Joel Collins - 23, 6'1" 195, 2007 10th round

Collins is a bit of a mystery. Every report I've seen on him says hes got skills on both sides of the ball, yet the Jays kept him at short season Auburn almost the entire season where he was clearly not being challenged offensively (he had a .913 OPS) and often he found himself as the DH in favor of other players. On the one hand, you want to believe the good reports, on the other, you can't ignore that he was pretty much the same age as Arencibia and still in short-season ball. Compounding the situation is the fact that the promotions throughout the system turn off of the needs of Arencibia. That means that traffic backs up behind him and that's not good for any prospect that needs to be challenged. Still, Collins HAS to be at Lansing to start the season and it'd be in his best interests to be in Dunedin before the end of the year.

IF he makes the majors, he'll be a marginal back-up unless he makes a very surprising development.

ETA: late 2012/early 2013

5. Jonathan Talley - 20, 6'4, 220, 2007 13th round

The left-handed hitting Talley hit for noticeable power in rookie ball, but his K rate was way too high. He's said to be a pretty good fielder but it's an easy observation that he's big for a catcher. My guess would be that if Talley progresses well enough with his bat, the day will come when he finds himself a first baseman. It'll be interesting to see how he hits at Lansing next year. In fact, it'll be interesting to see where he plays given the need for Collins to be behind the plate and the equally pressing need to see other prospects at 1B.

6. Jon Jaspe - 24, 5'11" 200, signed as undrafted FA in 2003

The Venezuelan switch hitter was also a bit old for his level, even for a catcher, but he was having a breakout offensive season with the bat before an August swoon. It's hard to say to what extent August "normalized" his production, and to what extent he can be judged to have become an offensive prospect based on the rest of his season (he had an .850 OPS as of July 31). This was an important season for Jaspe as he was handed a 50 game steroid ban in 2007 and he needed to prove his pop was legit. On the other hand, I've not found much information about the quality of the man's defense.

Jaspe will be In Dunedin to start the season, I suspect, but there will be some competition for playing time with the next man on our list, who's half a step ahead of Jaspe on the organizational ladder. One of the two would like to be the guy who gets to go to AA when Arencibia moves up to Las Vegas. It's hard to get a read on what kind of major leaguer Jaspe will be, but I think it's legitimate to call him a prospect.

ETA: 2012

7. Matt Liuzza - 25, 5'11" 220, 2006 19th round

Liuzza is ranked this low for the sole reason that he was too old for his level by any measure. On sheer ability, he may be the third best catcher in the system, but it's hard to get a read on a 24 year old who split his season in two levels of A Ball. Still, the right-handed hitting Liuzza posted a .789 OPS at Lansing before a late July promotion to Dunedin where he started slow for a week or so before closing out like gangbusters - posting an .815 OPS in August at the higher level, that mostly due to the fact that he drew 15 walks in 20 games. An on-base skill level he had not previously exhibited. So a healthy degree of skepticism about the man's hitting ability is warranted. Still, he was voted the best defensive catcher by the coaches in the MWL so he's not without talent.

All things considered, however, Liuzza gives the impression of being the next Eric Kratz. His ceiling may be in the Ken Huckaby/Jason Phillips category of player.

ETA: perhaps a series of brief call-ups starting in 2013

I'll also mention in passing that the Jays drafted a catcher in the 9th round of the 2008 draft named Antonio Jimenez who was said to be a mild steal for that low a pick. that said, I do not know enough about the Puerto Rican to give you much more than this - he was BA's 200th ranked player going into the draft, with the potential to move higher, but for an elbow injury just before the draft. He's one to watch next season.

Next time - Outfielders

~WillRain

J-Jack is back! (And the rest of the Farm Report)

The minor league season being now roughly 2/3 over (and me being too impatient to wait until the end of the month to brag about it) I figured I'd give you a quick review of my current top 12 prospects. These are my own personal rankings of course.

1. Travis Snider (OF) - The Jays consensus best prospect has, as many of you know, been struggling in July after having been very good in May and June. The power stroke is still there, but the average and on-base precentage have waned considerably. There's no reason at all to worry about him, but maybe it's a good thing as it should dampen any enthusiasm for the idea among some broadcasters and fans for bringing him to the majors. For a 20 year old in AA, he's still one of the best prospects in the game. Even so, don't look for him to be a regular in the majors before 2010 unless there's a major injury next season.

2. Brett Cecil (LHP) - The 22 year old LHP is also in AA already in his second season in the Jays' system. Going back to the end of May, Cecil has an ERA of 1.80 in his last 10 starts. He has a 4.17 K/BB ratio and more than a K per inning. I rank him ahead of Purcey only because of their relative ages. It seems likely to me that if Purcey gets the call to the majors for an extended stay, that Cecil will get a chance at AAA in his place. One caution - He's still averaging less than 5 innings a game and if he is going to be a starter for the Jays (as opposed to the successor to BJ Ryan) then he's going to have to have some endurance built up. As a reliever, he might make the majors in the middle of 2009, as a starter, not before 2010 unless there's an emergency.

3. David Purcey (LHP) - Purcey has - as you know if you are a loyal reader of this blog - done about all he can do at AAA and, like Adam Lind before him, merely awaits an extended opportunity to prove he belongs in the majors. His control issues are a thing of the past, his ERA this year is a sterling 2.76 - take away one bad game and it's 2.38 - and his K rate is just what you want from a top prospect. It's true he is 26 now but it's not unusual for a lefty to take longer (something to remember if you are writing off Rickey Romero as a bust). If AJ is traded, or McGowan is shelved for the year (which I doubt either of those happening) then Purcey gets an extended look this season. If not, he's the presumptive candidate to replace AJ next year.

4. JP Arencebia (C) - No hitter in the Jays' system has done more to improve his standing this season than JPA. His defense, seen as sub-par coming into the season has gotten good reviews but it's his bat that has really opened some eyes. He's hammered 21 homers this year, 8 of those in 111 AA at bats. Some have pointed to his lack of walks as a concern, and logically that does point to a potential weakness against higher level pitchers, the counter argument is that as long as AA pitchers are not striking him out inordinately...as long as they are not making him be selective...he has little incentive to. When you are raking - you rake. Best case? JPA begins to nudge Barajas or Diaz aside somewhere after the break next season...but I'm going to guess 2010 is more realistic.

5. Justin Jackson (SS) - J-Jack (yes I'm going to harp on that nickname until it sticks) has had a season that defies easy analysis but being the optimist that I am, I'm going to cast it in a positive light. Jackson burned through April with a .941 OPS, then, late in the month, he got hurt. Now, the nature of the minors being what it is, I don't know what was wrong with him but he missed something around 7-10 games. When he returned, his hot bat didn't. He was bad in May, disastrous in June, and in danger of wasting the promising start. Then came July. Don't ask me why these things happen, it makes no sense, but after posting an OPS of .453 in June, Jackson is currently sitting on 1.002 for July. Not only is he hitting for average (.356) but he has more homers in 17 July games than in the rest of his season before July.

I've been making the Tony Fernandez comparison because of the obvious physical similarities and the age and defensive ability being similar but, the big difference here, Tony had a wonderful BB/K ration at this level. J-Jack has one more typical of a raw young hitter. It will be a skill he needs to develop as he progresses. That said, it's hard to see the Jays rushing Jackson through the minors the way Fernandez was - I'll cautiously suggest that you are looking at 2012 before you see a lot of J-Jack at the RC.

6. David Cooper (1B) - The Jays may not have gotten their first or second choice in this June's draft, but so far the man they got is acquitting himself very very well. First baseman David Cooper, while not an intimidating physical presence, has done nothing but punish pitching since beginning pro ball. Any questions about his ability to hit with a wood bat are long in the past. Cooper is crushing Lo-A pitching and barring a big slump will jump to Dunedin, I predict, sometime in the first week of August.

Mike Wilner rightly cautions enthusiastic prospect watchers (i.e. me) to remember the cautionary tale of Vito Chiaravalloti who annihilated rookie level pitching at 22 but never could solve AA pitching and is a big star in the Indy leagues now. That taken under advisement, it's hard not to like the path Coop is on. If this keeps up a 2011 arrival (on the heels of the departing Lyle Overbay) would not be an outrageous projection.

7. Kevin Aherns (3B) - The first pick in the 2007 draft, Ahrens is another man who seems to enjoy playing baseball in July. Over his first 70 games, Aherns was having a pretty pedestrian year (a .706 OPS) and, were it not for the 3B prospect taken in this years draft, might have been in real danger of repeating Lo-A ball. So far in July he's hitting much better, posting an .870 OPS for the month. Hopefully the 19 year old has turned a corner and this is not just a blip (it is only 17 games after all). Still, he may well need as much as four more minor league seasons before he contends for a job in the majors (which is why I contend that no later than the winter of 2009 the Jays ought to get Scott Rolen's name on a two year extension).

8. Scott Campbell (2B) - Perhaps the best story in the Jays' minor league system, Campbell is trying to be the first native of New Zealand to make the majors - and doing a damned fine job of it too. By all rights Campbell has earned a promotion to AAA but the Jays - apparently in a move to let him work more on his work-in-progress defensive abilities, are content to leave his prodigious bat in AA probably for the rest of this season. Campbell doesn't strike out much, knows how to take a walk, and has been a model of consistency at the plate.

But due to his lack of on-field experience in his native land, some of the mechanics of the position (notably turning the deuce) are still not where the Jays want them. That being the case, his progression will be deliberate. In the majors, unless he makes great strides on defense, he looks very much like the next Frank Catalanotto - and that's not at all a bad thing to be. A good manager will find plenty of at-bats for a hitter like the Kiwi.

9. Eric Eiland (CF) - Speaking of a work in progress, take a look at EE. This guy, so the scouts say, has as many tools as anyone drafted in his class but due to an injury in his senior year he fell into the lap of the Blue Jays. But tools or not, Eiland is having some difficulty at Lansing. Each month has been worse than the one before, and in his last 10 he's hitting .100 with only his perfect record in stolen bases (15 for 15) as a saving grace. But based on talent, keep an eye on him. If he takes a long time coming that's fine because Vernon Wells is not going anywhere for at least three years and maybe six. If Eiland pans out, he'll be ready before the Jays have a place for him to play.

10. Brian Jeroloman (C) - Jeroloman is a different sort of guy, he's a guy who has perhaps the best defensive skills in all of the minor leagues but who had always had questions about his offense. But last season Jeroloman served notice that he's not necessarily the next Brad Ausmus by drawing 85 walks. This year he's kept that batting eye and added some power. He's already matched his total of doubles from last year and doubled his HR total. He's hitting an incredible 1.237 (OPS) in his last 10 games and his season OPS is .807 so far.

Jeroloman faces the difficulty of having Arencebia passing him by (through no fault of his own) and the potential that a much deserved promotion might be delayed. I, for one, think that if/when the Jays trade Zaun, that they either take Diaz straight to the majors and promote Jeroloman to AAA, or, if they feel Diaz isn't right yet, they bypass AAA and bring Jeroloman to the majors. For all the pleas for Snider or Arencibia to be called up, this kid is the one that is most likely to not embarrass himself if he's recalled.

11. Marc Rzepczynski (LHP) - Here's another guy in need of a promotion. He's got 14 starts at Lo-A as a 22 year old, a college pitcher can move rapidly (see Cecil) and hopefully the Jays will find a way to get him half a dozen starts or so at Dunedin. The Jays can afford to let him take as many as three more years in the minors (as far as we know now!) but he may not need that long.

12. John Tolisino (2B) - H was having a good little productive year on July 1 and has gone into a slump that's the opposite number to Ahren's surge. He has a .514 OPS so far this month and it's driven down his season OPS to .711 which is nothing to be pleased with. He needs to pick it up soon or he's going to fall down this list.

Others to watch:

Robert Sobolewski (3B) - Widely regarded as a first round talent stolen in the fourth round by the Jays this year, Sobo's college year was extended into the College World Series and he may be exhausted. In the pros he's struggling to get going, hitting only .176 so far.

Robinzon Diaz (C) - A severely sprained ankle has washed out the bulk of Diaz's year and maybe fundamentally altered his career as he now hears the deafening footfalls of APA and Jeroloman.

Brad Mills (LHP) - The only differences in Mills and Zep is that Mills is about half a year older, and Zep started the season injured. Mills followed 15 great starts in Lansing with four even better ones in Dunedin.

Rickey Romero (LHP) - Everyone's favorite whipping boy, not without reason. But as I mentioned above, one should tread lightly before writing off a 23 year old LHP. With only one really bad start in his last eight (going back to his first in June), Rickey-Ro is attempting to pull this season, and his prospect status, out of the ditch. Over that period, his ERA is 4.03 and in his last six, it's 3.18 - is that a blip, or has he really figured out what his issue was? Time will tell.

Sleepers:

Jon Jaspe (C) - Hot hitting Venezaulean catcher at Lansing isn't slowing down; Luis Sanchez (SS) - under the radar, this AA shortstop has been quite good since May 1; Brian Dorpiak (1B) - former highly regarded Cub prospect, brought in as organizational filler - the Vito rule applies but he needs a promotion; Adam Amar (1B) - undrafted out of college, the man is destroying rookie ball. Again, you gotta invoke the Vito Rule but....just the same, Dorpiak to NH, Cooper to Dunedin, and Amar to Lansing wouldn't hurt anything.

The strength of the system is clearly catchers, and left handed pitchers. Those two things have a lot of value around the league. Maybe we haven't as bad a system as some experts claim.

~WillRain