Figures. When I finally break down and get "in depth" they turn around and prove me wrong.
As you probably know by now the Jays optioned Reed, Purcey and Jesse Carlson to the AAA team today. Anthopoulos explains that Carlson simply needs more innings to be ready. While he obviously didn't give anything else away, my quick read on this is that it means one of Eveland or Tallet will be in the bullpen to open the season and one of the kids will be in the rotation. Assuming of course that they make a priority of having two lefties.
Update: Bastian tweets that Zep has a fractured finger. Thus he's out for at least six weeks. That leaves Eveland, Tallet, and Cecil for two spots. And if both the vets are in the rotation, then there's a chance the jays either go with only one LH reliever until Carlson is ready (good news for Accardo) or have to recal Purcey yo fill that role. personally, as much as I think the logic of having stopgap vets in the rotation is sound, I can't help but have an emotional interest in Cecil making the rotation now, with Tallet in the pen.
Tuesday, 30 March 2010
Monday, 29 March 2010
Brass Tacks
Well it's one week out now, and what do we know?
Not as much as you'd have expected but still, more than maybe you'd think. Let's review the safe assumptions about the major league roster, even though these conclusions are easily found elsewhere:
Catchers: John Buck and Jose Molina. given that Raul Chavez isn't playing with the major league team at all, it's a given he doesn't make the cut.
Infielders: Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion (if not on the DL) John McDonald, Randy Ruiz and Mike McCoy.
Outfielders: Vernon Wells, Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Adam Lind (really a DH but you get the idea).
If EE starts on the DL, add Jeremy Reed.
That's pretty much set, with the only minor question being the reversal of McCoy and Reed. It's on the pitching side that things get more uncertain. Let's look at the rotation first. Marcum at #1 and Romero at #2 is written in ink at this point. What comes after is less certain. For those three spots are at least five candidates:
Brandon Morrow - if he does well and makes it through five innings in Houston, he's in at #3. if he has a setback it's off to the DL;
Dana Eveland - has steadily pushed his way into consideration with an excellent spring;
Brian Tallet - Clarance's boy, hasn't had an impressive spring but veteran guys who have made the team often enjoy a lot of leeway on that, also a proven commodity in the bullpen;
Marc Rzep - Had an up and down spring, came into camp is a favorite of the manager but is also young enough to not be insulted by a AAA assignment to start the year;
Brett Cecil - came into camp with a presumptive future in Vegas to open the season but has impressed the right people;
Dustin McGowan - has been shut down for two week insuring he starts on the DL and won't see Toronto before May at the very earliest.
There are a number of ways one could look at this competition. First, lets concede the #3 spot to Morrow and note that the best of the guys we'd otherwise eliminate gets to step in if he has to hit the DL. For the other two spots you have several potential combinations.
Scenario A: Conclude that in terms of both the learning curve and service time, the future is best served by the kids being in Vegas and put Eveland and Tallet in the rotation.
Scenario B: Conclude that the kids learn best in the majors and send the older guys off to the bullpen.
Scenario C: go with the best spring performances, thus Eveland and Cecil. Zep goes to AAA and Tallet to the 'pen.
Scenario D: Entertain trade offers for one of the older guys from a team thin on pitching. Let the dominoes fall as they will thereafter.
We really don't have many clues here, but based on AA's seeming "build for the future" philosophy, and my conclusion that Tallet is probably a placeholder anyway, and the instinct that Eveland would build value by posting regular season success as a starter - I'll take a flier on Scenario A and base the rest of this projection on that event.
What we gain here is that we don't lose Eveland (since he's out of options) to waivers, and we reduce the bottleneck on the bullpen jobs which likewise helps maintain some depth - at least until someone pushes Tallet out of the rotation (which is bound to happen).
In the bullpen, we've been told from day one that Frasor, Gregg, and Downs are the only locks but as long as his knee is fine (which it seems to be) Carlson is pretty much a given as well. Shawn Camp did such good work for Clarence last year that he'd have had to pitch himself out of the pen and he hasn't. Those five are pretty easy calls. That leaves two jobs and the following competitors (assuming the aforementioned rotation):
Merkin Valdez - Reading the stat page gives us no real info about how well he's done this spring, a sample size of six innings has little relevance anyway. What we do know is that he's out of options, a fact to which which the Jays are paying attention. At the very least, he holds a tie-breaker;
Casey Janssen - Like all the relievers in camp, he's thrown very few innings (at least in games that "count" on the stat page), but the reviews have been universally favorable. His problem? He has an option left;
Josh Roenicke - generally listed as a candidate, in reality having the least major league experience and the most options, he'd have had to have been a monster to be a real candidate;
David Purcey - seems to be destined for a bullpen role, but still raw in that capacity. Purcey might conceivably evolve into an intimidating late-inning lefty, maybe even a closer (for someone) but for now, his newness to the role and his remaining option puts him in the role of long-shot. this would change in a hurry if Downs were traded since he'd then benefit from his left-handedness;
Jeremy Accardo - has an option, and had a so-so spring, which also puts him in a dis-favorable position for making the team. if I may digress a bit here, for all the talk of teams looking at Frasor and Downs (quality acquisitions to be sure) I have to wonder if the guy most likely to be traded is Accardo. If you are the Twins, for instance, and looking to increase your resources in terms of the closers role, but were unwilling to pony up a real prospect for Frasor or Downs, who wouldn't you take a long look at a guy like Accardo?
Granted, he had a limited opportunity last year and some control problems in his limited major league appearances but he was also pretty thoroughly jerked around. Barring some health or "stuff" issue (of which none are reported) this is still the guy who was astonishingly good as a full time closer in 2007. That isn't worth anything to the Twins? or the Cubs? Maybe I'm letting sentiment cloud my vision here but I, for one, would hate to see Accardo become the forgotten man again.
Realistically, I think the Jays will gamble that Valdez gives them something and hang on to him out of camp, given the likelihood of losing him. Out of the other four, the buzz is all about Janssen.
So - to this point I've pretty much repeated that which you could have already gotten (and probably have) from Jordan Bastian and a number of others, but here's the next step - how do these decisions impact the minor league rosters?
Here's my guess:
Las Vegas-
Catchers: JP Arencibia, Raul Chavez
First: Brett Wallace, Brian Dopirack(DH)
Second: Jarrett Hoffpauir, Calix Crabbe (no idea who starts)
Short: Jesus Merchan
Third: Brad Emaus (I've seen suggestions he'd go back to third this year - which I think is a VERY good idea...I've also seen suggestions he'd start at New Hampshire but I'm hoping not. If he does, I make Phillips the starting 3B)
Outfield: Chris Lubanski, Jeremy Reed, Aaron Matthews, Jorge Padilla
Utility: Kyle Phillips (C, 3B, DH, 1B)
SP: Cecil, Zep, Brad Mills, Zach Stewart, Robert Ray
RP: Roenicke, Accardo (if not dealt), Purcey, Randy Boone, Sean Henn, Zach Jackson and one more from three or four competitors, the rest of whom will probably be cut)
New Hampshire (just starters for the hitters from here on) -
C: Brian Jeroloman
1B: David Cooper
2B: Scott Campbell
SS: Adenis Hechevarria (not at first, it's so late he'll need extended ST first but when he's ready to play)
3B: Bryan Kervin?
OF: Eric Thames, Darin Mastorianni, Moises Sierra, Adam Loewen (one of these doing being a DH most days)
SP: Kyle Drabek, Luis Perez, Andrew Liebel, Ray Gonzalez, Kenny Rodriguez
RP: Danny Farquhar, Tim Collins, Trystan Magnuson, Celson Polanco, couple of other unimportant filler types
Dunedin -
C - Travis d'Arnoud
1B: Jon Talley (playing a hunch here, given the catching depth)
2B: John Tolisano
SS: Justin Jackson
3B: Kevin Aherns
OF: Wellinton Ramirez, Brian Van Kirk, Brad McElroy
SP: Chad Jenkins, Henderson Alverez, Bobby Bell, Chuck Huggins, Joel Cerano?
RP: anyone's guess, really, there's too little info.
I'm sure folks are asking themselves "Where's Pastornicky?" - my guess is he goes back to Lansing until the SS bottleneck clears up. He didn't exactly own the Midwest league, he's young, and he needs to be playing his natural position every day. Most of the other better prospects are not really in a position to be at Dunedin yet so beyond the SS issue, there's not too much conflict on that. Predicting the rosters below Hi-A is a fools errand, there's just too much I don't know.
I know this - I'm as excited about these minor league teams as I am about the Jays. the word for the year is "youth" and each of those three rosters features at least eight guys I'll be watching from afar this year.
Let's get started, eh?
Not as much as you'd have expected but still, more than maybe you'd think. Let's review the safe assumptions about the major league roster, even though these conclusions are easily found elsewhere:
Catchers: John Buck and Jose Molina. given that Raul Chavez isn't playing with the major league team at all, it's a given he doesn't make the cut.
Infielders: Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion (if not on the DL) John McDonald, Randy Ruiz and Mike McCoy.
Outfielders: Vernon Wells, Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Adam Lind (really a DH but you get the idea).
If EE starts on the DL, add Jeremy Reed.
That's pretty much set, with the only minor question being the reversal of McCoy and Reed. It's on the pitching side that things get more uncertain. Let's look at the rotation first. Marcum at #1 and Romero at #2 is written in ink at this point. What comes after is less certain. For those three spots are at least five candidates:
Brandon Morrow - if he does well and makes it through five innings in Houston, he's in at #3. if he has a setback it's off to the DL;
Dana Eveland - has steadily pushed his way into consideration with an excellent spring;
Brian Tallet - Clarance's boy, hasn't had an impressive spring but veteran guys who have made the team often enjoy a lot of leeway on that, also a proven commodity in the bullpen;
Marc Rzep - Had an up and down spring, came into camp is a favorite of the manager but is also young enough to not be insulted by a AAA assignment to start the year;
Brett Cecil - came into camp with a presumptive future in Vegas to open the season but has impressed the right people;
Dustin McGowan - has been shut down for two week insuring he starts on the DL and won't see Toronto before May at the very earliest.
There are a number of ways one could look at this competition. First, lets concede the #3 spot to Morrow and note that the best of the guys we'd otherwise eliminate gets to step in if he has to hit the DL. For the other two spots you have several potential combinations.
Scenario A: Conclude that in terms of both the learning curve and service time, the future is best served by the kids being in Vegas and put Eveland and Tallet in the rotation.
Scenario B: Conclude that the kids learn best in the majors and send the older guys off to the bullpen.
Scenario C: go with the best spring performances, thus Eveland and Cecil. Zep goes to AAA and Tallet to the 'pen.
Scenario D: Entertain trade offers for one of the older guys from a team thin on pitching. Let the dominoes fall as they will thereafter.
We really don't have many clues here, but based on AA's seeming "build for the future" philosophy, and my conclusion that Tallet is probably a placeholder anyway, and the instinct that Eveland would build value by posting regular season success as a starter - I'll take a flier on Scenario A and base the rest of this projection on that event.
What we gain here is that we don't lose Eveland (since he's out of options) to waivers, and we reduce the bottleneck on the bullpen jobs which likewise helps maintain some depth - at least until someone pushes Tallet out of the rotation (which is bound to happen).
In the bullpen, we've been told from day one that Frasor, Gregg, and Downs are the only locks but as long as his knee is fine (which it seems to be) Carlson is pretty much a given as well. Shawn Camp did such good work for Clarence last year that he'd have had to pitch himself out of the pen and he hasn't. Those five are pretty easy calls. That leaves two jobs and the following competitors (assuming the aforementioned rotation):
Merkin Valdez - Reading the stat page gives us no real info about how well he's done this spring, a sample size of six innings has little relevance anyway. What we do know is that he's out of options, a fact to which which the Jays are paying attention. At the very least, he holds a tie-breaker;
Casey Janssen - Like all the relievers in camp, he's thrown very few innings (at least in games that "count" on the stat page), but the reviews have been universally favorable. His problem? He has an option left;
Josh Roenicke - generally listed as a candidate, in reality having the least major league experience and the most options, he'd have had to have been a monster to be a real candidate;
David Purcey - seems to be destined for a bullpen role, but still raw in that capacity. Purcey might conceivably evolve into an intimidating late-inning lefty, maybe even a closer (for someone) but for now, his newness to the role and his remaining option puts him in the role of long-shot. this would change in a hurry if Downs were traded since he'd then benefit from his left-handedness;
Jeremy Accardo - has an option, and had a so-so spring, which also puts him in a dis-favorable position for making the team. if I may digress a bit here, for all the talk of teams looking at Frasor and Downs (quality acquisitions to be sure) I have to wonder if the guy most likely to be traded is Accardo. If you are the Twins, for instance, and looking to increase your resources in terms of the closers role, but were unwilling to pony up a real prospect for Frasor or Downs, who wouldn't you take a long look at a guy like Accardo?
Granted, he had a limited opportunity last year and some control problems in his limited major league appearances but he was also pretty thoroughly jerked around. Barring some health or "stuff" issue (of which none are reported) this is still the guy who was astonishingly good as a full time closer in 2007. That isn't worth anything to the Twins? or the Cubs? Maybe I'm letting sentiment cloud my vision here but I, for one, would hate to see Accardo become the forgotten man again.
Realistically, I think the Jays will gamble that Valdez gives them something and hang on to him out of camp, given the likelihood of losing him. Out of the other four, the buzz is all about Janssen.
So - to this point I've pretty much repeated that which you could have already gotten (and probably have) from Jordan Bastian and a number of others, but here's the next step - how do these decisions impact the minor league rosters?
Here's my guess:
Las Vegas-
Catchers: JP Arencibia, Raul Chavez
First: Brett Wallace, Brian Dopirack(DH)
Second: Jarrett Hoffpauir, Calix Crabbe (no idea who starts)
Short: Jesus Merchan
Third: Brad Emaus (I've seen suggestions he'd go back to third this year - which I think is a VERY good idea...I've also seen suggestions he'd start at New Hampshire but I'm hoping not. If he does, I make Phillips the starting 3B)
Outfield: Chris Lubanski, Jeremy Reed, Aaron Matthews, Jorge Padilla
Utility: Kyle Phillips (C, 3B, DH, 1B)
SP: Cecil, Zep, Brad Mills, Zach Stewart, Robert Ray
RP: Roenicke, Accardo (if not dealt), Purcey, Randy Boone, Sean Henn, Zach Jackson and one more from three or four competitors, the rest of whom will probably be cut)
New Hampshire (just starters for the hitters from here on) -
C: Brian Jeroloman
1B: David Cooper
2B: Scott Campbell
SS: Adenis Hechevarria (not at first, it's so late he'll need extended ST first but when he's ready to play)
3B: Bryan Kervin?
OF: Eric Thames, Darin Mastorianni, Moises Sierra, Adam Loewen (one of these doing being a DH most days)
SP: Kyle Drabek, Luis Perez, Andrew Liebel, Ray Gonzalez, Kenny Rodriguez
RP: Danny Farquhar, Tim Collins, Trystan Magnuson, Celson Polanco, couple of other unimportant filler types
Dunedin -
C - Travis d'Arnoud
1B: Jon Talley (playing a hunch here, given the catching depth)
2B: John Tolisano
SS: Justin Jackson
3B: Kevin Aherns
OF: Wellinton Ramirez, Brian Van Kirk, Brad McElroy
SP: Chad Jenkins, Henderson Alverez, Bobby Bell, Chuck Huggins, Joel Cerano?
RP: anyone's guess, really, there's too little info.
I'm sure folks are asking themselves "Where's Pastornicky?" - my guess is he goes back to Lansing until the SS bottleneck clears up. He didn't exactly own the Midwest league, he's young, and he needs to be playing his natural position every day. Most of the other better prospects are not really in a position to be at Dunedin yet so beyond the SS issue, there's not too much conflict on that. Predicting the rosters below Hi-A is a fools errand, there's just too much I don't know.
I know this - I'm as excited about these minor league teams as I am about the Jays. the word for the year is "youth" and each of those three rosters features at least eight guys I'll be watching from afar this year.
Let's get started, eh?
Tuesday, 23 March 2010
Days of Our Clarance
I've exercised considerable restraint in not commenting on the machinations of our manager from day to day by reminding myself "it's just spring training" but as we draw ever nearer to Opening Day (less than two weeks out!) the accumulation of observations is such that I feel I'm neglecting my duties to not make at least passing reference to them. So, here are a few highlights:
1. Brian Tallet as starter. Maybe no one in the Jays fanbase is any more appreciative of the value of Brian Tallet as a reliever. but using him in the rotation when you don't have to is bad on several counts.
First, he's simply not a very good pitcher as a starter, at least not here. If he were in San Diego maybe, or Washington, he might carve out himself a nice little Doug Davis type career.
Second, he's not part of the future and thus, for potential trade situations, his value ought be maximized by being used in his best role.
Third, this is a season for seeing what we have among the kids. That means not falling in love with someone the way Clarance is apparently fawning over Tallet for no real reason. Sure, one can argue that none of Cecil or Mills or whoever is ready for that spot - and that McGowan clearly isn't up to full speed. If The Manager had said "Tallet will hold down that spot until one of the kids pushes for it or McGowan is right" then fine. But even then, Dana Eveland is just as able, is more expendable when that day comes, and Tallet can continue to build value in a role he does well.
2. He's Apparently developing the same fascination with John Buck. Don't get me wrong, I don't presume to have a negative opinion of Buck as a defender but come on - how senile do you have to be to think he's a good hitter. Yet have you noticed how high Buck's been showing up in the ST lineups? Yesterday vs the Tigers he hit sixth - ahead of Randy Ruiz (whom Clarance lavishes praise on) and Travis Snider. Fluke? Nope. Only once in the last two weeks has Buck appeared in a game hitting behind Ruiz and never behind Snider. I know Snider apparently pissed in Clarance's morning Metamucil or something but do we really have to witness the spectacle of such a weak hitter supplanting him? Heck, there have been games this spring when Alex-freakin-Gonzalez hit ahead of Snider but that's kind of a different point.
3. Speaking of Snider. What is it with The Manager anyway? One of my fellow bloggers (can't remember for sure and too lazy to look) rightly pointed out recently just how VERY badly Clarance screwed over Shawn Green in favor of crotchety veterans in decline back in '97 and he seems determined to do a re-make this year with Snider. Does it even need pointing out that there is no long term value in protecting snider from lefties, hitting him ninth, or playing him in left this year?
Sure, maybe it's true that Lind can't play the outfield at all and Snider isn't a good RF - but what do we have to lose that we would otherwise have won in 2010 to FIND OUT? So what if we have the worst OF defense in the majors - at least we will KNOW with complete certainty next winter that we can't plan on doing that again when the team is expected to be good. There's no downside to finding that out.
Likewise, there is nothing at all to be gained by hitting Snider behind guys who are well known to be offensive black holes. It does nothing for his confidence, his ability to adjust, his ability to adapt to higher pressure situation, or his ability to hit situationally with people on base (which if you want that you don't want Buck and Gonzo in front of him).
4. The fascination with Gathright. Thankfully, on this point, he seems to have a growing affection for Mike McCoy (who is increasingly becoming a player I have an irrational attraction to myself) and Jeremy Reed (who sucks pretty much as much as Gathright but Clarance doesn't seem to have a crush on him so in that he's to be preferred) is outhitting JG by a wide margin. Still, it shouldn't take this much to dissuade someone from an interest in Gathright.
It IS true that if I had my way and Snider was in RF, we'd have some difficulty with the lead-off spot. but if I had my way, McCoy would be the starting shortstop until he proved himself incapable offensively or defensively and HE would be the lead-off hitter. Here's another situation in which in a developmental season, there's no reason not to think outside the box. Unless it is clearly obvious to Jays managment that McCoy is so defficent defensively as to do damage to our ground ball pitchers, then how can it possibly be a ba thing to run him out there and see if he can handle it?
5. The unanswered question at closer. I'm sorry, anyone who looks at Frasor's work and Gregg's work and has trouble deciding which should close (when both are healthy) automatically disqualifies themselves from making any baseball decisions. I can't see how anything more needs saying on that point.
How many of these issues are an issue when the regular season rolls around, I can't say - but I could no longer refrain.
1. Brian Tallet as starter. Maybe no one in the Jays fanbase is any more appreciative of the value of Brian Tallet as a reliever. but using him in the rotation when you don't have to is bad on several counts.
First, he's simply not a very good pitcher as a starter, at least not here. If he were in San Diego maybe, or Washington, he might carve out himself a nice little Doug Davis type career.
Second, he's not part of the future and thus, for potential trade situations, his value ought be maximized by being used in his best role.
Third, this is a season for seeing what we have among the kids. That means not falling in love with someone the way Clarance is apparently fawning over Tallet for no real reason. Sure, one can argue that none of Cecil or Mills or whoever is ready for that spot - and that McGowan clearly isn't up to full speed. If The Manager had said "Tallet will hold down that spot until one of the kids pushes for it or McGowan is right" then fine. But even then, Dana Eveland is just as able, is more expendable when that day comes, and Tallet can continue to build value in a role he does well.
2. He's Apparently developing the same fascination with John Buck. Don't get me wrong, I don't presume to have a negative opinion of Buck as a defender but come on - how senile do you have to be to think he's a good hitter. Yet have you noticed how high Buck's been showing up in the ST lineups? Yesterday vs the Tigers he hit sixth - ahead of Randy Ruiz (whom Clarance lavishes praise on) and Travis Snider. Fluke? Nope. Only once in the last two weeks has Buck appeared in a game hitting behind Ruiz and never behind Snider. I know Snider apparently pissed in Clarance's morning Metamucil or something but do we really have to witness the spectacle of such a weak hitter supplanting him? Heck, there have been games this spring when Alex-freakin-Gonzalez hit ahead of Snider but that's kind of a different point.
3. Speaking of Snider. What is it with The Manager anyway? One of my fellow bloggers (can't remember for sure and too lazy to look) rightly pointed out recently just how VERY badly Clarance screwed over Shawn Green in favor of crotchety veterans in decline back in '97 and he seems determined to do a re-make this year with Snider. Does it even need pointing out that there is no long term value in protecting snider from lefties, hitting him ninth, or playing him in left this year?
Sure, maybe it's true that Lind can't play the outfield at all and Snider isn't a good RF - but what do we have to lose that we would otherwise have won in 2010 to FIND OUT? So what if we have the worst OF defense in the majors - at least we will KNOW with complete certainty next winter that we can't plan on doing that again when the team is expected to be good. There's no downside to finding that out.
Likewise, there is nothing at all to be gained by hitting Snider behind guys who are well known to be offensive black holes. It does nothing for his confidence, his ability to adjust, his ability to adapt to higher pressure situation, or his ability to hit situationally with people on base (which if you want that you don't want Buck and Gonzo in front of him).
4. The fascination with Gathright. Thankfully, on this point, he seems to have a growing affection for Mike McCoy (who is increasingly becoming a player I have an irrational attraction to myself) and Jeremy Reed (who sucks pretty much as much as Gathright but Clarance doesn't seem to have a crush on him so in that he's to be preferred) is outhitting JG by a wide margin. Still, it shouldn't take this much to dissuade someone from an interest in Gathright.
It IS true that if I had my way and Snider was in RF, we'd have some difficulty with the lead-off spot. but if I had my way, McCoy would be the starting shortstop until he proved himself incapable offensively or defensively and HE would be the lead-off hitter. Here's another situation in which in a developmental season, there's no reason not to think outside the box. Unless it is clearly obvious to Jays managment that McCoy is so defficent defensively as to do damage to our ground ball pitchers, then how can it possibly be a ba thing to run him out there and see if he can handle it?
5. The unanswered question at closer. I'm sorry, anyone who looks at Frasor's work and Gregg's work and has trouble deciding which should close (when both are healthy) automatically disqualifies themselves from making any baseball decisions. I can't see how anything more needs saying on that point.
How many of these issues are an issue when the regular season rolls around, I can't say - but I could no longer refrain.
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Something to consider?
According to MLBTR the Nats have unconditionally released Elijah Dukes. He's experienced (if not great) in RF a and he's only 25. At first blush, it seems a slam dunk that Dukes would be a superior option to Gathright and Reed.
What am I missing here?
In 2008, ostensibly his breakout season, he was a 2.8 WAR player, making positive contributions on both offense and defense. Further, he hit well vs both RH and LH pitching, and had a high enough OBP that he could fit not unreasonably as a lead-off hitter.
If the Jays are committed to the idea that Snider will end up in LF, the chance to grab a guy who might turn into the RF solution until Sierra or some other prospect comes along would seem a no-brainer.
That said, the report suggested that the Nats tried to trade him to pretty much anyone and came up short. You can't help but wonder why a team like the Jays wouldn't have spared a marginal reliever or some such just to get a first shot at seeing what he's got. If all it costs us is Steve Stifole or something, where's the harm?
Again, what am I missing here?
What am I missing here?
In 2008, ostensibly his breakout season, he was a 2.8 WAR player, making positive contributions on both offense and defense. Further, he hit well vs both RH and LH pitching, and had a high enough OBP that he could fit not unreasonably as a lead-off hitter.
If the Jays are committed to the idea that Snider will end up in LF, the chance to grab a guy who might turn into the RF solution until Sierra or some other prospect comes along would seem a no-brainer.
That said, the report suggested that the Nats tried to trade him to pretty much anyone and came up short. You can't help but wonder why a team like the Jays wouldn't have spared a marginal reliever or some such just to get a first shot at seeing what he's got. If all it costs us is Steve Stifole or something, where's the harm?
Again, what am I missing here?
Sunday, 14 March 2010
More Alphabet Soup!
As I suggested in this space almost three weeks ago, Alex Anthopoulos made his play for coveted Cuban defector shortstop Adenis Hechavarria, and if reports are true, he has apparently been successful, and not only that - successful in signing a player the Yankees wanted pretty intently.
I can't tell you how pleased I am about the signing, but the fact that he picked the Jays over the Yankees is like a warm sweet syrup poured all over the top.
He's been compared to such Luminaries as Alphonso Soriano and Ichero Suzuki. His defense is said to be better than former teammate and current Red sox prospect Jose Iglesias who has been described as a world class defender.
The only fly in this story is that apparently Hec (gotta have a nickname for a name that hard to spell!) is 21, not 19 as was previously reported. But even that might not be so bad, theoretically it might mean he's closer to the bigs. the problem we have is that ideally you'd start a guy like this at Dunedin. Both the level of competition and the weather works for you there.
but the Jays already have two of their three best SS prospects tentatively at the High A level, and Farm Director Tony LaCava says the Jays will put a guy where he belongs, not push him because he's "supposed" to be promoted.
So what to do? Well, bumping Tyler Pastornicky back to Lansing is a relatively easy call. He's just turned 20 and while he did reach Dunedin last year, it was for a mere 63 at bats. It's not like he owned Lo-A either. At Lansing his BA was .266 and his OBP (hes no slugger so we won't speak of that) was only .331, so let's dispense with the illusion he is somehow entitled to a promotion.
the other presumptive Dunedin shortstop is personal favorite Justin Jackson. Jackson was sidelined most of the second half of last season by a shoulder injury. the same injury which possibly contributed to his horrendous stat line for the Hi-A Jays last year. My thought here is that you hold Jackson in extended Spring Training in order to see if he's all the way back from the injury and work on his mechanics. Let Hec start the year in Dunedin with an eye towards promoting him to AA in Early May at which time Jackson gets activated.
This is just my speculation, I have no idea how it will play out.
In fact, it's probably time I admitted that the reports are as yet unconfirmed that he will in fact sign with the Jays, but hey, you know what I mean.
Looking ahead a few years you could see a 2013 lineup that included Hill, Lind, Snider, Wallace, Hec, and one or both of D'Arnoud and Arencibia (one wonders who might be shifted to 3B in the upcoming years if Alex doesn't make a trade for one). that's a pretty solid (potentially) offensive core to go along with considerable depth of talent on the mound.
What's not to like!?
I can't tell you how pleased I am about the signing, but the fact that he picked the Jays over the Yankees is like a warm sweet syrup poured all over the top.
He's been compared to such Luminaries as Alphonso Soriano and Ichero Suzuki. His defense is said to be better than former teammate and current Red sox prospect Jose Iglesias who has been described as a world class defender.
The only fly in this story is that apparently Hec (gotta have a nickname for a name that hard to spell!) is 21, not 19 as was previously reported. But even that might not be so bad, theoretically it might mean he's closer to the bigs. the problem we have is that ideally you'd start a guy like this at Dunedin. Both the level of competition and the weather works for you there.
but the Jays already have two of their three best SS prospects tentatively at the High A level, and Farm Director Tony LaCava says the Jays will put a guy where he belongs, not push him because he's "supposed" to be promoted.
So what to do? Well, bumping Tyler Pastornicky back to Lansing is a relatively easy call. He's just turned 20 and while he did reach Dunedin last year, it was for a mere 63 at bats. It's not like he owned Lo-A either. At Lansing his BA was .266 and his OBP (hes no slugger so we won't speak of that) was only .331, so let's dispense with the illusion he is somehow entitled to a promotion.
the other presumptive Dunedin shortstop is personal favorite Justin Jackson. Jackson was sidelined most of the second half of last season by a shoulder injury. the same injury which possibly contributed to his horrendous stat line for the Hi-A Jays last year. My thought here is that you hold Jackson in extended Spring Training in order to see if he's all the way back from the injury and work on his mechanics. Let Hec start the year in Dunedin with an eye towards promoting him to AA in Early May at which time Jackson gets activated.
This is just my speculation, I have no idea how it will play out.
In fact, it's probably time I admitted that the reports are as yet unconfirmed that he will in fact sign with the Jays, but hey, you know what I mean.
Looking ahead a few years you could see a 2013 lineup that included Hill, Lind, Snider, Wallace, Hec, and one or both of D'Arnoud and Arencibia (one wonders who might be shifted to 3B in the upcoming years if Alex doesn't make a trade for one). that's a pretty solid (potentially) offensive core to go along with considerable depth of talent on the mound.
What's not to like!?
Going Young
Probably no writer connected to the Jays swings as wildly from good sense to "WTF!?!" as Richard Griffin, and he catches his share of grief for the latter. But this time he does pretty well - well enough I want to steal the idea in order to modify it a bit.
Griffin proposes to look at what the Jays future roster would look like made up only of players born after January 1, 1984 but honestly, that's really just kind of a gimicky way to tie into a well known number. It has no specific baseball related relevance. So even though it's an interesting thought, he still kind of screwed it up looking for the hook.
So here's my modification: Lets agree that Aaron Hill is the new heartbeat of the team. with all due respect to Vernon, the burden of his contract undermines the idea this is "Wells' team" plus, he's old enough that the exercise is kind of silly if you set his age as the cutoff.
So, while noting that there's no way to move Wells for at least the next three seasons, let's say that he's the only guy on the team older than Hil (who is just about to turn 28).
So you'd lose, off the current group, the following -
Jose Bautista
Lyle Overbay
John McDonald
Mike McCoy
Alex Gonzalez
John Buck
Jose Molina
Merkin Valdez
Brian Tallet
Scott Richmond
Shaun Marcum
Casey Janssen
Dirk Hayhurst
Kevin Gregg
Jason Frasor
Scott Downs
Jesse Carlson
Shawn Camp
Jeremy Accardo
Okay hold it - let's make an exception for Marcum, he's about 3 months older than Hill so he can be the "senior" man on the pitching staff.
Otherwise, what you have there is a list of players who, no matter how good they are, are placeholders, or bridge players to the players who'll make up the next Jays contender. I have no problem, of course, letting some of the older guys stopgap - I'm not saying waive the lot of them. I'm just illustrating the idea that none of these guys are integral to the Jays' medium range future. Even though some of them were late enough getting to the majors they might well still be here in 2012 (such as Jesse Carlson).
With few exceptions, if any, there's a clear picture here of guys who are only keeping a spot warm for younger players to come (Accardo and Camp give way to Collins and Farquhar for instance, or Buck and Molina holding a spot for Arencibia)
Like many others, I'm really excited about how that team stands to come together. It should be an easy team for which to root. If I can just grit my teeth and make it through one more year of The Manager's . . . creativity.
Griffin proposes to look at what the Jays future roster would look like made up only of players born after January 1, 1984 but honestly, that's really just kind of a gimicky way to tie into a well known number. It has no specific baseball related relevance. So even though it's an interesting thought, he still kind of screwed it up looking for the hook.
So here's my modification: Lets agree that Aaron Hill is the new heartbeat of the team. with all due respect to Vernon, the burden of his contract undermines the idea this is "Wells' team" plus, he's old enough that the exercise is kind of silly if you set his age as the cutoff.
So, while noting that there's no way to move Wells for at least the next three seasons, let's say that he's the only guy on the team older than Hil (who is just about to turn 28).
So you'd lose, off the current group, the following -
Jose Bautista
Lyle Overbay
John McDonald
Mike McCoy
Alex Gonzalez
John Buck
Jose Molina
Merkin Valdez
Brian Tallet
Scott Richmond
Shaun Marcum
Casey Janssen
Dirk Hayhurst
Kevin Gregg
Jason Frasor
Scott Downs
Jesse Carlson
Shawn Camp
Jeremy Accardo
Okay hold it - let's make an exception for Marcum, he's about 3 months older than Hill so he can be the "senior" man on the pitching staff.
Otherwise, what you have there is a list of players who, no matter how good they are, are placeholders, or bridge players to the players who'll make up the next Jays contender. I have no problem, of course, letting some of the older guys stopgap - I'm not saying waive the lot of them. I'm just illustrating the idea that none of these guys are integral to the Jays' medium range future. Even though some of them were late enough getting to the majors they might well still be here in 2012 (such as Jesse Carlson).
With few exceptions, if any, there's a clear picture here of guys who are only keeping a spot warm for younger players to come (Accardo and Camp give way to Collins and Farquhar for instance, or Buck and Molina holding a spot for Arencibia)
Like many others, I'm really excited about how that team stands to come together. It should be an easy team for which to root. If I can just grit my teeth and make it through one more year of The Manager's . . . creativity.
Thursday, 11 March 2010
What's All This Then?
There's an opinion that seems to have a lot of currency in the Jays blogosphere to the effect that the Jays don't need a fifth starter that much in April. to that I say: "Huh?"
Notably of late, Mop Up Duty elaborates on the point here, but in truth, they have to send guys out on short rest four times to get that (including the recovering McGowan TWICE!) effect. Now, I'll refrain from involving myself in the "Morrow to the minors" theme which the post is actually about (I disagree but no matter) and just concentrate on the scheduling.
Jordan Bastian has discerned, rightly so in my opinion, that the Jays seem to be targeting an opening day rotation of Marcum/Romero/Morrow/Zep/Tallet, with all of us more or less assuming Tallet is a placeholder for better pitchers to come.
Now I am perfectly fine with the idea that you start McGowan out on the DL to get his stamina built up and then slot him in for Tallet, but one hopes Clarance doesn't fall in love with him. In any case, I project the pitching schedule like this:
(x=off day)
4/5 - Marcum
4/6 - x
4/7 - Romero
4/8 - Morrow
4/9 - Zep
4/10- Marcum
4/11- Romero
4/12- Tallet
4/13- Morrow
4/14- Zep
4/15- Marcum
4/16- Romero
4/17- Tallet
4/18- Morrow
4/19- Zep
4/20- Marcum
4/21- Romero
4/22- x
4/23- Morrow
4/24- Zep
4/25- Marcum
4/26- Romero
4/27- McGowan
4/28- Morrow
4/29- Zep
See what I did there? IF I send Romero on three days rest on 4/11, then I can get it down (if they are slotted properly) to three appearances for the "fifth" pitcher in April. but if no one goes on short rest then Tallet would get three starts by 4/21. and if we assume McGowan joins the rotation on 4/26 that's 4 starts in the month for the "fifth" starter. But that's not really that remarkable since a couple of starters will only get five starts in any given month.
Maybe it's just me but I'm not overly impressed with the number of off days in April or the convenience of them.
But to reiterate, that's not to say I'm against the idea of using Tallet to get two (or three) early starts as long as we understand it's not anything more than that.
Notably of late, Mop Up Duty elaborates on the point here, but in truth, they have to send guys out on short rest four times to get that (including the recovering McGowan TWICE!) effect. Now, I'll refrain from involving myself in the "Morrow to the minors" theme which the post is actually about (I disagree but no matter) and just concentrate on the scheduling.
Jordan Bastian has discerned, rightly so in my opinion, that the Jays seem to be targeting an opening day rotation of Marcum/Romero/Morrow/Zep/Tallet, with all of us more or less assuming Tallet is a placeholder for better pitchers to come.
Now I am perfectly fine with the idea that you start McGowan out on the DL to get his stamina built up and then slot him in for Tallet, but one hopes Clarance doesn't fall in love with him. In any case, I project the pitching schedule like this:
(x=off day)
4/5 - Marcum
4/6 - x
4/7 - Romero
4/8 - Morrow
4/9 - Zep
4/10- Marcum
4/11- Romero
4/12- Tallet
4/13- Morrow
4/14- Zep
4/15- Marcum
4/16- Romero
4/17- Tallet
4/18- Morrow
4/19- Zep
4/20- Marcum
4/21- Romero
4/22- x
4/23- Morrow
4/24- Zep
4/25- Marcum
4/26- Romero
4/27- McGowan
4/28- Morrow
4/29- Zep
See what I did there? IF I send Romero on three days rest on 4/11, then I can get it down (if they are slotted properly) to three appearances for the "fifth" pitcher in April. but if no one goes on short rest then Tallet would get three starts by 4/21. and if we assume McGowan joins the rotation on 4/26 that's 4 starts in the month for the "fifth" starter. But that's not really that remarkable since a couple of starters will only get five starts in any given month.
Maybe it's just me but I'm not overly impressed with the number of off days in April or the convenience of them.
But to reiterate, that's not to say I'm against the idea of using Tallet to get two (or three) early starts as long as we understand it's not anything more than that.
Sunday, 7 March 2010
Obligatory Spring Post
Is it just me or is it getting more and more difficult to contribute something unique and original to the Jays' blogosphere?
Whatever it is one might propose to discuss, someone somewhere has probably already exhaustively covered the subject (as in the Tao's fine look at the rotation candidates).
So being at a loss for some transcendent truth to impart, let me settle instead for some which reactions to the spring events so far:
1. I'm just as frustrated with Cito's - check that, Clarance's - semi-regular "WTF?" moment as the rest of you - just completely tired of cataloging the events;
2. I am irrationally enthused with Arencibia's hot start, and am anxious to believe he'll join the Jays for good sometime in the second half of the season (hopefully after we score a prospect from some sucker for John Buck);
3. I'm kind of buying into the "Molina will be a great teacher for the young pitchers" meme, albeit I suppose Chavez would be a pretty good teacher himself;
4. Feeling real good about Marcum this year, despite those who would have me believe i should be concerned because he's coming off TJ . . . I'm also giddyly watching the progress of McGowan but much more in tune with the long odds against him being all the way back;
5. All the Zep-love is fun to hear ain't it?
6. Is it just me or does anyone else get the vibe that Clarance has a serious chip on his shoulder regarding Snider? part of me had almost rather see Snider in Vegas all year as to see him get yanked around by his Manager;
7. I'm sorry - I may eat my words down the line but I'm going to have to SEE JB hit RHP in a regular season game - in a LOT of regular season games - before I join the BAS. I'm a hard core skeptic of the Bautista at lead-off idea;
8. I'd be a lot more enthused about Ruiz if I thought it meant Lind in LF and Snider in RF most days for the jays....but then I'd have to wonder who the hell was going to lead off right? Sigh. Well, maybe he'll at least get to platoon with Overbay anyway;
9. Ruiz's success kind of makes me take a sad glance over at Dopirak but I don't really think the Jays have any intention of actually considering Dopirak for the April roster anyway - they would have promoted him faster last year if that were the case;
10. Am I the only one that wants to see Jason Frasor have a MONSTER year this year? Just, ya know, to get in the face of his detractors;
That's pretty much all I got right now...
Whatever it is one might propose to discuss, someone somewhere has probably already exhaustively covered the subject (as in the Tao's fine look at the rotation candidates).
So being at a loss for some transcendent truth to impart, let me settle instead for some which reactions to the spring events so far:
1. I'm just as frustrated with Cito's - check that, Clarance's - semi-regular "WTF?" moment as the rest of you - just completely tired of cataloging the events;
2. I am irrationally enthused with Arencibia's hot start, and am anxious to believe he'll join the Jays for good sometime in the second half of the season (hopefully after we score a prospect from some sucker for John Buck);
3. I'm kind of buying into the "Molina will be a great teacher for the young pitchers" meme, albeit I suppose Chavez would be a pretty good teacher himself;
4. Feeling real good about Marcum this year, despite those who would have me believe i should be concerned because he's coming off TJ . . . I'm also giddyly watching the progress of McGowan but much more in tune with the long odds against him being all the way back;
5. All the Zep-love is fun to hear ain't it?
6. Is it just me or does anyone else get the vibe that Clarance has a serious chip on his shoulder regarding Snider? part of me had almost rather see Snider in Vegas all year as to see him get yanked around by his Manager;
7. I'm sorry - I may eat my words down the line but I'm going to have to SEE JB hit RHP in a regular season game - in a LOT of regular season games - before I join the BAS. I'm a hard core skeptic of the Bautista at lead-off idea;
8. I'd be a lot more enthused about Ruiz if I thought it meant Lind in LF and Snider in RF most days for the jays....but then I'd have to wonder who the hell was going to lead off right? Sigh. Well, maybe he'll at least get to platoon with Overbay anyway;
9. Ruiz's success kind of makes me take a sad glance over at Dopirak but I don't really think the Jays have any intention of actually considering Dopirak for the April roster anyway - they would have promoted him faster last year if that were the case;
10. Am I the only one that wants to see Jason Frasor have a MONSTER year this year? Just, ya know, to get in the face of his detractors;
That's pretty much all I got right now...
Saturday, 27 February 2010
Sifting for Gold
I had anticipated that as Spring Training got rolling there would be more to comment on from the Jays but it seems that every micro-story (Snider adjusts swing, Ruiz loses weight, et al) is easily and thoroughly parsed by a multitude of other blogs and unless I find myself in abject disagreement on some point, I'm loath to re-address a story thoroughly examined by others.
Still, every couple of weeks one has to say SOME thing. Of all the news of note I've seen lately, the thing that most catches my imagination is the Jays reported interest (according to Jordan Bastian) in Adeiny Hechevarria.
The flashy fielding Cuban SS, who turns 22 in about a month, has been described thusly:
That's an impressive description. As much as I'm still a reasonably enthusiastic fan of Justin Jackson, I think the Jays HAVE to be top bidder here. AA has been quoted as saying they've tried offering huge packages for other teams young star shortstops, and they obviously had a lot of cash on hand to offer to Chapman. Even though there are other teams interested, I'm thinking we go all-in on a guy like this. He'd instantly become one of the top 3 or 4 prospects in the organization and probably slot in at New Hampshire with an eye on reaching the bigs by 2012. Of course, prospects often don't live up to their hype - particularly Cuban prospects. But such is the dirth of available high upside young SS talent, I think this is a place where you roll the dice and put your best effort into winning this bid.
Other random one-liner(ish) thoughts -
Still, every couple of weeks one has to say SOME thing. Of all the news of note I've seen lately, the thing that most catches my imagination is the Jays reported interest (according to Jordan Bastian) in Adeiny Hechevarria.
The flashy fielding Cuban SS, who turns 22 in about a month, has been described thusly:
an 'offensive-minded' shortstop in the Cal Ripken mode: a high-average hitter with above-average power. At the plate, his spray chart looks a little more like Ichiro Suzuki: he has a knack for finding infield holes and hitting behind runners. He'll command a high signing bonus and start in the minor leagues, with 2012 or 2013 looking like a possible MLB arrival date.
That's an impressive description. As much as I'm still a reasonably enthusiastic fan of Justin Jackson, I think the Jays HAVE to be top bidder here. AA has been quoted as saying they've tried offering huge packages for other teams young star shortstops, and they obviously had a lot of cash on hand to offer to Chapman. Even though there are other teams interested, I'm thinking we go all-in on a guy like this. He'd instantly become one of the top 3 or 4 prospects in the organization and probably slot in at New Hampshire with an eye on reaching the bigs by 2012. Of course, prospects often don't live up to their hype - particularly Cuban prospects. But such is the dirth of available high upside young SS talent, I think this is a place where you roll the dice and put your best effort into winning this bid.
Other random one-liner(ish) thoughts -
- Bautista is the lead-off hitter is gonna make a LOT of outs v. RHPs this year. My greatest reservation about this team is that Joey Gathright was the best they could do to attempt to remedy that;
- I'm very optimistic, perhaps too much so, about the starting rotation;
- It's really hard to not get wrapped up in the possibility McGowan is all the way back. Someone (can't remember who) reminds us Janssen looked really good at this point last year as well;
- I would worry more about Clarance planning on leaving Hil hitting second if there was a reasonable alternative in that spot. As good as Overbay's OBP is (vs RHP) he's really a as problematic in that role as Hill;
- A few reports are out suggesting that JP Arencibia had LASIK eye surgery last fall. I'm all a-twitter to see if he steps up offensively this year as a result;
- I'm already looking forward to July with anticipation that the Jays will shuffle off as many spare older players as possible to get guys like Wallace and JPA into the lineup;
- I'm calmly enthused about Snider's touched up swing. If he steps up and Wells and Encarnacion rebound, the offense will be pretty impressive 2-7;
Thursday, 11 February 2010
Revised Top Prospect Rankings
Maybe it's safe to do this now, with less than 10 days remaining before pitchers and catchers report. I'm not going to make a big production out of this wilth all the bells and whistles, I'm just going to run down the list. The changes reflect both the trades that have been made since the original list, and new information which would affect my opinion.
I'm going to rank a whopping 50 guys. As usual I disclaim this by saying no team actually has 50 "prospects," rather these are more precisely a few prospects and a lot of guys who could become prospects. but I'm trying to mention everyone in the system (with the possible exception of the DSL which is hard to evaluate for a lot of reasons) that you might be excited about sometime in the future, or at least might be considered a possibility to actually pull on a big league uniform at some point, however briefly.
It's worth noting that there are several players who are not "established" in the majors but who have too many appearances there to be ranked as prospects. These players would certainly strengthen the following list if they were still eligible. Among them most noteably, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepczynski and of course Travis Snider.
On top of that, I'll mention a few more guys at the end who could arguably have been on the list.
(Age as of April 1, 2010)
1. Kyle Drabek / RHSP / 22 - Some recent lists put Wallace first, but in my opinion, the big question mark on Drabek was said to be some maturity/attitude issues and the latest reports say that's no longer an issue. Ever the optimist, I'm sticking with the thesis that he has a chance to be a good #1 pitcher.
2. Brett Wallace / 1B / 23 - I would be more sympathetic to the idea of ranking him first if there was a real shot he'd stick at third base, but the Jays management has been very clear that's not the plan. Still, I like Wallace as the sort of hitter Nick Johnson was at his peak.
3. Henderson Alverez / RHSP / 19 - The kid turns 20 in mid-April, and he's impressed a lot of people. I like his growth curve, I like his performance at such a young age, I love his control, and Dunedin (and the FSL in general, where he'll play this year) is traditionally kind to pitchers. I think I'm the only one who has him this high, but he's for real, in my opinon.
4. Zach Stewart / RHSP / 23 - For all the talk that he'd be a stud reliever, the Jays seem (rightfully) committed to seeing things through in building up his endurance to start. there's a lot to like about Stewart and a lot of folks had him #1 before the Halladay deal. He'll pitch at AAA this year but temper expectations about him making a big impact in Toronto this year because his innings will be capped at 140 or so this year in all likelihood.
5. JP Arencibia / C / 24 - All prospect watchers know JPA had a rough year last year, but I may be the only one who keeps pointing out he was rushed to AAA and should have started (at least) 2009 in AA. In addition, Tony LaCava implied in a recent interview that Arencibia's (since resolved) kidney issues might have contributed and also revealed that JP has had Lasik eye surgery in the off-season which often works wonders (See Denard Span for a recent example).
6. Travis d'Arnaud / C / 21 - A couple of steps further back than Arencibia, he's said to be a more complete player. One wouldn't be doing a strange thing to flip the two in the rankings. I have a hunch he'll see a bit more development in power and might be one of the more productive catchers in the game at some point. I wonder if, should both these guys turn out well, the Jays might not think about shifting one of them to 3B in a few years.
7. Chad Jenkins / RHSP / 22 - Hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, but one always hopes their #1 pick is a top 10 prospect. Jenkins has a lot of good reviews, most projecting him as a workhorse type #2 or #3 guy. Possibly he could start out in Dunedin this year.
8. Jake Marisnick / CF / 19 - The proverbial "five tool" guy, Marisnick was considered something of a steal in the 4th round this last year. Like Jenkins, he hasn't done a thing in pro-ball yet, but there seems to be a very good "vibe" around him. LaCava says the Jays will be more cautious with moving high school prospects than they have been so you are probably looking at a four year wait, more or less, to see Marisnick play for the Jays. Unless he forces the issue as Snider did.
9. Mosies Sierra / RF / 21 - Still waiting on the power to develop, but in a lot of ways this guy looks like he could be another Alex Rios, though hopefully without the more frustrating qualities.
10. Justin Jackson / SS / 21 - a lot of people have all but given up on the 2007 high school crop, but Jays management feels the group was rushed. I agree. Sierra is the same age and he took a big step forward by repeating Lo-A ball instead of being pushed to Dunedin with Jackson and his classmates. On top of that, Jackson has had left shoulder issues going back to 2008 which were hopefully resolved by surgery last season. It's because of the injury that I give Jackson a mulligan while dropping the others, but it would be a mistake to give up on any of the three.
11. Carlos Perez / C / 19 - Jays can afford to take it slow with impressive kid.
12. Brad Mills / LHSP / 25 - lost in the numbers game, but don't count him out.
13. Josh Roenicke / RHRP / 27 - late convert to pitching, don't let age fool you.
14. Gustovo Pierre / SS / 18 - very raw, massive potential, may grow out of SS.
15. David Cooper / 1B / 23 - Even if he gets it together, Wallace clouds his future.
16. Eric Thames / LF/ 23 - all he does is hit and get hurt.
17. Brian Dopirak / 1B / 26 - Like Cooper, Wallace creates a problem for him.
18. Robert Bell / RHSP / 24 - I rank him higher than anyone but I think he deserves it.
19. Brad Emaus / 2B / 24 - ranking down some from last year but not down on him.
20. Scott Campbell / 2B / 25 - lost a year to injuries and bad ideas, still a great bat IMO.
21. Kevin Ahrens / 3B / 21 - this is the year for him to step up if he's going to.
22. Tim Collins / LHRP / 20 - I think he's really good but it's difficult to rank relievers highly.
23. Danny Farquhar / RHRP / 23 - interesting skill set, solid results.
24. Tyler Pastornicky / SS / 20 - a lot to like but I don't see the ceiling some do yet.
25. Darin Mastorianni / CF / 24 - Podsednick skill set, Johnson's "scrappiness"?
26. Adam Loewen / LF / 26 - flashes of promise last year, needs to start putting it together.
27. John Tolisano / 2B / 21 - Defense said to be improving, needs to take a step.
28. Bobby Ray / RHSP / 26 - probably crowded out of rotation, could be solid reliever.
29. Andrew Liebel / RHSP / 24 - Hasn't impressed me much yet.
30. Luis Perez / LHSP / 25 - Depth chart not on his side, bullpen or trade in his future.
31. KC Hobson / 1B / 19 - could be a big mover on next year's list.
32. Jose Vargas / LHSP / 19 - Rocked the DSL in 2009, need to see what he can do in the States.
33. Sean Ochinko / C / 22 - will stick with him behind the plate for now, maybe 3B in the future.
34. Brian Jeroloman / C / 25 - definate step back in 2009, needs to regroup.
35. Ryan Goins / SS / 22 - High floor, low ceiling guy.
36. Yan Gomes / C / 22 - could really climb by this time next year.
37. Ryan Schimpf / 2B / 22 - looks like a fringy guy to me.
38. Kenny Rodriguez / RHSP / 25 - yet to step up, depth works against him.
39. Robert Sobolewski / 3B / 23 - real ordinary year from a guy thought to be a steal.
40. Trystan Magnuson / RHRP/ 24 - might top out as a AAAA type shuttle rider.
41. Mike McDade / 1B / 21 - intriguing bat, worrisome waistline.
42. Antonio Jimminez / C / 19 - Six catchers in front of him, needs to show something.
43. Kyle Ginley / RHSP / 23 - can he stay healthy?
44. Egan Smith / LHSP / 21 - impresive debut, needs to be challenged at Lansing maybe.
45. Chuck Huggins / LHSP / 23 - one of those guys who might not look so good at higher levels.
46. Daniel Webb / RHSP / 19 - possible sleeper, no pro appearances yet.
47. Balbino Fuenmayor / 3B / 20 - needs to start finding a bit of plate discipline.
48. Joel Cerrano / RHP / 23 - depth makes him a potential reliever, marginal guy though.
49. Devy Estrada / RHP / 17 - DSL is hard to read but his stats were impressive.
50. Reider Gonzalez / RHP / 24 - pretty decent numbers but I don't get the impression he'll make it.
Other names you might see on next years list: Wellinton Ramirez, Kenny Wilson, Marcus Brisker, Eric Eiland, Brad McElroy, Lance Durham.
Also, let me mention Kyle Phillips. He's not strictly a prospect, but he might step up and surprise this year. the thing is, if he does that well he won't be eligible for next years list. but to be clear, I don't think he's going to be an impact guy - just that he might be better than we think.
So, there ya go - all the names you need to know for the Jays system this year. Forgive any typos, this took 2 hours to write and I'm not proofing it any more.
I'm going to rank a whopping 50 guys. As usual I disclaim this by saying no team actually has 50 "prospects," rather these are more precisely a few prospects and a lot of guys who could become prospects. but I'm trying to mention everyone in the system (with the possible exception of the DSL which is hard to evaluate for a lot of reasons) that you might be excited about sometime in the future, or at least might be considered a possibility to actually pull on a big league uniform at some point, however briefly.
It's worth noting that there are several players who are not "established" in the majors but who have too many appearances there to be ranked as prospects. These players would certainly strengthen the following list if they were still eligible. Among them most noteably, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepczynski and of course Travis Snider.
On top of that, I'll mention a few more guys at the end who could arguably have been on the list.
(Age as of April 1, 2010)
1. Kyle Drabek / RHSP / 22 - Some recent lists put Wallace first, but in my opinion, the big question mark on Drabek was said to be some maturity/attitude issues and the latest reports say that's no longer an issue. Ever the optimist, I'm sticking with the thesis that he has a chance to be a good #1 pitcher.
2. Brett Wallace / 1B / 23 - I would be more sympathetic to the idea of ranking him first if there was a real shot he'd stick at third base, but the Jays management has been very clear that's not the plan. Still, I like Wallace as the sort of hitter Nick Johnson was at his peak.
3. Henderson Alverez / RHSP / 19 - The kid turns 20 in mid-April, and he's impressed a lot of people. I like his growth curve, I like his performance at such a young age, I love his control, and Dunedin (and the FSL in general, where he'll play this year) is traditionally kind to pitchers. I think I'm the only one who has him this high, but he's for real, in my opinon.
4. Zach Stewart / RHSP / 23 - For all the talk that he'd be a stud reliever, the Jays seem (rightfully) committed to seeing things through in building up his endurance to start. there's a lot to like about Stewart and a lot of folks had him #1 before the Halladay deal. He'll pitch at AAA this year but temper expectations about him making a big impact in Toronto this year because his innings will be capped at 140 or so this year in all likelihood.
5. JP Arencibia / C / 24 - All prospect watchers know JPA had a rough year last year, but I may be the only one who keeps pointing out he was rushed to AAA and should have started (at least) 2009 in AA. In addition, Tony LaCava implied in a recent interview that Arencibia's (since resolved) kidney issues might have contributed and also revealed that JP has had Lasik eye surgery in the off-season which often works wonders (See Denard Span for a recent example).
6. Travis d'Arnaud / C / 21 - A couple of steps further back than Arencibia, he's said to be a more complete player. One wouldn't be doing a strange thing to flip the two in the rankings. I have a hunch he'll see a bit more development in power and might be one of the more productive catchers in the game at some point. I wonder if, should both these guys turn out well, the Jays might not think about shifting one of them to 3B in a few years.
7. Chad Jenkins / RHSP / 22 - Hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, but one always hopes their #1 pick is a top 10 prospect. Jenkins has a lot of good reviews, most projecting him as a workhorse type #2 or #3 guy. Possibly he could start out in Dunedin this year.
8. Jake Marisnick / CF / 19 - The proverbial "five tool" guy, Marisnick was considered something of a steal in the 4th round this last year. Like Jenkins, he hasn't done a thing in pro-ball yet, but there seems to be a very good "vibe" around him. LaCava says the Jays will be more cautious with moving high school prospects than they have been so you are probably looking at a four year wait, more or less, to see Marisnick play for the Jays. Unless he forces the issue as Snider did.
9. Mosies Sierra / RF / 21 - Still waiting on the power to develop, but in a lot of ways this guy looks like he could be another Alex Rios, though hopefully without the more frustrating qualities.
10. Justin Jackson / SS / 21 - a lot of people have all but given up on the 2007 high school crop, but Jays management feels the group was rushed. I agree. Sierra is the same age and he took a big step forward by repeating Lo-A ball instead of being pushed to Dunedin with Jackson and his classmates. On top of that, Jackson has had left shoulder issues going back to 2008 which were hopefully resolved by surgery last season. It's because of the injury that I give Jackson a mulligan while dropping the others, but it would be a mistake to give up on any of the three.
11. Carlos Perez / C / 19 - Jays can afford to take it slow with impressive kid.
12. Brad Mills / LHSP / 25 - lost in the numbers game, but don't count him out.
13. Josh Roenicke / RHRP / 27 - late convert to pitching, don't let age fool you.
14. Gustovo Pierre / SS / 18 - very raw, massive potential, may grow out of SS.
15. David Cooper / 1B / 23 - Even if he gets it together, Wallace clouds his future.
16. Eric Thames / LF/ 23 - all he does is hit and get hurt.
17. Brian Dopirak / 1B / 26 - Like Cooper, Wallace creates a problem for him.
18. Robert Bell / RHSP / 24 - I rank him higher than anyone but I think he deserves it.
19. Brad Emaus / 2B / 24 - ranking down some from last year but not down on him.
20. Scott Campbell / 2B / 25 - lost a year to injuries and bad ideas, still a great bat IMO.
21. Kevin Ahrens / 3B / 21 - this is the year for him to step up if he's going to.
22. Tim Collins / LHRP / 20 - I think he's really good but it's difficult to rank relievers highly.
23. Danny Farquhar / RHRP / 23 - interesting skill set, solid results.
24. Tyler Pastornicky / SS / 20 - a lot to like but I don't see the ceiling some do yet.
25. Darin Mastorianni / CF / 24 - Podsednick skill set, Johnson's "scrappiness"?
26. Adam Loewen / LF / 26 - flashes of promise last year, needs to start putting it together.
27. John Tolisano / 2B / 21 - Defense said to be improving, needs to take a step.
28. Bobby Ray / RHSP / 26 - probably crowded out of rotation, could be solid reliever.
29. Andrew Liebel / RHSP / 24 - Hasn't impressed me much yet.
30. Luis Perez / LHSP / 25 - Depth chart not on his side, bullpen or trade in his future.
31. KC Hobson / 1B / 19 - could be a big mover on next year's list.
32. Jose Vargas / LHSP / 19 - Rocked the DSL in 2009, need to see what he can do in the States.
33. Sean Ochinko / C / 22 - will stick with him behind the plate for now, maybe 3B in the future.
34. Brian Jeroloman / C / 25 - definate step back in 2009, needs to regroup.
35. Ryan Goins / SS / 22 - High floor, low ceiling guy.
36. Yan Gomes / C / 22 - could really climb by this time next year.
37. Ryan Schimpf / 2B / 22 - looks like a fringy guy to me.
38. Kenny Rodriguez / RHSP / 25 - yet to step up, depth works against him.
39. Robert Sobolewski / 3B / 23 - real ordinary year from a guy thought to be a steal.
40. Trystan Magnuson / RHRP/ 24 - might top out as a AAAA type shuttle rider.
41. Mike McDade / 1B / 21 - intriguing bat, worrisome waistline.
42. Antonio Jimminez / C / 19 - Six catchers in front of him, needs to show something.
43. Kyle Ginley / RHSP / 23 - can he stay healthy?
44. Egan Smith / LHSP / 21 - impresive debut, needs to be challenged at Lansing maybe.
45. Chuck Huggins / LHSP / 23 - one of those guys who might not look so good at higher levels.
46. Daniel Webb / RHSP / 19 - possible sleeper, no pro appearances yet.
47. Balbino Fuenmayor / 3B / 20 - needs to start finding a bit of plate discipline.
48. Joel Cerrano / RHP / 23 - depth makes him a potential reliever, marginal guy though.
49. Devy Estrada / RHP / 17 - DSL is hard to read but his stats were impressive.
50. Reider Gonzalez / RHP / 24 - pretty decent numbers but I don't get the impression he'll make it.
Other names you might see on next years list: Wellinton Ramirez, Kenny Wilson, Marcus Brisker, Eric Eiland, Brad McElroy, Lance Durham.
Also, let me mention Kyle Phillips. He's not strictly a prospect, but he might step up and surprise this year. the thing is, if he does that well he won't be eligible for next years list. but to be clear, I don't think he's going to be an impact guy - just that he might be better than we think.
So, there ya go - all the names you need to know for the Jays system this year. Forgive any typos, this took 2 hours to write and I'm not proofing it any more.
Monday, 1 February 2010
In a Fantasy World
I am prone, during the dog days of winter, to let my imagination run towards what I would do if I was making the decisions about the upcoming season (you might have noticed this tendency, or even have it yourself). I'm calling this a fantasy world based on the fact that in some cases i don't know what it would take to make the fantasy come true.
Well, not entirely a fantasy world - in a fantasy world Hanley Ramirez would be our shortstop on opening day but the point is, within the context of what we have in hand and what might reasonably be done with it without going totally around the bend from reality
So, I'm going to take a pass on the pitching because there are just TOO many moving parts there. I'm not in a position to say whether McGowan comes back healthy, whether Morrow continues to improve his control, whether Zep looks better than Cecil in Spring or vice versa...almost any scenario there would be of interest to me. but on the hitting side, there's still a lot of players who don't enthuse me, so I can project a lot of potential moves.
Here's my ideal starting lineup and how I get there:
1. Damon - LF: last best hope for a competent lead-off hitter
2. Hill - 2B: needs to be hitting sixth, but no one else really fits here
3. Lind - 1B: Comfortable and no reason to move him down.
4. Delgado - DH: one sure way to keep Wells out of the spot
5. Wells - CF: maybe a bit less pressure? usually hits better when lower than #4
6. Snider - RF: run him out there and trust him
7. Encarnacion - 3B: natural place for him, hope he bounces back
8. Buck - c: no other place for him
9. Gonzalez - SS: he has to hit sometime, hiding him at nine is all you can do.
The thinking here is that while we all know Wells doesn't belong in CF, the jays are not ready to give up on that yet, plus, i am not sure that we lose more runs with Wells defending in CF than we do with Bautista as the full time lead off guy - it would be hard to believe. So Damon is the one remaining solution to the #1 spot.
I've dispatched Overbay, not because I hate him as many do, but because I'd rather have Delgado and because I hate being constrained to make up for Lyle's weakness vs LHP. I admit there are few options for dealing him - perhaps the marlins can prove they are not hording money by taking him on? Probably the biggest pipe dream here is that such a deal is out there.
Lind at 1B belies Anthopoulos' assertion that Wallace will be a 1B but even if it's only for one year (id Delgado is only here for one) Lind can muddle through and Wallace can get over-ripe in AAA. Alternately, you can take a bit longer to give up on him at 3B by playing him there in Vegas. If he succeeds as a 3B, then you can deal EE in July (if he's a success this year) or non-tender him in the fall (if he's mediocre) or outright ditch him (if he's bad) when you think Wallace is ready. If, on the other hand, you are committed to Wallace at 1B, there's still no reason that deals or injuries can't open a second-half door for him if need be. It wouldn't be be the WORST thing in the world if he was in AAA all year (in fact, that's what would happen if Overbay isn't dealt).
The money you save on Overbay, if you moved the whole deal, might very well pay for Damon and Delgado. If you had to include a reliever to Florida to get them to take Overbay, then so much the more balance for the costs.
What does all this mean in the real world? Not a damn thing really. Just wanted to have it written down.
Well, not entirely a fantasy world - in a fantasy world Hanley Ramirez would be our shortstop on opening day but the point is, within the context of what we have in hand and what might reasonably be done with it without going totally around the bend from reality
So, I'm going to take a pass on the pitching because there are just TOO many moving parts there. I'm not in a position to say whether McGowan comes back healthy, whether Morrow continues to improve his control, whether Zep looks better than Cecil in Spring or vice versa...almost any scenario there would be of interest to me. but on the hitting side, there's still a lot of players who don't enthuse me, so I can project a lot of potential moves.
Here's my ideal starting lineup and how I get there:
1. Damon - LF: last best hope for a competent lead-off hitter
2. Hill - 2B: needs to be hitting sixth, but no one else really fits here
3. Lind - 1B: Comfortable and no reason to move him down.
4. Delgado - DH: one sure way to keep Wells out of the spot
5. Wells - CF: maybe a bit less pressure? usually hits better when lower than #4
6. Snider - RF: run him out there and trust him
7. Encarnacion - 3B: natural place for him, hope he bounces back
8. Buck - c: no other place for him
9. Gonzalez - SS: he has to hit sometime, hiding him at nine is all you can do.
The thinking here is that while we all know Wells doesn't belong in CF, the jays are not ready to give up on that yet, plus, i am not sure that we lose more runs with Wells defending in CF than we do with Bautista as the full time lead off guy - it would be hard to believe. So Damon is the one remaining solution to the #1 spot.
I've dispatched Overbay, not because I hate him as many do, but because I'd rather have Delgado and because I hate being constrained to make up for Lyle's weakness vs LHP. I admit there are few options for dealing him - perhaps the marlins can prove they are not hording money by taking him on? Probably the biggest pipe dream here is that such a deal is out there.
Lind at 1B belies Anthopoulos' assertion that Wallace will be a 1B but even if it's only for one year (id Delgado is only here for one) Lind can muddle through and Wallace can get over-ripe in AAA. Alternately, you can take a bit longer to give up on him at 3B by playing him there in Vegas. If he succeeds as a 3B, then you can deal EE in July (if he's a success this year) or non-tender him in the fall (if he's mediocre) or outright ditch him (if he's bad) when you think Wallace is ready. If, on the other hand, you are committed to Wallace at 1B, there's still no reason that deals or injuries can't open a second-half door for him if need be. It wouldn't be be the WORST thing in the world if he was in AAA all year (in fact, that's what would happen if Overbay isn't dealt).
The money you save on Overbay, if you moved the whole deal, might very well pay for Damon and Delgado. If you had to include a reliever to Florida to get them to take Overbay, then so much the more balance for the costs.
What does all this mean in the real world? Not a damn thing really. Just wanted to have it written down.
Friday, 29 January 2010
Don't Toy With Me Alex
Some notes from all over:
Item - One of the things I had been quietly thinking to myself for weeks now is that Johnny Damon was quietly running out of open slots to sell his services to and the Jays still don't have a competent lead-off hitter. But I had assumed that between his agent (Boras), his price, the fact that he wants to be a Yankee so much he might cave and go back there for less, and our "building project" that it would be foolishness to hope he could land with the Jays.
But, according to Jordan Bastian (and others) tweeting from the State of the Franchise Dinner last night, the Jays have at least talked about it. the odds are still against it I suppose, but put me down in favor of it. In fact, I'd go so far as to say given that our system is a few years away from producing a viable candidate to lead off, if the organization is ready to commit to Snider in RF for at least 2-3 years, I'd not be opposed to a 2 or 3 year deal. But even if its only one year, the potential to trade him in July, or get two draft picks next winter, is a very nice incentive to give him a soft place to land now. That said, if the Ghost of Cito takes Snider out of the lineup for Damon, THAT is a horse of a exceedingly divergent hue.
Damon has a rep as a poor defender but as a flycatcher in LF he's just fine. Most of the advanced metrics have him above average in that regard. It's true he has a legendarily weak arm but are we REALLY giving up more net wins with the occasional weak throw from left than we'll give up with Jose Bautista leading off against RHP roughly 120 times in 2010? Hell no. And all yall who think if we sign him that Lind is a better option to play left? no. Just....no.
Of course, full disclosure - when Damon was available in the draft I wanted him on the Jays more than anyone else out there and I've always liked the guy since (rare for me to like anyone who plays for the Yankees much) so I do have a bit of an emotional attachment. Still, that aside, I think Damon is a nice fit here if he resigns himself to not getting a job on a contender.
Item - Another bit of news coming out of that Dinner was that Cito Gaston has a chubby for the idea of bringing back Carlos Delgado, but AA doesn't think he fits because he thinks (correctly) that Adam Lind needs to DH. Now, I feel REALLY bad for Carlos that there seems to be no obvious starting DH role for him in the AL, I think he still has a lot to offer. But he doesn't fit here. The biggest possible stretch is if we could pawn Overbay off on the Mets or somebody and let Lind play 1B this year and use Overbay's salary to pay both Damon and Delgado. But that's a heck of a lot of moving parts. which sucks, because Delgado closing out a great career here is a much better story that Randy Ruiz turning out to be gold after all this time, IMO.
Item - One other not worth mentioning from last night - Dustin McGowan is back on the mound. Well, technically he was back on the mound this morning throwing a bullpen session. Reports are he felt no pain and all went well and a couple of stray remarks indicate "he looks great." Obviously there is a LONG road ahead and hope to see him in the 2010 rotation is irrational but . . . I'm fantasizing on a big comeback just the same.
Item - AA suggested last night that he's been trying everything possible to bring in a top-shelf young SS and there's not one available.
Item - I won't bother to get into all the various quotes but listening to Cito talk last night about the upcoming year gives me more than a small portion of unease. He's all over the map and says a lot of stuff that...how can I put this nicely?. . . concerns me. If he's going to be an actual consultant and not a figure head, he might want to pay at least as much fucking attention to who's actually on the team as an unpaid blogger 500 miles away, donchathink?
Elsewhere . . .
Item - Keith Law has a top 10 prospect list out for the Jays (hat tip to the Drunks) as does FanGraphs Marc Hulet.
Law had four Jays in his Top 100 Prospects in baseball too, by the way. He had Brett Wallace at #20 (ahead of Michael Taylor if you still care about that) and says he's "ready right away." Also, he has Drabek at 40 (is worried about his delivery doesn't think he has an ace ceiling which puts him at odds with most other observers), Stewart at 55 ("has a chance to be a good #2 or a top shelf reliever"), and d'Arnoud at 99 (a "more complete player" than JPA). He also ranked the Jays' system #16 overall while noting in passing that the would have been at or near the bottom as of July 30.
Of further interest in his Top 10, Law has Henderson Alverez (who was my #1 guy before the Halladay deal) at #5, Moses Sierra at #9 and wunderkind SS Gustavo Pierre all the way up at #10.
Hulet (not one of the more famous names but few who are not employed by the Jays know the system better) also ranked Wallace #1, has Arencibia (at #4) ahead of d'Arnoud (#7) and has Sierra all the way up at #5, but what I found most striking was Brad Mills at #6 and Danny Farquhar at #10. Hulet, obviously since he's writing here for Fangraphs, loads you up on all the statistical goodness.
Item - It was noted last night the Jays are getting new turf. No way this can be anything but a cue to the Hallelujah Chorus.
Item - I mentioned this on Batters Box, rather than burn a whole post on the idea here, and so far it hasn't been shot down to my satisfaction: if we are picking over the guys who are shocked to find they are still free agents on February 1, I'd take a look at bringing in Felipe Lopez with plans to play him in RF (assuming we don't get Damon). the way I figure it, if Bautista can play RF, why can't Lopez? He's got an arm, he's not a slug, and he can actually hit RHP. it's true there career lines at the plate are not much different, but since he left Washington Lopez seems to have rediscovered his bat and if we MUST gamble in the lead-off spot, I'd much rather do so with a guy who's OPS was over .380 last year (and well over .350 in the 191 games since he left the Nats) than a guy who is a lock to look like John McDonald when a RHP is on the mound.
Item - Jason Stark suggests that the Jays have told clubs that both Frasor and Dwons are available, which makes sense given that this winter provided a cautionary tale about offering arbitration to Type A relievers. Reportedly the Cubs have inquired.
Item - via a re-tweeted tweet (damn I hate that word) I picked up a Jays blog I hadn't read before. It's called Tangled Up in Powder Blue and I don't want to be effusive in my praise, since it only has 14 new posts since the start of 2009, but hey - it is written by a female and it's good to see a member of the fairer sex blogging the Jays so I figure if I give her some notice maybe she'll weigh in more often. if she does, maybe I'll add her to the sidebar.
I'm sure I'm forgetting something I wanted to mention but this is getting too long anyway so enough with trying to remember it all.
Item - One of the things I had been quietly thinking to myself for weeks now is that Johnny Damon was quietly running out of open slots to sell his services to and the Jays still don't have a competent lead-off hitter. But I had assumed that between his agent (Boras), his price, the fact that he wants to be a Yankee so much he might cave and go back there for less, and our "building project" that it would be foolishness to hope he could land with the Jays.
But, according to Jordan Bastian (and others) tweeting from the State of the Franchise Dinner last night, the Jays have at least talked about it. the odds are still against it I suppose, but put me down in favor of it. In fact, I'd go so far as to say given that our system is a few years away from producing a viable candidate to lead off, if the organization is ready to commit to Snider in RF for at least 2-3 years, I'd not be opposed to a 2 or 3 year deal. But even if its only one year, the potential to trade him in July, or get two draft picks next winter, is a very nice incentive to give him a soft place to land now. That said, if the Ghost of Cito takes Snider out of the lineup for Damon, THAT is a horse of a exceedingly divergent hue.
Damon has a rep as a poor defender but as a flycatcher in LF he's just fine. Most of the advanced metrics have him above average in that regard. It's true he has a legendarily weak arm but are we REALLY giving up more net wins with the occasional weak throw from left than we'll give up with Jose Bautista leading off against RHP roughly 120 times in 2010? Hell no. And all yall who think if we sign him that Lind is a better option to play left? no. Just....no.
Of course, full disclosure - when Damon was available in the draft I wanted him on the Jays more than anyone else out there and I've always liked the guy since (rare for me to like anyone who plays for the Yankees much) so I do have a bit of an emotional attachment. Still, that aside, I think Damon is a nice fit here if he resigns himself to not getting a job on a contender.
Item - Another bit of news coming out of that Dinner was that Cito Gaston has a chubby for the idea of bringing back Carlos Delgado, but AA doesn't think he fits because he thinks (correctly) that Adam Lind needs to DH. Now, I feel REALLY bad for Carlos that there seems to be no obvious starting DH role for him in the AL, I think he still has a lot to offer. But he doesn't fit here. The biggest possible stretch is if we could pawn Overbay off on the Mets or somebody and let Lind play 1B this year and use Overbay's salary to pay both Damon and Delgado. But that's a heck of a lot of moving parts. which sucks, because Delgado closing out a great career here is a much better story that Randy Ruiz turning out to be gold after all this time, IMO.
Item - One other not worth mentioning from last night - Dustin McGowan is back on the mound. Well, technically he was back on the mound this morning throwing a bullpen session. Reports are he felt no pain and all went well and a couple of stray remarks indicate "he looks great." Obviously there is a LONG road ahead and hope to see him in the 2010 rotation is irrational but . . . I'm fantasizing on a big comeback just the same.
Item - AA suggested last night that he's been trying everything possible to bring in a top-shelf young SS and there's not one available.
Item - I won't bother to get into all the various quotes but listening to Cito talk last night about the upcoming year gives me more than a small portion of unease. He's all over the map and says a lot of stuff that...how can I put this nicely?. . . concerns me. If he's going to be an actual consultant and not a figure head, he might want to pay at least as much fucking attention to who's actually on the team as an unpaid blogger 500 miles away, donchathink?
Elsewhere . . .
Item - Keith Law has a top 10 prospect list out for the Jays (hat tip to the Drunks) as does FanGraphs Marc Hulet.
Law had four Jays in his Top 100 Prospects in baseball too, by the way. He had Brett Wallace at #20 (ahead of Michael Taylor if you still care about that) and says he's "ready right away." Also, he has Drabek at 40 (is worried about his delivery doesn't think he has an ace ceiling which puts him at odds with most other observers), Stewart at 55 ("has a chance to be a good #2 or a top shelf reliever"), and d'Arnoud at 99 (a "more complete player" than JPA). He also ranked the Jays' system #16 overall while noting in passing that the would have been at or near the bottom as of July 30.
Of further interest in his Top 10, Law has Henderson Alverez (who was my #1 guy before the Halladay deal) at #5, Moses Sierra at #9 and wunderkind SS Gustavo Pierre all the way up at #10.
Hulet (not one of the more famous names but few who are not employed by the Jays know the system better) also ranked Wallace #1, has Arencibia (at #4) ahead of d'Arnoud (#7) and has Sierra all the way up at #5, but what I found most striking was Brad Mills at #6 and Danny Farquhar at #10. Hulet, obviously since he's writing here for Fangraphs, loads you up on all the statistical goodness.
Item - It was noted last night the Jays are getting new turf. No way this can be anything but a cue to the Hallelujah Chorus.
Item - I mentioned this on Batters Box, rather than burn a whole post on the idea here, and so far it hasn't been shot down to my satisfaction: if we are picking over the guys who are shocked to find they are still free agents on February 1, I'd take a look at bringing in Felipe Lopez with plans to play him in RF (assuming we don't get Damon). the way I figure it, if Bautista can play RF, why can't Lopez? He's got an arm, he's not a slug, and he can actually hit RHP. it's true there career lines at the plate are not much different, but since he left Washington Lopez seems to have rediscovered his bat and if we MUST gamble in the lead-off spot, I'd much rather do so with a guy who's OPS was over .380 last year (and well over .350 in the 191 games since he left the Nats) than a guy who is a lock to look like John McDonald when a RHP is on the mound.
Item - Jason Stark suggests that the Jays have told clubs that both Frasor and Dwons are available, which makes sense given that this winter provided a cautionary tale about offering arbitration to Type A relievers. Reportedly the Cubs have inquired.
Item - via a re-tweeted tweet (damn I hate that word) I picked up a Jays blog I hadn't read before. It's called Tangled Up in Powder Blue and I don't want to be effusive in my praise, since it only has 14 new posts since the start of 2009, but hey - it is written by a female and it's good to see a member of the fairer sex blogging the Jays so I figure if I give her some notice maybe she'll weigh in more often. if she does, maybe I'll add her to the sidebar.
I'm sure I'm forgetting something I wanted to mention but this is getting too long anyway so enough with trying to remember it all.
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
M.S.U. - #2 Edmunds!
Gonna try to be really brief here.
Here's what we know:
1. Jays are at least considering playing Jose Bautista in RF and leading him off in 2010;
2. Jose Bautista is extraordinarily suckish vs. RHP;
3. Cito seems to have no problem sending out suckinsh players in his lineup;
4. Cito loves veteran players;
5. Even as he was winding down, Jim Edmunds still raked vs. RHP.
6. Edmunds says he wants to play in 2010 and expects to sign within the next week or so. Now, to be clear, Edmunds doesn't fit the plan, he'd be only a stopgap. And he's been off a year so you would HAVE to think that he's only good for a minor league contract and a chance to make the team. In addition, while he tends to have a high OBP v. RH, he's not your traditional lead-off guy and you have to accept that and he has to accept that role. but IF AA doesn't have some ace-in-the-hole to solve that RF/lead-off problem, in my opinion the Jays could do a lot worse than tossing a million or so at Edmunds (on a make good basis) - one of the ways they could do worse is play Bautista every day.
----------------
On another note, the Jays acquired one time hot prospect Merkin Valdez from the Giants today for cash. Valdez missed almost two years with TJ surgery and 2009 was his first year back. In the low minors Valdez missed a lot of bats and reached AAA by the age of 23. Hew wasn't quite as dominant that year but he still had a lot of promise to be doing well in the PCL at 23. Up to that point he had been a starter. Since coming back from injury he pitched in the Giant's pen but SF is not short of quality options for the rotation.
If Valdez can get his control back (for a hard thrower, that tends to be a problem the first year after surgery) the Jays might have picked up a relatively valuable chip here - albeit there are way more candidates than jobs for pitchers in Toronto as well.
IN fact, if you count every reasonably potential candidate to pitch in either Toronto or Las Vegas, it totals up to a startling THIRTY pitchers - and that's without counting Mcgowan and Litsch. Alex A was on the Fan today and he mentioned that he still had his ear to the ground to add more pitching if it was "the right guy at the right price" but some of these dudes are gonna have to walk in march.
Here's how it breaks down (locks or near locks bolded):
Possibilities for the major league rotation - Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Rzep, McGowan, Richmond, Tallet, Purcey, Cecil, Mills, Ray, Valdez, Jackson
Possibilities for the major league 'pen - Frasor, Downs, Carlson, Accardo, Tallet, Richmond, Janssen, Roenicke, Zinicola, Valdez, Hayhurst, Ray, Jackson
Possibilities for the AAA Rotation (doesn't included any bolded player above) - Mills, Ray, Purcey*, Stewart, Valdez, Jackson, Broadway, Drabek, Perez, Gonzalez
Possibilities for the AAA bullpen - Janssen, Roenicke, Zinicola**, Valdez*, Hayhurst*, Jackson, Broadway, Boone, D. Romero, Register, Henn, Stidfole
That's a lot of guys looking for innings already.
* - possibly or probably out of options
** - Zinicola can't be sent down unless we give the Nats some sort of compensation for the right to.
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Finally, looking back at the payroll projection - Brian Tallet blew my projected total a bit. I was within 1/4 million on every other guess. The total of all the arbitration eligible guys ended up being $8.43 million. A reader reminded me we owe $1.6 million to the Reds on Rolen (which may have already been paid but we'll note it) so right now the total projected salary for 2010 is right at $63 million on roster and just a bit over $80 million including off-roster payments.
Here's what we know:
1. Jays are at least considering playing Jose Bautista in RF and leading him off in 2010;
2. Jose Bautista is extraordinarily suckish vs. RHP;
3. Cito seems to have no problem sending out suckinsh players in his lineup;
4. Cito loves veteran players;
5. Even as he was winding down, Jim Edmunds still raked vs. RHP.
6. Edmunds says he wants to play in 2010 and expects to sign within the next week or so. Now, to be clear, Edmunds doesn't fit the plan, he'd be only a stopgap. And he's been off a year so you would HAVE to think that he's only good for a minor league contract and a chance to make the team. In addition, while he tends to have a high OBP v. RH, he's not your traditional lead-off guy and you have to accept that and he has to accept that role. but IF AA doesn't have some ace-in-the-hole to solve that RF/lead-off problem, in my opinion the Jays could do a lot worse than tossing a million or so at Edmunds (on a make good basis) - one of the ways they could do worse is play Bautista every day.
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On another note, the Jays acquired one time hot prospect Merkin Valdez from the Giants today for cash. Valdez missed almost two years with TJ surgery and 2009 was his first year back. In the low minors Valdez missed a lot of bats and reached AAA by the age of 23. Hew wasn't quite as dominant that year but he still had a lot of promise to be doing well in the PCL at 23. Up to that point he had been a starter. Since coming back from injury he pitched in the Giant's pen but SF is not short of quality options for the rotation.
If Valdez can get his control back (for a hard thrower, that tends to be a problem the first year after surgery) the Jays might have picked up a relatively valuable chip here - albeit there are way more candidates than jobs for pitchers in Toronto as well.
IN fact, if you count every reasonably potential candidate to pitch in either Toronto or Las Vegas, it totals up to a startling THIRTY pitchers - and that's without counting Mcgowan and Litsch. Alex A was on the Fan today and he mentioned that he still had his ear to the ground to add more pitching if it was "the right guy at the right price" but some of these dudes are gonna have to walk in march.
Here's how it breaks down (locks or near locks bolded):
Possibilities for the major league rotation - Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Rzep, McGowan, Richmond, Tallet, Purcey, Cecil, Mills, Ray, Valdez, Jackson
Possibilities for the major league 'pen - Frasor, Downs, Carlson, Accardo, Tallet, Richmond, Janssen, Roenicke, Zinicola, Valdez, Hayhurst, Ray, Jackson
Possibilities for the AAA Rotation (doesn't included any bolded player above) - Mills, Ray, Purcey*, Stewart, Valdez, Jackson, Broadway, Drabek, Perez, Gonzalez
Possibilities for the AAA bullpen - Janssen, Roenicke, Zinicola**, Valdez*, Hayhurst*, Jackson, Broadway, Boone, D. Romero, Register, Henn, Stidfole
That's a lot of guys looking for innings already.
* - possibly or probably out of options
** - Zinicola can't be sent down unless we give the Nats some sort of compensation for the right to.
-----------------------
Finally, looking back at the payroll projection - Brian Tallet blew my projected total a bit. I was within 1/4 million on every other guess. The total of all the arbitration eligible guys ended up being $8.43 million. A reader reminded me we owe $1.6 million to the Reds on Rolen (which may have already been paid but we'll note it) so right now the total projected salary for 2010 is right at $63 million on roster and just a bit over $80 million including off-roster payments.
Friday, 15 January 2010
Dollar Daze
I have been doing one of these payroll review things every year for a while now. I see so much misinformation tossed about most of the time about what is committed and what is available that I like to at least put one voice out there who's saying something reliable.In the past, I've done this ahead of the arbitration deals in order to test myself on how well I do those projections. last year I was very very close (I think under $200K off on the total spent on all arbitration eligible players) but of course, doing so means there will have to be an update later.
Also, since AA will surely still be making deals right up to and even into Spring Training, this is surely only a "snapshot."
All that said, I won't be able to say much this year about how much might be left to spend because the Jays simply no longer make us fans privy to the information regarding how much they want to spend. They might be at their budget or they might have $10 million in the hole waiting for a bargain - we simply can't know.
We'll begin with this reality: there's $16 million already committed to players no longer with the team. We'll be paying BJ Ryan $10 million not to play baseball, and we sent $6 million to Philadelphia with Doc. Whether or not WE consider that "payroll," Major League Baseball does so that counts as far as the league is concerned. But it is possible that Rogers considers that "sunk cost" and thus, we have some flexibility there that the total doesn't reflect - again, we simply can't know.
Breaking down the projected roster, and using Cott's Contracts (see the sidebar) as the reference of choice, we see these players who are under contract:
Vernon Wells - $21 million ($12.5 in payroll, $8.5 as a payment on the signing bonus)
Lyle Overbay - $7 million
Edwin Encarnacion - $4.75 million
Scott Downs - $4 million
Aaron Hill - $4 mil
Alex Gonzalez - $2.75 mil
Jose Bautista - $2.4 mil
John Buck - $2 mil
John McDonald - $1.5 mil
Dustin McGowan - $500k
Total = $49.9 million
The following players are arbitration eligible. They are listed with last year's salary in parenthesis and my projection for 2010 (I'm assuming here they all settle, I will refrain from guessing who'd win if they went to an actual arbitration decision):
Jason Frasor ($1.45) $2.4 mil
Brian Tallet (1.o15) $1.6 mil
Jeremy Accardo ($900k) $1.2 mil
Shawn Camp ($750k) $900k
Shaun Marcum ($405,200) $750k
Casey Janssen ($413, 900) $650k
Total = $7.6 million
Now, if we assume all those players are on the 25 man roster then there are nine remaining spots.
Lind will definitely occupy one, and I'm going to assume Snider will have one and that Chavez will serve as the reserve catcher. That leaves two potential spots for hitters, and for now we'll give one of those to Ruiz and leave the other one hanging for a bit.
That leaves spots for three more starting pitchers, and the other spot goes to Jesse Carlson who will surely make the team. (yes I know I'm presuming too much on health particularly in the case of McGowan but bear with me)
SO-
Half a mil on Chavez (about what he made last year);
Lind, Snider, Ruiz, Carlson, Romero, Zep, and Morrow all making slightly more than the minimum - We'll round this up a bit to an ever $3 million;
That's a total of $3.5 million with one unfilled slot, which might be an eighth reliever, but logically should be another bench player (which we'll plug in Gathright as a placeholder even though I think there's an acquisition pending) but however you juggle it we're sitting at just about $4 million to fill out the roster.
In addition, Jesse Litsch will collect a major league salary while sitting on the DL and if you assume McGowan won't be able to make it onto the field you can add another minimum wage guy (Cecil for instance) in his place so we'll toss in one more million for a sub-total here of $5 million.
So, grand total for the 25 man roster: ~$62.5 million. You can quibble a bit with the arbitration guesses but I'll wager I'm within +/- $500k on the total.
As I said, I'm assuming that there's the potential for one additional hitter (at least) - especially if Cito is serious about Bautista in RF and leading off (since I can't believe we're going to not platoon him if that's going to be his job) but if that were the case, then Lind would be the DH and that puts Ruiz in question. Still, however it plays out I allowed for a yet unidentified player in that budget.
Also, there is still the possibility that Lyle Overbay or possible one of the relievers is dealt albeit I don't really see much of a market. If AA manages to shed Overbay's whole salary before the season starts it might well be his slickest move yet. there's just not a lot of openings for a 1B. So Lyle might be here until July at least.
Finally, we remember the $16 million I mentioned at the start and the total outlay is just a bit under $80 million, which is roughly $1 million less than Cott's total for 2009.
Unless we have an unusually fortunate opportunity, my guess is that this figure isn't going up much for 2010.
And it might go down some more yet.
Saturday, 2 January 2010
What's Aroldis Chapman worth to the Jays?
Or to any team, for that matter.Perhaps more than you think.
first, let me be clear - I predicate my thoughts here on the concept that Chapman is in fact worthy of the praise he draws in some circles.
Chapman, a 22 year old, 6'4" left-hander, is the possessor of one of those arms Crash Davis referred to as "touched by the gods" capable of touching, by some reports, over 102 MPH on the radar gun. But his secondary pitches are said to be raw (he has at least a slider and a change-up since he's thrown those in workouts for major league scouts) and the expectation is that he'll need some time in the minors to refine his abilities. Still, many scouts consider him the best left-handed prospect in the world.
He's also said to be a bit of an egomaniac who might present maturity and behavioral issues. The team who signs him would have to be both confident they could refine his abilities (which should be the Jays' forte) and also confident they can develop him as a person into the sort of player, teammate and clubhouse presence that matches his abilities.
I have no way of knowing the answer to these questions so I say what I am about to say concerning contractual value based on the theoretical possibility that the Blue Jays can be confident on both counts. Let's further stipulate for the purpose of this discussion, that the Jays do indeed have this kind of money, per Beeston's constant claims. Otherwise this is a futile exercise.
Chapman has reportedly already declined a $15 million offer from the Red Sox. That's hardly surprising since the current holder of the Cuban defector record for a contract is Jose Contrares who signed a four year, $32 million contract with the Yankees way back in 2003. To assume that Chapaman would want to at least get into that neighborhood is pretty much a given.
So let us say, for the purpose of discussion, that it takes $30 million to sign Chapman for five years. It might take more because that's still a smaller Average Annual Value than Contrares got. But we have to have some sort of working figure.
First, you need some basis for comparison. Since Contrares is so far back, and since he changed teams a couple of times, I've chosen another, more current (and obvious) comparison - recently signed mega-prospect Stephen Strasburg.
Now, the comparison is imperfect because Strasburg wasn't an unrestricted free agent. on the other hand, most reports suggest he's better than Chapman so that will hopefully balance things out enough to make the comparison reasonable. There's really no one else that makes an ideal comparison because of other factors (for instance, Dice-K being a major-league-ready veteran makes him a poor comparison).
Strasburg's four year, $15.1 million deal pays him a $7.5 million signing bonus, and and salaries of $400K in 2009 (pro-rated), $2, $2.5, and $3 million in the following years. If Strasburg broke camp with the Nats, he'd be arbitration eligible at the end of the contract. He possibly won't do that but for the sake of this comparison I'll assume that happens. Note that this is an AAV of almost $3.8 million.
You have to start with that deal, because there's always a premium for free agency that doesn't apply to draft picks. Then you consider that you have to pay Chapman for what might well be two seasons in the minors. So assume you are looking at a five-year deal. Assuming an AAV of $4 million over 5 years, that's $20 million.
So, it seems to me that if you want to even talk about Chapman, $20 million over five years is where you START. It's the price of admission to the discussion. If you REALLY think he's a #1 pick talent, and that you can develop him as described above, then that is a no-brainer decision if you are among the teams who have the money.
Now, the question before the house is - how far north of $20 million can you or do you go?
Here's how I answer that question: The premium you pay over and above the figure he's worth absent free agency (as if he were the #1 pick like Strasburg) is the premium you pay for the rights to that mythological #1 pick - for the right to try to develop him. And if you succeed, then you get six years of major league service for your investment.
So then, you ask yourself, for instance, "Is it worth an extra $2 million a year on top of what he 'should' cost to add that kind of talent to my team?"
If so, that's $12 million more total you are willing to spend on Chapman. At the point where you say "is it worth it?" and the answer is "no" - that's where you get out of the bidding.
So what we have before us is a Jays team which is already committed to investing money now for a payoff 3-4 years hence (in a number of different player procurement and development investments) and also a team which has reduced it's major league payroll commitment several million dollars (and likely there's still another couple of deals to come which will save a good deal more) so they are in a unique position to redirect money if they think the cause is worthy.
In such a situation, the Jays are certainly going to "pay forward" a lot of money to make future teams better. The only question is how much and on what. If we assume Chapman is in fact a potential #1 ace starter and will have a good chance of reaching that potential, then that's an asset the Jays (or any team) will under normal circumstance find almost impossible to acquire by other means, short of landing a top five draft pick. So "on what?" will seldom have a better answer than "on a potential Ace pitcher."
"How much?" then, becomes the operative question.
I propose that if you consider that you are giving Chapman something similar to Strasburg's deal - 1.e. $20 million over five years - and then "paying forward" an amount in addition to that necessary to secure six years of major league service from a pitcher of that quality. then you evaluate what those six years are worth to you on average. That amount is what you pay now in order to have him on your team then. if that's $2 million a season then be willing to go to $32 in all to sign him, if it's $3 million then be willing to go to $38 million - you get the picture.
The Jays have the ability to give the guy something like $12 million as a signing bonus out of the money they have saved or will save this year. Then what you have left is a #1 pick contract with an AAV of $4 million a year, which is perfectly in line with other comparable highly regarded prospects. At the risk of re-repeating myself, you look at the $12 million as money you spend now, in a rebuilding year, in order to improve your chances during the 2012-2018 window.
I'd argue that is money well spent, and a wise way to take advantage of the peculiarities of the Jays current situation money wise.
IF you believe you can develop Chapman into That Guy.
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