Looking at statistics is very helpful, especially if one has done so over the course of enough time to identify trends and spot anomalies and consider things like splits and so forth. Adjustments in opinions have to be made for things like age and experience, injuries, organizational focus (i.e., for instance, Kevin Aherns being asked to stop switch hitting or Kenny Wilson being ask to start, or pitchers being told to focus on developing a specific secondary pitch) which brings you back around to being dependent on the quality of the info you are getting.
So what follows is simply my personal distillation of the information I pick up from more reliable sources, mixed with my own secret recipe of bias, intuition, and speculation. I'd feel worse about that if I didn't know that 95% of all the other prospect lists you are likely to read are spiced with a similar recipe.
I've broken this list up into tiers - I feel more strongly about who's in what tier than I do about the numerical ranks within the given tiers. the further from #1 you get, the more interchangeable the players within any given tier are. Everyone from yesterday's list will be included except the one or two that were largely factitious, plus one bonus guy who we don't actually have yet just because I want to get him on a list before the fall.
Obviously, no team has ever had 80 legitimate prospects, in fact, in any given farm system at any given time there are ulikely to be even 20 guys who actually have respectable major league careers. the problem is, you never know which 20 they are. I think though, that I've included every player in our system who has even a remote shot at that kind of success, with the disclaimer that I really can't say anything about the great majority of the DSL guys, or the late round draftees.
1. Kyle Drabek - RHP, will fint nicely between Rick-Ro and Cecil
2. Brett Wallace - 1B, could hit like Lind?
3. Adeiny Hechavarria - SS, great D, potentially impressive bat
4. Henderson Alverez - RHP, all he needs is time and continued health. Give him 2,3 more years.
5. Zach Stewart - RHP, Can start, might fit our team best as powerful closer?
6. Marc Rzepchinski - LHP, when a guy this good may have to fight for a spot, you are doing well.
7. JP Arencibia - C, John Buck, 2.0 - now with defense!
8. Travis d'Arnaud - C, For some reason, i keep thinking "McCann" with this guy.
9. Brad Emaus - 3B/2B . . . could be classic 2 hole hitter. Pedroia skill-set with less power?
10. Moises Sierra - RF, still developing bat, unbelievable RF arm and solid flycatching.
11. Adam Loewen - RF, Yes. He's this good. I can't prove it yet but wait and see.
12. Aaron Sanchez - RHP, no one else is listing him this high, but I think his ceiling is up there
13. Chad Jenkins - RHP, more likely to reach his ceiling, and faster, than Sanchez
14. Deck McGuire* - RHP, Ditto (still unsigned)
15. Carlos Perez - C, was lavished with praise in off-season.
16. Antonio Jimenez - C, has been lavished with praise THIS season, excelling in Lo-A at 20.
17. Gustavo Pierre - SS, get comparisons to very good players, may grow into 3B
18. Tim Collins - LHRP, does the impossible, routinely.
19. Brian Jeroloan - C, always had outstanding D, now the bat is impressing too.
20. Mike McDade, 1B, Cecil Fielder 2.0?
21. Jake Marisnick - CF, we haven't seen him play yet, but a lot of great clippings
22. Eric Thames - LF, if this guy could play CF, and stay healthy, he'd be top 10.
23. Tyler Pastornicky - SS, holding his own in the FSL at 20
24. Justin Jackson - SS, leap of faith that he can get past injuries and develop
25. Josh Roenicke - RHRP, why can't he bring control to the majors? Mental block?
26. Brad Mills - LHP, just too many high ceiling SP about for him to get a real chance here
27. Danny Farquhar - RHRP, marvelously unorthodox and thus intriguing
28. Trystan Magnuson - RHRP, Mr. Dependable
29. Asher Wojciechowski - RHP, considered a bit of a steal, may not get a lot more IP this year
30. Adonis Cardona* - RHP, just based on the bonus they are reportedly paying
31. John Tolisano - 2B/3B, Need longer spell of success before at plate before I buy in completely
32. Griffin Murphy* - LHP, unsigned as yet - got a lot of praise
33. Marcus Kenect - OF, starting a high schooler at Auburn is a big compliment.
34. Devy Estrada - LHP, my pet project . . . I think others will be calling his name soon.
35. Noah Syndergaard - RHP, like 3 above and others, could shoot up the list once established
36. Shawn Bowman - 3B, a bit of an "out of nowhere" story at this point
37. Scott Campbell - 2B, health a serious issue
38. Ryan Goins - SS, among most impressive hitters in Lansing
39. Dicke Joe Thon* - SS, may not sign, AA called him "a first round talent"
40. Darin Mastorianni - CF, i keep thinking "Scott Podsednick"
41. Chris Lubanski - LF, might not have a place to play, needs a chance
42. Mark Sobolewski - 3B, old for previous level, will get better test now
43. Sean Ochinko - 3B/C, versatility will carry him if he hits some
44. Alan Farina - RHP, dominating, needs a higher level of competition now
45. Kevin Aherns - 3B, we'll have to see how the experiment goes
46. Bobby Bell - RHP, there has to be a reason why he's struggling so.
47. K.C. Hobson - 1B/LF, soon well see if he lives up to pretty good clippings
48. David Cooper - 1B, a mystery what's taking him so long to pull it together
49. Kenny Wilson - CF, raw, and learning to switch, needs lots of time
50. Sam Dyson* - RHP, unsigned, bedeviled by injury but great tools
51. Kris Bryant* - SS/3B, hard to sign, highly praised, could shoot up list if he signs
52. Wellinton Ramirez - RF, interesting player but BB/K ratio is UGLY right now.
53. Yan Gomes - C, how does he ever climb such a deep depth chart?
54. Randy Boone - RHP, marginal guy but gets the most out of it
55. Kellen Sweeney* - SS/3B - compared favorably to brother, could rise fast - unsigned
56. Chris Hawkins - SS/3B - Ditto, except the unsigned thing
57. Justin Nicolino* - LHP, based solely on draft position here.
58. Luis Perez - LHP, could be a Brian Tallet sort
59. Chuck Huggins - LHP, my gut is that he'll hit a ceiling before he hits the majors
60. Egan Smith - RHP, could rise fast if he does so well against player his age
61. Jarret Huffpuair - 2B/3B, marginal guy who better savor his 15 minutes
62. Brian Dopirak - 1B, needed to bolt from the gate in AAA and didn't. Next Ruiz?
63. Bobby Ray - RHP, if he could ever get healthy, could help a pen alal Pete Walker
64. Drew Hutchinson - RHP, could shoot up chart if he impresses
65. Daniel Webb - RHP, ditto
66. Dustin Antolin - RHRP, sidelined by TJ
67. Brad McElroy - OF, old for his level
68. Joel Cerrano - RHP, lots of K's, inconsistent elsewhere
69. Marcus Brisker - CF, like Kenny Wilson, only even more raw
70. Balbino Fuenmayor - 1B, still quite young but needs to step up
71. Jon Talley - C/1B - in an thinner organization (at his position) he'd have a better shot
72. Ryan Schempf - 2B, will take a lot of work and dedication, but it's a thin position
73. Santiago Nessy - C, just too soon to say yet for one so young
74. Ronald Uviedo - RHP, under the radar for now.
75. Mike McCoy - SS, if he can convince the Jays, he'll have a couple of years in the sun.
76. Kyle Ginley - RHP, has to get healthy first.
77. Eric Eiland - Cf, clock is ticking louder all the time
78. Evan Crawford - LHP, impressed early, has slumped badly since mid-May
79. Ray Gonzalez - RHP, probably reached his ceiling
80. John Jaspe - fringe MLB guy in a weak organization, at best
HM: Sean Henn, Rommie Lewis, Kenny Rodriguez, Andrew Liebel, Kyle Phillips
I've broken this list up into tiers - I feel more strongly about who's in what tier than I do about the numerical ranks within the given tiers. the further from #1 you get, the more interchangeable the players within any given tier are. Everyone from yesterday's list will be included except the one or two that were largely factitious, plus one bonus guy who we don't actually have yet just because I want to get him on a list before the fall.
Obviously, no team has ever had 80 legitimate prospects, in fact, in any given farm system at any given time there are ulikely to be even 20 guys who actually have respectable major league careers. the problem is, you never know which 20 they are. I think though, that I've included every player in our system who has even a remote shot at that kind of success, with the disclaimer that I really can't say anything about the great majority of the DSL guys, or the late round draftees.
1. Kyle Drabek - RHP, will fint nicely between Rick-Ro and Cecil
2. Brett Wallace - 1B, could hit like Lind?
3. Adeiny Hechavarria - SS, great D, potentially impressive bat
4. Henderson Alverez - RHP, all he needs is time and continued health. Give him 2,3 more years.
5. Zach Stewart - RHP, Can start, might fit our team best as powerful closer?
6. Marc Rzepchinski - LHP, when a guy this good may have to fight for a spot, you are doing well.
7. JP Arencibia - C, John Buck, 2.0 - now with defense!
8. Travis d'Arnaud - C, For some reason, i keep thinking "McCann" with this guy.
9. Brad Emaus - 3B/2B . . . could be classic 2 hole hitter. Pedroia skill-set with less power?
10. Moises Sierra - RF, still developing bat, unbelievable RF arm and solid flycatching.
11. Adam Loewen - RF, Yes. He's this good. I can't prove it yet but wait and see.
12. Aaron Sanchez - RHP, no one else is listing him this high, but I think his ceiling is up there
13. Chad Jenkins - RHP, more likely to reach his ceiling, and faster, than Sanchez
14. Deck McGuire* - RHP, Ditto (still unsigned)
15. Carlos Perez - C, was lavished with praise in off-season.
16. Antonio Jimenez - C, has been lavished with praise THIS season, excelling in Lo-A at 20.
17. Gustavo Pierre - SS, get comparisons to very good players, may grow into 3B
18. Tim Collins - LHRP, does the impossible, routinely.
19. Brian Jeroloan - C, always had outstanding D, now the bat is impressing too.
20. Mike McDade, 1B, Cecil Fielder 2.0?
21. Jake Marisnick - CF, we haven't seen him play yet, but a lot of great clippings
22. Eric Thames - LF, if this guy could play CF, and stay healthy, he'd be top 10.
23. Tyler Pastornicky - SS, holding his own in the FSL at 20
24. Justin Jackson - SS, leap of faith that he can get past injuries and develop
25. Josh Roenicke - RHRP, why can't he bring control to the majors? Mental block?
26. Brad Mills - LHP, just too many high ceiling SP about for him to get a real chance here
27. Danny Farquhar - RHRP, marvelously unorthodox and thus intriguing
28. Trystan Magnuson - RHRP, Mr. Dependable
29. Asher Wojciechowski - RHP, considered a bit of a steal, may not get a lot more IP this year
30. Adonis Cardona* - RHP, just based on the bonus they are reportedly paying
31. John Tolisano - 2B/3B, Need longer spell of success before at plate before I buy in completely
32. Griffin Murphy* - LHP, unsigned as yet - got a lot of praise
33. Marcus Kenect - OF, starting a high schooler at Auburn is a big compliment.
34. Devy Estrada - LHP, my pet project . . . I think others will be calling his name soon.
35. Noah Syndergaard - RHP, like 3 above and others, could shoot up the list once established
36. Shawn Bowman - 3B, a bit of an "out of nowhere" story at this point
37. Scott Campbell - 2B, health a serious issue
38. Ryan Goins - SS, among most impressive hitters in Lansing
39. Dicke Joe Thon* - SS, may not sign, AA called him "a first round talent"
40. Darin Mastorianni - CF, i keep thinking "Scott Podsednick"
41. Chris Lubanski - LF, might not have a place to play, needs a chance
42. Mark Sobolewski - 3B, old for previous level, will get better test now
43. Sean Ochinko - 3B/C, versatility will carry him if he hits some
44. Alan Farina - RHP, dominating, needs a higher level of competition now
45. Kevin Aherns - 3B, we'll have to see how the experiment goes
46. Bobby Bell - RHP, there has to be a reason why he's struggling so.
47. K.C. Hobson - 1B/LF, soon well see if he lives up to pretty good clippings
48. David Cooper - 1B, a mystery what's taking him so long to pull it together
49. Kenny Wilson - CF, raw, and learning to switch, needs lots of time
50. Sam Dyson* - RHP, unsigned, bedeviled by injury but great tools
51. Kris Bryant* - SS/3B, hard to sign, highly praised, could shoot up list if he signs
52. Wellinton Ramirez - RF, interesting player but BB/K ratio is UGLY right now.
53. Yan Gomes - C, how does he ever climb such a deep depth chart?
54. Randy Boone - RHP, marginal guy but gets the most out of it
55. Kellen Sweeney* - SS/3B - compared favorably to brother, could rise fast - unsigned
56. Chris Hawkins - SS/3B - Ditto, except the unsigned thing
57. Justin Nicolino* - LHP, based solely on draft position here.
58. Luis Perez - LHP, could be a Brian Tallet sort
59. Chuck Huggins - LHP, my gut is that he'll hit a ceiling before he hits the majors
60. Egan Smith - RHP, could rise fast if he does so well against player his age
61. Jarret Huffpuair - 2B/3B, marginal guy who better savor his 15 minutes
62. Brian Dopirak - 1B, needed to bolt from the gate in AAA and didn't. Next Ruiz?
63. Bobby Ray - RHP, if he could ever get healthy, could help a pen alal Pete Walker
64. Drew Hutchinson - RHP, could shoot up chart if he impresses
65. Daniel Webb - RHP, ditto
66. Dustin Antolin - RHRP, sidelined by TJ
67. Brad McElroy - OF, old for his level
68. Joel Cerrano - RHP, lots of K's, inconsistent elsewhere
69. Marcus Brisker - CF, like Kenny Wilson, only even more raw
70. Balbino Fuenmayor - 1B, still quite young but needs to step up
71. Jon Talley - C/1B - in an thinner organization (at his position) he'd have a better shot
72. Ryan Schempf - 2B, will take a lot of work and dedication, but it's a thin position
73. Santiago Nessy - C, just too soon to say yet for one so young
74. Ronald Uviedo - RHP, under the radar for now.
75. Mike McCoy - SS, if he can convince the Jays, he'll have a couple of years in the sun.
76. Kyle Ginley - RHP, has to get healthy first.
77. Eric Eiland - Cf, clock is ticking louder all the time
78. Evan Crawford - LHP, impressed early, has slumped badly since mid-May
79. Ray Gonzalez - RHP, probably reached his ceiling
80. John Jaspe - fringe MLB guy in a weak organization, at best
HM: Sean Henn, Rommie Lewis, Kenny Rodriguez, Andrew Liebel, Kyle Phillips
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