Mench is back

With Wells out for the next month, Kevin Mench has been recalled to take his spot. I'm not going to get into how stupid it would be to bring up Snider now, but I'm glad they called up Mench.

This team is still struggling significantly against Southpaws and needs another strong RH hitter in the lineup. The Jays are 30th in the majors in OPS vs Southpaws, so I think it's really important to give Mench a second chance.

One of the biggest problems in the lineup is Lyle Overbay with a 241/300/277 (577 OPS) batting line against lefties. Overbay has been solid against right handed pitching, but he needs to be platooned at this point vs lefties. Putting Wilkerson at 1B and Mench in RF (or vice-versa) should be an offensive upgrade and give this team a chance vs lefties. I'll admit that I was wrong about Mench, and that he hasn't been a big help against lefties yet. But it's only been 42 at bats, and I have to believe that given a second chance that he'll make the most of it.

Earlier in the year I mentioned how Eckstein was traditionally stronger vs RHP and weaker vs lefties, but this year he's been the opposite. He's got an 830 OPS vs lefties, and without looking up the numbers I'd bet he's one of the best hitters on the team against left handed pitchers. While his number's as a DH haven't been impressive to date, it's been very creative by Cito to use him in that spot so far. The bonus is that McDonald gets to play against lefties, and I believe his bat will improve only against left handed pitching as time goes on. Plus with Mac at short and Rolen at third, the defense on the Jays left side of the infield is bordering on historically good.

Twitchy.

Everybody Loves Adam

Sometimes crazy things happen. Crazy like a team that didn't ever come back to win after the 7th inning doing it twice in the same series, crazy like young Adam Lind stroking the game winning hit off a southpaw closer who'd limited left-handed hitters to a disheartening .163/.269/.256 line this year. Like most of you, we're watching through thick and thin and will take exciting baseball whenever we can get it.

The blogosphere is full of all sorts. I had noted previously that young Adam had garnered some attention from a talented gay photographer (whose work I punked a few times for posts), but it has come to my attention that he has fans from the other side of the coin, such as Christian Mike who claims to be one of Lind's high-school classmates. A particularly heartwarming passage written back in May:

I followed his progress from high school until now and I must admit that as proud I am about his success on the field, I'm even more proud of the person he is off the field. I always remember him as a fun guy to be around. I remember he wasn't the smartest in math and he'd ask me for help - I remember thinking about having him sign my math homework or something because I knew one day he'd be a star. While he hasn't entirely broken through and become a star at the highest level yet, his time will come. He may be headed back to AAA soon, but he will be back.

Might I suggest the 2009 Jays go with the slogan "Adam Lind: something for everyone!"

I'm in a plagarizing mood, so I thought I'd rip off some material from Batter's Box pertinent to the coming AJ Burnett trade (to the Phillies). Tony Lacava has been dispatched to scout the Phillies AA affiliate for young talent as you probably know already and roughly 4-5 names have been mentioned as Jays trade targets. Phuture Phillies gives us a snapshot of each (with their prospect ranking in the Phi system):

01. Adrian Cardenas, 2B (A+; .316/.390/.486)

Cardenas followed up a nice 2007 at Low A by raking from day 1 at Clearwater. He’s hitting for average and also for emerging power this season. Last year his XBH % was 27.9%, this year he’s at 32%, showing continued improvement. He could draw a few more walks, but he’s not striking out a ton, and he clearly can make consistent contact. His power numbers were helped by a May spike where he 10 extra base hits out of his 21 total hits, including 4 HR. While he’s not consistently showing the power yet, glimpses like his May run show what he’s capable of doing. He also has 4 triples and is a perfect 8 for 8 in stolen bases. He’s not a burner and likely won’t steal more than 5-6 bags a year in the majors, but it seems like he has solid base running instincts. His defensive position is the only thing left to figure out, the rest should just be a natural progression. Stock remains the same, maybe even up a bit.

02. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (2A; 88.0 IP, 3.78 ERA)

People seem to be down on Carrasco, but I think its simply a case of expectations being a bit too high after his breakout 2006. He’s pitched this season as a 21 year old in AA, and he’s more than holding his own. The walk rate (3.27/9) could be a bit better, but he’s struck out 85 hitters, much improving his rate from last season. He’s much more effective against lefties because of his changeup, but righties are still hitting him hard, and he’ll need to tighten his curveball. When that piece of the puzzle clicks, you’re looking at a pretty damn good #3 SP, maybe even a bit more. Stock remains the same.

05. Lou Marson, C (2A; .348/.464/.443)

I was a big Marson believer, and thought a season ago after 2006 that he was a good candidate to take a step forward. He’s taken 3 steps forward this year, and at this point, it would take a decent argument to convince me he isn’t our best prospect. If he was putting up a line like this in A ball, I’d be less convinced, but he’s doing it at AA, at a young age, while continuing to handle the pitching staff. Lou has his face on the sidebar of this site…that should tell you all you need to know. Stock up as high as it can go.

06. Jason Donald, SS (2A; .297/.396/.466)

I was a big Jason Donald believer, and he’s starting to convince others that his breakout last year was real. He was always a guy who seemed to not quite achieve what many thought he could, dating back to college, but it looks like he’s erasing those thoughts now. The walk rate remains the most impressive aspect of his breakout, and he is hitting for passable power. The next test; a move to 3B? Stock up a tick.

15. Greg Golson, OF (AA; .299/.335/.450)

A year ago, I was ready to write Golson off, but he showed flashes last season and got off to a hot start this year. He’s (predictably) cooled off in the last month or so before getting hurt, hitting .132 with 12 K and only 1 BB in his last 10 games. Was that a function of the wrist injury? Either way, he’s shown more positive flashes this season than in any past year, so I’m slightly more optimistic. I know Greg reads blogs and has his feelings hurt when he reads negative stuff, so this should cheer you up Greg; Stock up.

One of JP's stated goals with a Burnett trade is to obtain a young shortstop, so Donald seems to fit the bill. He's a blocked prospect with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley manning the middle infield on the big club and has started to live up to some of the earlier expectations of late. Reviews on his defense have been mixed, but hey, it's not like Michael Young has the best range at short, either. You'd be looking at a 2010 ETA, which means they'd still need another stopgap SS for 2009.

With the catching depth we have in the system, Marson looks like more of a luxury at this point. Expect the Phillies to balk at trading Carrasco, but I suppose the offer sheet can always be improved by adding a reliever along with Burnett. It looks unlikely that Cardenas can play SS.


-- Johnny Was

Wells out 4-6 weeks

If there was any remaining sliver of hope for this season, the twin injuries to McGowan and Wells have now sealed the fate of the 2008 Jays. McLeod at The Globe & Mail reports that Wells has a "grade 2 strain" of his left hamstring. In the same post he reports that Dustin McGowan has no NEW tearing in his shoulder so there is much more hope that it is simply inflamed and with rest he can return, but that would still be at least a month away.

Hopefully the Jays take that as a warning shot regarding pitch counts, as Twitchy has pointed to, but it's still also good news that he doesn't, apparently, have a major issue. In the mean time, it seems almost certain now that David Purcey and John Parrish will both get regular turns over the next month (assuming an AJ deal coincides more or less with Marcum's hoped-for return). Should Marcum's injury keep him out longer, there will be a very interesting discussion of who else might join the team - and you can bet Brett Cecil's name will come up a lot.


The Jays have not revealed who they will add in Vernon's absence, but, interestingly, McLeod asks the following question:

Why not bring up Travis Snider, their No. 1 pick in the draft in 2006? He's hitting .286 in Triple A at Syracuse and leading the team with 13 home runs.

With the way this season is turning for Toronto why not bring him up and start him in the outfield like the Jays are doing with Adam Lind?

At the very least it would give the fans something to cheer about.

I'm not at all sure JP is willing to do that yet - especially given that Snider is not, in point of fact, in AAA Syracuse but in AA New Hampshire - and as anxious as I am to see Snider in the bigs it is legitimate to question his how his strikeout total would translate over such a jump. Conversely, unless you are pining for the return of Shannon Stewart, Kevin Mench or Buck Coats, there's not an obvious stopgap alternative.

My guess is that we WON'T be seeing Snider yet.

~WillRain

I hate to say I told you so...

So the official word on McGowan is that he has a torn rotator cuff. In the article JP says:

"I think right now, we're probably looking at, I don't know exactly how long, but probably longer than four weeks... regarding how much time the pitcher could miss.".

I didn't think much of it at the time until I came across this little gem by Rotoworld:

"Blue Jays placed RHP Dustin McGowan on the 15-day disabled list with soreness in his right shoulder. The team made the decision before finding out the results of his MRI, which isn't a great sign. The team has publicly admitted they're out of it in the last couple days, and will play it very safe with their young pitcher. Dont' be surprised if he's out months instead of weeks. It's worth noting that McGowan threw 125 pitches in a complete game on June 10, and has allowed four runs in each of his five starts since." Huh. How about that. Apparently, McGowan hasn't been the same since he threw 125 pitches in some June 10th game against the Mariners. I just can't seem to remember if anybody had mentioned that it might have been a problem to have McGowan throw a meaningless, complete game against the Mariners since he had to throw 125 pitches in the process. This is why we have pitch counts to protect young pitchers like McGowan. All this nonsense about a torn rotator cuff most likely could have been avoided by him not throwing 125 pitches in that game. It's why I won't buy into the argument that a starter 'earns' or 'deserves' a chance to finish a game, when they have a high pitch count. As you saw, yes, the starter can finish the game strong. But down the line, shit like this is bound to happen. Twitchy.

The Squaredown

Way back in April pretty much everyone was pointing the finger at the Baltimore Orioles (and San Francisco Giants) when the discussion turned the worst teams in baseball, you know, the autolock 100-loss type. You called it, I called it, Wilner called it. Everyone did. I admit that I've done more than my fair share of Oriole-mocking over the years, but then everything changed with one courageous roster move in late March. Yes, the decision to DFA'd half-goblin HGH-user Jay Gibbons, the most loathsome player in baseball.

Even though the O's join us on the south side of the .500 line o' suck in taking the loss last night, I think you would be hard pressed to come up with two more exciting back-to-back games in the same series at any point since... Opening Weekend? There were a couple of nail-biters in LAoA back at the start of June, but they wound up as heart-breaking/infuriating losses rather than heart-warming triumphs. If we're going to enjoy baseball for baseball's sakes, give thanks to that motley collection of sad-sack losers from B-More for putting on an entertaining show for us.

AJ Burnett continues to do a pretty solid Josh Towers c. 2006 impression as he auditions for a trade to a contender. Last night on JaysTalk JP and Wilner addressed the question of whether his piss poor performance of late will affect his trade value, reaching the conclusion that AJ suitors either like him or don't and won't be deterred by a few starts good or bad. Who knows, maybe it's just been bad luck of late (paging some pitch fx magic from the Mockingbird), but the collective exhale we've been building up towards can't come until he does finally get moved.

Dick Griffin believes that AJ is now "indispensible" with McGowan and Marcum out indefinitely, a contention that I politely disagree with. Pride is about the stupidest thing you can play for, especially when it means passing on a trade that would make you better in the future. At this point I could really care less if the Jays finish the year with 85 victories or 75 so long as they set the team up for a better 2009. JP had to recant the white flag insuinuations of his manager a day earlier for the benefit of ticket-buying public, but still, the situation is what it is.

The Sun reports that the erstwhile Dustin McGowan has a torn rotator cuff and we'll be gone for at least a month, perhaps the rest of the season. Here's hoping Dusty recovers well and returns as an integral part of the 2009 Jays; you just don't mess about with the health of a guy with his health track record and importance to the team. It's kind of at the point where this things don't really shock anyone anymore, we've just seen so many injuries over the past 2-3 years. Where does MLB stand on cloning your players in a Korean lab and dusting off model 2.0 when the original is unable to play?

Is it time to reconstitute my man-love posts for Dave Purcey? The AAA All-Star won't get the call immediately, but expect him to join the rotation post-All Star Break if it does turn out that McGowan is lost for the year. Exciting stuff, folks, in a left-handed sort of way.

One thing that sucks: when you live outside of Toronto and can only make it up to about half a dozen games a year because it's a four-hour roundtrip drive from London and the scheduled starter for the first game you'd gone to since April gets injured and you get to see Brian Tallet or Francisco Rosario get the emergency start. This always happens to me, always. Again, this Sunday against the Yankees.

If you're like me and feel the need to do something for the betterment of humanity in an abstract sense, you could do much worse than rounding up a bunch of cans and handing them over to the Lady Jays, who are doing their annual food drive at the Rogers Cente this weekend for the Yankees series. They've got autographed swag, too, for anyone who donates $20 or more. Do the right thing, readers.

-- Johnny Was

McGowan to the d/l

According to foxsports.com, McGowan's been put on the 15 day d/l with Brian Wolfe being recalled. This is terrible news, but the one hope I have is that McGowan's injury problems are the reasons for his struggles. He's been a big disappointment this year, and it'd be easier to accept his issues if it was related to his shoulder. Hopefully it's nothing major, but it doesn't say in the report what the results of the MRI are.

John Parrish is the 'winner' of McGowan's injury as he'll likely stay on with both Marcum & McGowan on the d/l. Edit: TSN says that Tallet will start the final game of the Yankee series.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

Nothing like a comeback, walk-off win to boost your spirits, eh? Eh? Oh yeah, and Dustin McGowan goes in for an MRI this morning after being lifted early last night.

Dusty, who has been probably the second-biggest disappointment in the rotation after AJ Burnett, may or may not join Shaun Marcum and Casey Janssen on the DL. Not jumping to conclusions or anything, but anemic offense aside, I think pretty much all of you would've given up the ghost on this season back in February had you an inkling that all three of those young arms would be lost for part or all of season. The worst part is that Blair seems to think a McGowan injury would prevent a Burnett trade. Groan...

The biggest winner if McGowan does indeed prove to be nursing something is undoubtedly JP Ricciardi, who has for all intents and purposes admitted that this year is over. Not that the rest of us didn't already know that, but the white flag has been officially been run up, which should signal to other GMs that it's time to come calling for our Scott Schoeneweis's and Vinnie Chulks.

At the end of the year JP will be able to say that the team only won 83 games and finished 4th in the division because it was decimated by injuries to Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Jeremy Accardo and the aforementioned young hurlers. (Come to think of it, that is a lot of lost man time due to injury this year...) Next year we'll be healthy and make another run, this group is locked up until 2010.

Most of us accepted that line last year, but probably won't again. That hardly matters though, since the man in the captain's hat probably now has enough ammo to ward off is his own personal firing squad for another year.

The Rich Harden deal has to mean AJ is next? Right?

After starting out the year gangbusters, the flagging D-Backs are considering adding Barry Bonds to their own respective flagging offense according to MLBTR. Hmm, busting out all the stops in order to win... Radical stuff.

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

The first domino has fallen and CC Sabathia is a Brewer. (It would appear that Zach Jackson, punted to the BrewCrew in the Lyle Overbay deal, will be going to Cleveland in the deal. He's been extremely unimpressive in the high minors). Now we can get down to the serious business of moving AJ Burnett.

MLBTR says the Cubs are looking to counter the Brewers by trading for Rich Harden. Why anyone would want to deal with Billy Beane knowing that he usually skins his trade partner on this sort of deal is beyond me. Well, I suppose Burnett looks durable by comparison. They'll be back...

Aside: "Trading AJ", a new romantic comedy staring Seth Rogen and Jonah Hill? A lonely middle-aged executive whose job is on the line finds love...

JP says he won't "blow it up" so expect more of the same if he stays on the job for next year. And I am slowly joining the chorus of those who think Lyle Overbay (sub .400 SLG% again this year) belongs on the shit list.

Now, I'm not saying I won't watch it, but baseball's All-Star Game has gotten pretty weak. How ironic that suits from the country that gave us "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" have come up with the winning democratic concept of "one man, 25 internet votes." The result? Seven Bosox, 7 Cubs, and 4 Yankees, including the egregious selection of Jason Varitek (and only slightly less egregious election of Dustin Pedroia over Ian Kinsler. Seriously, do you know how good Kinsler is?) I'd almost prefer that Doc just skipped the whole thing rather than accept the ignomity of being the sole league-mandated Jay representative.

The Rays are really rolling now, having won 7 in a row, and I think it's about time that we start cheering for them openly. If they get into the playoffs, either the Yankees or Bosox won't. Rejoice! Small victory!

-- Johnny Was

Could AJ stay a Jay the next two years?

I know it sounds crazy, but hear me out. AJ has had a terrible season to date, and despite having terrific stuff teams aren't going to pay him a ton of money coming off a 5.00 ERA season with a poor win/loss record (8-8). I know that's not the best way to judge a pitcher, but for the most part that's what a GM is going to pay for. His walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down compared to his past couple of years, which is a very bad combination.

We all assumed AJ would just opt-out at the end of the year - but nobody expected him to be this bad in his potential walk year. If he keeps this up, at best he'd get a 6-7 million $ deal with a slightly higher option year for 2010. Financially, it wouldn't make sense for him to take that kind of a deal if he's got a shot at making at least 12 per in the next 2 years in Toronto.

It's possible AJ could have a stellar second half. But AJ's going to have to lower his ERA by a good 1 and a half points just to have a shot at a 3-4 year deal where he's making more money than he can earn with the Jays.

So barring an epic second half, is it possible that the Jays may have AJ Burnett for the next two seasons?

Twitchy.

What to do?

Well, even the faintest of hopes for a resurrected season bit the dust in Seattle and even I am forced to concede that this season, one I was convinced was a return to the glory days, has inexplicably and unexplainably veered so throughly into the ditch that to continue to harbor hope is an exercise in masochism. Yes, it's possible we could play .650 ball from now to the end of the season and win 90 games. But I can't work up the passion to hope for it. That being the case, it's time to turn our thoughts to the second most fun activity in baseball - trade speculation.

I have always held the opinion that once you know you are out of it, it's time to think about what next year's roster is going to look like and sell off anyone who has value who is not a part of that vision. This has been, for me, the most frustrating part of the JP-era Jays is that between their summer-long tease and JP's passionate hopefulness, every July we are caught in a no-man's land on the fringe of contention where he can't bring himself to act.

I hope very much that in this, his probable last summer with that opportunity, he manages to cash in and bring us some value in return. Presented here, then, for your reading pleasure, is an attempt at an omnibus review of the market, the chips the Jays have to offer, and what potential return might be worth speculating about. Hopefully it will be comprehensible by the time I am done pulling together what is, in many ways, a very fluid set of circumstances.

Presumed sellers (a group which may grow): Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, San Diego, Colorado, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, Washington.

Presumed buyers (a group which may shrink): Boston, NY (both teams), Tampa Bay, Chicago (both teams), LA (both teams) Arizona, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Atlanta.

Mushy middle (either because of standing or money): Baltimore, Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland, Texas, Florida.

On the Jays' roster, I think we can agree that for various reasons, Wells, Rios, Hill, Lind, Halladay, McGowan, and Marcum are not going anywhere. Rolen and Ryan would take pretty huge offers, I think, but might be moved. Most everyone else on the major league roster could at least be talked about (though not to say none of them would have an important role in 2009).

But that said, for my money, here are the most obvious players that might be moved and my take on their situation.

1. Barajas and/or Zaun: I list this first before AJ because it seems to me there's an obvious deal here. It is widely reported that the Marlins are looking for a catcher. If I'm the GM, I don't rest until I sell them on taking one of these guys for Dallas McPhearson. Even if I have to add a John Parrish or some such to the deal to make them happy, to me it is beyond obvious that this needs to happen. True McPhearson has an injury plagued and inconsistent history and true, his numbers are in the hitter-friendly PCL but even so, as a cheap possibility at DH (to guard against injury), 1B, or even 3B if an irresistible Rolen deal comes along, I don't see how we can pass up the opportunity to generate our own version of what Carlos Pena did in Tampa last year or Milton Bradley in Texas.

I would try to make a deal for one of these guys now (give the Marlins their choice) and, if Robinson Diaz recovers in time float the other one later. Other teams who might be interested in a catcher include Boston and Oakland.

2. AJ Burnett: Please, all you droolers out there with your knee-jerk AJ bashing, just control your bowels on this one. Even in this, admittedly his worst year, he's only had four truly awful starts in 18 and that over against 11 very good ones. Any contender in need is going to see value in that. Of course, no one is going to move until CC Sabathia lands, but the persistent rumor is that may happen even before his next start.

Before we address what teams and what they have, lets be clear about this - once CC is off the market, Burnett is either the best or second best remaining available starter (depending on whether or not Bedard is actually available). given that the M's HAVE to redeem the package they sent to Baltimore, they will be asking a ton and that should make AJ the more desirable target, even with his baggage and current inconsistency. So don't listen to what the obsessed tell you, once Sabathia is dealt Burnett moves to center-stage.

As for potential landing places, let's get this off the table - if Milwaukee is indeed offering LaPorta in a deal for CC it's almost inconceivable to me that they won't get him...but on the off chance I'm wrong about that, I think we can all agree that trying to leverage LaPorta for AJ would be our first priority. so my remarks flow from the presumption that Milwaukee got Sabathia and the other buyers are left to compete for the scraps.

It has been said that the Jays would prefer a shortstop and it is clear that over the coming years (3-4) it is their area of greatest need. It has also been rightly observed that there is very little in the way of a match among established players. Someone suggested that if the Brewers fail on CC, that the Jays express interest in JJ Hardy and there is some merit there, but on the whole it can be safely stated that if we acquired a SS, it would be a guy who's in the high minors. So let's look at the remaining contenders and see what is out there:

Boston - I can't see why they would be anxious to win AJ but Lowrie would certainly be a great return.

NYY - There's not really a good match here, certainly no SS to be coveted. I can't see them being a factor for AJ.

Tampa Bay - It would be kind of odd, I think, for the Rays to make a play for Burnett but certainly if they did you have to try to get Reid Brigiac from them. He's not having the best year in the minors but he is widely considered to be a prime prospect.

Chicago WS - I don't think the White Sox are in the market for much and leat of all a pitcher.
LA Angels - This is not a team that needs a SP.

Arizona - SS Reynaldo Navarro was listed #9 on Baseball America's pre-season rankings.

LA Dodgers - You can't speculate about young Dodger's shortstops without starting with young Taiwanese Chin-Lung Hu. The Dodgers are said to actually be looking for a veteran SS. I don't know what the team is thinking in not giving Hu the job, but if he's available he's the one to ask.

St. Louis - The Cards have a SS prospect in Pete Kozma but he's not real close and they don't have the luxury of trading him, even though they, like Baltimore, enjoy the advantage of being a team that AJ might not opt out on if they give him a little signing bonus. Earlier in the season, some speculated that major league outfielder Chris Duncan might be available. If so, one could do worse.

Chicago Cubs - Obviously, if you are dealing with the Cubs you have to covet 3B Josh Vitters. Lefty SPs Rich Hill and Sean Marshall are also desirable but there's no SS to be found.

Milwaukee - Beyond the names already mentioned, AA wunderkind Alicdes Escobar is the obvious choice. A SS with great defense and a ridiculous OBP is something that would solve a lot of problems.

Philadelphia - Jason Donald, a SS in AA for the Phillies is not a high profile prospect but the 23 year old is hitting quite well in Reading. I’ve no idea how good his fielding is.

Atlanta - Brent Lillibridge would have been the obvious answer a year ago, but he's struggling this season.

NY Mets - Having cleaned out their best prospects to get Santana, I don't look for them to be a major player.

One might also make note of Baltimore, since they are one of two teams Burnett might opt to stay with, but they are not likely to match the offers of some of the higher profile contenders.


3. David Eckstein - Rumor has it the Dodgers want a veteran to take up the slack of the injured Rafael Furcal (and why they are afraid to use Hu I do not know) and Baltimore is said to be mulling the idea. I hesitate to speculate on what Eck might bring because, frankly, anything with any upside is a deal you make. i don't hate the man but he is a player of limited value.

4. Brian Tallet - I've heard Wilner say on occasion that the market for RP is marginal, but the rumor mills insist that pitchers like Ron Mahay are drawing a lot of interest as a lot of contenders are short on LHRP. I know that the Brewers have only one quality lefty in the pen, ditto the Rangers, Cardinals, Phillies, A's, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Marlins, Tigers, Cubs, O's and D'Backs.

Far be it for me to speculate on the return from such a large group, but notice how often the possibility exists for us to pad a Burnett deal in order to maximize our return.

5. Lyle Overbay - this one is somewhat predicated on the idea of acquiring some other good young hitter which makes it wise to clear Overbay out of the way. I include it mostly because there are a lot of Overbay-bashers out there. The problem is, none of the contenders are hurting for what Overbay brings to the table. I don't see a deal.

6. Jason Frasor - On the one hand, RHRP has been a minor weakness in our staff, but on the other, one can easily project League, Accardo, Wolfe and Janssen into 2009 and beyond and Frasor is likely to be gone before next season anyway. Some teams, like the Yankees, stand in great enough need that even a local whipping boy like Frasor has some value.

7. Matt Stairs - some have speculated about the Dodgers but I don’t see a team who needs him bad enough to gamble on having him there next year. I don’t see a deal.

8. Jesse Litsch - trading AJ makes it more problematic to deal Litsch even under the rubric of “sell high” but give the lack of quality SP on the market and the number of contenders in need, it’d be foolish to not listen to offers if you could get some.

9. Brad Wilkerson/Shannon Stewart - don’t fool yourself, Stewart has no value because even a team that wants him knows we have no room. Wilkerson might have the most very marginal of value....as in you might get a little case for him but nothing of interest to a fan.

~WillRain

Saturday Morningness

Since the DJFs were couragous enough to reveal their faces, I thought I might as well follow suit and post a photo of myself to satisfy your curiosity. There you have it, the shocking truth. The years have not been kind; I'm only 29 years old.

What did last night's stinker do for AJ Burnett's trade value or, more importantly, his quest for type A free agent status? Not much good, sadly. Still, we owe Burnett some gratitude for at least providing one story line worth talking about around the water cooler. Bob Elliot says the prospect-poor Phillies, lacking the pieces to obtain a CC Sabbathia or Joe Blanton/Rich Harden, have been most active in scouting Burnett. They'd love him in Philly, so let's hope this works out.

More rumours? If you were keen on seeing Burnett and Eckstein go to the Dodgers for something juicy, cool your jets. It seems Nedco has more interest in CC Sabbathia (a Cali dude they have the money to re-sign) and Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson. Now, everything changes if the Brewers are ready to give up Matt LaPorta for Sabbathia... Ken Rosenthal says it's likely CC gets moved before his start on Tuesday, so the runner up may well turn its attention our way.

It's not like I'm totally disengaging from the Jays emotionally (as I have done with the Leafs pretty much every year at Christmas time since the lockout), but there really wasn't much to write about yesterday. Even Wilner is finding it hard to conceal his disappointment/boredom/contempt.

Blair truly nailed everything I've been trying to say about why JP must be strung up here and now in surveying the terrain to find that this is the year when a surprise team could sneak into the playoffs, so just read his piece, s'il vous plait.

Closer to a playoff spot than the Jays (10 back in the Wild Card)?

Baltimore Orioles: 6 back in the Wild Card. What?

Pittsburgh Pirates: 7.5 back in the Wild Card.

San Francisco Giants: 5 back in the NL West.

San Diego Padres: 9 back in the NL West with a .391 winning percentage. What in the fuck? (Anyone know when/whether the next season of Trailer Park Boys comes out?)

And the Kansas City Fucking Royals, 10.5 back in the AL Central, just miss the list.

There you have it.

The cavalacade of factoids continues...

Last night Sportsnet flashed a graphic between ads for autotrader.ca showing that the 2008 Jays are 41 homeruns behind their total at this point last year (101-60), and it got me to thinking. Matt Stairs and Vernon Wells currently share the team lead with 8 HR at 87 games into the season, making it entirely possible that no one on the team hits 20 this year.

When was the last time that happened? Ah, that would be strike-shortened 1981, when John Mayberry lead the team with 17. This indignity has only happened once in club history over a full season, that being the inaugural season of 1977, when aging DH Ron Fairly came up just short with 19. Long ball-digging chicks cannot be impressed.

All in all, this must be taking quite the toll on die hards like us and stoking disinterest amongst the ever important "casual fan." A cursory look at the numbers show that the Jays are still drawing in the middle of the pack (7th of 14 in the AL) just as they were last year, but the raw numbers are down. This does not bode well for payroll, or for JP's continued employment for that matter, when the Rogers suits do their post-mortem in October.

I caught snippets of a few games yesterday and got to thinking about a few overlooked bats worth considering for next year. What if the Yankees declined Jason Giambi's $22 million club option for next year? There's a $5 million buyout there and he has been very productive this year, but I think he might be a good fit in TO if he came available. Manny Ramirez? His behaviour is becoming increasingly erratic (the high five catch, shoving an aged travelling secretary to the ground) and it's no lock the Bosox exercise his $20 million club option for next year.

Now, I'm not saying that either are worth bringing on board at anything approaching their current salaries (or for more than 1 year if possible), but it's not like we've got the $200 million or so necessary to reel in Mark Teixeira. You gotta get your power somewhere, folks.

Enjoy this wonderous Saturday and know that I love you all very much.

-- Johnny Was

The Invisible Man, Part Two

Earlier in the year I did an "Invisible Man" section on Lyle Overbay, showing why he was struggling offensively. I'm going to try and do something similar here with Alex Rios.

Rios was signed to a contract extension at the beginning of the season, which made us all very happy that our 850+ OPS defensive stud RF who could play CF in a pinch was going to be here the next 6 or so years. I was going to start off making some bullshit argument about how Rios let the contract get to his head, but that's not the case. In April Rios hit 306/386/449, good enough for an 835 OPS. Rios showed more patience than he normally does which led to the high OBP, which is why nobody really noticed or cared that he only slugged 449 that month.

In May he did his best John McDonald impression - and not with the glove - as he 'hit' 231/270/315 (585 OPS). It was around this time that we started to notice that Rios was struggling significantly, and that for the second straight month he wasn't showing much in the way of power. In June it got a little better, as he hit 320/361/460 (821 OPS). He showed the greatest slugging by month to this point, but don't let the slugging fool you - that was a batting average determined slugging. Had his BA been the same as in April, his slugging would have been an identical 449 in April and June.

Some would attribute his June resurgence to Cito, but again, he wasn't any better in June than he was in April. Until he regains his 06/07 swing, this is essentially his ceiling.

Now, if Rios could hit 280 and get on base with at least a 350-360 OBP, while slugging 450, I don't think anybody would really mind. As an 800 OPS RF with elite defense, Rios would still have a ton of value. But with a career 7.1 BB%, I don't think Rios is going to approach that OBP (of 350-360) without hitting 300. So he's going to need to show a significant amount of power if he wants to be a valuable major leaguer.

Right now there's nothing wrong with Rios' line drive rate - it's 21.2%, above his career mark of 20.5, and identical to his breakout year with the Jays. The number that jumps out of me, and not in a good way, is his GB %. If you're going to be a GB hitter, you need Ichiro, Reyes, or Crawford type speed. Rios is quick, but he's outclassed by those guys in terms of pure speed. So when I see Rios has a 47% GB rate (up nearly 12% from the past few years), a 31.8% FB rate (down nearly 13%!!!) and a HR/FB rate at 4.8% (down 5-7% from the past few years) - I think the problem becomes very obvious.

This really isn't anything shocking. We knew Rios couldn't hit a HR by watching the game with our own eyes. We know he's hit into a ton of double plays (12, which puts him 2 away from a season high). The stats just confirm that all these things are true.

What's surprising, is that he's regressed into the player (I refuse to call him a hitter from this point) that showed up in 2005 - a player with no plate discipline, no power, and untapped potential.

To me, this isn't about Rios not having a game plan, or just being a lazy hitter. That's making an excuse, but it's not dealing with the problem. Someone has to teach or show Rios how to hit the ball into the air again. Because otherwise, we just spent 65 million dollars on a 700 OPS RF. But at least he doesn't clog the bases.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

Regardless on where you stand on the 2008 Jays, concede this: there is nothing cooler than a commando raid deep into enemy territory. Not to ruin the story for you, but the Colombian army just pulled off what was probably the most brazen, ambitious special forces operation since Israeli forces freed 100 hostages held by pro-Palestinian terrorists at Entebbe airport in Uganda back in 1976. Truly breathtaking stuff.

Oh, baseball?

That giant sucking sound you hear is the aftermath of another Jays loss, this time 4-2. That's a series victory for the Mariners, who are allegedly the worst team in baseball. I stuck with this one until the 8th but chose to turn away for the inevitable.

Lemons out of lemonade: Adam Lind socks another dinger with his folks in attendance.

Is there anyone out there who thinks that everything that isn't bolted to the floor shouldn't be traded at some point this month?

Moveable parts:

AJ Burnett: (Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, Tigers, Braves, and Cubs?)

You all know why, it's inevitable that he's opting out at the end of the year. Does it make more sense to move him now for a more known commodity or HOPE that he stays healthy the rest of the way and winds up the year as a class A free agent? No, no it doesn't. Now, that latter scenario, both elements of it, are no sure thing. Even if he does finish up strong enough to get A status, the 2009 draft class is expected to be a weak one, so the pair of late first round/supplemental round picks you'd get by letting him walk aren't as appealing as one might otherwise think.

He could go anywhere really. There are about a half dozen clubs that should have interest once the first domino (CC Sabathia?) falls. Bob Elliot says Burnett's being actively shopped and the club is looking for a shortstop in return. Stay tuned.

Rod Barajas or Gregg Zaun: (probably depends on injuries, but interest from the Red Sox, Brewers, Yankees, Marlins)

The catcher "platoon" (not really a platoon because there's no particular lefty-righty logic to it) is working out exceptionally well this year, but Zaunner is clearly unhappy with his reduced playing time under the Cito regime. Now, this happened before when Bengie Molina was in the fold and Zaun still re-signed for 2007, but Zaunner's biological clock is ticking and he might well come to the conclusion that he's better off plying his trade elsewhere (read: a team with a real chance of going to the playoffs) before retirement. With studly prospect JP Arencibia ripping shit at AA and Brian Jerolman and Robby Diaz providing added minor league depth, we're proabably not going to need both Barajas AND Zaunner to mentor one of these youngsters for next year.

With Jason Varitek in a late career nose dive and Kevin Cash being Kevin Cash, I think Theo Epstein would definitely be interested in Zaun at the deadline. Cla Merideth and Josh Bard for Doug Mirabelli, anyone? And no, I don't have any issue with trading a True Blue Jay like Zaunner to a hated rival like the Bosox.

Matt Stairs: (Dodgers)

MLBTR reports that the Dodgers have interest in Uncle Matt, though much of the fan base would be absolutely gutted to see him go. Ken Rosenthal says the Jays and Dodgers have been talking... At this point in his career Stairs is better suited for a NL pinch-hitting/emergency 1B/OF style of role than DH-ing and he is a diminishing asset under contract for next year as well. Could be packaged with AJ Burnett in a larger deal.

Don't expect them to give up young Taiwainese shortstop Chin-lung Hu, a favourite of the Batter's Box set, because extension talks with Raphael Furcal have not been going well and it's looking unlikely he'll be back in Dodger Blue '09.

Brian Tallet/Jason Frasor: (pretty much every contender)

Who doesn't want a better bullpen? Tallett is arb elligible at the end of this year and will require a raise and Frasor is everyone's favourite whipping boy. There's no great impetus to move either, but if someone came calling for a relief arm and was willing to overpay, well, yeah...

That pretty much sums it up. Generally speaking I'm all for the philosophy that no one on your roster should be untouchable, but there is an exception for Roy Halladay. Never, ever trade Doc. Your rooster, well, it's up to you whether that's untouchable or not.

Some good news? The Fisher Cats are sending a pretty sizeable contingent to the Eastern League all-star game and optimists are going to see that as evidence that there's some near ML-ready talent in the pipeline. Honoured are Brett Cecil, Zach Dials, Brian Jeroloman, Scott Campbell, and Travis Snider. Well done, lads.

Brandon League really should be stretched out and the formidable Jon Hale at The Mockingbird was similarly impressed with what he saw from the Flyin' Hawaiian last night. After nearly a fortnight riding the pines, League was chucking BBs in the high-90s at what looked half-effort. He did throw a bunch of 3-inning relief outings down in Syracuse and probably does have the stamina to go 5-6. I'd like to have him in the mix for the 5th starter spot next spring (barring some major FA signing, but seriously don't kid yourselves) with Dave Purcey, Brett Cecil and perhaps Casey Janssen. Player development doesn't need to follow a linear path and League just might prove himself to be a pleasant surprise in the rotation. You gotta believe.

Sean McAdam of ESPN.com asks whether Cito can save JP's job. The answer is probably not, but this is still a pretty good read.

So, is A-Rod plowing Madonna? Back 10 years ago you might've wanted a go at that, but now? She's almost 50, dude. And is Mrs. A-Rod plowing Lenny Kravitz? That's a little bit less gross, but still. There seems to be a whole lot of cuckolding going on in that relationship...

The tight-fisted A's just plunked down just over $4 million for 16-year-old pitching wunderkind Michael Inoa of the Dominican Republic. You know they've done their homework, so it should be interesting to see how he develops.

I humbly admit to being extremely entertained by the once-lowly Rays, who've been taking the bully Bosox apart over the past few days. Earlier in the year I said that .500 would be a more reasonable goal than contention for this young lot (and used some epithets against those who were predicting big things from them this year), but I'm pretty close to being sold on them. Now, that doesn't mean I'm saying they're a playoff lock, but I expect to see them Hangin' Tough in September at least.

Are the Angels finally waking up to the fact that Juan Rivera was the power bat they needed all along? The guy they had stashed on the bench even though he was as good of a hitter as Alex Rios in 2006? Slow clap...

-- Johnny Was

Early Afternoon Randomness

Was my post this morning somewhat depressing, a reflection of the general state of mind in Blue Jays fandom? Let's turn those those frowns upside down then, shall we?

I've decamped my office space to the living room for the summer so I can catch bits and pieces of whomever happens to be playing in the afternoon on MLB Extra Innings. Tuned in to a bit of the Marlins-Nationals from Joe Robbie where I made the startling discovery that the Marlins have cheerleaders. And they're scantily clad and smoking hot! Why don't we do this? There is no good excuse, none whatsoever.

You may well have already known about the Marlins Mermaids, but our numbers have been down of late and a little T&A can't but help bring back some old readers or please those of you who've remained loyal.

Editor's note: The Southpaw is not liable for any holes you may have ripped in your trousers after looking at the above photo.

As you were.

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

I really don't know what to do with myself on Canada Day anymore. In past years it was automatic: dump some vodka in a Big Gulp pail and go for a walk along the river in Sarnia's Centennial Park. Even if the group started out small we'd always run into a few people we hadn't seen in years, talk shit about the best theoretical way to smuggle weed into the US (I always thought using a catapult at one of the narrower stretchs of the St. Clair River in the dead of night was a winning idea), watch the fireworks, then head over to Ups and Downs for beers in the dankness that shrouds Front Street after dark.

I don't particularly miss or even like Sarnia and those days of doing what Jay K. so aptly calls "shameful things" are clearly in the rearview mirror for this guy. Before I start singing CPK by Unwritten Law (the unofficial anthem of summertime about a decade ago), let me just say that this was all just a rambling, roundabout way of me saying that I did indeed stay home and watch the game last night.

Now, I've already told you that I'm taking a que sera, sera approach on the rest of this year and won't really be taking it hard when things don't turn out right. Losses suck, but what can you do? Beltre did his best Vlad impression by taking Carlson deep off an outside eye-high fastball and Downs is usually more than solid (he hadn't given up a run since April before Sexson homered off him last night), so I won't pick apart Cito's decision(s) to leave lefties in to face righty sluggers. (If you still want to, it's kind of a no brainer).

The Oracle too is succumbing to the melancholy it seems. Is anyone still angry enough to tear JP a new one during the phone-in tonight at 8:30?

Making lemons into lemonade: Adam Lind, 3 for 4 with 3 RBI. The big hit, the 4th inning double, came off lefty starter Cornelius Roland-Smith, Esquire. Platoon guy? Fuck that shit.

Word is that Shaun Marcum won't be back until July 21, but there's really no reason to rush him back taking the big picture into account. I think we've all learned that he is a very special talent and needs to be treated as such.

There are people out there who are vehemently opposed to AJ Burnett for a plethora of reasons: he's immature, he's always hurt, he hasn't lived up to his contract, etc. None of those things--debatable as they are--have concerned me too much and I found his comments in the Globe on West Coast Jays fans absolutely hilarious:

SEATTLE — The Blue Jays fans at Safeco Field here might just be louder than Blue Jays fans at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Surely that's a premise Blue Jays starter A.J. Burnett could agree with, right?

“It depends on what day it is and what they're giving away,” said Burnett, who mocked the silence at home gatherings last month. “No, I'm just kidding. It just sounds that way because they're outnumbering the [local] people here. The guys in Toronto get to see us every day, so maybe the fact that these fans only get to come down once a year and see us, they're in full effect.”

Shine on you crazy diamond. Some of us will miss you next month.

Here's Uncle Dick's halfway point report card for the Jays. What the...? This thing is totally uncontroversial?

-- Johnny Was