Thursday, 14 August 2008

The Definition of "No Risk Move"

So, word on the wire is that Raul Ibanez was claimed on waivers Tuesday afternoon but no word yet on who the lucky winner was.
Ibanez is obviously no Manny Ramirez, but for the uninformed, he's only hitting like this in Seattle:
.286 .351 .481 .832

That slugging and OPS would both be second only to Adam Lind on the Jays and the OBP would rank third. The man has 18 HR and 60 RBI and I don't need to tell you where those would rank.

The ever-informative MLBTR blog notes that among teams even remotely in the race, the claim order goes like this:

1. Tigers
2. Rangers
3. Blue Jays
4. Yankees
5. Twins
6. White Sox
7. Red Sox
8. Rays
9. Angels

Now, it's reasonably safe to say the Tigers and Rangers didn't make the claim, it's also pretty safe to speculate that once you are past the Jays the Twins and Rays seem the most likely candidates. Now, in my not-so-damn-humble opinion, making the claim was and is a no-brainer for the Jays.

Why? Because of the "three true outcomes" of a waiver claim in August:

1. The M's pull him back and we know we don't have to face him in the TB lineup the rest of the year

2. The M's give him to us and we end up paying roughly 1.25 million for a guy who will get you two draft picks next year which is a good bargain

3. You work out a deal in which you trade guys you are willing to give up for the player and the resulting draft picks (and you can bet your ass that would be "B list" guys, not Cecil or JPA).

The only way you can possibly fuck this up is by trading away too good a prospect to close the deal and if JP were going to do that he would have done so on July 31. The only way it is a bad idea is if the Big Boss won't stretch the budget that much which, again, they were willing to do just two weeks ago.

IF in fact the Jays did NOT make the claim then you can disregard any further happy-talk about management thinking we still have a puncher's chance of contention. this is the very model of a no-risk move.



Navin Vaswani (@eyebleaf) said...

fuck i hope it was us and this goes down. i'm, like, all drooling and shit.

Navin Vaswani (@eyebleaf) said...

i guess that says a lot about the state of the jays offence, when raul ibanez's numbers cause me to salivate like a puppy