As reported, basically, everywhere by now. the Blue Jays had some interesting news out of camp today. The starting lineup is not going to be what we were led to believe all spring.
Eddie E is back to starting at 3B, Joey Bats goes back to his preferred RF, and Juan Rivera becomes the principle DH.
Some have been sloppily referring to this as "all year" but at least on reporter (either Gregor or John Lott) tweeted that this will not affect Brett Lawrie's potential call up, so it very well might not be all year. But apparently the current plan is that Bautista is in RF for good.
Now, before you panic about EE's defense, the reports are that the Jays believe he's seriously upgraded his defense, particularly in regards to increased mobility having lost considerable weight over the off-season.
Another inference here, not stated by the team but logical, is that the whispers that Rivera isn't much to write home about as a right fielder are likely true. You might also gather that the Jays are satisfied with Lind's defense at 1B given that one would assume they won't be flipping a guy with borderline defense back and forth from one corner to the other.
I'll go against what I presume to be the likely trend and say that I like the move. Encarnacion's value as a player asset can only go up if he can indeed demonstrate capable defense, when you consider you are taking one marginal defender off the field for another, there's less negative impact, and there's a sense in which having Bautista where you want him from day one probably works well.
the one downside I see is that it might have been valuable to have the unpredictable latin SS flanked by the most mature and leaderly Latin on the team.
When there are in-depth reports on this with quotes from the decision makers, i'll come back and add the links.
Update:
See what happens? I wait until four days until opening day to write a "this is your opening day roster" post, and the Jays promptly go out and start maneuvering like mad the day after. Now comes word that the jays will indeed send Corey Patterson to the DL and that they have picked up Jayson Nix from the Indians for "cash considerations" with Nix presumably now at the front of the line to get the last bench spot. Nix has moderate power and a touch of speed but can't put the bat on the ball much at all.
Don't get too used to him, there are a lot of marginal guys hitting the waiver wire this week and he could be replaced before he get's his bags unpacked (Gregor Blanco, for instance, is on waivers).
Getting back to the bigger story, Mike Wilner notes here that the move certainly has the feel of the first part of a two-step process - that the Jays might be working on a deal for an as-yet unknown player (presumably better than Nix). He also opines that it could also be a matter of deep disillusionment with Rivera's defense.
John Lott's story found here portrays the Blue Jays managment team as building their case around EE's improved defense. Of course there's no real chance they would be caught on the record trashing Rivera's range.
Of course, there's a glut of blog reaction but that's not hard to find. I'm holding my breath to see what happens once I post THIS.
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Sunday, 27 March 2011
The 25
Or, well, actually The 30 - counting those who will spend opening day on the DL.
I reference, of course, today's roster cuts which leave only two players in the major league camp that won't be on the Opening Day roster or the DL next Friday (baring an unforeseen development of course). With these cuts - David Cooper, Eric Thames, and a handful of unimportant relief filler - we can now surmise what the Opening Day squad looks like.
Starting pitchers (listed in order of appearance):
Ricky Romero
Kyle Drabek
Brett Cecil
JoJo Reyes
Jesse Litsch
Bullpen:
Jon Rauch
Jason Frasor
Marc Rzepczyinski
Shawn Camp
Casey Janssen
David Purcey
Carlos Villianueva
Lineup (projected):
1. Raji Davis - CF
2. Yunel Escobar - SS
3. Jose Bautista - 3B
4. Adam Lind - 1B
5. Aaron Hill - 2B
6. Travis Snider - LF
7. Edwin Encarnacion - DH
8. Juan Rivera - RF
9. JP Arencibia - C
Bench:
Jose Molina, John McDonald, Corey Patterson, Mike McCoy
DL:
Brandon Morrow - likely to miss only one start, will bump either Drabek or Reyes from the rotation. My guess is Drabek for logistical reasons.
Frank Francisco - no idea how long it will take him to be up to speed. Not a LONG time as far as we know now, just an uncertain period.
Octavio Dotel - Likely activated as soon as he's eligible. The guy most vulnerable to demotion is Villianueva, who had an excellent spring but has options. Yo, Carlos - Jeremy Accardo can commiserate.
Dustin McGowan - no setbacks lately, road back is a LONG one though. He'll create a fascinating roster-crowding situation if/when he makes it back if no one is injured in the meantime.
Jesse Carlson - Uncertain shoulder issues, likely optioned to AAA when healthy.
If you are wondering, both Scott Podsednick and Chad Cordero are on minor league contracts. Cordero will open the season either on the DL or on the Vegas roster and Podsednick is not ready for game action yet. The other two players in the major league camp who are yet to be optioned out - but will be - are Jon Diaz, who seems to have really caught the eye of the Jays as a John McDonald type, and catcher Ryan Budde who's a minor-league journeyman destined to back-up Brian Jeroloman this year.
So, what have meaningless spring numbers taught us? Well, nothing obviously beyond health, but here are some of my impressions:
*Jesse Litsch is a swell guy who's never been real high on my list simply because I saw him as a guy who had maybe the 6th or 7th best stuff among the potential rotation candidates. But you have to tip your cap to him, among the starters only Brandon Morrow had a better spring. his 17:3 ratio in 17 spring innings (which leads the team) is very hard to ignore.
*Morrow did nothing to disabuse me of my prediction that he'll be among the very best in the AL this year. One earned run, complimented by 16K and only 3 BB in 12 IP will do that.
*I was not impressed when the Jays acquired Carlos Villianueva and considered him a shuttle rider, but you have to acknowledge he did everything he could to make the team. That said, Casey Janssen was right there with him. David Purcey, on the other hand, is in danger of playing himself off the team if he doesn't find the strike zone again. His ERA is fine but a walk per inning pitched simply won't do.
*All the veteran guys who make you ask "will he bounce back?" have, at this point, very good spring numbers, except Aaron Hill who hasn't the at bats for me to comment (reportedly he looked quite good today). Raji Davis, YEscobar, and Lind have much to brag about, as does Travis Snider. The counterpoint being that John McDonald is hitting .333 - so there ya go.
*JPA and Encarnacion have less than rosy averages, although EE has shown good power, but John Farrell insists he's impressed with both of them. in fact, if you listen to Farrell it's hard not to be excited about virtually everyone on the team.
*Speaking of Farrell (whom the Tao shows some love too here in a piece I completely agree with), one of the things that has most excited me this spring is the constant praise for the teams coaching staff. Not just Farrell, whom I've quietly come to adore, but Bruce Walton, Don Wakamatsu, and the ever beloved Brian Butterfield have come in for a lot of excellent clippings.
*The kids are alright. one of the ways John Farrell found his way into my heart was his lavish praise for some of my favorite prospects. Brett Lawrie, Anthony Gose, Henderson Alvarez, Travis d'Arnaud, and Eric Thames have all been the recipiant of the Manager's superlatives. Other prospects that have, for one reason or another, seemingly advanced their cause with the organization are David Cooper, the aforementioned Diaz, and possibly John Tolisano.
Let us note that the most important week of the spring is the one coming up. This is when the "A" line-ups are playing most of every game and players are more focused on production rather than, say, refining a pitch. But, laying aside unwarranted excitement over inflated stats, there's a lot here to be excited about.
I can't resist here a somewhat off-topic glance at Vegas and the rest of the farm. With Zach Stewart leading (for now) a much improved rotation, and at least six hitters you can expect to do well, along with the rebirth (hopefully) of Chad Cordero's career the 51's should be much more fun than last year.
Likewise, the Fisher Cats should make some noise. The offense stands to be very good, with d'Arnaud, Gose, Hechevarria, Sierra, and McDade worth your notice. The rotation, which I'd once thought might be a weakness looks more interesting if, as has been recently hinted at, Henderson Alvarez breaks camp in AA. Eventually Chad Jenkins will probably join him.
Dunedin might be a bit of a valley until some of the younger guys move up, but there are players to pay attention to, such as Jenkins and eventually McGuire, along with Antonio Jimenez and the last realistic chance for Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson (who'll get a lot of time in the outfield according to reports) to revive their chances.
Lansing looks to be loaded enough for a whole separate column.
I can't wait!
I reference, of course, today's roster cuts which leave only two players in the major league camp that won't be on the Opening Day roster or the DL next Friday (baring an unforeseen development of course). With these cuts - David Cooper, Eric Thames, and a handful of unimportant relief filler - we can now surmise what the Opening Day squad looks like.
Starting pitchers (listed in order of appearance):
Ricky Romero
Kyle Drabek
Brett Cecil
JoJo Reyes
Jesse Litsch
Bullpen:
Jon Rauch
Jason Frasor
Marc Rzepczyinski
Shawn Camp
Casey Janssen
David Purcey
Carlos Villianueva
Lineup (projected):
1. Raji Davis - CF
2. Yunel Escobar - SS
3. Jose Bautista - 3B
4. Adam Lind - 1B
5. Aaron Hill - 2B
6. Travis Snider - LF
7. Edwin Encarnacion - DH
8. Juan Rivera - RF
9. JP Arencibia - C
Bench:
Jose Molina, John McDonald, Corey Patterson, Mike McCoy
DL:
Brandon Morrow - likely to miss only one start, will bump either Drabek or Reyes from the rotation. My guess is Drabek for logistical reasons.
Frank Francisco - no idea how long it will take him to be up to speed. Not a LONG time as far as we know now, just an uncertain period.
Octavio Dotel - Likely activated as soon as he's eligible. The guy most vulnerable to demotion is Villianueva, who had an excellent spring but has options. Yo, Carlos - Jeremy Accardo can commiserate.
Dustin McGowan - no setbacks lately, road back is a LONG one though. He'll create a fascinating roster-crowding situation if/when he makes it back if no one is injured in the meantime.
Jesse Carlson - Uncertain shoulder issues, likely optioned to AAA when healthy.
If you are wondering, both Scott Podsednick and Chad Cordero are on minor league contracts. Cordero will open the season either on the DL or on the Vegas roster and Podsednick is not ready for game action yet. The other two players in the major league camp who are yet to be optioned out - but will be - are Jon Diaz, who seems to have really caught the eye of the Jays as a John McDonald type, and catcher Ryan Budde who's a minor-league journeyman destined to back-up Brian Jeroloman this year.
So, what have meaningless spring numbers taught us? Well, nothing obviously beyond health, but here are some of my impressions:
*Jesse Litsch is a swell guy who's never been real high on my list simply because I saw him as a guy who had maybe the 6th or 7th best stuff among the potential rotation candidates. But you have to tip your cap to him, among the starters only Brandon Morrow had a better spring. his 17:3 ratio in 17 spring innings (which leads the team) is very hard to ignore.
*Morrow did nothing to disabuse me of my prediction that he'll be among the very best in the AL this year. One earned run, complimented by 16K and only 3 BB in 12 IP will do that.
*I was not impressed when the Jays acquired Carlos Villianueva and considered him a shuttle rider, but you have to acknowledge he did everything he could to make the team. That said, Casey Janssen was right there with him. David Purcey, on the other hand, is in danger of playing himself off the team if he doesn't find the strike zone again. His ERA is fine but a walk per inning pitched simply won't do.
*All the veteran guys who make you ask "will he bounce back?" have, at this point, very good spring numbers, except Aaron Hill who hasn't the at bats for me to comment (reportedly he looked quite good today). Raji Davis, YEscobar, and Lind have much to brag about, as does Travis Snider. The counterpoint being that John McDonald is hitting .333 - so there ya go.
*JPA and Encarnacion have less than rosy averages, although EE has shown good power, but John Farrell insists he's impressed with both of them. in fact, if you listen to Farrell it's hard not to be excited about virtually everyone on the team.
*Speaking of Farrell (whom the Tao shows some love too here in a piece I completely agree with), one of the things that has most excited me this spring is the constant praise for the teams coaching staff. Not just Farrell, whom I've quietly come to adore, but Bruce Walton, Don Wakamatsu, and the ever beloved Brian Butterfield have come in for a lot of excellent clippings.
*The kids are alright. one of the ways John Farrell found his way into my heart was his lavish praise for some of my favorite prospects. Brett Lawrie, Anthony Gose, Henderson Alvarez, Travis d'Arnaud, and Eric Thames have all been the recipiant of the Manager's superlatives. Other prospects that have, for one reason or another, seemingly advanced their cause with the organization are David Cooper, the aforementioned Diaz, and possibly John Tolisano.
Let us note that the most important week of the spring is the one coming up. This is when the "A" line-ups are playing most of every game and players are more focused on production rather than, say, refining a pitch. But, laying aside unwarranted excitement over inflated stats, there's a lot here to be excited about.
I can't resist here a somewhat off-topic glance at Vegas and the rest of the farm. With Zach Stewart leading (for now) a much improved rotation, and at least six hitters you can expect to do well, along with the rebirth (hopefully) of Chad Cordero's career the 51's should be much more fun than last year.
Likewise, the Fisher Cats should make some noise. The offense stands to be very good, with d'Arnaud, Gose, Hechevarria, Sierra, and McDade worth your notice. The rotation, which I'd once thought might be a weakness looks more interesting if, as has been recently hinted at, Henderson Alvarez breaks camp in AA. Eventually Chad Jenkins will probably join him.
Dunedin might be a bit of a valley until some of the younger guys move up, but there are players to pay attention to, such as Jenkins and eventually McGuire, along with Antonio Jimenez and the last realistic chance for Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson (who'll get a lot of time in the outfield according to reports) to revive their chances.
Lansing looks to be loaded enough for a whole separate column.
I can't wait!
Thursday, 24 March 2011
The Final Countdown
With under 10 days to go until opening night, and frankly at a loss for any new content without simply repeating the "this guy is hurt and that guy isn't" news of the day that you can get 20 other places, it seems a good idea to review the 25 Questions and see what we've learned.
1. With the announcement that Morrow will begin with a short stint on the DL, this question is settled in the very short term but still up in the air as you look to the balance of the season. I'm still harboring a hunch that the Jas will be impressed enough with Reyes that they will go ahead and fram Drabek out for 4-6 weeks and see how he does. He will be back though, one way or another. Barring a lot of injury no one else from the minors should be hopeful for a start in Toronto before September.
2. With Francisco on the DL, you have Jon Rauch closing, supported by RHP Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Casey Janssen, and LHP Marc Rzepczyinski (yes, I'm calling it - he's in) and the last two spots depend on Dotel's hamstring. If he's healthy he's got one of them and the last one is between Carlos Villianueva and David Purcey, the later of which is out of options (and left handed) but who has had a pretty rough spring while Villianueva has cruised. Obviously if Dotel can go both make it. I still think the jays will be loath to lose Purcey on waivers and are unlikely to try getting him through. But he is going to have to get back to his 2010 performance level.
3. Lawrie was farmed out today, but comments from John Farrell give us reason to think he'll be back pretty soon. My gut still tells me sometime in June.
4. Still no answer to "Why?" unless it's because they are convinced lawrie will make the point moot soon. but it's very firm that he's not playing anything but LF this year.
5. Just now beginning to play at something near full speed - impossible to gues how much it will affect his hitting.
6. YES! (Okay, I don't really know this but, yeah, I'm calling it)
7. YEscobar has had a heck of a spring at the plate (albeit also with an occasional bout of Riositis on the basepaths and in the field) - I think he'll carry that over.
8. Both are still holding up - Cordero pitched in an "A" game and might be ready by the nd of a rehab asignment (which, IIRC, can't last more than 30 days); McGowan has had no setbacks but is probably, even if all goes well, looking at maybe mid-season.
9. I think there will be a steady trckle of moving guys out as other teams see what they need, but early season trading is always a slow game so you might not see significant moves until June if he doesn't shead a player or two in the next week or so.
10. Have not heard a single word about Campbell this spring. Emaus seems to have all but won the Mets' 2B job (albeit from lack of serious competition).
11. Thames slacked off some as he faced more and more legit major league pitchers but i still think he'll be a beast at AAA.
12. Lowe came over from the minor league camp for a game or two, and got a feature write up in a Toronto paper for his effort, but it's still unclear that the organization has big plans for him.
13. I'e seen or heard nothing to change my remark here.
14. Possibly not. If Drabek sticks in the major league rotation and Zep in the pen, that would ruin the rotation I had been imagining.
15. There were no poor health reports on d'Arnaud in ST, and John Farrell gushed about him.
16. I've heard nothing negative about Sierra.
17. Given the slow and careful approach the team is still exhibiting, I'd be very surprised to see Adeiny promoted before August at the earliest.
18. AA says that Gose will open the year in New Hampshire.
19. Tolisano is still playing a lot of games with the major league squad, and apparently the team is pretty impressed. Jackson has apparently, been assigned to learn CF this year. I've no specific news on Ahrens.
20. nothing new to add here.
21. He was one of the select players that came in for the hot prospect mini-camp but all the news has been about players who played in the major league camp and Sanchez wasn't in that group.
22. Another young player that Farrell drooled over (along with Gose, d'Arnaud, and Lawrie) - he made an impression
23. Obviously too early to tell on this.
24. Nothing came out of camp to suggest the team is wild about him. We'll see.
25. Apparently the Royals have an urge to carry Collins north when they break camp in their major league pen.
1. With the announcement that Morrow will begin with a short stint on the DL, this question is settled in the very short term but still up in the air as you look to the balance of the season. I'm still harboring a hunch that the Jas will be impressed enough with Reyes that they will go ahead and fram Drabek out for 4-6 weeks and see how he does. He will be back though, one way or another. Barring a lot of injury no one else from the minors should be hopeful for a start in Toronto before September.
2. With Francisco on the DL, you have Jon Rauch closing, supported by RHP Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Casey Janssen, and LHP Marc Rzepczyinski (yes, I'm calling it - he's in) and the last two spots depend on Dotel's hamstring. If he's healthy he's got one of them and the last one is between Carlos Villianueva and David Purcey, the later of which is out of options (and left handed) but who has had a pretty rough spring while Villianueva has cruised. Obviously if Dotel can go both make it. I still think the jays will be loath to lose Purcey on waivers and are unlikely to try getting him through. But he is going to have to get back to his 2010 performance level.
3. Lawrie was farmed out today, but comments from John Farrell give us reason to think he'll be back pretty soon. My gut still tells me sometime in June.
4. Still no answer to "Why?" unless it's because they are convinced lawrie will make the point moot soon. but it's very firm that he's not playing anything but LF this year.
5. Just now beginning to play at something near full speed - impossible to gues how much it will affect his hitting.
6. YES! (Okay, I don't really know this but, yeah, I'm calling it)
7. YEscobar has had a heck of a spring at the plate (albeit also with an occasional bout of Riositis on the basepaths and in the field) - I think he'll carry that over.
8. Both are still holding up - Cordero pitched in an "A" game and might be ready by the nd of a rehab asignment (which, IIRC, can't last more than 30 days); McGowan has had no setbacks but is probably, even if all goes well, looking at maybe mid-season.
9. I think there will be a steady trckle of moving guys out as other teams see what they need, but early season trading is always a slow game so you might not see significant moves until June if he doesn't shead a player or two in the next week or so.
10. Have not heard a single word about Campbell this spring. Emaus seems to have all but won the Mets' 2B job (albeit from lack of serious competition).
11. Thames slacked off some as he faced more and more legit major league pitchers but i still think he'll be a beast at AAA.
12. Lowe came over from the minor league camp for a game or two, and got a feature write up in a Toronto paper for his effort, but it's still unclear that the organization has big plans for him.
13. I'e seen or heard nothing to change my remark here.
14. Possibly not. If Drabek sticks in the major league rotation and Zep in the pen, that would ruin the rotation I had been imagining.
15. There were no poor health reports on d'Arnaud in ST, and John Farrell gushed about him.
16. I've heard nothing negative about Sierra.
17. Given the slow and careful approach the team is still exhibiting, I'd be very surprised to see Adeiny promoted before August at the earliest.
18. AA says that Gose will open the year in New Hampshire.
19. Tolisano is still playing a lot of games with the major league squad, and apparently the team is pretty impressed. Jackson has apparently, been assigned to learn CF this year. I've no specific news on Ahrens.
20. nothing new to add here.
21. He was one of the select players that came in for the hot prospect mini-camp but all the news has been about players who played in the major league camp and Sanchez wasn't in that group.
22. Another young player that Farrell drooled over (along with Gose, d'Arnaud, and Lawrie) - he made an impression
23. Obviously too early to tell on this.
24. Nothing came out of camp to suggest the team is wild about him. We'll see.
25. Apparently the Royals have an urge to carry Collins north when they break camp in their major league pen.
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
25 Days - 25 Questions
So, Opening Day is 25 days away (including opening day, since I didn't get this posted earlier) and thus I shall employ that number as a gimmick to frame the 25 items on my list.
That's not the only way I'm forcing the gimmick either - because technically not all of these are really "questions" so much as "this is what I'm watching in 2011" - points of most interest if you will. also, if I was as diligent about churning out content as some of my peers, I'd post one a day until Opening Day but I'm not and, besides, who knows when NinjaGM will strike and (and no, not for Kevin-frickin-Slowey) and change up one or more of these scenarios.
One other disclaimer - these are not in any particular order.
1. "How will the back of the rotation fill out, not just on OD but throughout the season?" It sure seems that Jesse Litsch is all but certain to be the #4. Alex has suggested that Litsch could replace the innings and wins of Marcum and my hunch is that it will take a serious crash/burn, or an injury, to dislodge any of the front four. Given what we saw with Dana Eveland last year, you have to think the Jays might run the same program again this year with JoJo Reyes if he continues to look good in Spring Training. My expectation here is that before the Break he'll be gone though, as Eveland was, and one of the kids will take his place.
2. "How will the middle relief corp shake out?" First, dismiss from your mind the notion of long relief, John Farrel doesn't think there's a role for a long man here. Second, you have to assume that barring a deal (see a later item on that) that fully six of the seven (presumed) slots are set. Purcey, along with the five veteran righties, are in. That leaves a strong competition between Janssen, Villianueva, Roenicke, Carlson (hurting), Reyes (if not in the rotation), Zep (ditto), and maybe Richmond or Mills for that last spot. My STRONG opinion is that Janssen is the worthy guy. But it is a point of some uncertainty.
3. "When does Brett Lawrie arrive?" the question on everyone's lips. The assumption is that the Jays brain trust made up their minds before camp what schedule everyone was on - and unless you see Bautista taking some reps in RF you can probably roll with that - but Lawrie is doing just what he promised to do by trying to force the issue with his play. My guess? Rivera will be dealt, or waived, in June and Lawrie takes over then. And might just hit his way into the ROY conversation in the process.
4. "Why not play Snider in RF?" The reports on Rivera (per Twitter) is the turf won't be kind to his defense. It's true that when Lawrie (presumably) arrives the Bautista moves to right, but what if Lawrie gets hurt and Thames is raking? Thames is only going to play left and it seems to me the team needs to know if Snider can play RF. Still, snider reports he's been told to expect to be in left every day.
5. "How bad will Hill's slow spring hamper his recovery at the plate?" Despite the reputation of a slow starter, Hill's actual track record is having a good April in odd numbered years. The lingering issue with his leg threatens to break that pattern. Hill needs a good April.
6. "Will Brandon Morrow be a Cy contender this year?" Magic 8 Ball says "It is certain."
7. "Which Escobar shows up?" Will it be the 2010 guy with the .655 OPS? Or the guy who entered that season with an ops of .801? My guess is the latter.
8. "Will Dustin McGowan or Chad Cordero make it back to productivity?" And if they do, will the Jays manage to make roster space for them?
9. "So when does Alex start trading off the excess?" Let's assume, for a moment, the slim possibility that both Dusty and Cordero recover, and no one else has a major injury - the simple math of the matter is that even without putting undue faith in the Romie Lewises or Winston Abreus of the world, the Jays have as many as 20 pitchers who can make a reasonably good case for being on a pitching staff that likely won't exceed 12 players total. Something HAS to give. Injuries will thin that a bit, and it's true that some depth is a good thing. but that 20 players doesn't count guys who would make reasonably high quality depth like Robert Ray or Brad Mills. and if you need a starter, Zach Stewart (who I also left out of that 20) is right there. I keep banging the drum to deal Dotel but I seem to be alone on that.
10. "Whither Scott Campbell and Brad Emaus?" Can Campbell return to enough health to be a prospect again, and if so will the stick to the 3B experiment (which would mean shipping him to AA if Lawrie is in Vegas) or will the let him revert to 2B which is unencumbered at AAA? Unless of course the Mets decide to send Emaus back. He's not having a great spring but you have to think Alderson isn't going to let that drive his decision.
11. "Will Eric Thames be an absolute monster in AAA?" Sure looks that way to me. Lawrie will too, I expect. but he's also probably going to get a shot at promotion that Thames may not get because of roster logistics. The Vegas squad could have an excellent chance at a second (third?) consecutive league MVP award though.
12. "Does Adam Loewen have a future here?" The signals are certainly mixed. obviously he's unlikely to have a very high ceiling, and the opinions for the limited number of slots are starting to pile up. As much as the "Loyal Canadian" story is heartwarming, it seems like at best he might be a matt Stairs type (in role, not in skill set) sort of bench player for a few years if he stays here. If either Thames or Lawrie (to say nothing of both) develop to their potential, there's just too many bodies for him to get regular starts even if he develops into a major league hitter.
13. "Will Zach Stewart come up this year?" My prediction - not before September. If then. there are excellent reasons to wait and almost none to get in a hurry.
14. Will the Vegas rotation be the best in the PCL? If things deveoped right, Vegas could start the season with a rotation of Drabek/Zep/Stewart/Richmond/Mills - that's darn respectable. That might be as good as the Houston or Pittsburgh rotation on opening day. True Drabek (or Zep) will almost certainly be in the Majors by the first of July at the latest. But there's Bobby Ray to step into the gap, and when you look at the number of starts they gave to dregs like Lance Broadway last year, the AAA fans should be impressed with the upgrade.
15. "How will Travis d'Arnaud's back hold up?" It's really, apparently, the only negative about the presumptive AA catcher - if he's healthy he should be an exciting player to watch.
16. "Will Moises Sierra live up to the pre-injury promise?" A bit more under the radar than a lot of the Jays prospects. Would further crowd the OF depth chart if he does.
17. "Will Adeiny stay in AA all year?" My expectation is that he will, given the acquisition of Lawrie, there's less room to zoom him into the majors as quickly as possible. I bet the Blue Jays will take their time.
18. "Where does Anthony Gose open the season and will he break out this year?" He might well be ready for AA, but I have a hunch he'll get about 6 weeks in Dunedin until things warm up so they can continue to polish a few details. I do expect a really big year for him once he's in New Hampshire though (i say this because of how hard it is to be an offensive beast in the FSL).
19. "Whither the high school class of 2007?" Will Kevin Ahrens finally have a consistant quality year now that he's done switch hitting? Can Justin Jackson stay healthy and re-establish a future? Will John Tolisano find a defensive home and live up to the promise many saw? However these question play out, before you say "we were so excited and now look how '07 turned out" - remember that Arencibia, Cecil and Zep came out of that year. If no one else developed (and there are a few more that might) it would be an excellent year. If you get three quality players in any draft you are ahead of the curve.
20. "Check out that Lansing outfield!" Crouse/Marisnick/Kenect should be a LOT of fun for the Lugnut faithful to follow. And that's not to neglect to mention at least three other real prospects in the batting order (Carlos Perez, KC Hobson, and Gus Pierre) and a VERY promising rotation, especially if McGuire starts the year there.
21. Is Aaron Sanchez really that good?" I though last fall I was ahead of the curve in zooming him but as the "experts" have weighed in he's gotten much love. I'll be watching!
22. "How good will Henderson Alvarez be when he breaks out?" One of these years, maybe this year, he's going to get everyone's attention.
23. "Who are going to be the surprise steals from the 2010 draft?" Let's be fair, we all know the Blue Jays got great value on Woj and Sanchez and Syndergaard, and also by paying DJ Thon like a first rounder to forgo Rice. But I'm not really speaking of the top 5 round guys here, I'm thinking of guys like Shane Opitz, Mitchell Taylor and Myles Jaye. This time next year we'll all be talking what a steal some guy was.
24. "Will Darin Mastroianni EVER get any respect?" You ask a Keith Law or some such and no one seems very impressed, but the guy just keeps preforming, It's like he's got Tigerblood or something. I'm not saying he's going to be the next Johnny Damon or whoever . . . but I wonder if there's not at least a little Reed Johnson there.
25. "Can we find some way to con the Royals into dealing us Timmy Collins back?" Seriously? We may not NEED pitching but I miss the little guy!
That's not the only way I'm forcing the gimmick either - because technically not all of these are really "questions" so much as "this is what I'm watching in 2011" - points of most interest if you will. also, if I was as diligent about churning out content as some of my peers, I'd post one a day until Opening Day but I'm not and, besides, who knows when NinjaGM will strike and (and no, not for Kevin-frickin-Slowey) and change up one or more of these scenarios.
One other disclaimer - these are not in any particular order.
1. "How will the back of the rotation fill out, not just on OD but throughout the season?" It sure seems that Jesse Litsch is all but certain to be the #4. Alex has suggested that Litsch could replace the innings and wins of Marcum and my hunch is that it will take a serious crash/burn, or an injury, to dislodge any of the front four. Given what we saw with Dana Eveland last year, you have to think the Jays might run the same program again this year with JoJo Reyes if he continues to look good in Spring Training. My expectation here is that before the Break he'll be gone though, as Eveland was, and one of the kids will take his place.
2. "How will the middle relief corp shake out?" First, dismiss from your mind the notion of long relief, John Farrel doesn't think there's a role for a long man here. Second, you have to assume that barring a deal (see a later item on that) that fully six of the seven (presumed) slots are set. Purcey, along with the five veteran righties, are in. That leaves a strong competition between Janssen, Villianueva, Roenicke, Carlson (hurting), Reyes (if not in the rotation), Zep (ditto), and maybe Richmond or Mills for that last spot. My STRONG opinion is that Janssen is the worthy guy. But it is a point of some uncertainty.
3. "When does Brett Lawrie arrive?" the question on everyone's lips. The assumption is that the Jays brain trust made up their minds before camp what schedule everyone was on - and unless you see Bautista taking some reps in RF you can probably roll with that - but Lawrie is doing just what he promised to do by trying to force the issue with his play. My guess? Rivera will be dealt, or waived, in June and Lawrie takes over then. And might just hit his way into the ROY conversation in the process.
4. "Why not play Snider in RF?" The reports on Rivera (per Twitter) is the turf won't be kind to his defense. It's true that when Lawrie (presumably) arrives the Bautista moves to right, but what if Lawrie gets hurt and Thames is raking? Thames is only going to play left and it seems to me the team needs to know if Snider can play RF. Still, snider reports he's been told to expect to be in left every day.
5. "How bad will Hill's slow spring hamper his recovery at the plate?" Despite the reputation of a slow starter, Hill's actual track record is having a good April in odd numbered years. The lingering issue with his leg threatens to break that pattern. Hill needs a good April.
6. "Will Brandon Morrow be a Cy contender this year?" Magic 8 Ball says "It is certain."
7. "Which Escobar shows up?" Will it be the 2010 guy with the .655 OPS? Or the guy who entered that season with an ops of .801? My guess is the latter.
8. "Will Dustin McGowan or Chad Cordero make it back to productivity?" And if they do, will the Jays manage to make roster space for them?
9. "So when does Alex start trading off the excess?" Let's assume, for a moment, the slim possibility that both Dusty and Cordero recover, and no one else has a major injury - the simple math of the matter is that even without putting undue faith in the Romie Lewises or Winston Abreus of the world, the Jays have as many as 20 pitchers who can make a reasonably good case for being on a pitching staff that likely won't exceed 12 players total. Something HAS to give. Injuries will thin that a bit, and it's true that some depth is a good thing. but that 20 players doesn't count guys who would make reasonably high quality depth like Robert Ray or Brad Mills. and if you need a starter, Zach Stewart (who I also left out of that 20) is right there. I keep banging the drum to deal Dotel but I seem to be alone on that.
10. "Whither Scott Campbell and Brad Emaus?" Can Campbell return to enough health to be a prospect again, and if so will the stick to the 3B experiment (which would mean shipping him to AA if Lawrie is in Vegas) or will the let him revert to 2B which is unencumbered at AAA? Unless of course the Mets decide to send Emaus back. He's not having a great spring but you have to think Alderson isn't going to let that drive his decision.
11. "Will Eric Thames be an absolute monster in AAA?" Sure looks that way to me. Lawrie will too, I expect. but he's also probably going to get a shot at promotion that Thames may not get because of roster logistics. The Vegas squad could have an excellent chance at a second (third?) consecutive league MVP award though.
12. "Does Adam Loewen have a future here?" The signals are certainly mixed. obviously he's unlikely to have a very high ceiling, and the opinions for the limited number of slots are starting to pile up. As much as the "Loyal Canadian" story is heartwarming, it seems like at best he might be a matt Stairs type (in role, not in skill set) sort of bench player for a few years if he stays here. If either Thames or Lawrie (to say nothing of both) develop to their potential, there's just too many bodies for him to get regular starts even if he develops into a major league hitter.
13. "Will Zach Stewart come up this year?" My prediction - not before September. If then. there are excellent reasons to wait and almost none to get in a hurry.
14. Will the Vegas rotation be the best in the PCL? If things deveoped right, Vegas could start the season with a rotation of Drabek/Zep/Stewart/Richmond/Mills - that's darn respectable. That might be as good as the Houston or Pittsburgh rotation on opening day. True Drabek (or Zep) will almost certainly be in the Majors by the first of July at the latest. But there's Bobby Ray to step into the gap, and when you look at the number of starts they gave to dregs like Lance Broadway last year, the AAA fans should be impressed with the upgrade.
15. "How will Travis d'Arnaud's back hold up?" It's really, apparently, the only negative about the presumptive AA catcher - if he's healthy he should be an exciting player to watch.
16. "Will Moises Sierra live up to the pre-injury promise?" A bit more under the radar than a lot of the Jays prospects. Would further crowd the OF depth chart if he does.
17. "Will Adeiny stay in AA all year?" My expectation is that he will, given the acquisition of Lawrie, there's less room to zoom him into the majors as quickly as possible. I bet the Blue Jays will take their time.
18. "Where does Anthony Gose open the season and will he break out this year?" He might well be ready for AA, but I have a hunch he'll get about 6 weeks in Dunedin until things warm up so they can continue to polish a few details. I do expect a really big year for him once he's in New Hampshire though (i say this because of how hard it is to be an offensive beast in the FSL).
19. "Whither the high school class of 2007?" Will Kevin Ahrens finally have a consistant quality year now that he's done switch hitting? Can Justin Jackson stay healthy and re-establish a future? Will John Tolisano find a defensive home and live up to the promise many saw? However these question play out, before you say "we were so excited and now look how '07 turned out" - remember that Arencibia, Cecil and Zep came out of that year. If no one else developed (and there are a few more that might) it would be an excellent year. If you get three quality players in any draft you are ahead of the curve.
20. "Check out that Lansing outfield!" Crouse/Marisnick/Kenect should be a LOT of fun for the Lugnut faithful to follow. And that's not to neglect to mention at least three other real prospects in the batting order (Carlos Perez, KC Hobson, and Gus Pierre) and a VERY promising rotation, especially if McGuire starts the year there.
21. Is Aaron Sanchez really that good?" I though last fall I was ahead of the curve in zooming him but as the "experts" have weighed in he's gotten much love. I'll be watching!
22. "How good will Henderson Alvarez be when he breaks out?" One of these years, maybe this year, he's going to get everyone's attention.
23. "Who are going to be the surprise steals from the 2010 draft?" Let's be fair, we all know the Blue Jays got great value on Woj and Sanchez and Syndergaard, and also by paying DJ Thon like a first rounder to forgo Rice. But I'm not really speaking of the top 5 round guys here, I'm thinking of guys like Shane Opitz, Mitchell Taylor and Myles Jaye. This time next year we'll all be talking what a steal some guy was.
24. "Will Darin Mastroianni EVER get any respect?" You ask a Keith Law or some such and no one seems very impressed, but the guy just keeps preforming, It's like he's got Tigerblood or something. I'm not saying he's going to be the next Johnny Damon or whoever . . . but I wonder if there's not at least a little Reed Johnson there.
25. "Can we find some way to con the Royals into dealing us Timmy Collins back?" Seriously? We may not NEED pitching but I miss the little guy!
Saturday, 26 February 2011
Prospect Rankings: Compare and Contrast
Here's a steaming pile of ultimately useless info for your Friday night as we look forward to the first official fake game of the year. What follows is something akin to the surveys used to rank college sports team during the season. I took four Jays-fan made lists and awarded points in the traditional manner (high to low) to come up with a consensus ranking, and separately I took for "unbiased" professional lists and did the same thing. the latter list produces a shorter consensus list because at least one of them didn't go beyond 10 names, still, I thought it was at least somewhat interesting to see how the two compare.
For comparison sake, I'll start with the pros. The four lists used here are Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, and Kieth Law (who only gives me 10 names to work with). I'd be happy to calculate in any others, if you direct me to them, in a future update - but these are the four most widely available team-specific lists. A total of 12 players were mentioned as Top 10 players between the four lists - here's how they ranked (using a 10 point high-to-low scale):
1. Drabek - 40
2. Lawrie - 35
3. Stewart - 23
4. McGuire - 22
4. d'Arnaud - 22
6. Arencibia - 21
7. Perez - 14
8. Gose - 13
9. Sanchez - 10
9. Wojciechowski - 10
11. Hechevarria - 9
12. Alvarez - 1
Ranking the fan-made lists was a bit more complex. The ones I used were my own (I know I'm not a go-to source but this is my damned project!), Jays Journal Top 50 (I'm guessing at their last three spots but the rankings won't change if I'm wrong), Batter's Box (written before Lawrie arrived and three others departed, for a total of 28 available names), and Bluebird Banters' Top 40. To control for the discrepancy in the number of players listed, I went with a 50 point scale which didn't create a major complication until I got to #25 - I'll explain later when things get hairy.
I'll say again here that I used what seems to me to be the three most well constructed and/or prominent fan-made lists I'm aware of. if you'd like to recommend others, I'd be happy to consider them (and of course glad to feed the beast by consuming yet another list!).
It's a bit useless to say this but 28 players made all four lists because everyone on the shortest list (BB) made all three other lists, albeit not always in the top 28. The Consensus List reaches 21 names before we have to start making adjustments for players who didn't make one list or another. By the time you get to 30 the adjustments get too complex for the list to be meaningful thereafter.
Here are the results:
1. Drabek - 200
2. Lawrie - 196
3. Stewart - 191
4. Arencibia - 187
5. Perez - 176
6. Hechevarria - 175
7. Gose - 174
8. McGuire - 170
9. d'Arnaud - 169
10. Sanchez - 164
11. Alvarez - 162
12. Marisnick - 159
13. Thames - 152
13. Wojciechowski - 152
15. Jimenez - 141
16. Syndergaard - 134
17. Jenkins - 130
17. Hutchinson - 130
19. Thon - 123
20. Sierra - 118
21. Mastroianni - 117
22. Cardona - 116*
23. Carreno - 103
24. Murphy - 102
25. Sweeney - 102**
26. Pierre - 97
27. Kenect - 96
28. Hawkins - 92***
29. McDade - 89
30. Cooper - 87****
(If you don't know who these people are, you probably need to read up some)
The guys with stars are the players who didn't make the Batter's Box list. Each of them are ranked according to the number of points they'd have had if they were #29 on that list, which obviously all of them couldn't have been. Notes to follow:
* Cardona had a 13 point cushion before he would have fallen below Carreno so this is a safe ranking.
** Sweeney beats out Pierre with five points to spare, so if he would have been at least #32 on that list then his place is secure here.
***Hawkins is in a much more tenuous position, just 3 points ahead of McDade - but I've know way of knowing where his rank would have been if the crew there had gone to, say, 40 names.
****This is the highest Cooper could have ranked, but no other player was close enough to make it questionable to include him.
Looking in detail at the latter list, and the lists which contributed to it, a few things jump out. The JJ list was very heavily skewed to younger prospects. For instance, Brad Mills ranked as high as #19 on one list, but didn't make the Top 50 for JJ. The BB list suffered a bit from changes in the system after it was published (I should note here that I arbitrarily assumed Lawrie would have been #2 on that list though he'd have had to miss the top five entirely to change the aggregate ranking). Also, the Southpaw list I used was the latest version, modified somewhat as information came in over the winter, which I intend to publish in the coming weeks - not the list i published last fall.
Exactly half the 30 names on the list have Joined the organization since Alex Anthopoulos took over. Which, by the way, is not crazy unusual. Prospect lists tend to look for the "next big thing" and new draftees/signing/acquisitions tend to get more attention. On a personal note, i thought I was being radical in my praise for Aaron Sanchez when i put out my original list, but over the winter there was a steady stream of plaudits for the young right hander.
The other interesting aspect of this exercise is the comparison between the pro list and the amateur list. Obviiously, one can't overlook that the views represented by the latter list are highly informed by the expressed views of the professionals (even when your list came out before the pro put out his list, you've still likely heard a lot about his views).
Nine of the top ten on each list also appeared in the top 10 of the other list. The pros rated 2010 draftees McGuire and Wojciechowski marginally higher than the fans, and the fans rate Adeiny and to a lesser extent Arencibia somewhat higher. The degree of consensus though, is pretty high.
And of course, as you compare any one contributing list to the consensus, one must remember that the further you get down the list the more the rankings are intuitive and less critical. The difference between the #21 guy and the number #29 guy are not usually nearly as great as the difference in the #1 and the #9.
In any case, submitted for your consideration.
For comparison sake, I'll start with the pros. The four lists used here are Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, and Kieth Law (who only gives me 10 names to work with). I'd be happy to calculate in any others, if you direct me to them, in a future update - but these are the four most widely available team-specific lists. A total of 12 players were mentioned as Top 10 players between the four lists - here's how they ranked (using a 10 point high-to-low scale):
1. Drabek - 402. Lawrie - 35
3. Stewart - 23
4. McGuire - 22
4. d'Arnaud - 22
6. Arencibia - 21
7. Perez - 14
8. Gose - 13
9. Sanchez - 10
9. Wojciechowski - 10
11. Hechevarria - 9
12. Alvarez - 1
Ranking the fan-made lists was a bit more complex. The ones I used were my own (I know I'm not a go-to source but this is my damned project!), Jays Journal Top 50 (I'm guessing at their last three spots but the rankings won't change if I'm wrong), Batter's Box (written before Lawrie arrived and three others departed, for a total of 28 available names), and Bluebird Banters' Top 40. To control for the discrepancy in the number of players listed, I went with a 50 point scale which didn't create a major complication until I got to #25 - I'll explain later when things get hairy.
I'll say again here that I used what seems to me to be the three most well constructed and/or prominent fan-made lists I'm aware of. if you'd like to recommend others, I'd be happy to consider them (and of course glad to feed the beast by consuming yet another list!).
It's a bit useless to say this but 28 players made all four lists because everyone on the shortest list (BB) made all three other lists, albeit not always in the top 28. The Consensus List reaches 21 names before we have to start making adjustments for players who didn't make one list or another. By the time you get to 30 the adjustments get too complex for the list to be meaningful thereafter.
Here are the results:
1. Drabek - 200
2. Lawrie - 196
3. Stewart - 191
4. Arencibia - 187
5. Perez - 176
6. Hechevarria - 175
7. Gose - 174
8. McGuire - 170
9. d'Arnaud - 169
10. Sanchez - 164
11. Alvarez - 162
12. Marisnick - 159
13. Thames - 152
13. Wojciechowski - 152
15. Jimenez - 141
16. Syndergaard - 134
17. Jenkins - 130
17. Hutchinson - 130
19. Thon - 123
20. Sierra - 118
21. Mastroianni - 117
22. Cardona - 116*
23. Carreno - 103
24. Murphy - 102
25. Sweeney - 102**
26. Pierre - 97
27. Kenect - 96
28. Hawkins - 92***
29. McDade - 89
30. Cooper - 87****
(If you don't know who these people are, you probably need to read up some)
The guys with stars are the players who didn't make the Batter's Box list. Each of them are ranked according to the number of points they'd have had if they were #29 on that list, which obviously all of them couldn't have been. Notes to follow:
* Cardona had a 13 point cushion before he would have fallen below Carreno so this is a safe ranking.
** Sweeney beats out Pierre with five points to spare, so if he would have been at least #32 on that list then his place is secure here.
***Hawkins is in a much more tenuous position, just 3 points ahead of McDade - but I've know way of knowing where his rank would have been if the crew there had gone to, say, 40 names.
****This is the highest Cooper could have ranked, but no other player was close enough to make it questionable to include him.
Looking in detail at the latter list, and the lists which contributed to it, a few things jump out. The JJ list was very heavily skewed to younger prospects. For instance, Brad Mills ranked as high as #19 on one list, but didn't make the Top 50 for JJ. The BB list suffered a bit from changes in the system after it was published (I should note here that I arbitrarily assumed Lawrie would have been #2 on that list though he'd have had to miss the top five entirely to change the aggregate ranking). Also, the Southpaw list I used was the latest version, modified somewhat as information came in over the winter, which I intend to publish in the coming weeks - not the list i published last fall.
Exactly half the 30 names on the list have Joined the organization since Alex Anthopoulos took over. Which, by the way, is not crazy unusual. Prospect lists tend to look for the "next big thing" and new draftees/signing/acquisitions tend to get more attention. On a personal note, i thought I was being radical in my praise for Aaron Sanchez when i put out my original list, but over the winter there was a steady stream of plaudits for the young right hander.
The other interesting aspect of this exercise is the comparison between the pro list and the amateur list. Obviiously, one can't overlook that the views represented by the latter list are highly informed by the expressed views of the professionals (even when your list came out before the pro put out his list, you've still likely heard a lot about his views).
Nine of the top ten on each list also appeared in the top 10 of the other list. The pros rated 2010 draftees McGuire and Wojciechowski marginally higher than the fans, and the fans rate Adeiny and to a lesser extent Arencibia somewhat higher. The degree of consensus though, is pretty high.
And of course, as you compare any one contributing list to the consensus, one must remember that the further you get down the list the more the rankings are intuitive and less critical. The difference between the #21 guy and the number #29 guy are not usually nearly as great as the difference in the #1 and the #9.
In any case, submitted for your consideration.
Saturday, 19 February 2011
On Bautista
Rather than wax at my usual length on my opinion of the Thursday announcement of a five year extension for Jose Buatista, I'm going to largely defer to the excellent work posted at Jays Journal on the subject.
There are a few points that I've mentioned in other places that I'd like to add in a supplementary fashion, and a few points in the linked article I'd like to repeat for emphasis.
On the former:
My completely wild guess is that on the overall value of the deal, the most likely outcome is that the Jays lose value, mildly, in terms of pure statistics. That is, to pull a random number out of the air, they are paying $65 mil for about $55 mil in statistical value. But even that is such a fuzzy conclusion it's like nailing jello to pin it down. I'll mention more about this in a bit.
I'm certainly open to the possibility of a less-likely but not remotely impossible better or worse extreme.
However, I think there's something else at work here that's been alluded to in some places but not expressly stated that I've seen.
Alex has very strong beliefs about team building and not all of them are statistical. Whether he's right or wrong, he clearly believes in things like chemistry and leadership and mentoring. Bautista clearly, in HIS (Alex's) estimation, brings value to the team beyond the stat sheet.
So, in the context of what Alex was shopping for - what HE was in the market for, he did not in fact overpay. Because even if Bautista reverts to (to use a comparison that one commentator invoked) say, Casey McGeehee, who's not a bad hitter in his own right, , those "intangible" qualities Alex looks for do not go away - it's a "skill set" that doesn't fade with age.
Consider this - the Jays have a talented Latin shortstop who has a reputation for, possibly, not always having his head on straight . . . and they have a top prospect from Cuba who they quickly learned needed a Latin influence on the coaching staff. How much value, in a dollar figure, is it worth to the Jays if Escobar and Adeiny each preform half a WAR better on average because of JB's influence? What kind of value does Anthopoulos place (and should WE place) on Bautista working right beside Escobar for a whole season?
You or I might not place much value in those calculations but I'm betting Alex does.
Additionally, and this is also part of the way Alex seems to think, there's a psychological impact on the other, younger players on the team if the Jays appear unwilling to reward a great season (and I'm betting few players think "bet he can't do it again" the way fans do).
Another alternative, less likely but also consistent with what we know of Alex, he may simply have concluded that in a couple of years, if Bautista DOES maintain a 5 or 6 WAR level of production, he could put him on the trade market say after the 2012 season as a consistent top shelf hitter signed to a sweet deal (assuming the state of the franchise at the time made it a better idea to move him than to keep him) - the risk being that you have a 4-5 mil guy making 14 and you have 9-10 mil a year in sunk costs. As others have pointed out, the team has been wiling to write off such money before.
Ultimately, this is a deal not dissimilar to the Rios deal, and I had then and have now no complaints about the Rios deal. If Kenny Williams were to offer him back to us today, I'd be more than happy to drop him Rios CF and pay the contract he has remaining.
One of the things I've noted is that people LOVE to dial up the snark factor in situations like this and think they are making clever points when really, they aren't. One respondent to Christina Karhl's article (as it was linked on Facebook) was to invoke the name of Brady Anderson.
It is true that Anderson had one tremendous outlier year in which he had 50 HR, but people neglect to look closer at the rest of his career. Anderson didn't get regular playing time until age 27 and didn't play a full season until the following year. He had his monster year at age 32 and he brought a career 101 OPS+ into that season (his OPS was .742). For comparison, Joey Bats got his first regular playing time in the majors at 25 but never played a full season until last year at age 29. Coming into 2010 his OPS on his career was .729 and his OPS+ was 91, similar to but slightly less than Anderson's.
Bautista's 2010, his age 29 season, rated a 166 OPS+ and 32 year old Anderson's peak year was a 156. But here's the part a lot of people forget: over the next 4 seasons, Anderson's OPS+ was 117 an he posted an .832 OPS. He didn't decline from being an entirely productive and valuable hitter until his age 37 season. If Anderson is a model for Bautista - If JB puts up a 120ish OPS+ over the next 5 years (through his age 34 season) then the Jays will have received fair market value for a fair market salary.
What's the market value of a 117 OPS+? Well, Alex Anthpoulos specified one named specifically as a player who was a model for the Bautista deal - Dan Uggla. Anyone want to venture a guess as to what Uggla's career OPS+ is?
In referance to points made in the Jays Journal article, here are my take-away points there:
1. The manner in which Bautista refined his swing is not a fleeting thing, it's such a complete change that it's not the sort of thing you can just drift back into old habits on. The article links an MLB.com feature with Jerry Hairston demonstrating the change on Baseball Tonight.
2. The Jays are not paying for a 40-50 home run guy. Hopefully they do that next winter by chasing Albert Pujols. The rhetoric about a huge amount of money that you hear from people on the radio and so forth is just silly. Too casually people invoke "you just got rid of Wells' deal and..." (it was asked at the press conference) but this is not comparable at all to the Wells deal.
3. The Jays didn't back off the idea of Brett Lawrie at 3B in the wake of this deal so while Bautista will be at 3B this year, as soon as they think Lawrie is ready (as early as mid-season but not necessarily) JB is going back to RF for years to come. This makes a lot of sense, if Lawrie holds up his part of the equation because the Jays better OF prospects (who can play RF) are some years away. My personal pick is Jake Marisnick who could advance one level a year and not arrive until 2015.
All in all, while first impressions might provoke some head scratching, I think that the closer one examines the Bautista deal, the more one can support the rational. The Jays might yet find they have overpaid, as measured by statistics, but my bet is that if they have it's such a marginal amount that it's incidental.
***
One other thing on an unrelated note I want to call your attention to - that's the stories of the two injury plagued pitchers working hard to contribute to the Jays in 2011. The first, and the one closer to contributing, is one-time All-Star closer Chad Cordero. Cordero has always been one of my favorite guys and every winter when he was looking for a place to hook on as he traveled the recovery road, I hoped it might be the Jays who gave him a chance and this year it was. There's a great piece by Shi Davidi (is it redundant to say "great piece" by "Shi Davidi"? is there any other sort?) about Cordero's continued attempts to make it back to the majors and his special motivation for doing so on the Canadian press that's well worth a read.
The other is erstwhile Blue Jay starter Dustin McGowan. Gregor Chisholm writes for the Jays official site about McGowan's hopeful spring and his realization that this is his last practical chance to stay healthy.
Cordero, apparently, has a legitimate shot at forcing his way onto the opening day roster. McGowan, naturally, is further behind and has no practical shot at opening day, though manager John Farrell is optimistic he'll get to see game-action in the Spring. Hopefully he'll be ready for major league action by mid-season (that's a wishful thinking time frame on my part, NOT a citation from any team source).
I'm rooting for both men to reclaim a bit of their former luster this year.
Thursday, 17 February 2011
A Moment for Scotty Pods
Alex is certainly on his own schedule today as always. I've been holding back remarks about the Podsednick signing thinking I'd tag it onto a larger piece about the reported Bautista deal. But as that story grows, it becomes more and more unlikely that there's any place in such a post to discuss such an ultimately minor transaction as this one. Plus, the jays are taking their own sweet time to even announce what the did with Bautista, and I refuse to comment without knowing the details. So let me take just a brief moment here to tell you how unimportant the Scotty Pods deal is.
John Morosi tweeted, when the deal was made, that the Jays need a lead off hitter and perhaps Pods was that guy. The problem with that is that as a hitter, the Jays already have a guy who can do, at a minimum, what pods does in Raji Davis – and Davis is a much better defender. The only guys who have to worry about Pods are Corey Patterson and Mike McCoy. Don't be terribly surprised if all three of these guys fall before another player or two added later in the spring who're not even with the team yet. These are all marginal guys and if you are the sort of fan who puts a little money on the outcome of a game or a season on a site like MLB betting at BetUS this deal should have essentially zero effect on how you put your money down.
Saturday, 12 February 2011
Projected rosters: First Look
I hesitate to start this because the idea shares somewhat in common with the latest series of threads at Batter's Box. But I'd intended to do this as ST was commencing and my format is a bit different.
What we're going to do is take a look at how the players in the Blue Jays' system will shake out in terms of minor league assignments. This is, of necessity, a preliminary analysis and injuries, trades, and ST performance will affect these decisions. It's also worth noting that the further from the majors you get, the more uncertainty exists - particularly in the short-season leagues.
There are a few places where I go with an alignment which makes things easier to sort out (i.e., Zep in the majors and Drabek at AAA to start the season, or Scott Campbell at 2B) and there are places where I have to assign players as I would (with my incomplete info) in the absence of knowledge of what the Jays are thinking. With the exception of known existing injuries (Dustin McGowan and Sam Dyson) I assume health for all players. This will not, of course, actually happen. Let's begin.
I will do it team-by-team, and within each team separate starters, relievers, and hitters for separate commentary. Also, I've bolded those I consider the top 60 farm system players to watch (not necessarily the top 60 prospects)
Toronto
Rotation: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Litsch, Rzepczyinski
I'm going with the assumption that Litsch will enjoy the veterans "benefit of the doubt" but I'd guess he's the one here most likely to lose his job to Drabek, and the one featuring the least "stuff." I went with Zep over Drabek because (a) the team needs to know what his value is (b) there's no longer room for him in the 'pen and (c) there's some player control issues that work in their favor if Drabek starts the year in Vegas.
Bullpen: Francisco, Rauch, Frasor, Purcey, Dotel, Camp, Janssen
I'm not a believer in Villianueva and I am a fan of Janssen. The rest here seem quite obvious and I'm quite convinced Francisco is the closer on April 1.
Hitters:
C - Arencibia, Molina
1B - Lind, Encarncion (DH)
2B - Hill
SS - Escobar
3B - Bautista
RF - Snider
CF - Davis
LF - Rivera
Bench - McDonald, Patterson, McCoy
I've a strong feeling at least one player will be added who will push McCoy off the roster. Patterson isn't real safe either. I realize most projections have Snider in LF but I'm thinking that the Jays have so little commitment to Rivera that they'd like to know once and for all if Snider can handle RF, much as they are attempting to make Lind work at 1B. for now, I'm going to project that they start the year with him there (absent a trade).
Las Vegas
Rotation: Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond, Jo-Jo Reyes
The general assumption is that Reyes will not clear waivers, but I'm not at all sure there will be team out there with an open spot in their major league rotation that they would claim him. Mills badly needs a trade if he's gonna start in the majors, the chart is too deep for him here. If Drabek is in AAA it's only for the first couple of months at most. I think the Jays will hold out for an injury or ineffectiveness from one of the five if they can. They won't be eager to replace a guy who has done nothing to lose his job, even for Drabek.
Bullpen: Chad Cordero, Josh Roenicke, Carlos Villianueva, Jesse Carlson, Rommie Lewis, Alan Farina, Luis Perez, Bobby Ray
That's one too many guys, but there are a TON of excess relief arms coming to camp, and these are the eight most notable guys of those not in the majors. If Reyes is gone, Ray or Perez will be starting and that would leave the correct total of seven relievers. Other names who will fill in if there are injuries, trades, etc (and otherwise likely be released) include: Winston Abreu, Will Ledzma, Sean Henn, Mike Hinkley, William Collazo, Brian Stokes and Jamie Vermillyea.
Hitters:
C - Brian Jeroloman, Ryan Budde
1B - David Cooper, Ryan Shealy (DH)
2B - Scott Campbell, Calix Crabbe
SS - Jon Diaz, Manny Mayorson
3B - Brett Lawrie
LF - Eric Thames
CF - Darin Mastroianni
RF - Adam Loewen
Bench - Danny Pearles (OF), and Leonard Davis (OF)
That's actually one too many hitters, but along the way I'll be including extra guys when there's no obvious way to distinguish and when the likelihood is that someone will be hurt and a spot will open up. Other guys on minor league deals who will nominally be candidates for the 51's include Jason Lane, Craig Stansberry (3B), and Al Quintana.
A note here about Scott Campbell - the Jays had been trying him at 3B before his hip injury. Due to the changes in organizational depth at 3B, I've an idea that should he recover he's going to back at 2B. I'm also presuming a bit by putting him at AAA, but I think if he's healthy at his age they need to go ahead and throw him out there rather than being cautious.
New Hampshire
Rotation: Randy Boone, Joel Carreno, Bobby Bell, Wes Ethridge, Steve Raburn
Those last two are minor league Free Agent signings and I frankly don't know what the team thinks of them but it beats recycling previous year filler like BJ LaMura and Mike MacDonald. Bell will at some point be a reliever but it seems to me that unless they think that health prevents, he's more likely to keep a spot in the rotation warm than some scrub filler. Especially with so many relievers in need of work.
Bullpen: Matt Daly, Frank Gailey Ron Uvideo, Ray Gonzalez, Boomer Potts,, Dumas Garcia, Vince Bongiovanni
None of these guys except MAYBE Daly are notable, Gonzalez could be a placeholder in the rotation instead of one of the imports, and any of them could be replaced by the trickle down of excess guys from AAA (and a few surely will be). I've taken the tack of listing younger guys from within the organization ahead of guys who are OBVIOUSLY journeyman filler. There are more than enough such pitchers at lower levels that pushing, for instance, Garcia back down to make room seems like a waste. Other veteran filler types available here include BJ Lamura (who likely gets the next open spot as the team seems to like his usefulness), Mike MacDonald, and Clint Everts.
Hitters:
C - Travis d'Arnaud, Matt Luzza
1B - Mike McDade
2B - John Tolisano, Justin McClanehan
SS - Adeiny Hechavarria, Luis Sanchez
3B - Mark Sobolewski
LF - Adam Calderone
CF - Anthony Gose
RF - Moises Sierra
Bench - Richardo Nanita, Conception Rodriguez
A note re Anthony Gose - my general rule here is that this is a projection of opening day rosters, I make an exception here regarding Gose who I think will likely spend 4-6 weeks (at most) in Dunedin to start the season. I do so in this case because anyone who keeps that CF spot warm will be a total place-holder with no reason for us to discuss his identity. there's just no way to pin down who that might be.
The rest, I think, is largely self-evident, except Sobolewski - see a note about that under the Dunedin section.
Dunedin
Rotation: Chad Jenkins, Henderson Alvarez, Andrew Liebel, Ryan Tepera, Matt Fields
I expect Jenkins to move up on roughly the same schedule that Drabek ought to reach the majors, say around the first of June. Alvarez, if he impresses, more like the first of August. Liebel is coming off injury and might get a benefit of the doubt but not too much rope as the pressure from below will likely be intense. The other two simply had the best numbers (at this level) of the pack of lesser-names crowding the lower levels. Other pitchers who will need a BP role, or a break that is not now apparent in order to stay in the organization include: Ryan Page, Ryan Shopshire, and Dave Sever.
Bullpen: Nestor Molina, Kyle Ginley, Steve Turnbull, Evan Crawford, Matt Wright, Dan Delucia, Russ Buckwalter, Chad Beck
That's too many names, and one or two at least won't make the cut. They are listed by age so the guys toward the end have less rope. Molina is a genuine prospect, Ginley was before he spent most of the last two years hurt. None of the rest really matter, and any of them might be replaced by bumped starters.
Hitters:
C - Antonio Jimenez, Yan Gomes, Jon Talley(1B/DH)
1B - Sean Ochinko (3B, C), Lance Durham
2B - Ryan Schimpf
SS - Justin Jackson, Ryan Goins
3B - Kevin Aherns
LF - Brad McElroy / Broan Van Kirk
CF - Kenny Wilson
RF - Brad Glenn, Chris Hopkins
A lot more uncertainty here. First, to tie up the lose end regarding the third basemen: Sobo is 2.5 years older than Aherns, and while he has fewer reps in Dunedin, he did as well or better than Aherns has done there. in my opinion, that means he gets first crack at AA but if Aherns does re-establish his prospect status, he'll be on the short list for promotion. I still think Ochinko will play mostly at 3B but he'll spend more time at 1B while Ahrens is here.
I gambled in leapfrogging Durham over KC Hobson because - again - Hobson is 2.5 years younger and didn't exactly dominate Lansing in his short trial there. Durham, at 23, has no business in Short Season ball, it's either jump him up here or write him off. and he wasn't awful last year.
I've listed Jackson as a starter as one last show of faith in him, but he could be at 2B with Goins starting or he could be working from the bench. None of these outfielders really matter.
Lansing
Rotation: Deck McGuire, Ash Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison, Daniel Webb, Egan Smith, Casey Lawrence
I listed six here because I have now real way to pick which of these doesn't deserve to be here and I'm gambling that an injury makes room or that they simply carry an extra guy to spot in for double-headers and such. Listed in order of importance.
Bullpen: Dustin Antolin, Dan Barnes, Drew Permission, Dayton Martze, Aaron Loup, Brian Slover, Scott Gracey, Casey Beck
Antolin has potential, or did before injury - he might not be ready for opening day. The next three are lower round picks from the 2010 draft, and the rest is filler. Some of which will be bumped by promotions from rookie-league teams later in the summer.
Hitters:
C - Carlos Perez, Karim Turkmani
1B - KC Hobson, Balbino Fuenmayor
2B - Oliver Dominguez
SS - Gus Pierre
3B - Kevin Nolan, Randy Schwartz
LF - Marcus Kenect
CF - Jake Marisnick
RF - Michael Crouse
Bench - Eric Eiland (OF)
The 3B are placeholders until Sweeney or Hawkins pushes them aside. Conceivably Sweeney could look so good in ST as to grab the job in April.
Vancouver
Rotation: Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Griffin Murphy, Sean Nolin, Devy Estrada
All the best of the younger pitchers from the 2010 draft, plus intriguing Estrada. A VERY good group.
Bullpen: Travis Garrett, Juan Hernandez, Brandon Berl, Zach Outman, Shawn Griffith, Sean Shoffit
Garret is the only mildly promising guy here.
Hitters:
C - Pierce Rankin, Joe Bowen
1B - Yudelmis Hernandez
2B - Kelen Sweeney, Andy Fermin
SS - DJ Thon, Matt Johnson
3B - Chris Hawkins
LF - Yecio Aponte
CF - Marcus Brisker
RF - Jon Jones
OF - Steve McQuail
Only Thon, Sweeney, and Hawkins are really important here - might be too early to be moving Sweeney but this gets all three in the lineup. Again, if Sweeney makes the Lansing roster then that problem is solved.
Below this, there's a lot of filler and a lot of spots that will go to 2011 draftees. I'll only mention a few names.
Shane Opitz is a SS with some promise, likely to play at Bluefield and look for a chance to move up as others in front of him are promoted.
Adonis Cardona is expected to be in the GCL this year, along with young catcher Santiago Nessy and possibly 3B Gabriel Cenas.
A few other 2010 pitchers will be in either Bluefield or the GCL depending on how they shake out in the spring - Justin Nicolino, Mitch Taylor, Zach Adams, and Myles Jaye. Second baseman Brandon Mimms is a final name to make note of here. The rest is irrelevant other than the recently signed Jairo Labour who will probably summer in the Dominican.
[Programing note: The roster comparisons I had said i would do were fundamentally flawed. I had thought of them as a quick-and-dirty look but they were so dirty that there was little use to them. I'm working on a different concept but I want to be careful to make it more useful, so I'll take my time with it and do it in late March hopefully]
What we're going to do is take a look at how the players in the Blue Jays' system will shake out in terms of minor league assignments. This is, of necessity, a preliminary analysis and injuries, trades, and ST performance will affect these decisions. It's also worth noting that the further from the majors you get, the more uncertainty exists - particularly in the short-season leagues.
There are a few places where I go with an alignment which makes things easier to sort out (i.e., Zep in the majors and Drabek at AAA to start the season, or Scott Campbell at 2B) and there are places where I have to assign players as I would (with my incomplete info) in the absence of knowledge of what the Jays are thinking. With the exception of known existing injuries (Dustin McGowan and Sam Dyson) I assume health for all players. This will not, of course, actually happen. Let's begin.
I will do it team-by-team, and within each team separate starters, relievers, and hitters for separate commentary. Also, I've bolded those I consider the top 60 farm system players to watch (not necessarily the top 60 prospects)
Toronto
Rotation: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Litsch, Rzepczyinski
I'm going with the assumption that Litsch will enjoy the veterans "benefit of the doubt" but I'd guess he's the one here most likely to lose his job to Drabek, and the one featuring the least "stuff." I went with Zep over Drabek because (a) the team needs to know what his value is (b) there's no longer room for him in the 'pen and (c) there's some player control issues that work in their favor if Drabek starts the year in Vegas.
Bullpen: Francisco, Rauch, Frasor, Purcey, Dotel, Camp, Janssen
I'm not a believer in Villianueva and I am a fan of Janssen. The rest here seem quite obvious and I'm quite convinced Francisco is the closer on April 1.
Hitters:
C - Arencibia, Molina
1B - Lind, Encarncion (DH)
2B - Hill
SS - Escobar
3B - Bautista
RF - Snider
CF - Davis
LF - Rivera
Bench - McDonald, Patterson, McCoy
I've a strong feeling at least one player will be added who will push McCoy off the roster. Patterson isn't real safe either. I realize most projections have Snider in LF but I'm thinking that the Jays have so little commitment to Rivera that they'd like to know once and for all if Snider can handle RF, much as they are attempting to make Lind work at 1B. for now, I'm going to project that they start the year with him there (absent a trade).
Las Vegas
Rotation: Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond, Jo-Jo Reyes
The general assumption is that Reyes will not clear waivers, but I'm not at all sure there will be team out there with an open spot in their major league rotation that they would claim him. Mills badly needs a trade if he's gonna start in the majors, the chart is too deep for him here. If Drabek is in AAA it's only for the first couple of months at most. I think the Jays will hold out for an injury or ineffectiveness from one of the five if they can. They won't be eager to replace a guy who has done nothing to lose his job, even for Drabek.
Bullpen: Chad Cordero, Josh Roenicke, Carlos Villianueva, Jesse Carlson, Rommie Lewis, Alan Farina, Luis Perez, Bobby Ray
That's one too many guys, but there are a TON of excess relief arms coming to camp, and these are the eight most notable guys of those not in the majors. If Reyes is gone, Ray or Perez will be starting and that would leave the correct total of seven relievers. Other names who will fill in if there are injuries, trades, etc (and otherwise likely be released) include: Winston Abreu, Will Ledzma, Sean Henn, Mike Hinkley, William Collazo, Brian Stokes and Jamie Vermillyea.
Hitters:
C - Brian Jeroloman, Ryan Budde
1B - David Cooper, Ryan Shealy (DH)
2B - Scott Campbell, Calix Crabbe
SS - Jon Diaz, Manny Mayorson
3B - Brett Lawrie
LF - Eric Thames
CF - Darin Mastroianni
RF - Adam Loewen
Bench - Danny Pearles (OF), and Leonard Davis (OF)
That's actually one too many hitters, but along the way I'll be including extra guys when there's no obvious way to distinguish and when the likelihood is that someone will be hurt and a spot will open up. Other guys on minor league deals who will nominally be candidates for the 51's include Jason Lane, Craig Stansberry (3B), and Al Quintana.
A note here about Scott Campbell - the Jays had been trying him at 3B before his hip injury. Due to the changes in organizational depth at 3B, I've an idea that should he recover he's going to back at 2B. I'm also presuming a bit by putting him at AAA, but I think if he's healthy at his age they need to go ahead and throw him out there rather than being cautious.
New Hampshire
Rotation: Randy Boone, Joel Carreno, Bobby Bell, Wes Ethridge, Steve Raburn
Those last two are minor league Free Agent signings and I frankly don't know what the team thinks of them but it beats recycling previous year filler like BJ LaMura and Mike MacDonald. Bell will at some point be a reliever but it seems to me that unless they think that health prevents, he's more likely to keep a spot in the rotation warm than some scrub filler. Especially with so many relievers in need of work.
Bullpen: Matt Daly, Frank Gailey Ron Uvideo, Ray Gonzalez, Boomer Potts,, Dumas Garcia, Vince Bongiovanni
None of these guys except MAYBE Daly are notable, Gonzalez could be a placeholder in the rotation instead of one of the imports, and any of them could be replaced by the trickle down of excess guys from AAA (and a few surely will be). I've taken the tack of listing younger guys from within the organization ahead of guys who are OBVIOUSLY journeyman filler. There are more than enough such pitchers at lower levels that pushing, for instance, Garcia back down to make room seems like a waste. Other veteran filler types available here include BJ Lamura (who likely gets the next open spot as the team seems to like his usefulness), Mike MacDonald, and Clint Everts.
Hitters:
C - Travis d'Arnaud, Matt Luzza
1B - Mike McDade
2B - John Tolisano, Justin McClanehan
SS - Adeiny Hechavarria, Luis Sanchez
3B - Mark Sobolewski
LF - Adam Calderone
CF - Anthony Gose
RF - Moises Sierra
Bench - Richardo Nanita, Conception Rodriguez
A note re Anthony Gose - my general rule here is that this is a projection of opening day rosters, I make an exception here regarding Gose who I think will likely spend 4-6 weeks (at most) in Dunedin to start the season. I do so in this case because anyone who keeps that CF spot warm will be a total place-holder with no reason for us to discuss his identity. there's just no way to pin down who that might be.
The rest, I think, is largely self-evident, except Sobolewski - see a note about that under the Dunedin section.
Dunedin
Rotation: Chad Jenkins, Henderson Alvarez, Andrew Liebel, Ryan Tepera, Matt Fields
I expect Jenkins to move up on roughly the same schedule that Drabek ought to reach the majors, say around the first of June. Alvarez, if he impresses, more like the first of August. Liebel is coming off injury and might get a benefit of the doubt but not too much rope as the pressure from below will likely be intense. The other two simply had the best numbers (at this level) of the pack of lesser-names crowding the lower levels. Other pitchers who will need a BP role, or a break that is not now apparent in order to stay in the organization include: Ryan Page, Ryan Shopshire, and Dave Sever.
Bullpen: Nestor Molina, Kyle Ginley, Steve Turnbull, Evan Crawford, Matt Wright, Dan Delucia, Russ Buckwalter, Chad Beck
That's too many names, and one or two at least won't make the cut. They are listed by age so the guys toward the end have less rope. Molina is a genuine prospect, Ginley was before he spent most of the last two years hurt. None of the rest really matter, and any of them might be replaced by bumped starters.
Hitters:
C - Antonio Jimenez, Yan Gomes, Jon Talley(1B/DH)
1B - Sean Ochinko (3B, C), Lance Durham
2B - Ryan Schimpf
SS - Justin Jackson, Ryan Goins
3B - Kevin Aherns
LF - Brad McElroy / Broan Van Kirk
CF - Kenny Wilson
RF - Brad Glenn, Chris Hopkins
A lot more uncertainty here. First, to tie up the lose end regarding the third basemen: Sobo is 2.5 years older than Aherns, and while he has fewer reps in Dunedin, he did as well or better than Aherns has done there. in my opinion, that means he gets first crack at AA but if Aherns does re-establish his prospect status, he'll be on the short list for promotion. I still think Ochinko will play mostly at 3B but he'll spend more time at 1B while Ahrens is here.
I gambled in leapfrogging Durham over KC Hobson because - again - Hobson is 2.5 years younger and didn't exactly dominate Lansing in his short trial there. Durham, at 23, has no business in Short Season ball, it's either jump him up here or write him off. and he wasn't awful last year.
I've listed Jackson as a starter as one last show of faith in him, but he could be at 2B with Goins starting or he could be working from the bench. None of these outfielders really matter.
Lansing
Rotation: Deck McGuire, Ash Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison, Daniel Webb, Egan Smith, Casey Lawrence
I listed six here because I have now real way to pick which of these doesn't deserve to be here and I'm gambling that an injury makes room or that they simply carry an extra guy to spot in for double-headers and such. Listed in order of importance.
Bullpen: Dustin Antolin, Dan Barnes, Drew Permission, Dayton Martze, Aaron Loup, Brian Slover, Scott Gracey, Casey Beck
Antolin has potential, or did before injury - he might not be ready for opening day. The next three are lower round picks from the 2010 draft, and the rest is filler. Some of which will be bumped by promotions from rookie-league teams later in the summer.
Hitters:
C - Carlos Perez, Karim Turkmani
1B - KC Hobson, Balbino Fuenmayor
2B - Oliver Dominguez
SS - Gus Pierre
3B - Kevin Nolan, Randy Schwartz
LF - Marcus Kenect
CF - Jake Marisnick
RF - Michael Crouse
Bench - Eric Eiland (OF)
The 3B are placeholders until Sweeney or Hawkins pushes them aside. Conceivably Sweeney could look so good in ST as to grab the job in April.
Vancouver
Rotation: Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Griffin Murphy, Sean Nolin, Devy Estrada
All the best of the younger pitchers from the 2010 draft, plus intriguing Estrada. A VERY good group.
Bullpen: Travis Garrett, Juan Hernandez, Brandon Berl, Zach Outman, Shawn Griffith, Sean Shoffit
Garret is the only mildly promising guy here.
Hitters:
C - Pierce Rankin, Joe Bowen
1B - Yudelmis Hernandez
2B - Kelen Sweeney, Andy Fermin
SS - DJ Thon, Matt Johnson
3B - Chris Hawkins
LF - Yecio Aponte
CF - Marcus Brisker
RF - Jon Jones
OF - Steve McQuail
Only Thon, Sweeney, and Hawkins are really important here - might be too early to be moving Sweeney but this gets all three in the lineup. Again, if Sweeney makes the Lansing roster then that problem is solved.
Below this, there's a lot of filler and a lot of spots that will go to 2011 draftees. I'll only mention a few names.
Shane Opitz is a SS with some promise, likely to play at Bluefield and look for a chance to move up as others in front of him are promoted.
Adonis Cardona is expected to be in the GCL this year, along with young catcher Santiago Nessy and possibly 3B Gabriel Cenas.
A few other 2010 pitchers will be in either Bluefield or the GCL depending on how they shake out in the spring - Justin Nicolino, Mitch Taylor, Zach Adams, and Myles Jaye. Second baseman Brandon Mimms is a final name to make note of here. The rest is irrelevant other than the recently signed Jairo Labour who will probably summer in the Dominican.
[Programing note: The roster comparisons I had said i would do were fundamentally flawed. I had thought of them as a quick-and-dirty look but they were so dirty that there was little use to them. I'm working on a different concept but I want to be careful to make it more useful, so I'll take my time with it and do it in late March hopefully]
Wednesday, 2 February 2011
Stacking Up: Updating the Rays
I hesitated for a while writing the review for the Yankees simply because Anthopoulos makes it hard to know when the musical chairs stop long enough to take a snapshot. But Spring Training approaches and it's time to press on. Before I get to New York, however, I most of course revise the comparison to the Rays, given that both rosters have significantly changed.
Here's is the summations on each part of the team which I drew in my previous post:
On the hitters:
On the whole, I make the rotations largely a push.
And overall:
Damon v. Snider - Damon's not a BAD player but he's old and on the downward curve, you have to go with Snider.
Upton v. Davis - Contra-wise you just have to go with the young potential star here.
Zobrist v. Rivera - Largely a wash, two players with one excellent year in their past but in their most recent season a disappointment.
Ramirez v. Encarnacion - This comes down to asking yourself what Manny has left in the tank. Utimately, i'll give him the benefit of the doubt though I don't think the gap between these two will be huge.
That makes the offensive scorecard read 4 positions for the Jays three for the Rays, and two which can't be called. I'll have to consider them very similar teams at this point. Close enough that while I think the Jays have better talent overall, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays won a few more games anyway. Both teams should be in the 80's for a win total.
Here's is the summations on each part of the team which I drew in my previous post:
On the hitters:
Overall, so far, three which are a wash due to uncertainty, one goes to the Rays and five go to the Jays.On the pitchers:
On the whole, I make the rotations largely a push.
In the bullpen, the Rays have a guy coming off major injury - JP Howell -as their closer, a guy who was non-tendered as their best set up reliever, and a couple of non-discript rooks they got via trade. Oh, and Sonnanstine. Whatever you think of the Jays pen, I hope I don't need to detail these guys to say that the Toronto bullpen is in FAR better shape.
And overall:
Regarding the 'pen, I don't think adding Farnsworth significantly alters the equation, especially since Francisco counters and betters that move. In terms of the offense, you now have the following alignment's which are different:
Frankly, I'm going to have to look closer before I conclude the Rays are even better than Baltimore at this point, let alone Toronto. I think so, based on the rotation, but I wouldn't say so with any confidence. I think a LOT of things would have to go wrong with the Jays for them to finish behind Tampa in 2011.
Damon v. Snider - Damon's not a BAD player but he's old and on the downward curve, you have to go with Snider.
Upton v. Davis - Contra-wise you just have to go with the young potential star here.
Zobrist v. Rivera - Largely a wash, two players with one excellent year in their past but in their most recent season a disappointment.
Ramirez v. Encarnacion - This comes down to asking yourself what Manny has left in the tank. Utimately, i'll give him the benefit of the doubt though I don't think the gap between these two will be huge.
That makes the offensive scorecard read 4 positions for the Jays three for the Rays, and two which can't be called. I'll have to consider them very similar teams at this point. Close enough that while I think the Jays have better talent overall, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays won a few more games anyway. Both teams should be in the 80's for a win total.
Tuesday, 25 January 2011
Deep Deep Depth
Alex is, of course, in the news again today, explaining to the masses what he's up to now. In the interview with Bob McCowan this afternoon he offers some insight into what'a going on with the Jays now and he teases us with the implication that he's pretty much done ("except a minor league deal or two").
First, that disappoints me regarding my Chavez fetish, and second the presumptive lineup of Bautista at 3B and Rivera in RF now seems more likely (not that saying nothing is afoot means NinjaGM won't strike again within the next five minutes.
Beyond that, though, he defended the state of affairs that has the team dripping with pitching options. There are so many, in fact, that I figure a scorecard is needed. Even though the focus of today's deal wasn't the rotation, i might as well be as through here as i tried to be with the offense, since there is some rsisidual impact of one on the other.
Starting Rotation
1. Rickey Romero
2. Brandon Morrow
3. Brett Cecil
That's pretty much set in stone. the other two spots have more or less presumptive candidates, but written in pencil rather than ink.
4. Jesse Litsch
5. Kyle Drabek
In many minds, Drabek is considered the 4th guy because he's the fellow, beyond the Big 3, who seems most likely to be on the staff. But assuming health and a competent ST, Litsch enjoys the benefit of seniority and, in my opinion, the likely holder of "first dibs" on the rotation - and traditionally your rookie (Drabek) will be your #5, regardless of relative talent. As noted, though, these two spots are subject to change should spring inefficiency undermines either guy.
Other candidates include, in what i consider the order of most likely to win an opening day job:
Marc Raepczynski
Jo-Jo Reyes (because he's out of options)
Scott Richmond
Brad Mills
Zach Stewart - who's more talented than anyone else on this list but he'd have to literally cursh his opposition to leapfrog up this list to the top 5 - primarily because he really needs one more season to stretch his max-innings limit. Assuming that the jays didn't lose Reyes on the waiver wire, that would be your Las Vegas rotation. I have to admit I'm not a little troubled that Zep seems pretty much ready but doesn't have a role and has Stewart closing hard on the first one which arises. His major hope right now is that Drabek struggles in the Spring giving him a chance to make himself hard to bypass.
Also, four of those those excess five starters (excepting Stewart) are nominal candidates for the 'pen, although that's an increasingly difficult scenaro to imagine.
Bullpen
Frank Francisco - the favorite to close, IMO.
Jon Rauch - Excellent and obvious option for the 8th inning RH role.
David Purcey - ready for the Downs job and it's crucial to the balence of the pen he fills it.
Octavio Dotel - Still not convinced he stays, but he serves as an alternate to the two righties above and will presumably seldom face a lefty.
Jason Frasor - regulated to middle innings, at least the illusion he can't handle late innings won't be an issue.
Shawn Camp - under-rated, also capable of up to 3 IP so defacto "long reliever"
Those six are all but mortal locks, if healthy and not departed. That leaves one, or possibly two, more spots to fill and so far only one lefty. These candidates, too, are listed in order of the strength of their candidacy A lot of these guys are not really any sort of candidate and are listed because they might be candidates on a less deep team - that is, if things got so bad they had to be called they'd still be at least competent:
Casey Janssen - just as effective Frasor or Camp and under-rated in about every way possible. in a less over-crowded situation he'd be a lock. While I'm unclear on options, I believe the prevailing belief is that he has one left, which hurts his candidacy.
Jo-Jo Reyes - Again, benefits from being out of options and, in this case, left handed. but that alone won't get him in, he HAS to show the team he can be dependable or he'll depart (probably) in the final cuts.
Marc Rzepczyznski - I might be overly optimistic in listing him ahead of the next guy, but I think most teams value the second LH reliever and that, presumably, gives an edge.
Carlos Villianueva - The whole off-season he's been thought of as more or less a lock but the numbers are certainly not in his favor at this point. I'm not sure that he has options but if he doesn't, I expect a late march trade of this guy unless he is most impressive in ST.
Jesse Carlson - Also in play for the "second left hander" position, should the Jays prioritize that role, but Zep is a better pitcher and I'm unclear on his option status. If he has no option either, he might move up into a tie with Reyes on this list.
Josh Roenicke - Would have to be massively impressive to overcome the numbers game.
Scott Richmond - owns RH hitters, but so does Dotel. Virtually no chance.
Brad Mills - an option for the second lefty role, but hard to overcome the guys in front of him.
Zach Stewart - only a candidate in the most technical sense, no way the Jays compromise his development given the number of options available to them.
Alan Farina - no reason to rush him under these circumstances.
Bobby Ray - technically a starter but given the SP depth for the jays, has no real shot and only slightly more of a shot at pitching in relief for the Jays.
That's a total of 22 names mentioned in this article. if we assume that Janssen completes the 'pen in Toronto, then you have Stewart, Zep, Richmond, Mills, Reyes and Ray would be the Vegas rotation and Villianueva, Carlson, Roenicke, Farina, and Ray will be relieving there, along with a couple of other filers such as Luis Perez, Sean Henn and Winston Abreu.
That, frankly, is insane depth. I submit this now, pending revision if I can find out the option status of some of these guys.
EDIT:
Thanks to a comment, I'm reminded that I overlooked Chad Cordero. It's very true that he might be done as an effective major leaguer, but he should be at least mentioned. Also, while I'm speaking of lingering injury recoveries or lack thereof, I'll throw in the name of Dustin McGowan while I'm editing.
The other guys mentioned in the comment I didn't forget, I simply disregarded. Wil Ledzma is major suckage and Abreu can't be as good as his stats or the Rays would have clung to him fiercely given the turnover in their 'pen this winter.
First, that disappoints me regarding my Chavez fetish, and second the presumptive lineup of Bautista at 3B and Rivera in RF now seems more likely (not that saying nothing is afoot means NinjaGM won't strike again within the next five minutes.
Beyond that, though, he defended the state of affairs that has the team dripping with pitching options. There are so many, in fact, that I figure a scorecard is needed. Even though the focus of today's deal wasn't the rotation, i might as well be as through here as i tried to be with the offense, since there is some rsisidual impact of one on the other.
Starting Rotation
1. Rickey Romero
2. Brandon Morrow
3. Brett Cecil
That's pretty much set in stone. the other two spots have more or less presumptive candidates, but written in pencil rather than ink.
4. Jesse Litsch
5. Kyle Drabek
In many minds, Drabek is considered the 4th guy because he's the fellow, beyond the Big 3, who seems most likely to be on the staff. But assuming health and a competent ST, Litsch enjoys the benefit of seniority and, in my opinion, the likely holder of "first dibs" on the rotation - and traditionally your rookie (Drabek) will be your #5, regardless of relative talent. As noted, though, these two spots are subject to change should spring inefficiency undermines either guy.
Other candidates include, in what i consider the order of most likely to win an opening day job:
Marc Raepczynski
Jo-Jo Reyes (because he's out of options)
Scott Richmond
Brad Mills
Zach Stewart - who's more talented than anyone else on this list but he'd have to literally cursh his opposition to leapfrog up this list to the top 5 - primarily because he really needs one more season to stretch his max-innings limit. Assuming that the jays didn't lose Reyes on the waiver wire, that would be your Las Vegas rotation. I have to admit I'm not a little troubled that Zep seems pretty much ready but doesn't have a role and has Stewart closing hard on the first one which arises. His major hope right now is that Drabek struggles in the Spring giving him a chance to make himself hard to bypass.
Also, four of those those excess five starters (excepting Stewart) are nominal candidates for the 'pen, although that's an increasingly difficult scenaro to imagine.
Bullpen
Frank Francisco - the favorite to close, IMO.
Jon Rauch - Excellent and obvious option for the 8th inning RH role.
David Purcey - ready for the Downs job and it's crucial to the balence of the pen he fills it.
Octavio Dotel - Still not convinced he stays, but he serves as an alternate to the two righties above and will presumably seldom face a lefty.
Jason Frasor - regulated to middle innings, at least the illusion he can't handle late innings won't be an issue.
Shawn Camp - under-rated, also capable of up to 3 IP so defacto "long reliever"
Those six are all but mortal locks, if healthy and not departed. That leaves one, or possibly two, more spots to fill and so far only one lefty. These candidates, too, are listed in order of the strength of their candidacy A lot of these guys are not really any sort of candidate and are listed because they might be candidates on a less deep team - that is, if things got so bad they had to be called they'd still be at least competent:
Casey Janssen - just as effective Frasor or Camp and under-rated in about every way possible. in a less over-crowded situation he'd be a lock. While I'm unclear on options, I believe the prevailing belief is that he has one left, which hurts his candidacy.
Jo-Jo Reyes - Again, benefits from being out of options and, in this case, left handed. but that alone won't get him in, he HAS to show the team he can be dependable or he'll depart (probably) in the final cuts.
Marc Rzepczyznski - I might be overly optimistic in listing him ahead of the next guy, but I think most teams value the second LH reliever and that, presumably, gives an edge.
Carlos Villianueva - The whole off-season he's been thought of as more or less a lock but the numbers are certainly not in his favor at this point. I'm not sure that he has options but if he doesn't, I expect a late march trade of this guy unless he is most impressive in ST.
Jesse Carlson - Also in play for the "second left hander" position, should the Jays prioritize that role, but Zep is a better pitcher and I'm unclear on his option status. If he has no option either, he might move up into a tie with Reyes on this list.
Josh Roenicke - Would have to be massively impressive to overcome the numbers game.
Scott Richmond - owns RH hitters, but so does Dotel. Virtually no chance.
Brad Mills - an option for the second lefty role, but hard to overcome the guys in front of him.
Zach Stewart - only a candidate in the most technical sense, no way the Jays compromise his development given the number of options available to them.
Alan Farina - no reason to rush him under these circumstances.
Bobby Ray - technically a starter but given the SP depth for the jays, has no real shot and only slightly more of a shot at pitching in relief for the Jays.
That's a total of 22 names mentioned in this article. if we assume that Janssen completes the 'pen in Toronto, then you have Stewart, Zep, Richmond, Mills, Reyes and Ray would be the Vegas rotation and Villianueva, Carlson, Roenicke, Farina, and Ray will be relieving there, along with a couple of other filers such as Luis Perez, Sean Henn and Winston Abreu.
That, frankly, is insane depth. I submit this now, pending revision if I can find out the option status of some of these guys.
EDIT:
Thanks to a comment, I'm reminded that I overlooked Chad Cordero. It's very true that he might be done as an effective major leaguer, but he should be at least mentioned. Also, while I'm speaking of lingering injury recoveries or lack thereof, I'll throw in the name of Dustin McGowan while I'm editing.
The other guys mentioned in the comment I didn't forget, I simply disregarded. Wil Ledzma is major suckage and Abreu can't be as good as his stats or the Rays would have clung to him fiercely given the turnover in their 'pen this winter.
Say hello to the new closer! (Again!)
Now we're talking.
Yes yes, just as soon as we think we can comment on the shape of the roster (as i did last night) Alex pulls another deal out of his hat.
Yes yes, now we have more RHRP than we have ushers. More on that in a bit. for now, though, let's review the breaking news:
The Jays have dealt Mike Napoli to Texas for Frank Francisco. There's some indication they might be getting some cash back in the deal as well. Francisco is the obvious choice now to be the Blue Jays' closer, IMO.
Over the last three seasons, in a very hitter-friendly park, Francisco has posted an ERA of 3.54 but more importantly, 10.9 K/9 and 3.39 K/BB and further, after April 10 last year his ERA was 2.84, "losing" his job to phenom Neftali Feliz aside. Maybe it's my bias towards high strikeout guys but i think you have to close with this guy.
Of course, now you have no less than seven guys who obviously belong in your bullpen who are right-handed - Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Frasor, Camp, Janssen, and Villianueva. someone has GOT to go. for me, that ought be Dotel, and one of Vilianueva, Frasor, Janssen or Camp as well. not that I have anything specifically against any of those guys (though I have no sentiment for Villianueva and would miss him least) but I'm not comfortable with crowding out ALL the lefties.
Anyway, I'll update this as we find out more but I approve of the deal. So far.
(also, I did say in the previous remarks that the Jays might trade one of these guys to Texas - I just thought it would be the other one)
Yes yes, just as soon as we think we can comment on the shape of the roster (as i did last night) Alex pulls another deal out of his hat.
Yes yes, now we have more RHRP than we have ushers. More on that in a bit. for now, though, let's review the breaking news:
The Jays have dealt Mike Napoli to Texas for Frank Francisco. There's some indication they might be getting some cash back in the deal as well. Francisco is the obvious choice now to be the Blue Jays' closer, IMO.
Over the last three seasons, in a very hitter-friendly park, Francisco has posted an ERA of 3.54 but more importantly, 10.9 K/9 and 3.39 K/BB and further, after April 10 last year his ERA was 2.84, "losing" his job to phenom Neftali Feliz aside. Maybe it's my bias towards high strikeout guys but i think you have to close with this guy.
Of course, now you have no less than seven guys who obviously belong in your bullpen who are right-handed - Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Frasor, Camp, Janssen, and Villianueva. someone has GOT to go. for me, that ought be Dotel, and one of Vilianueva, Frasor, Janssen or Camp as well. not that I have anything specifically against any of those guys (though I have no sentiment for Villianueva and would miss him least) but I'm not comfortable with crowding out ALL the lefties.
Anyway, I'll update this as we find out more but I approve of the deal. So far.
(also, I did say in the previous remarks that the Jays might trade one of these guys to Texas - I just thought it would be the other one)
Monday, 24 January 2011
Machinations!
Might as well chime in on the implications of the Wells trade since it's pretty much the obviously thing to do in the wake of such a major shift the makeup of the team. You have to start by saying up-front that there are WAY too many variables to be firm in any projection. The most you can do is look at the potential outcomes. So what follows is by nature highly speculative, but I'd still like to consolidate what I feel like are at least the higher-probability scenarios.
I want to approach this by position, so that we can dismiss those with the most certainty about them.
Second Base - Aaron Hill. Whatever might have been considered about his shifting to 3B, whenever Alex discusses 3B he always implies that the fall-back position if no one is added there is Bautista.
Shortstop - Yunel Escobar. No real discussion needed.
Center Field - Raji Davis. Short of another acquisition, no one else is a reasonable candidate.
Left Field - Travis Snider. There is one possible variation here - if Bautista plays 3B and no other outfielder is acquired, the assumption is that Rivera will play RF and Snider left, but it's not entirely impossible that would be reversed.
Right Field - if the Jays acquire a 3B, this wil be Bautista and both the player and the team would prefer that. I really think they will. If, however, they don't make an acquisition then Bautista will be at 3B and Rivera would be a starter in the OF, presumable in RF.
Third Base - I still think the Jays are in play on Chavez, though whether or not they will see fit to outbid the Dodgers remains to be seen. There's also Felipe Lopez and some other marginal guys out there. Barring that, or a trade, Bautista is the presumptive 3B with the caveat that there's a non-zero chance that Brett Lawrie will be so impressive in the spring that they will chance skipping him to the majors from day one. As much as I love the kid, you can't rationally project the cautious (with prospects) Jays will do that.
Catcher - make no mistake, unless JP Arencibia is a complete disaster in Spring Training, he's going to break camp as the "full time" starting catcher. Whatever speculation you might have heard about Napoli getting in the way of that is, in my view, entirely misguided. The (negative) defensive reviews regarding Napoli are so ubiquitous as to be un-ignorable. Napoli MIGHT get some starts catching in the "day game after night game" role (with Molina warmed up for a defensive relief appearance) but barring injury, he's not going to be busy back there. On a similar note, to the extent that Napoli might get starts as a DH,I don't think Molina's days are numbered, since burning your backup catcher at DH is a bad move.
First Base - Assuming he doesn't bungle his way out of the job in ST, Lind will be the regular 1B. the major question is, how much rope will they give him vs. LHP? Lind was steadily improving in that regard until last year, but in 2010 his numbers vs. LH would embarrass John McDonald. Was that a fluke? if he rebounds to a reasonable level he'll play full time, but if not, Napoli or Encarnacion will act as a platoon partner to spare Lind further embarrassment. also, if Lind proves unteachable on defense (pretty unlikely) in ST Napoli might open the season as the regular 1B.
DH - I had oringinally assumed, based on Napoli's struggles vs. RHP in 2010, that he would get most of his AB against lefties spelling Lind and that EE would get a lot of time at DH. Upon review, however, one can argue that both Napoli's impressive (v. RHP) 2008 and his 2010 were outliers and that he's competent as a full time hitter. If this is the Jays' view, he'll supplant EE and if they do think he has real platoon splits, then EE will be the primary DH (assuming Lind sticks at 1B).
However, there's another interesting consideration which was pointed out by Magpie on Batter's Box. You might be aware that Mike Mapoli's career year was 2008, in which his season ending OPS was a robust .960 (albeit in 274 plate appearances). What you might not be aware of is much more remarkable.
As late as September 16, 2008 this was Napoli's slash-line stats: .220/.337/.485/.822
After that, in the course of eight games Napoli hit .667 and boosted his final totals to the numbers we've all been so impressed by. in other words, apart from one incredibly hot two week stretch, his 2008 looks much less impressive than his 2009. Now, there's something to be said for the benefit Napoli will gain from moving from a pitcher's park to one which is more firendly to hitters - that alone should stall what otherwise looks like a decline. Still, what you are getting is a guy who's gonna hit about .245/ .335/.485/.820 if he's handled right (i.e. starts against EVERY LHP and sits vs the tougher RHP) and gets around 400 plate appearances.
My GUESS is that for the opening six weeks or so, the Jays will start JP/Lind/Napoli most every day and EE will plug in at DH or 1B on occasion as he fits into the days game. If either of those three show a weakness that needs compensating for, the EE will get more playing time.
One other caveat - both Rivera and Encarnacion are potentially subject to still being traded. The Rangers, for instance, are said to be in the market for a RH bench outfielder. Especially if the presumed 3B addition comes to pass, the Jays might decide they can fill the 4th outfielder role on a more cost efficient basis.
Finally, while we can confidently suggest that the 10 players mentioned so far will be joined by McDonald and Molina in reserve and that leaves (presumably) one other bench job open. If that's the missing 3B, then the team is set barring a departure. If no 3B is added, then they other player must needs be an OF. preferably one who can play CF. Nominally, Corey Patterson is at the front of that line (barring another miuor league deal) but don't be stunned if Darin Mastroianni forces their hand in ST. He's likely already a better player than Patterson.
***
One last aside regarding the Wells deal. Richard Griffin has an article up which I'm too lazy to find a link to which says, in so many words, that as good a guy as Wells is, perhaps his presence had a negative drag on the team in much the same way that Pat Gillick has suggested Bobby Abreu once had a drag on the Phillies. The reading of this article seems to be leading people to the conclusion that there was something lacking in Wells as a leader and role model for the younger players.
I don't think there has to be anything WRONG with Wells or his intensity or whatever for a culture shift to happen in the wake of the departure of a long-time "face of the franchise" Certainly there was nothing "wrong" with Doc's intensity or attitude and yet the culture of the pitching staff took a positive turn (by all reports) in 2010.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see something similar among the offensive players, and Hill does seem well suited to play the role of Marcum this year (I believe it's been said Bautista has leadership qualities as well, but that probably depends on his anticipated tenure). But that expectation shouldn't be seen as slagging Wells' contributions. It's simply a natural result of the culture shift that follows the coming and going of prominent players.
I want to approach this by position, so that we can dismiss those with the most certainty about them.
Second Base - Aaron Hill. Whatever might have been considered about his shifting to 3B, whenever Alex discusses 3B he always implies that the fall-back position if no one is added there is Bautista.
Shortstop - Yunel Escobar. No real discussion needed.
Center Field - Raji Davis. Short of another acquisition, no one else is a reasonable candidate.
Left Field - Travis Snider. There is one possible variation here - if Bautista plays 3B and no other outfielder is acquired, the assumption is that Rivera will play RF and Snider left, but it's not entirely impossible that would be reversed.
Right Field - if the Jays acquire a 3B, this wil be Bautista and both the player and the team would prefer that. I really think they will. If, however, they don't make an acquisition then Bautista will be at 3B and Rivera would be a starter in the OF, presumable in RF.
Third Base - I still think the Jays are in play on Chavez, though whether or not they will see fit to outbid the Dodgers remains to be seen. There's also Felipe Lopez and some other marginal guys out there. Barring that, or a trade, Bautista is the presumptive 3B with the caveat that there's a non-zero chance that Brett Lawrie will be so impressive in the spring that they will chance skipping him to the majors from day one. As much as I love the kid, you can't rationally project the cautious (with prospects) Jays will do that.
Catcher - make no mistake, unless JP Arencibia is a complete disaster in Spring Training, he's going to break camp as the "full time" starting catcher. Whatever speculation you might have heard about Napoli getting in the way of that is, in my view, entirely misguided. The (negative) defensive reviews regarding Napoli are so ubiquitous as to be un-ignorable. Napoli MIGHT get some starts catching in the "day game after night game" role (with Molina warmed up for a defensive relief appearance) but barring injury, he's not going to be busy back there. On a similar note, to the extent that Napoli might get starts as a DH,I don't think Molina's days are numbered, since burning your backup catcher at DH is a bad move.
First Base - Assuming he doesn't bungle his way out of the job in ST, Lind will be the regular 1B. the major question is, how much rope will they give him vs. LHP? Lind was steadily improving in that regard until last year, but in 2010 his numbers vs. LH would embarrass John McDonald. Was that a fluke? if he rebounds to a reasonable level he'll play full time, but if not, Napoli or Encarnacion will act as a platoon partner to spare Lind further embarrassment. also, if Lind proves unteachable on defense (pretty unlikely) in ST Napoli might open the season as the regular 1B.
DH - I had oringinally assumed, based on Napoli's struggles vs. RHP in 2010, that he would get most of his AB against lefties spelling Lind and that EE would get a lot of time at DH. Upon review, however, one can argue that both Napoli's impressive (v. RHP) 2008 and his 2010 were outliers and that he's competent as a full time hitter. If this is the Jays' view, he'll supplant EE and if they do think he has real platoon splits, then EE will be the primary DH (assuming Lind sticks at 1B).
However, there's another interesting consideration which was pointed out by Magpie on Batter's Box. You might be aware that Mike Mapoli's career year was 2008, in which his season ending OPS was a robust .960 (albeit in 274 plate appearances). What you might not be aware of is much more remarkable.
As late as September 16, 2008 this was Napoli's slash-line stats: .220/.337/.485/.822
After that, in the course of eight games Napoli hit .667 and boosted his final totals to the numbers we've all been so impressed by. in other words, apart from one incredibly hot two week stretch, his 2008 looks much less impressive than his 2009. Now, there's something to be said for the benefit Napoli will gain from moving from a pitcher's park to one which is more firendly to hitters - that alone should stall what otherwise looks like a decline. Still, what you are getting is a guy who's gonna hit about .245/ .335/.485/.820 if he's handled right (i.e. starts against EVERY LHP and sits vs the tougher RHP) and gets around 400 plate appearances.
My GUESS is that for the opening six weeks or so, the Jays will start JP/Lind/Napoli most every day and EE will plug in at DH or 1B on occasion as he fits into the days game. If either of those three show a weakness that needs compensating for, the EE will get more playing time.
One other caveat - both Rivera and Encarnacion are potentially subject to still being traded. The Rangers, for instance, are said to be in the market for a RH bench outfielder. Especially if the presumed 3B addition comes to pass, the Jays might decide they can fill the 4th outfielder role on a more cost efficient basis.
Finally, while we can confidently suggest that the 10 players mentioned so far will be joined by McDonald and Molina in reserve and that leaves (presumably) one other bench job open. If that's the missing 3B, then the team is set barring a departure. If no 3B is added, then they other player must needs be an OF. preferably one who can play CF. Nominally, Corey Patterson is at the front of that line (barring another miuor league deal) but don't be stunned if Darin Mastroianni forces their hand in ST. He's likely already a better player than Patterson.
***
One last aside regarding the Wells deal. Richard Griffin has an article up which I'm too lazy to find a link to which says, in so many words, that as good a guy as Wells is, perhaps his presence had a negative drag on the team in much the same way that Pat Gillick has suggested Bobby Abreu once had a drag on the Phillies. The reading of this article seems to be leading people to the conclusion that there was something lacking in Wells as a leader and role model for the younger players.
I don't think there has to be anything WRONG with Wells or his intensity or whatever for a culture shift to happen in the wake of the departure of a long-time "face of the franchise" Certainly there was nothing "wrong" with Doc's intensity or attitude and yet the culture of the pitching staff took a positive turn (by all reports) in 2010.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see something similar among the offensive players, and Hill does seem well suited to play the role of Marcum this year (I believe it's been said Bautista has leadership qualities as well, but that probably depends on his anticipated tenure). But that expectation shouldn't be seen as slagging Wells' contributions. It's simply a natural result of the culture shift that follows the coming and going of prominent players.
Saturday, 22 January 2011
I Love AA
By request, and with apologies to Randy Newman:
Everybody hated JP,
He was a smart-ass
every move he made caused bitchin'
And don''t get me started on Gord Ash, son
Estiban Loaiza is enough said
but there's a whole lot more
But now we got a bright young man
with ideas and plans for years to come
gonna take us back to the glory days
Man it's been too long
Rolled up his sleeves and got to work
Traded Doc and got a mint
hired a thousand scouts
he's always thinkin', always five moves ahead
From the draft picks, to the Cuban,
Getting Morrow, Dealing Vernon
Everybody's very happy
'Cause the man can't lose, got a golden touch
Wonder what he'll do today?
I love AA (We love him!)
I love AA! (We love him!)
Look over at Drabek
Take a look at Lawrie
Look at the flamethrower,
racking up 17 k's
Look at those prospects
Ain't nothing like them anywhere
I love AA (We love him!)
I love AA! (We love him!)
Everybody hated JP,
He was a smart-ass
every move he made caused bitchin'
And don''t get me started on Gord Ash, son
Estiban Loaiza is enough said
but there's a whole lot more
But now we got a bright young man
with ideas and plans for years to come
gonna take us back to the glory days
Man it's been too long
Rolled up his sleeves and got to work
Traded Doc and got a mint
hired a thousand scouts
he's always thinkin', always five moves ahead
From the draft picks, to the Cuban,
Getting Morrow, Dealing Vernon
Everybody's very happy
'Cause the man can't lose, got a golden touch
Wonder what he'll do today?
I love AA (We love him!)
I love AA! (We love him!)
Look over at Drabek
Take a look at Lawrie
Look at the flamethrower,
racking up 17 k's
Look at those prospects
Ain't nothing like them anywhere
I love AA (We love him!)
I love AA! (We love him!)
Friday, 21 January 2011
NinjaGM!
If you can see Alex Anthopoulos, he can see you. If you can't see Alexi, you may be only moments from a surprise blockbuster deal.
Is it too late to get our NinjaGM in the 2011 Hall of Fame class?
Yes, you know by now: Vernon Wells was traded to the Angels for C/1B Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera, what you may not have known is - that's it! No prospects included, no "cash considerations," no nothing. The Jays just shaved anywhere from $11.65 to $12.45 mil million off this year's payroll and $21 million apiece off each of the next three (Rivera is a free agent after 2011, and Napoli will be arbitration eligible for one more season before free agency after the 2012 season). That puts the current pay projection at a low of $60.966 (per my previous estimations) and a high of $61.766. There may well yet be a signing (Eric Chavez?) but the big money free agents are gone now.
(Damon and Ramirez both went to the Rays tonight as well - that leaves Vlad Guerrero as possibly the most expensive guy left and he wouldn't be more than $2-3 mil)
That's not to say this is our roster, there are other considerations.
For starters, at first blush Mike Napoli has the potential to make Edwin Encarnacion superfluous. It's true that the jays could, in theory, let Napoli (who CRUSHES LHP) platoon with Lind at 1B (which would be about 25% of games) and start a time or two a week behind the plate and DH a bit but that would still only get him to about 2/3 of the Jays games and that seems a waste. But closer examination reveals that Napoli struggled greatly against RHP in 2010. Over the course of the last three years his production against righties has steadily declined. So perhaps the Jays see him as playing that platoon role here. But if they see him as a full time hitter, then Encarnacion would be the big loser.
In theory, either player might now be flipped in another deal.
Rivera, too, while he has a more clearly defined role, could potentially be flipped. Also worth considering here is that he stands to be worth a draft pick if the Jays offer (and he declines) after the coming season.
It goes without saying that Raji Davis now becomes the starting CF and lead-off man. Jose Bautista is much more likely to start in RF (though if the Jays do come up dry on a 3B, Rivera isn't a completely uninteresting option on an OF corner).
I'm still assuming Chavez is likely to be signed soon. And most people feel it's more likely the Jays extend Bautista now but I still don't think it makes them willing to go beyond 3 years or Bautista any more inclined to settle for only three.
And if you want every last detail, Rommie Lewis was DFA'd to make room on the 40 man roster. I know you're crushed.
One bit of trivia - from the date the jays signed that unfortunate contract until today, the Toronto Blue Jays paid Vernon Wells $45.6 million for 4 seasons, for an average of $11.4 mil per season.
All the foregoing said, there's two points that need making: For years the consensus opinion, near universal, was that this deal was "untradeable." You would think people would learn not to speak in such absolutes. Now many of the same people are saying there is "no way" Vernon will opt out. Perhaps the crow isn't so bad and they are willing to risk another helping? To be clear, I think it is still unlikely he will but since this is mostly my last need to analyze it let me explain.
If Wells and/or his agent think that he can get a longer deal than three years, at a high enough AAV that the total is more than $63 million, then they might see the profit in it. it's not necessary that they be RIGHT about that, only that they THINK it's possible. That almost surely takes a five year deal and yes, you have to be pretty confident to assume you can land one of those at 33. But players have been known to make such mistakes before. Another facotr here is that the emotional bond between Wells and the jays is no longer a part of the equation.
A second possible source of such a choice is a potential desire to return to Texas. Would Wells give up, say, 10-13 million in order to spend the last five years of his career with the hometown team (and playing alongside his best friend in baseball)? If he thinks the rangers would give him, say, $12.5 a year for 4 years, or $11 a year for 5, he just might. don't believe it? Ask Cliff Lee. Ask Roy Halladay. Ask Gil Meache.
The other thing I wanted to say is this: Wells gets a lot of grief for things that are largely out of his control. The deal isn't his fault, and the injuries aren't his fault. Could he have, I dunno, popped up less? Sure, whatever. but he was one of the best human beings in the game, a constant ambassador for the Jays and for the sport, and in the front ranks of charitable contributions. The jays do lose something in this deal - they lose the example that Wells could have provided day in and day out about the sort of role model a professional athlete should be. That deserves our respect and our appreciation.
Tuesday, 18 January 2011
Payroll - Revised
Now that all but two of the arbitration eligible players are under contract, let's take another look:
Under contract as of January 10:
(figures in millions of course)
Wells - 23
Lind - 5
Hill - 5
Dotel - 3.5
Encarnacion - 2.5
McDonald - 1.5
Molina - 1
Romero - 0.75
McGowan - 0.45
Total = $42.7 million
Arbitration-eligible players who've reached agreement:
Escobar - 2.9
Davis - 2.5
Morrow - 2.3
Camp - 2.25
Villianueva - 1.415
Janssen - 1.095
Listch - 0.83
Total = $13.29 million
(got to admit, I was feeling good last night about my predictions after the first wave came in, but I whiffed pretty badly on Morrow and Escobar)
Players set for arbitration, with figures offered and asked:
Bautista - 7.6 / 10.5
Frasor - 3.25 / 3.725
Totals = 10.85 / 14.225
Eight other players at near minimum salary - ~$3.3 million
I wrote Sunday, before the Rauch deal, the following:
That might not be the final salary - there's a relatively strong possibility the Jays might yet sign Eric Chavez. But that's it for now. I should note that Adeiny Hechevarria also gets a major league salary but given there's no chance he'll be on the major league roster on opening day, I don't think that properly accounts to the opening day payroll.
Under contract as of January 10:
(figures in millions of course)
Wells - 23
Lind - 5
Hill - 5
Dotel - 3.5
Encarnacion - 2.5
McDonald - 1.5
Molina - 1
Romero - 0.75
McGowan - 0.45
Total = $42.7 million
Arbitration-eligible players who've reached agreement:
Escobar - 2.9
Davis - 2.5
Morrow - 2.3
Camp - 2.25
Villianueva - 1.415
Janssen - 1.095
Listch - 0.83
Total = $13.29 million
(got to admit, I was feeling good last night about my predictions after the first wave came in, but I whiffed pretty badly on Morrow and Escobar)
Players set for arbitration, with figures offered and asked:
Bautista - 7.6 / 10.5
Frasor - 3.25 / 3.725
Totals = 10.85 / 14.225
Eight other players at near minimum salary - ~$3.3 million
I wrote Sunday, before the Rauch deal, the following:
Until and unless the Jays sign (or trade for) a significant addition, they are not going to significantly break $70 million for the opening day roster.Total of the above if the Blue Jays win both arbitration cases = $70.14 million. No a bad estimate, to pat my own back. If they lose it's $73.515 million. Add Rauch and take away the minimum wage guy he presumably bumps off the roster and those figures are $73.416 and $76.851 million.
That might not be the final salary - there's a relatively strong possibility the Jays might yet sign Eric Chavez. But that's it for now. I should note that Adeiny Hechevarria also gets a major league salary but given there's no chance he'll be on the major league roster on opening day, I don't think that properly accounts to the opening day payroll.
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