State of the bullpen

Now that I'm back, I want to take a look at the future of the Jays' major league squad. Will did a great job showing off the minor leagues, starting with the 1B prospects. While he takes a look at the present and future of the minor leagues, I'm going to take a look at next year's team, starting with the bullpen.

I was gonna write up a long blog about why Wolfe deserved to be in the majors, but thankfully JP called him up for the expanded rosters period. He's one of the better right handed relievers we have, and it's pretty clear to this point that keeping him in AAA was more about service time than about trying to win.

During his time in AAA, Wolfe showed that he was much better suited to the bullpen role. He struggled against lefties significantly, allowing 22 hits and 7 walks in 15 2/3 IP for a 1.85 WHIP. He struggled against lefties in 2007 at the major league level.

Why am I mentioning his struggles against lefties? Well, some people, including both management and fans, believed that Wolfe could be successful as a starter. As a starter, Wolfe will be exposed to left handed hitters more often, and odds are will get knocked around a lot more. Which is pretty much what happened in AAA. Wolfe had a 4.84 ERA as a starter (22 1/3 IP), and a 1.26 ERA as a reliever (14 1/3 IP). Small sample sizes, but when taken into account his struggles vs lefties it's not that surprising.

From this point forward, I think Wolfe should only be used as a reliever. And make no mistake, he should be one of the 7 members of next year's pen.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Frasor, Tallet, and Camp all need to be traded in the offseason. Frasor makes for a decent mop up pitcher, but he's starting to get expensive and there are a ton of better, younger and cheaper pitchers waiting for their chance. He does have some value - a 3.89 ERA, 109 ERA+, and a 1.31 WHIP. Those aren't great numbers, but some team could give up a decent prospect for him. Tallet has been pretty solid this year too, with a 3.27 ERA, 130 ERA+, but an ugly 1.37 WHIP. Again, he's another guy who's going to get expensive, and we have the depth to cover him when he's gone. Camp is the least valuable of the 3, but he really doesn't have a spot going forward. Might as well get what we can for him.

So with those 3 gone, you're looking at a bullpen that includes these names: Ryan, Downs, League, Carlson. I'm not going to bother talking about them much, since it's pretty obvious if they're healthy and on the team that they're locks for the pen. That pen is looking a little light on right handed relief, so Wolfe should easily get a place in the pen. So who would be a good fit for the remaining spots?

If Casey Janssen is ready to go, he could always be a good option. Some would like to see him as a starter - count me down as one of them. But if McGowan is healthy, I don't see a spot available without kicking out Litsch or Purcey. And that's only if/when AJ leaves, and assuming the Jays don't pick anybody up in free agency (for those that hadn't heard yet, JP plans on "staying pat"). So Janssen is most likely headed to the bullpen.

Davis Romero is a favourite of mine - he would be outstanding vs lefties, and this year he has shown the ability to get out right handed bats. He could probably take over Tallet's role.

A lot of fans want to see Brett Cecil pitch - and while I want him to be up here ASAP, he just isn't ready yet. In 6 AAA starts, he has a 4.11 ERA, and is slightly under 2:1 for his K:BB rate. He needs a bit more seasoning before he's ready. And he's too valueable to be wasted as a relief pitcher at this point in his young career.

Scott Richmond is another option who could be used in the pen. I've been a bit unfair to him in the past, but he did pretty well for himself in the majors. Strictly looking at the stats, he struck out 13 and walked 1 in 16 innings - that's pretty damn good. His FIP was 2.84, which is remarkable. He did allow 23 hits in 16 innings, but his 407 BAPIP just isn't sustainable. Yes, his LD rate was high at 23.6, but if I did my math right that only means his BAPIP should be around 350, not 407. Another thing to keep in mind, is that while he allows a ton of hits, he isn't walking anybody. So he might be able to succeed because he's not giving up many free passes. Over a full season his WHIP might be around 1.30, similar to Litsch. But that's just a guess on my part.

I think I let my hate on for the Olympic bullshit get in the way of looking at Richmond fairly. I think he deserves another chance, and that if given that chance he could do a really good job. In my opinion, he should be competing for a spot in next years rotation, and if that fails, he should be the first guy chosen to replace a starter if someone gets injured. If McGowan isn't ready next year, I'd be all for Richmond starting in his place.

I almost forgot to add him to the list, but assuming there's no long-term injury problems Jeremy Accardo should be a lock for the pen. He struggled this year, but I think he can rebound a bit. He won't be as good as the 07 season, but he isn't this bad.

Alright, so with all of the above options to choose from, this is how I see it going down when the dust settles. Ladies and gentlemen, Twitchy's picks for the 2009 bullpen are:

BJ Ryan, Scott Downs, Brandon League, Jesse Carlson, Jeremy Accardo, Brian Wolfe, and Casey Janssen.

Wow. If everybody's healthy that's just unfair. I mean, Davis Romero and Scott Richmond are still in AAA waiting as depth, both for starters and relievers, so it's not like the Jays really cripple their depth by trading away Frasor, Tallet and Camp. It probably won't happen, but I'd be all for BJ Ryan being traded. Don't get me wrong, he's a phenomenal closer, but look at that bullpen and tell me that BJ is needed at 10 million bucks. Assuming BJ is gone, Downs closes, League, Carlson, Wolfe, Accardo, and a recovering Janssen are more than enough depth, and have more than enough experience to handle the loss of Ryan. Davis Romero could join the bullpen as a loogy, and I don't think the team would suffer too much.

Heck, with the 10 million saved by trading BJ, you could afford to go after a big name bat (Burrell, for example) to slot in as the DH.

I realize trading Ryan isn't a popular idea, as our friends at Tao argued, but considering the strength of our bullpen and the options we have available I think trading BJ Ryan in the offseason would be a clever move. It would be a sign that the Jays trust the depth of their bullpen, and want to take advantage of it. The 10 million dollars could be better spent elsewhere - the bullpen won't see a huge drop in effectiveness, but there's a huge difference between putting Matt Stairs or a not so ready Travis Snider at DH compared to a slugging behemoth like Burrell.

While it's difficult to predict how a reliever will pitch year to year, it's looking like the pen will remain a strength heading into next year. It's up to JP (or whoever is the GM in the offseason...I'm available in case you're wondering Mr. Rogers) to take advantage of this.

Twitchy.