Sometimes you make me want to say so long...

I'm not quite yet prepared to offer my comments on the weekend series that effectively ended the Jays season, so let us make do with a MLBTR report (via Jerry Howarth at The Fan) that Brad Arnsberg figures AJ Burnett WILL re-sign with the Jays. Not resign like Richard Nixon, but re-sign.

Commence total plagarization NOW:

Arnsberg's heart says Burnett will stay in Toronto. Burnett's wife loves it there. Arnsberg had multiple heart-to-heart conversations with Burnett discussing the pitcher's future, and leans toward Burnett returning. Arnsberg speculates that it could take another year on the contract to bring him back.

If this is indeed true, it would put JP/JP's successor in a very difficult position because an offer from the AJ camp to have him stay in exchange for a third year would be rather magnanimous considering what he could get from scoundrel Hank Steinbrenner on the open market. That said, I don't necessarily think it's a good idea to reach an agreement on those terms.

Prefacing the following with this:

* AJ is a very talented pitcher who has been superb this month with the team on the fringes of a playoff race
* the Jays will be worse off without him unless they find a replacement outside the organization, and there really isn't a free agent equivilant available in his price range
* I like him as a personality on a team that's otherwise pretty square (looking at you, Lyle Overbay)

Ok, now...

Remembering the maxim that you don't pay a player for the season he just had, it's worth noting that with his next start AJ will almost certainly establish a career high for innings pitched after already posting his best single-season strikeout and win totals. As much as I hate saying it, this was after all only the second fully healthy season (both contract years) of his career. You just can't bank on getting anything like this from AJ ever again.

While his overall numbers this year are very good, but there was a considerable degree of Jeckyl and Hyde-ism: he had two horrid months (April and June), one mediocre one (August), two solid ones (May and July), and it looks like he's on his way to a superhuman September. Every time I hear someone say they saw signs of maturity in AJ this year I kind of wonder what he might've done out of the gate had he not wrecked his fingernail in his car door after what I've always assumed was an offseason temper tantrum.

I really, truly want to see the good, but can't overlook the bad.

Back in February I had a look at AJ's most similar pitchers at baseball-reference and found a depressing list of once-promising power pitchers who flamed out spectacularly in their early 30s (AJ will be 32 going into next season). I'd reckon mightily that whichever team chooses to lock him up through his ages 35/36 seasons is going to see very little--if any--return on their investment towards the end of the deal.

Could AJ help the Jays in '09? Most likely yes, but not so much that a team with limited resources should run the risk of locking him up long-term. At some point in the coming weeks we're going to do a comprehensive, omnibus look at what we think the Jays should do going forward, but I'm coming to the opinion that JP/JP's successor needs to make a big splash this off season (a la 2005/2006) or just batten down the hatches and wait for an infusion of youth (Arencibia, Campbell, Cecil most notably) in 2010.

I'm gonna have to say punt on AJ now, keep those tasty draft picks, and try to patch up the rotation next year with a a cheap one-year turd blossom. (The Oracle likes Carl Pavano, who has pitched very Scott Richmond-ily since coming back from an assortment of faked injuries in August.) But no, I won't celebrate the news if this is what ultimately ends up happening.

-- Johnny Was

Should the Jays "Longoria" Snider?

I was thinking this morning about how amazing Travis Snider is as a 20 year old. I'll admit that I did not want him up here this season in the majors. But in 38 at bats, he's exceeded my expectations. He's hitting a ridiculous 316/366/533 (140 OPS+). The strikeouts are pretty scary - 10 K's in 38 AB which would give him 144-145 in 550 at bats. So it couldn't hurt to give him just a little more time in AAA in my opinion, despite his early success.

But if and when the Jays do ultimately decide to make him a major leaguer, there's very little doubt at this point that he'll become a star. Whether it's as a RF, a LF, a 1B, or a DH, he's going to be one of, if not the best player on the team. So wouldn't it make sense to give him a long term contract, and make sure he's around for as long as possible?

That's when I started thinking about the deal Longoria got from the Rays. Another 06 draftee, Longoria was given a 6 year deal worth 17.5 million dollars, with team options for 3 years worth 7.5, 11, and 11.5 million. So including those numbers, it's a 9 year deal worth 47.5 million. An average value of 5.3 million per year.

Snider and Longoria had very similar numbers going through the minors - Longoria posted a 920 OPS in his brief stay in the minors, while Snider had an 888 OPS in the minors. Snider was 2 years younger, and only had faced high school competition, whereas Longoria had been through a couple of years of playing in college. So it seems more impressive that Snider hit the ground running, and did almost as well as a guy who faced tougher competition, while being YOUNGER than Longoria.

Now, the one thing in Longoria's favour is that he plays better defense at a more critical position. Not only that, he plays it very well - right now he's 7th for qualifiers in ZR, which is very impressive. Snider might end up only playing LF, 1B or DH, as he's currently blocked by Rios in RF for the forseeable future.

Of course there are risks to doing this deal - what if Snider turns out to be a bust? What if he gets injured? Well, you've only guaranteed him 6 years at 17.5 million, for an annual cost of 2.91 mil per season. There is a 3 million dollar buyout to avoid paying the other options, so at worst you pay 20.5 mil over 6 years to a guy who looked like a stud but couldn't deliver.

On the other hand, what if Snider becomes the superstar we expect him to be? In that case, as I've said earlier, you've locked him up for 9 years, at a ridiculously low rate (47.5 or so million). He wouldn't be a free agent till he's what, 30?

In order to beat teams like the Sox and the Yanks, the Jays are going to need to take risks. Signing Snider now (or whenever he becomes a fulltime player) to a deal like this would be a relatively small risk, with a very large reward. It would allow them to build a team around Snider, while ensuring their best player is under market value through his prime years.

There's no guarantee Snider's going to start in 2009 with the Jays. But if he is going to be a regular, the Jays need to look into trying to sign him to a "Longoria" type deal. There's no guarantee Snider would even accept it, but it's an option the Jays just can't ignore.

Twitchy.

Don't You Dare

I realize what I'm about to say doesn't apply to everyone, but you know who you are.

Reading on the various BBS and blogs and comments I keep running across remarks about this weekend series like "we didn't come to play" and "they choked" and "the Red Sox wanted it more" and "the Jays couldn't handle the pressure".

To all of you who feel that way I'd like to kindly invite you to fuck-the-hell-off.

This is a team that has been playing the best baseball in the American League for more than two months, but was digging out of a very big hole. We were going into the home park of arguably the best team in the league - a home park where they play .700 ball, and we were playing a team who's still playing for the division title, not just the wild card.

And some of you are somehow shocked and stunned that we lost 3 of 4? Why? Why the hell do you think we all knew this time last week it would take a miracle? Because we hate to beat Baltimore? Because the Red Sox might lose to Tampa Bay?

No. We knew it was a very long shot precisely because we knew how hard it was to win 3 or more games AT FENWAY PARK!

So yeah, ya know, in case I didn't make it clear, if you are turning like rats and bitching about our players this weekend, questioning their desire and drive, then by all means - "fuck off" is not remotely a strong enough expression for what you need to do right now. Just slink back to that sewer that you bandwagon jumpers lurk in most of the season, go ahead and start preparing all the irrational reasons why JP needs to be fired and the whole roster needs to be blown up. But whatever you do, if you can't be proud of this team for getting this close considering where they stood on June 21, and would rather cry like a little girl because what happened this weekend is exactly what was SUPPOSED to happen, then just keep your damn mouth shut and save yourself the embarrassment of the shit that will flow when you open it.

In the meantime, I, for one, will extend kudos to a team that managed to crawl back into contention when pretty much no one, even most of their own fans, had left them for dead.

Good job, boys. Hat's off to ya.

~WillRain

State of the rotation

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the State of the Bullpen, in which I took a look at who I believe should be in the bullpen for the 09 Jays. I'm not talking about who I expect to be in the pen, but rather, who I think would be best used in the 09 bullpen. I'm going to take a look at who I think should be in the 09 rotation - which is more complicated than it sounds.

I'm not going to waste too much time on Roy Halladay & Shaun Marcum - barring some late season or offseason injury, they're both likely to be the top two pitchers heading into 09. I wouldn't expect Halladay to be this good - as his 154 ERA+ is his third best since 2002. But there's no question he should remain one of the best starters in the AL, if not the majors. Marcum's shown that he can be an above average pitcher, and he should remain one as he gains more experience heading into 2009. The biggest question on Marcum would be his HR rate - is it possible for him to bring it down? He's allowed 21 HR's in 149 1/3 innings pitched, which is an improvement on his 07 season (27 HR's in 159 innings pitched). Still, in order for him to really take that leap to top of the rotation starter, he's going to need to cut down on the HR rates. Otherwise, he'll settle in as a mid rotation guy - and not that that's a bad thing.

Dustin McGowan is a pretty safe bet to have a spot - but the real question is going to be how healthy is he when he comes back. He's expected to be back by spring training, but it's anybody's guess as to how effective he is. Maybe he returns to being that dominant guy we've been waiting for to show up - but he could just as easily be the below average pitcher he was in 08 (98 ERA+). We really don't know, and I think a big part of how well the Jays do next year will depend on Dusty. If he exceeds expecations, and has a huge breakout season (ie sub 4 ERA), the Jays could be in line for a playoff spot. Of course, if he has trouble pitching effectively (due to the surgery or messed up mechanics), the rotation goes from being a strength to a liability.

Assuming McGowan is healthy, Litsch should be the #4 starter heading into 09. Litsch has been surprisingly dominant since his return from the minors - over his past 34 innings, he's won 3 games, has 18 strikeouts (4.7 K/9), and a 1.18 WHIP. Those are good numbers, yes, but the strikeout rate hasn't changed much overall for Litsch. Excluding these 34 innings, the Pre-Litsch strikeout rate was 4.6K/9. Since he's returned, it's 4.8K/9. Not a big improvement to be honest. The only thing I can think of is his groundball rate has improved.

I'll be honest - I'm not really a big fan of Litsch. I feel really nervous when he's pitching, and my gut tells me he's going to regress. I wish him the best, but I just can't shake the feeling he's going to post a 4+ ERA. He's exceeded my expectations this year with a 3.75 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP, so I'll give him credit for that.

In the end, if Litsch is the fourth starter I think he'll provide us with quality innings, and keep us in the game. Which is all you can really ask. If he's our third starter heading into the season, I think we'll be in for a world of hurt.

Finally, this brings us to David Purcey. Like most young pitchers, Purcey has been very inconsistent. A big reason for that has been his lack of control. He's posting terrific strikeout numbers, and he's allowing less hits than innings pitched. That's always a good sign, but Purcey's lack of control is what's stopping him from being an average, if not above average lefty starter. In September he's walked 7 in 17 1/3 (3.5BB/9), and when you're allowing so many base runners to get on for free it's going to cost you. I think he'll be an adequate 5th starter heading into the year. He won't be as good as Litsch was for us, but really you just want your fifth starter to give you 5-6 innings while keeping you in the game.

What I like about using Purcey in the fifth spot over some veteran is that Purcey has a ton of upside. If later in the season he improves his control, then it'll be one of the factors that helps push the team towards the playoffs. Like McGowan, Purcey is going to be one of the keys to the rotation.

We've all been spoiled by the 2008 Jays rotation, which is second in the majors in ERA (at 3.77). It'll be next to impossible for the 09 rotation to be better than the 08, simply because AJ Burnett will be out of the rotation. What's interesting, however, is that out of all the starters who broke camp with the Jays (Doc, AJ, Marcum, McGowan, Litsch), AJ is the one with the worst ERA+ (102), and the worst ERA at 4.19 (minimum 140 innings pitched).

Obviously AJ is incredibly valuable to this rotation, and him leaving is going to make this team worse. I'm not suggesting that him leaving will make our rotation better because he was effectively our worst full time starter. But it's interesting that in what's his worst statistical year as a Jay, he's been given the most praise. Really, the only thing AJ improved on as a Jay was his innings pitched - but the quality of those innings aren't as high as in previous years.

With so many question marks in the rotation, losing a guy like AJ will hurt. Especially if McGowan isn't ready to start the year. Or even if McGowan/Purcey are ineffective - who can the Jays realistically expect to call up and improve the rotation? Current depth options are John Parrish (who may or may not re sign with the team) and Scott Richmond. I'd like to see Richmond get another chance, but I wouldn't want to count on him to take over for a struggling McGowan or Purcey for an extended period of time.

While it may seem like a minor issue, our starters are bound to be hurt, or be forced to miss games for a variety of reasons. Expecting Doc, Marcum, McGowan, Litsch & Purcey to throw 35 games each is setting yourself up for failure. So while it sounds like a small issue that the Jays 6th and 7th starters aren't very good, as we've seen over the past few years injuries happen and you need to be prepared for them. It'll be vital that JP or whoever is GM in the offseason find an adequate starter who they can stash in the minors in the event of an injury.

There's one option which I've neglected to bring up - I'm sure many of you are eager to see Brett Cecil come up and pitch in the majors. Unless I'm mistaken, however, Cecil only threw 118 2/3 innings this year. As a general rule, you try not to exceed a pitchers maxium innings by 30 per year, or else they find themselves having arm troubles (Gustavo Chacin would be a prime example). So to avoid injury to Cecil, I believe he cannot throw more than 148 innings next year. That means his innings need to be carefully monitored to avoid injuring him in the future. So in my opinion, it'd be wrong to call him up for an extended period of time, because it could put both his development and future at risk.

I want to see Cecil in a Jays uniform for a long time. And the sooner the better. But I don't want to see him pitching for the Jays until 2010, when his innings limit will be closer to 178 innings.

The big theme here is that the Jays 09 rotation is going to be dependent on how effective McGowan and Purcey are. If they both exceed our expectations, our rotation could improve on 2008. What's more likely to happen, however, is that Purcey remains inconsistent, McGowan comes back in May (or is inconsistent as well), and that Doc, Marcum & Litsch have to carry the bulk of the rotation.

As I'm going to address in the next issue, it's going to be up to the bats to make up for the loss of AJ and the inconsistencies of the rotation.

In the meantime though, let's just enjoy the fact the Jays have one of the best rotations in the game, and are doing their best to compete for a playoff spot. Because next year, we're going to miss the consistency (damnit, I've said consistency more times than Joe Morgan...) of the rotation.

Twitchy.

Following up on the followup

It's probably not my place to interject on someone else's post, but it's raining, I'm bored, there's no game for almost 3 hours, and Jordan Bastian of mlb.com (the Evan to Mike Wilner's Seth) was kind enough to look up some numbers to clarify something for us. Solid!

Go read Bastian's piece, then come back. Ok, good.

Given that the Jays 30+ year history has seen significant changes in the way the game is played and the pace of run scoring has varied greatly (remember the scrawny guys with bad mustaches in the '70s and '80s and the roided up sluggers in the mid '90s to early '00s?) , let's agree that ERA+ is a better measure of a staff's success over the years than raw ERA.

As everyone should know, OAC Finite, or "gambling math", is the only math worth learning. Nevertheless, baseball-reference describes ERA+ with the following esoteric formula that looks something like calculus:

• ERA+ - the ratio of the league's ERA (adjusted to the pitcher's ballpark) to that of the pitcher. > 100 is above average and <>lgERA / ERA

For non-nerds, this is just a fancy way of evaluating how well a pitcher performed relative to the league after the advantages/disadvantages of the park he pitched in are factored in.

The Jays current staff ERA+ stands at 121 and probably won't change much with only 15 games remaining. That number bests the '92 (105) and '93 (103) Jays, who had a bit of team success, in addition to the '98 Jays (107), whom I mention only because they set the post-Glory Days high water mark for wins at 88.

And the ERA+ leaderboard through franchise history:

1985 - 129
2008 - 121
1987 - 121
1991 - 121
1997 - 115
1982 - 114
2007 - 112

The low ERA teams Monsieur Bastian cites as besting the current Jays staff are the 1989 A's (who laid a pummeling on the Jays in the ALCS) and the 1981 Yankees in a strike-shortened season.

The latter posted a team ERA+ of 118, while the former put up an impressive 123. I think it's fair to speculate that had the '81 Yankees played an additional 55 games for a full season, 36-year-old Rudy May and 38-year-old Tommy John would've seen their ERAs rise, though by how much is a matter of conjecture. Goose Gossage too posted an unreal ERA+ of 461 through 46.7 innings with good, but not unworldly, peripherals. I think their bully would've regressed a bit is what I'm saying.

There's no sortable way I know of to rank teams from 1977 on based on ERA+, so off-hand here are some other teams that popped into my head:

* The 2005 Chisox coasted to a World Series triumph with a relatively weak offense (that did sock dingers like nobody's business) on the backs of an excellent staff that put up an ERA+ of 124.

* The 2004 Bosox put up a 116... and won the World Series to everyone's great dismay. And a 123 in repeating that dirty, unspeakable act again last year.

* For sheer excellence year in, year out, look south. The Braves put up a wicked 129 in 1993, 124 in strike-shortened 1995, 124 again in 1996, 131 in 1997, 128 in 1998, 123 in 1999, 124 in 2001, and capped it with a savage 133 in 2002 before falling to more mortal levels in recent years. That impresses me greatly and the 2002 Braves probably had the best staff of the past 3 decades.

* The 2001 Mariners team that won 116 f'n regular season games before losing to the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs "only" put up a 118. Pussies.

* In the way back file, the 1979 AL Champ Baltimore Orioles had the best pitching of the great Earl Weaver teams of the late '70s and early '80s, putting up a 123.

It kind of sort of looks like the best AL staffs since 1977 were 2005 Chisox, the 2007 Bosox, the 1979 Orioles and 1981 Yankees in that order, but don't quote my fake internet pseudonym on that. If someone wants to invest more time into making a more comprehensive list, I invite you to delve into this long, hard slog and correct my work.

As it stands, it looks like the 2008 Jays do have a decent chance of finishing the season with the 2nd best staff ERA+ in team history, but will have to step it up a collective notch to best last year's Bosox and the 2005 Chisox. I don't think that takes away from the accomplishment, but does put it in perspective a bit.

Beer o'clock. Go Jays!

-- Johnny Was

I Stand Corrected

One of the things I hate is when someone proliferates a bit of erroneous info and it becomes "common knowledge" around the net. So I'll not let myself be a contributor to that if I can help it. The item I posted last night was attributed by a poster named "Matt" to Mike Wilner's blog. He, in turn, attributed the claim to a writer at Baseball Prospectus.

However, the reliable Jordan Bastian notes today that the claim is, in fact, not true. See his game blog today for the details.

I have no way of knowing if the error lies with Matt or with BP or if (most likely) the BP writer was referring to some stat other than "normal" ERA.

In any case, I stand corrected.

Oh, and I'm more than a little pleased to know that our humble blog is among those Mr. Bastian checks out from time to time. I hope we continue to be worthy.

~WillRain

Noted in passing

I'll try to link the source on this later but one of the commenters on Wilner's blog noted that Baseball Prospectus reports that the Jays current (I assume going into yesterday's play) 3.52 team ERA is the lowest in the AL since 1985. Think about that before you sign the petition to fire JP.

~WillRain

Farm Report: Shortstops

I've been slow to continue these reports because I've been so caught up in The Steak that discussion of the future seemed kind of bad form, even with the certain knowledge that the hill is too high to climb. But I don't want to go so long between these lists as to lose the interest of the readers either, so I have to tear myself away from the drama for a bit.

The Jays have added a couple of intriguing alternatives at the position which seems to have been the bane of our franchise since the salad days of Tony Fernandez. But they are both young and far distant from making a major league impact. There are probably three more seasons before we can entertain the notion of an internal solution at SS (barring the not unreasonable idea of moving Hill back over).

1. Justin Jackson (20) 6'2", 175 - 1st round (supplemental) 2007

Jackson was perhaps the most maddening player in the system this year. He had massive swings in production, ranging from red-hot (in April and July) to stone-cold (in June and August) which leave evaluators like me grasping for explanations. There are a couple - he was coming off a stint on the DL during June which may have affected his performance, and it's conceivable that fatigue caught up with him in August - but it goes without saying that the Jays would like to see more consistency from such a highly regarded kid.

That said, there's a lot of raw material to work with here. J-Jack is said to wield a very-good-to-great glove, he's not a good base-stealer but he's a speedy and heads-up baserunner, he has a good eye at the plate (taking 62 walks in 121 at bats) which is impressive for a 19 year old. Physically, the easy comparison to Fernandez springs immediately to mind, and it's not entirely impossible that he would attain that level (which I hope because Fernandez is among my very favorite all-time Jays), but there's another, less inspiring comparison that jumps off the stat sheet: Alex Gonzalez.

Looking at Jackson's totals the biggest negative is easy to spot - 154 strikeouts. Everyone that remembers Gonzo remembers one thing above all: he was a gifted defender with a decent bat who would never give up the idea that he was a power hitter. The harder he tried to hit homers, the more his overall offense suffered. It may well be that we are seeing a similar situation with Jackson. We can only hope that good coaching along the way can get him to play to his strengths rather than trying to be the next A-Rod.

ETA: 2012 at the earliest.

2. Tyler Pastornicky (19) 5'11", 170, 5th round, 2008

A right handed hitter like Jackson, Pastornicky is another one of those players that deserves more notice than he's getting. The Florida high school product excels in all areas of the game except power hitting. The kid is said to have great hands, and is capable of throwing 90+ across the diamond. He has smooth fielding action and shortstop range. He has great speed and is a top notch base-stealer (27 bags in 32 attempts) and he has as many walks as strikeouts. He has the potential for doubles power when he bulks up a bit more, but he'll never be a slugger, nor should he try to be. On top of all this, he's said to have an outstanding makeup and be flowing with baseball savvy (comparable, for instance, to Aaron Hill).

ETA: late 2012, early 2013

3. Luis Sanchez (21) 5'11", 175, 46th round, 2005 (Braves)

Sanchez is a switch-hitter out of Puerto Rico, Sanchez is a well-regarded defender with a lightly-regarded bat. In June and July this season he looked like maybe he had solved that riddle but a severe August fade gave all that gained ground back. It's hard to be optimistic that he's going to hit enough to make the majors. If he does he'll be a very fringy guy.

ETA: likely never. No one you should be counting on if he does.

4. Ryan Klosterman (26) 5'11" 185, 5th round, 2004

Two years ago, Klosterman seemed to have a bright future (a cautionary note about success in the low minors). he had just had a breakout offensive season in which he'd posted an .839 OPS at Dunedin and earned a late season call to AA (where he did not embarrass himself). He was a bit old for his level at the time but not drastically so. He's a skilled smooth defender and his makeup was said to be off the charts. But in 2007 his offense totally collapsed against higher level pitching and has shown no sign of recovery.

If you haven't solved AA pitching by the age of 26, you are almost certainly not going to ever take the field as a major leaguer.

ETA: Never.

5. Pedro Lopez (25) 5'11" 205, signed as NDFA by White Sox

Lopez was once a top 10 prospect for the Chicago White Sox, but if you look at his track record, that was apparently more a function of a weak farm system than Lopez's skill set. Lopez has a 2B arm, lacks plate discipline or power, and is not a particularly good runner. Frankly, if I wasn't being compulsive about making all the lists either five or ten players in length, I would never have mentioned him.

ETA: Never.

Next time - Third Base.

~WillRain

Ten! Ten Wonderful Wins!

Your hometown team was ballin' again today, as they are lately wont to do, picking up two more impressive victories as if they were drunken sluts in a Girls Gone Wild video. In the first game AJ Burnett threw seven innings of 1 hit ball (he had a no-hitter through five) and struck out 7 "good guys." In the second, three Blue Jays homered (Scutaro, Rolen, and Wells) and the Jays cruised to the 8-2 win.

PLAYOFFS!!

Also noted in passing, Alex Rios was the AL player of the week last week after hitting .414 in the first week of September. Continuing the running report on the progress he has made under Cito, Alex is now hitting .324 - .353 - .568 - .923 in 67 games played. Pro-rated to 162 games, Rios would have an incredible 104 XBH.

By the way, the Jays as a team are now 43-27 since Cito took over, which is a .614 winning percentage. That pace over a full season will get you 100 wins - only one AL team (the Angels) have more wins in that period of time. In case it escaped your notice, something similar is happening in Houston. The difference is, though, that the Astros are overachieving (they have an overall run deferential of -16, while the Jays have an RD of +96 (third best in the majors). And all this almost entirely without Dustin McGowan, with Marcum ineffective in half of his starts since the switch, without Aaron Hill ever having swung a bat under Cito, with Scott Rolen being a non-factor and Greg Zaun almost entirely out of gas.

THIS is what I was talking about back in March when I said this was a very good team. It's obviously not what I envisioned, but you never know how the details are going to play out. I'm NOT and never have been in the "Gibbons is a moron" crowd...I still tend to think he's going to get another job at some point (probably in the NL) and have a fine little career. And I was very adamant in April and June that this group of players could not continue to lose in such an aberrational way. BUT, I don't have a factual way to argue with the folks who will argue that Cito made the difference and JP blundered badly in not making the switch sooner EXCEPT to say this:

The Jays went 20-10 in May and were five games over and were 4 games out and well positioned to have had an excellent year. They had hit poorly in key situations (freakishly so) but had every reason to expect that to regress to the mean and to look ahead with optimism. Nineteen days later the Jays had played their manager out of a job. I, for one, do NOT consider three weeks "waiting too long" - even if the math knocks us out of the post season (7 games out with 18 to play!). If the Jays had played mediocre ball the whole time under Gibby, then yeah, but a 20-10 month rightfully buys a man some time.

Meanwhile, if we sweep the White Sox it will be, I believe, the longest winning streak in club history.

~WillRain

One More For The Arms Race?

To his credit, JP has assembled the best-armed armed fighting force the world has seen since the Khrushchev-era Red Army. As such he really shouldn't feel much pressure to add to the best staff in the majors in the offseason and even if he did want to build on what he's already got, why would he throw another reliever into an already-crowded bullpen?

The answer is baffling tale of 25-year-old Vancouverite southpaw RJ Swindle.

MLBTR informs us that Swindle was just DFA'd by the Phillies after 4 2/3 innings in the bigs. Pat Gillick, who's been enjoying a shockingly good year from a pen that was a massive weak spot for his club last season, uncermoniously dumped the young Canuck so he could add retread Japanese infielder Tad Iguchi to the Phillies 40-man roster for the stretch drive. This is the sort of transaction that usually gets buried in very, very fine print on the back pages of the sports section.

The move becomes considerably more eyebrow-raising when you look up Swindle's numbers. The only reason I felt curious enough to do so came because I remembered his name from something I posted on the Canadian Olympic baseball team. His minor league resume is stunning, really.

Some highlights through his 194 IP:

* a startling 9:1 K:BB ratio and 10.48 K/9 IP (226 K and 25 BB)

* 150 hits allowed

* only 4 HR

* 1.58 ERA

* WHIP of 0.90

* AAA success this year


You might wonder how someone with such a strong college background (Big South Conference Rookie of the Year, MVP and Pitcher of the Year awards) and the stuff to put up these sorts of pro numbers could be overlooked in independent ball then get bounced by three major league organizations (Bosox, Yankees and now Phillies). It's positively baffling...

The answer there would be this: despite his 6' 3", 195 lb frame has a BP fastball that tops out at 84 mph and makes his living off a looping 55 mph curve.

Just to demostrate how irrelevant his velocity is, how would you feel if I told you a minor league reliever had posted the above numbers with his 135 kmph fastball and 89 kmph curve? You'd be impressed, right?

It seems odd that post-Moneyball scouts would still dismiss something that doesn't quite conform to our pre-conceived notions of how players are supposed to look/play when the numbers clearly indicate that Swindle is succeeding mightily.

If only for AAA depth in '09, bring him home, JP, and score some nationalism points against Griffin/Elliot/et al. to boot.

***

I've refrained from commenting on the Jays' current winning streak largely because a) moving house and post-moving errands are so horrible that they should be made illegal and punishable by death; and b) I think the baseball that's being played now is pretty much self-explanatory, or perhaps unworthy of any greater dissection with the end-of-year post mortem just 3 weeks away. That's not to say I'm not enjoying the work of my colleagues here, the raging awesomeness of the Ghostrunners, the steady yeomanry of the Taos, the wistful Cassandra-ism from Jon Hale, and the 24-hour keg stand that is DJF. But I've kind of come to the view that it's meaningless to discuss whether these games are meaningful or not; just enjoy them for what they are. Or don't. Your choice.

-- Johnny Was

Purcey's on a roll

Don't look now, but Purcey's been dealing over his last 35 innings. With young pitchers (or in Purcey's case, rookie pitchers), you like to see signs of improvement as they spend more time in the majors. And since Purcey's been given an opportunity to pitch without fear of a demotion, he's taken full advantage of it.

Starting on August 8th against Cleveland, Purcey has gone 35 innings, with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.29. He's allowed 2 home runs in that time - a respectable total, especially considering on the season he's allowed 8 in 53 1/3 innings.

More importantly for Purcey is his control - it's the reason he was in the minor leagues for so long. Until 2007 in AA, Purcey's lowest BB/9 in the professional baseball was 4.48.

Over Purcey's last 35 innings, he's walked 12 batters, for a BB/9 of 3.0. That's not great, but it's not horrible either. Meanwhile, Purcey has struck out 40 in that timeframe, for a K/9 rate of 10.3. Over that timeframe, Purcey's K:BB has been an extremely impressive 3.4. Even AJ, who has a similar skillset in this regard (IE. trouble with walks and huge strikeout numbers) only has a 2.6 K:BB ratio this year.

Again, I realize it's an extremely small sample size, but it's nice to see that over this small stretch that Purcey has shown some improvement. He's not walking as many hitters as he did in his earlier call ups, and he's getting ahead of hitters and striking them out. If Purcey can keep the walks down and the K's up for the rest of the year, then I think he's a lock (barring a Free agent signing) to start next year in the rotation. And I'm really looking forward to see what the new and improved Purcey can do over a full season.

Twitchy.

Eight is NOT Enough!

I don't have any profound insights for you today, no little known fact or pearl of wisdom, I just really wanted to say "FUCK YEAH!!!" about sweeping those damned pesky Rays!

The Jays are finally doing what we have been waiting seemingly since the Great Depression for them to do: that's fulfill expectations. Do you realize that since July 7 the best record in the American League belongs to your Toronto Blue Jays? They are 33-19 during that span. You can figure all the way back to the hiring of Cito Gaston and they are still in the top 6 or 7 records in the game. And that for the whole season they have the 11th best record in baseball?

True, they are still 8 games behind the Red Sox, but they have a chance to finish second in the Wild Card and win as many games as any year since '93. Am I telling you anything you didn't know? Maybe not. But it was getting embarrassing that The Southpaw wasn't commenting on the best run of the year, so I had to come up with something!

So, with a tip of the cap to the Inebriated Ones, "PLAYOFFS!!"

~WillRain

Farm Report: Second Base

Second base has traditionally been the place where the Jays system would turn out mildly competent role-players but not All-Stars. Aaron Hill may prove to be the best 2B to ever come out of the Jays system. In that tradition, there is no potential star lurking at the position this year either, insofar as we can tell at the moment. But there are a couple of guys who look to be better than the Nelson Liranos of the world, too.

1. Scott Campbell - 24 / 5'11", 190 / 10th round 2006

If you pay any attention at all to the Jays farm system, you must surely be aware that Campbell is trying to be the first native of New Zealand to play in the major leagues. While that is a low-grade “nice” story (somewhat better than John Hattig being the first native of Guam for sure, but still) the more interesting question is - “Is he any good?” Early indications are that the answer to that is “Yes, yes he is.”

Campbell spent all of 2008 at AA and that in only his second full professional season. He has an excellent idea of the strike zone (more walks than strikeouts at every level) and doubles power. He hits for a high average and is an on-base machine. On offense, he was ready for AAA pitching by mid-season. So why wasn’t he called up?

Defense. Reportedly he’s got relatively sure hands but the idiosyncrasies of playing 2B, particularly turning the double play, are coming slower to him. For a guy who played almost no organized ball before the college level, that’s not especially bad news.

It's notable that he had a lost August at the plate, after returning from a stint on the DL. Given the quality of the rest of his season we can give him a pass on that, I think. He's been assigned to the Jays squad going to the Arizona Fall League, so he'll get a chance to recover a bit of offensive momentum out there.

If you are one of those fans who loves a good player comparison, here’s the best one you will find in the Jays system - Campbell looks like nothing so much as a young Frank Catalanotto. I’m not 100% sure that there is a starting role for him on the Jays, though they could do worse for a utility guy off the bench, but there’s little doubt this guy is going to see his bat translate to the majors.

ETA: 2010

at AA: .302 - .398 - .427 - .825

2. Brad Emaus - 22 / 6'0", 190 / 11th round 2007

On April 30, few outside the Jays organization gave a second glance at Brad Emaus. He had posted an OPS of .614 in short-season Auburn in 2007, and in the first month at Dunedin, it was an unimpressive .620. But the last four months has put Emaus squarely in the conversation when you talk about future Jays middle infielders. Since May 1, Emaus has an OPS of .883 and in fact, might be in a position now to make a case for being #1 on this list.

His advantage over Campbell is this - he was selected by managers and coaches surveyed by Baseball America as the best defensive 2B in the Florida State League. He also seems to have a bit more power in his bat, having put up 34 doubles and 12 HR in a park and a league said to suppress power totals. When he was drafted, the scouting reports said he “lacked a true position” while observing he had the arm for third base, but not the power. But maybe he’s opened some eyes with both the bat and the glove. If there’s one guy you didn’t know six months ago that you need to keep your eye on, Emaus might just be that guy.

ETA: late 2010, early 2011

At High A: 300 - .378 - .461 - .839

3. John Tolisano - 20 / 5'11" 190 / 2nd round 2007

Many thought Tolisano was great value in the second round of the 2007 draft. So long have scouts been watching Tolisano that he was named the best 14 year old in the the nation in Baseball America’s annual article on the subject. Tolisano lived up to that billing his first two years in high school and then slacked off some and many felt the Jays had a steal. The switch-hitting Tolisano, who has been compared to former Cub Todd Walker, impressed scouts with his bat speed and mechanics at the plate, but less so with his hands and footwork around second base. He seems destined for left field, but such a move then provokes questions of whether he’ll hit enough for that job.

One thing we can say - his season at the plate this year has disappointed his supporters. Since an impressive May, his monthly totals have been in steady decline. The assumption had been that he would take the natural step to Dunedin next year but that has to be in some doubt as Tolisano stumbles down the stretch.

ETA: 2012 at the earliest.

at Low A: ..229 - .315 - .354 - .669

4. Russ Adams - 28 / 6'1", 178 / 1st round 2004

At the All-Star break, there would have been no real reason to mention the player who most personifies so many of the things that JP-bashers are unhappy about, but a funny thing happened on the way to oblivion - Adams figured out where his bat went. In 161 at bats since the AAA All-Star game, Adams has an OPS of .930 and that is a result of putting the bat on the ball. His walk rate has dipped some, and his HR rate is somewhat better. But his batting average went up in a huge way and he hit considerably more doubles per at bat.

Is it a mirage? Quite probably. At his age the likelihood that his abilities have improved that much all at once is very remote. That said, I would like to see a team with an already weak bat and no options at 2B (like the Cardinals for instance) give him one last shot at proving himself. He does have 12 errors, but he's played a lot of outfield and there's no telling how many came at which position, but it's not a massive total for 127 games played, regardless.

One things for sure - that last chance is not going to come in a Blue Jay uniform. It will be a mild surprise if he’s still in the organization next spring.

ETA: N/A

at AAA: .259 - .341 - .417 - .759

5. Jonathan Del Campo - 19 / 6'2", 185 / 20th round 2006

Del Campo rocked the GCL last year but in less than 100 at bats. The one time "best SS prospect in Arizona" was considered a good catch for such a low pick and the Jays gave him a nice bonus to sign. Alas, Del Campo has not entirely lived up to expectations in 2008. In short season Auburn, Del Campo has been just average, posting a .268 average and a .750 OPS. He’s played good defense (inasmuch as you can judge by the low total of only 10 errors) and he has the arm to play SS or third (there was some suspicion among scouts he would develop the power to play 3B). Certainly at his age Del Campo has a couple of years to put himself on the map.

ETA - 2013

at short-season: .268 - .342 - .408 - .750

Next time - shortstops.

~ WillRain

State of the bullpen

Now that I'm back, I want to take a look at the future of the Jays' major league squad. Will did a great job showing off the minor leagues, starting with the 1B prospects. While he takes a look at the present and future of the minor leagues, I'm going to take a look at next year's team, starting with the bullpen.

I was gonna write up a long blog about why Wolfe deserved to be in the majors, but thankfully JP called him up for the expanded rosters period. He's one of the better right handed relievers we have, and it's pretty clear to this point that keeping him in AAA was more about service time than about trying to win.

During his time in AAA, Wolfe showed that he was much better suited to the bullpen role. He struggled against lefties significantly, allowing 22 hits and 7 walks in 15 2/3 IP for a 1.85 WHIP. He struggled against lefties in 2007 at the major league level.

Why am I mentioning his struggles against lefties? Well, some people, including both management and fans, believed that Wolfe could be successful as a starter. As a starter, Wolfe will be exposed to left handed hitters more often, and odds are will get knocked around a lot more. Which is pretty much what happened in AAA. Wolfe had a 4.84 ERA as a starter (22 1/3 IP), and a 1.26 ERA as a reliever (14 1/3 IP). Small sample sizes, but when taken into account his struggles vs lefties it's not that surprising.

From this point forward, I think Wolfe should only be used as a reliever. And make no mistake, he should be one of the 7 members of next year's pen.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Frasor, Tallet, and Camp all need to be traded in the offseason. Frasor makes for a decent mop up pitcher, but he's starting to get expensive and there are a ton of better, younger and cheaper pitchers waiting for their chance. He does have some value - a 3.89 ERA, 109 ERA+, and a 1.31 WHIP. Those aren't great numbers, but some team could give up a decent prospect for him. Tallet has been pretty solid this year too, with a 3.27 ERA, 130 ERA+, but an ugly 1.37 WHIP. Again, he's another guy who's going to get expensive, and we have the depth to cover him when he's gone. Camp is the least valuable of the 3, but he really doesn't have a spot going forward. Might as well get what we can for him.

So with those 3 gone, you're looking at a bullpen that includes these names: Ryan, Downs, League, Carlson. I'm not going to bother talking about them much, since it's pretty obvious if they're healthy and on the team that they're locks for the pen. That pen is looking a little light on right handed relief, so Wolfe should easily get a place in the pen. So who would be a good fit for the remaining spots?

If Casey Janssen is ready to go, he could always be a good option. Some would like to see him as a starter - count me down as one of them. But if McGowan is healthy, I don't see a spot available without kicking out Litsch or Purcey. And that's only if/when AJ leaves, and assuming the Jays don't pick anybody up in free agency (for those that hadn't heard yet, JP plans on "staying pat"). So Janssen is most likely headed to the bullpen.

Davis Romero is a favourite of mine - he would be outstanding vs lefties, and this year he has shown the ability to get out right handed bats. He could probably take over Tallet's role.

A lot of fans want to see Brett Cecil pitch - and while I want him to be up here ASAP, he just isn't ready yet. In 6 AAA starts, he has a 4.11 ERA, and is slightly under 2:1 for his K:BB rate. He needs a bit more seasoning before he's ready. And he's too valueable to be wasted as a relief pitcher at this point in his young career.

Scott Richmond is another option who could be used in the pen. I've been a bit unfair to him in the past, but he did pretty well for himself in the majors. Strictly looking at the stats, he struck out 13 and walked 1 in 16 innings - that's pretty damn good. His FIP was 2.84, which is remarkable. He did allow 23 hits in 16 innings, but his 407 BAPIP just isn't sustainable. Yes, his LD rate was high at 23.6, but if I did my math right that only means his BAPIP should be around 350, not 407. Another thing to keep in mind, is that while he allows a ton of hits, he isn't walking anybody. So he might be able to succeed because he's not giving up many free passes. Over a full season his WHIP might be around 1.30, similar to Litsch. But that's just a guess on my part.

I think I let my hate on for the Olympic bullshit get in the way of looking at Richmond fairly. I think he deserves another chance, and that if given that chance he could do a really good job. In my opinion, he should be competing for a spot in next years rotation, and if that fails, he should be the first guy chosen to replace a starter if someone gets injured. If McGowan isn't ready next year, I'd be all for Richmond starting in his place.

I almost forgot to add him to the list, but assuming there's no long-term injury problems Jeremy Accardo should be a lock for the pen. He struggled this year, but I think he can rebound a bit. He won't be as good as the 07 season, but he isn't this bad.

Alright, so with all of the above options to choose from, this is how I see it going down when the dust settles. Ladies and gentlemen, Twitchy's picks for the 2009 bullpen are:

BJ Ryan, Scott Downs, Brandon League, Jesse Carlson, Jeremy Accardo, Brian Wolfe, and Casey Janssen.

Wow. If everybody's healthy that's just unfair. I mean, Davis Romero and Scott Richmond are still in AAA waiting as depth, both for starters and relievers, so it's not like the Jays really cripple their depth by trading away Frasor, Tallet and Camp. It probably won't happen, but I'd be all for BJ Ryan being traded. Don't get me wrong, he's a phenomenal closer, but look at that bullpen and tell me that BJ is needed at 10 million bucks. Assuming BJ is gone, Downs closes, League, Carlson, Wolfe, Accardo, and a recovering Janssen are more than enough depth, and have more than enough experience to handle the loss of Ryan. Davis Romero could join the bullpen as a loogy, and I don't think the team would suffer too much.

Heck, with the 10 million saved by trading BJ, you could afford to go after a big name bat (Burrell, for example) to slot in as the DH.

I realize trading Ryan isn't a popular idea, as our friends at Tao argued, but considering the strength of our bullpen and the options we have available I think trading BJ Ryan in the offseason would be a clever move. It would be a sign that the Jays trust the depth of their bullpen, and want to take advantage of it. The 10 million dollars could be better spent elsewhere - the bullpen won't see a huge drop in effectiveness, but there's a huge difference between putting Matt Stairs or a not so ready Travis Snider at DH compared to a slugging behemoth like Burrell.

While it's difficult to predict how a reliever will pitch year to year, it's looking like the pen will remain a strength heading into next year. It's up to JP (or whoever is the GM in the offseason...I'm available in case you're wondering Mr. Rogers) to take advantage of this.

Twitchy.

Farm Report: First Basemen

Before I get started, let me remind you again that these lists are designed to be as inclusive as possible. There are legitimate prospects on each and also fringe players with little chance. If a player is not listed it is because that players was so old for his level that his results prove nothing, or because he is on the short-season level and not highly drafted and is thus too difficult to get a proper read on. Trust me, you have plenty of time to learn about any promising member of the Auburn Doubledays or the GCL Blue Jays.

We begin our survey of the Jays minor league system, as promised, with first base. This is a position which, before 2008, was perhaps the most barren wasteland of the Jays system. It is still by no means deep, but at least one can actually make a list, which would have been tough to do last year at this time. As with all these positional lists, I will rank the players (based on my judgment alone) and give you a brief idea of what you can expect from the player.
Ages listed are as of April 1, 2009.

1. David Cooper - Age - 22 / 6'1", 210 / 1st Round 2008

The Jays selected the sweet-swinging 1B with the 17th overall pick of the 2008 draft after missing out on two other players they were thought to be interested in. Cooper has not disappointed and the 21-year-old left-handed hitter obliterated pitching at Auburn and Lansing before receiving an early August promotion to Dunedin. The book on Coop coming out of the draft was that he had an “advanced bat” and speculation was that he would move rapidly. He has. His bat was said to hold the promise of 30 HR power by some and there’s been no reason to doubt that assessment. In addition, he’s displayed a very good eye at the plate with an impressive BB:K ratio.

Cooper’s production, especially in terms of power, has slowed a bit with his latest promotion but August fades are not uncommon during a player's first pro season; Cooper has played some 70 games more than he has previously played in one season. His defense is said to be just average, but not a liability. Cooper has the potential to advance so quickly as to join Travis Snider in forcing the Jays’ hand about 1B by the end of next season, but with Overbay signed for two more years they have the luxury of promoting him more slowly. At this point, it’s hard not to be excited about the young man’s potential but it’s not unreasonable that higher level pitching might give him some difficulty, either.

Still, it’s impossible not to envision a Jays offense built around Lind, Snider, and Cooper in the early part of the next decade. Cooper will no doubt be a consensus Top 5 prospect for the Jays when the spring lists come out.

Stats:

In Dunedin: .304 - .373 - ..435 - .807 (92 ab)

Composite : .333 - .389 - .502 - .901

ETA: late 2010 / Spring 2011

2. Brian Dopirak - Age - 25 / 6'4", 235 / 2nd Round, 2002

Six months ago things looked pretty bleak for a guy who was ranked #21 on Baseball America’s 2005 Top 100 list. The 2nd round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 2002 had, up to that listing, met with unbroken success. In 2004 he had hit 39 homers and driven in 120 runs in 137 games at low-A Lansing (then a Cubs affiliate). But in 2005 while at Hi-A Daytona the right-hander’s slugging percentage crashed by over 200 points. Promoted anyway to AA in 2006, Dopirak suffered a foot injury and played only 53, undistinguished, games and hitting only ONE home run.. Back at Daytona in 2007 he recovered some of his past ability and was promoted mid-season to AA where he again failed miserably. At the end of spring training 2008, Dopirak was unceremoniously dumped.

It’s still unclear if the Jays spotted something they liked, or if Dopirak’s agent approached the team about signing him since Dunedin is the player’s hometown. I have yet to find any evidence that suggests that the signing was done for anything more than organizational filler, though.

Boy, some filler.

Dopirak regained his former power this year (in a league with a reputation for suppressing power numbers) and pounded high-A pitching for 27 home runs before his belated promotion to AA in August. Both his power, and his plate discipline are back where they were in 2004. Now, it is true that Dopirak was on his third pass through the FSL, and it’s true he’s older than the league average (but by only six months). It’s also true that he has yet to provide extensive proof that he can handle AA (and higher) pitching. But he’s no Vito, or Josh Kreuzer. He has a record of success that has to be considered. Dopirak is, if I am not mistaken, going to be a minor league free agent and the Jays will have to take steps to retain him, but I cannot believe that even if skeptical, they will let him walk away. He should begin 2009 in AA and advance as far and as fast as his bat will take him. Odds are Cooper will pass him by next season, but there won’t be a conflict because Dopirak is said to be a less than competent 1B and if he makes the majors it will be as a DH.

In N.H.: .287 - .297 - .425 - .722 (87 ab)

Comp. : .304 - .368 - .550 - .919

ETA: 2011

3. Michael McDade - Age - 19 / 6'2", 250 / 6th round 2007

The former catcher who was moved out to 1B because of his “Fielder-esque” body is reported to have prodigious power potential but real trouble staying in playing shape. The comparison that comes to mind is a shorter Calvin Pickering. But the expected power production is not evident in the stats as yet. The Jays started him at Lansing this year but he was struggling when the short-season team at Auburn started up, so the big switch-hitter was backed up to the lower level. In 176 at-bats there, he’s only managed a .375 slugging percentage. Indications are strong at this point that the only way he’s going to tap his power potential and get his career on track is to get serious about conditioning. Odds are better than even he won’t make it.

at Auburn: .267 - .328 - .375 - .703

ETA: likely never, certainly not before 2013

4. Adam Amar - 23 / 6'4", 240 / Undrafted, signed in spring 2008

Despite holding several offensive records at the University of Memphis, and being an All-American selection during his collegiate career, a less than impressive senior season left Amar without a call on draft day 2007. Convinced by former big-leaguer Frank Viola that he could play at the next level, Amar spent time in two different Indy leagues in 2007 before catching the eye of the Jays and the Phillies. Amar signed with the Jays before the start of the 2008 season and was assigned to short-season Auburn. For much of the season Amar led the NYP league in the triple crown categories but all three seem out of reach at this point. Still, his .927 OPS is second in the league. McDade has been getting the starts at 1B while Amar serves as the DH. It’s unclear if that is because it’s McDade who needs to work on defense, or because Amar has even less skill there.

The Vito Factor definitly applies here. A player of Amar’s age SHOULD excel in short season ball. He will need to be in Lansing next year and advance quickly to prove he has a promising future. Right now, it would be foolish of any fan to have high expectations that Amar is going to contribute to the Jays in the future.

In Auburn: .319 - .377 - .509 - .886

ETA: if you are optimistic enough to think he’ll make it, 2013 maybe.

5. Chip Cannon - 27 / 6'5', 215 / 8th round, 2004

This former two-way player was once a prodigious slugger (he posted an incredible .830 slugging percentage in 112 at bats at Dunedin in 2005) but the last three years have seen his HR output drop from 27, to 17, to 5. The guy is a great story, making it that far in pro-baseball with club feet is highly admirable. But unless he figures out upper level pitching, or goes back to the mound (he had a nice line in the Appy league in his first pro season before giving up pitching), he looks very unlikely to ever stick in the major leagues.

So, there you have it. It’s still not a deep position, but three of those guys were not even with the Jays a year ago and one of the other two was a catcher. Look for Cooper’s development to set the agenda for the system. He’ll probably open the season at Dunedin and move to AA early in the season. Dopirak will probably start at AA New Hampshire and hope to hit well enough to advance to AAA when Cooper moves up, if not he’ll simply shift to DH.

Amar will face competition at Lansing if we can put stock in JP’s recent comments about Balbino Fuenmayor (whom he inferred would move across the diamond from 3B at some point), but will certainly be at Lansing either as a 1B or DH. McDade hasn’t earned a promotion and likely has to turn on the jets next year or find himself in the unemployment line. Cannon will be blessed if the Jays continue to employ him in AAA.

Next list - Second Basemen.

~WillRain