Playoff Predictions - Griffin style

So I was reading The Toronto Star when I came across another brilliant Griffin article, in which he eventually makes some position by position comparison of the Rays & Red Sox. I didn't have a problem with some of his results - Navarro beating out Varitek, Rays winning out in the corners infield, but after that it started to take a turn for the worse. I'll let him explain.

Middle infield: The Sox have Jed Lowrie and MVP candidate Dustin Pedroia, while the Rays duo is the reliable Jason Bartlett and Akinori Iwamura. Advantage Rays.

Say what? You just said that Pedroia's an MVP candidate, and Lowrie was solid - and they get beaten out by Bartlett and Iwamura? Bartlett had an 85 OPS+, and Iwamura had a 96 OPS+, while playing solid defense. The Sox duo had a 123 OPS+ (Pedroia) and 91 OPS+ (Lowrie), while also playing very good defense. So how exactly did Griffin's own suggestion for MVP of the league get beaten out by John McDonald Jr. and a solid but unspectacular 2B?

Outfield: The Sox have Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew vs. the Rays trio of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Gabe Gross or Rocco Baldelli. Advantage Sox.

I'll give them Jason Bay, but Ellsbury isn't that impressive and it's unknown if Drew is going to play because of back injuries which means more time for Crisp. Meanwhile, CC is healthy, Upton's finally showing some power because his shoulder isn't hurt, and Gross/Baldelli make a solid tandem in RF. Normally a Bay/Ellsbury/Drew outfield would win here, but Drew is injured and I think the edge has to go to the Rays here.

Starters: The Sox trio – Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Dice-K Matsuzaka – has been there before. The Rays trio of James Shields, Matt Garza and Scott Kazmir is very talented but inexperienced in October. Advantage Sox.

Normally I'd agree, but Lester is pitching in game 3, so he's going to make at best 2 starts in the playoffs. Beckett is coming off a rough start, and hasn't shown he's the dominating force from last year. And Dice-K just isn't very good. And with this being a 7 game series, I think you have to include Wakefield & Sonnanstine. Once again, depth and health for the Rays gives them a bit of an advantage in the rotation. If Beckett was healthy and productive it's a different story, but he's an unknown at this point.

Bullpen: The back end of the Sox pen is rock solid with Jonathan Papelbon, set up by Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterton. Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and Chad Bradford must steel their nerves to succeed, although Wheeler did set up for the Astros in October a couple of years back. Advantage Sox.

First off, one of the key relievers for the Rays is JP Howell, and not Chad Bradford. Howell and Balfour pitched the Rays out of some huge jams against the White Sox (especially that bases loaded escape job by Balfour), and outside of the Jays I think the Rays have one of the best bullpens in the majors. Hell, during the regular season the Rays bullpen ERA (3.55), WHIP (1.26) and opponents OPS (669) was much better than the Sox were at 4.00, 1.35 and 707 respectively.

Based on these stats, I think it's really hard to argue the Sox have a better bullpen here. Masterson was a nice addition, but I don't think he's a shutdown set up man, and he wasn't very strong during the series against the Angels. So if anything, the Red Sox bullpen will be a liability, and not the Rays.

The Sox had a better run differential this season, but I think the Rays have a big advantage now thanks to their health. If Beckett, Lowell, Drew and even Ortiz are all healthy I think the Sox win. But with so many injured guys, the Rays have a real shot of making the World Series.

Damn, I never thought I'd say that....

Twitchy.

AFL Brief

They told him to go down and work on taking some walks, but he socks a two-run dinger off Phillies farmhand Tyson Brummet instead to provide the margin of victory in a 7-5 Desert Dogs win over the Solar Sox yesterday. It's hard to stay mad at JP Arencibia.

None of the Jays pitchers worked, but Scott Campbell did get into the game as a defensive replacement... at third? Probably not worth reading too much into this, he has played a dozen games at the hot corner through three pro seasons.

-- Johnny Was

AFL Report

The Phoenix Desert Dogs and their contingent of Blue Jays prospects kicked off Arizona Fall League action yesterday afternoon, falling 3-2 to the Mesa Solar Sox. There's no particular reason for you to care about how the team fares as a whole, but I'll keep you updated on the progress of JP Arencibia, Scott Campbell, Ryan Patterson, Kyle Ginley, Zach Dials and Daryl Harang (yes, he is Aaron's brother).

On that note: Arencibia went 0-2 with a K, Patterson K'd in a pinch hit AB, and Campbell came into the game to pinch run but didn't get a chance to hit. None of the Jays pitchers threw. Done and dusted.

The AFL is considered to be a finishing school for advanced prospects and it was there that local mancrush Dave Purcey served notice in 2007 that the "bust" projections were premature. Each of the aforementioned Jays prospects has something integral to their development to work on: Arencibia needs to start working counts and taking walks, Campbell's looking to rebound from nagging late season injuries, Patterson's looking to show he hasn't stalled at AA, Ginley needs to work on his secondary stuff and succeed against more advanced hitters after some scuffles at A+ ball, Dials is looking to get more innings in, and Harang needs to get those walks down.

Good luck, all.

Related coolness from tomorrow's paper:

Baseball New Zealand has no objection to 2B Scott Campbell suiting up for Canada at the the World Baseball Classic this spring. This is a great news for Campbell, whose tenuous biological link to Canada is roughly on par with Mike Piazza's to Italy, if for no other reason than Canada's first round WBC games will be played at the Rogers Centre in early March. I'm well-chuffed when it comes to international baseball in general, so this is an added bonus for fans who like to keep tabs on Jays prospects. And frankly, haven't we all seen enough of Stubby Clapp for one lifetime?

-- Johnny Was

First of many pointless AJ Burnett updates

So great is its sense of entitlement that Yankeesdom is already anticipating the arrival of AJ Burnett before he's even opted out of his contact with the Jays. We knew the drama was going to start soon, but mercifully it shouldn't drag on too long if Burnett's agent, Darek Braunecker, is to be believed.

Like many of you, I will be kind of sad to see AJ go and would like to be able to cheer him on for whatever organization he signs on with next (please let it be the Braves). As much schaudenfraude as I'd get from seeing him sign a mega deal with the Yankees and then break down a la Carl Pavano, let's hope we don't have to cheer for that scenario.

Remember that most of us hoped that Ted Lilly would stick around at the end of 2006 despite his punch-up with Gibbons and expected the 2007 rotation to be weak as a kitten without him. Making a fearless prediction here and now that we'll come through this stronger in the end after AJ leaves, all things considered.

-- Johnny Was

Reinforcments have arrived

The Jays recently acquired Dirk Hayhurst from waivers off of San Diego. He`s a 27 year old right handed pitcher who can start or pitch in relief. He spent most of his time in AAA, where he was a reliever. This year in 84 innings of AAA (10 as a starter) Hayhurst was 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He had 98 strikeouts and 28 walks, which is an impressive 3.5:1 K:BB ratio. He had a solid home run rate, with his only flaw being he`s a flyball pitcher. Not an extreme flyball pitcher, but one nonetheless.

Hayhurst spent a little time in the majors, but while he was up he was pretty brutal. It was only 16 innings, but it would have made the 2006 Josh Towers look good.

According to FanGraphs, he throws an 89 MPH fastball, a curve, slider & change up. The curve sounds like his go to pitch (he used it 25% of the time, the most of any secondary pitch), although he spent a bit of time in relief which explains him sticking with 2 pitches. The slider was more of a "show me" type pitch, as he didn't use it very often, while his change is probably his third best pitch.

I should note that all the Fangraph numbers were taken in the majors, where he pitched 16 innings. I couldn't find his minor league numbers as far as pitch percentage or speed goes, but I don't think that it would be a significant difference.

His minor league numbers this year are quite impressive, especially when you realize he spent his time in the PCL, a known hitters league. Hayhurst was pretty disappointing in his first stint in the majors, but maybe down the line he could surprise as a reliever in the pen.

Normally I`d be a little more enthusiastic about a reliever with good minor league stats, even if the major league performance is less than desirable. Unfortunately, Kevin Towers is a normally a very good judge of talent when it comes to pitching, and with an 89 MPH fastball it`s hard to imagine the 27 year old Hayhurst being successful. Still, I`d love to see him succeed and be the Carlson of 09.

He`ll probably start the year in AAA, and we shouldn`t expect to see him in the majors unless a wave of injuries occur. As of right now the Jays have too much depth in the bullpen for Hayhurst to be anything other than a 7th man in the pen.

Twitchy.

Farm Report: Catchers

Continuing my series of posts looking at the Jays' best prospects, position-by-position, I come to the offensive position at which the Jays enjoy the most depth. So well stocked are the Jays here that (a) they dealt their former top prospect at the position in August; and (b) this list will be more than five players long. But that doesn't mean that all these players are sure fire major leaguers. After the top two, there are question marks about the rest, but at least they are players with something that makes them notable, not always the case at other positions.

It would not be fair to make this list without mentioning the departed Robinzon Diaz. Diaz first caught the eye of prospect watchers at the age of 19 when he posted a .929 OPS in under 200 ABs. Since then his OPS has consistently fluctuated in the low-to-mid .700's and he's never posted over 4 HR in a season or more than 25 XBH. He doesn't walk or strike out much. His high regard as a prospect has always been "potential" and not results. If I'm not making this clear - let me: he was always over-rated as a prospect and we will NOT miss him. Cool name or no.

Now, on with the list.

1. JP Arencibia - 23, 6'1" 215, 2007 1st round

Few prospects, beyond Travis Snider, have captured the imagination of Jays fans like JPA. That's probably more a reflection of just how very bad this franchise has been at developing productive offensive catchers than it is the potential all-star abilities Arencibia may or may not have. If you go back and remind yourself that Ernie Whitt was an expansion draftee, and Pat Borders was a very bad hitter his whole career (except one very important week) then you realize the Greg Myers is the only even decent hitter at the position the Jays have ever produced. JP Arencibia stands to be potentially the best ever in this weak field.

The book on him out of Tennessee was that he was a great power hitter to all fields, but that his defense was very much a work in progress. As a pro he's been everything the Jays could have wanted as a hitter, and more - though he definitely has work to do on pitch recognition. Behind the plate, he's gotten much praise for the speed at which his defense has improved. He was always rated as having a strong arm, while his footwork was said to be poor. The Jays thought that was a teachable skill and so far they are impressed. Still, it's not impossible that JPA might eventually be tried at the hot corner if the Jays' 3B prospects falter and their other catchers impress. But there's no indication any such effort is remotely under consideration now. The Jays seem to think he'll be an at least competent major league defender, such that you can keep his prolific bat behind the plate where its value is maximized.

That said, Jays fans are perhaps a tad bit ahead of themselves on being impressed with his bat.

YES, Arencibia hit 27 home runs between Dunedin and AA this year. But his .798 OPS at AA was not a ready-for-prime-time result. Jays fans seem to think that JPA will start 2009 in AAA and be on the bubble to get promoted to the majors at any time. I disagree. I think, especially in light of the Jays now fielding a AAA team in the Pacific Coast League, that Arencibia will spend the first couple of months in AA and if he performs well there, then get the promotion to AAA. Be prepared to be impressed with his numbers in the hitter friendly PCL, but don't let that fool you into thinking JPA is the next Mike Piazza. He MAY be, but much less impressive major leaguers had nice power numbers in the minors. None other than Rod Barajas hit 23 HR in High-A ball at 22. So be optimistic, hope for an All-Star, of course. But also be prepared to accept him as a good mid-range offensive catcher, like for instance a faster Benji Molina.
And don't count on him being a regular major leaguer until 2010.

ETA: September 2009

2. Brian Jeroloman - 24, 6'0" 195, 2006 6th round.

In many ways, Jeroloman is the polar opposite of Arencibia. His defensive is superlative, such that many said he would have been among the best in the majors two years ago. His offense, however, was and is a work in progress. That said, the improvements in Jero's bat parallel those in JPA's defense. The one offensive skill Jeroloman has in spades is exactly the one Arencibia yet lacks - the ability to draw the free pass. In 2007, Jeroloman drew an astounding 85 walks in 100 games at Dunedin. For a hitter who only delivered 17 XBH in those 100 games that's just nuts. In 2008, Jeroloman increased his slugging percentage and lost very little of his OBP, but he's still never going to be an impressive hitter.

As a major league starter, you'd be thinking Brad Ausmus, or Brian Schneider, or Mike Matheny, only with a better OBP. But he's also - like the aforementioned - the kind of guy who can have a long major league career even if he never puts bat on ball in an impressive fashion because his glove is just that good. Depending on who the Jays sign to back up Barajas, and how that person works out in 2009, you could see Jeroloman as the back-up for the Jays as early as mid-season in 2009, but when Arencibia is ready, his bat is likely to carry him into the starting role and if Jeroloman remains with the Jays, it will be in the reserve role.

ETA: July/August 2009

3. Curtis Thigpen - 26, 5'11" 190, 2004 2nd round

For the last three consecutive years, Baseball America ranked Thigpen among the Jays top 10 prospects. He was never regarded as a potential all-star, but he seemed a safe bet to be a decent contributor to the Jays future. After his 2008 season, we can safely predict that Thigpen won't be on anyone's top prospect list. While his 2007 season wasn't up to his previous standards, most thought it was the sort of decline some players - especially catchers - tend to have in their first pass at AAA. But his 2008 was about as bad an offensive year as he could have possibly had and without significant injury. His OPS in Syracuse was a miserable .577 and he was consistently poor throughout the season. That said, Cito Gaston was reasonably impressed with his defense, and there's a reasonable possibility that Thigpen could open the season as Barajas' caddy. There is a not insubstantial possibility that the Jays' three-headed hitting coach crew will be able to figure out how to get Thigpen up to at least a marginal level with the bat.

ETA: 2009

4. Joel Collins - 23, 6'1" 195, 2007 10th round

Collins is a bit of a mystery. Every report I've seen on him says hes got skills on both sides of the ball, yet the Jays kept him at short season Auburn almost the entire season where he was clearly not being challenged offensively (he had a .913 OPS) and often he found himself as the DH in favor of other players. On the one hand, you want to believe the good reports, on the other, you can't ignore that he was pretty much the same age as Arencibia and still in short-season ball. Compounding the situation is the fact that the promotions throughout the system turn off of the needs of Arencibia. That means that traffic backs up behind him and that's not good for any prospect that needs to be challenged. Still, Collins HAS to be at Lansing to start the season and it'd be in his best interests to be in Dunedin before the end of the year.

IF he makes the majors, he'll be a marginal back-up unless he makes a very surprising development.

ETA: late 2012/early 2013

5. Jonathan Talley - 20, 6'4, 220, 2007 13th round

The left-handed hitting Talley hit for noticeable power in rookie ball, but his K rate was way too high. He's said to be a pretty good fielder but it's an easy observation that he's big for a catcher. My guess would be that if Talley progresses well enough with his bat, the day will come when he finds himself a first baseman. It'll be interesting to see how he hits at Lansing next year. In fact, it'll be interesting to see where he plays given the need for Collins to be behind the plate and the equally pressing need to see other prospects at 1B.

6. Jon Jaspe - 24, 5'11" 200, signed as undrafted FA in 2003

The Venezuelan switch hitter was also a bit old for his level, even for a catcher, but he was having a breakout offensive season with the bat before an August swoon. It's hard to say to what extent August "normalized" his production, and to what extent he can be judged to have become an offensive prospect based on the rest of his season (he had an .850 OPS as of July 31). This was an important season for Jaspe as he was handed a 50 game steroid ban in 2007 and he needed to prove his pop was legit. On the other hand, I've not found much information about the quality of the man's defense.

Jaspe will be In Dunedin to start the season, I suspect, but there will be some competition for playing time with the next man on our list, who's half a step ahead of Jaspe on the organizational ladder. One of the two would like to be the guy who gets to go to AA when Arencibia moves up to Las Vegas. It's hard to get a read on what kind of major leaguer Jaspe will be, but I think it's legitimate to call him a prospect.

ETA: 2012

7. Matt Liuzza - 25, 5'11" 220, 2006 19th round

Liuzza is ranked this low for the sole reason that he was too old for his level by any measure. On sheer ability, he may be the third best catcher in the system, but it's hard to get a read on a 24 year old who split his season in two levels of A Ball. Still, the right-handed hitting Liuzza posted a .789 OPS at Lansing before a late July promotion to Dunedin where he started slow for a week or so before closing out like gangbusters - posting an .815 OPS in August at the higher level, that mostly due to the fact that he drew 15 walks in 20 games. An on-base skill level he had not previously exhibited. So a healthy degree of skepticism about the man's hitting ability is warranted. Still, he was voted the best defensive catcher by the coaches in the MWL so he's not without talent.

All things considered, however, Liuzza gives the impression of being the next Eric Kratz. His ceiling may be in the Ken Huckaby/Jason Phillips category of player.

ETA: perhaps a series of brief call-ups starting in 2013

I'll also mention in passing that the Jays drafted a catcher in the 9th round of the 2008 draft named Antonio Jimenez who was said to be a mild steal for that low a pick. that said, I do not know enough about the Puerto Rican to give you much more than this - he was BA's 200th ranked player going into the draft, with the potential to move higher, but for an elbow injury just before the draft. He's one to watch next season.

Next time - Outfielders

~WillRain

Softly softly, catchy monkey

Pat Gillick, eh? Why not? I'm sure he's already got his own retro jersey.

Being serious now.

Away from The Southpaw I'm a grad student closing in on PhD in history, where I specialize in 20th Century international relations and American foreign policy. Every year I mark dozens of exams where undergrads try to spew out everything they memorized during the cram session the night before regardless of whether it's coherent or appropriate to the question.

That's what happened tonight in America.

Well, McCain still has Macedonia in his back pocket.

JW

You Go, Gibby, and . . . stuff.

I know the Drunks have already commented on this - I'm kind of ashamed of myself how slow I am to break the latest story lately - but given that I have such a high level of contempt for the notion that John Gibbons was a bad manager, I take a lot of satisfaction in pointing to Jeff Blair's blurb today that Gibby is under consideration for employment on the staff of both the Padres and the Rangers.

I am sure there's a great number of malcontents in the Jays fan base who were certain he'd never work in the majors again, perhaps even they were happy to think that this would be true. Sometimes I think sports fans can be unreasonably vindictive and nasty and this is one of those times.

I, for one, hope Gibby gets the San Diego job and that if the ax happens to fall on Bud Black that he get's another crack at major league managing. And I think he'll do a bang up job.

* * * * *

ESPN'S Buster Olney writes on the quality starting pitching potentially available in trade. For all the speculation about the Jays needing to sign a front end SP, I don't see anything on the free agent market that impresses me enough to pay the prices they will cost. In my opinion, a well done trade (which, despite the flack he takes, has been JP's strongest suit on the whole) will bring us a better solution than the FA market, assuming of course, we can find the right players to send in return without sacrificing our future. I think we can all agree that Snider is a keeper and that almost no available starter is worth including Cecil or Arencibia. Beyond that though, everyone - including Adam Lind - should be negotiable.

As explained at MLBTR, Olney mentions specifically Jake Peavy, Zach Greinke, Matt Cain, and Edwin Jackson. Jackson may have upside but he's not now a front end guy, nor would the Rays want to help a division rival, so I'll disregard him. Tim speculates that Greinke, with 2 years left, would command a package similar to the Bedard deal of a year ago. He mentions specifically middle infield, catcher, and center field as places of interest though you know the Royals always need pitching. One wonders how much proximity to the majors matters to the Royals, and whether something like Romero/Campbell/Jeroloman might be in the ballpark?

Peavy, only 27, is, of course, one of the best pitchers in the game, and signed long term to a team-friendly deal (with a no trade clause that would need compensating for - though he has publicly complained about the direction of the Pads). He makes only $8 million next season and then jumps to 15,16,and 17 the following three years and there's a $22 million option for 2013 with a four million buyout. In other words, if AJ Burnett took the offer the Jays have reportedly made, they would pay him $54 million over the next four years, if they had Peavy they would pay him at least $60 million over the next four years even if they bought out the option year.
Which would YOU rather do?

That said, the cost for Peavy would be Haren/Santana level. Can the Jays pull that off? The first thing you'd have to do is put Adam Lind on the table. The Padres would of course ask for Snider but they'd have to know that a team almost never trades it's #1 guy. Then, you have to come off Cecil I think. I love him as much as anyone but the Padres are going to need a high upside pitcher who's close to the majors. But I'd try REAL hard to sell them on Purcey instead, even if I had to include something extra in the deal. Simply because of their relative ages. To that, you have to add probably three more guys. One guy out of our catching depth seems likely, probably one other SP (maybe someone like Ginley?) and a "toolsy" throw in. Would you do that? I'm inclined to say yes. It's true that Cecil might be very good, but when you think about a 2010 rotation of Doc/Peavy/Marcum/McGowan/whoever, that's drool worthy.

One alternative her might be to agree to take on Khalil Greene's contract in return for them taking Purcey over Cecil and Lind over Snider - assuming they consider Greene to have negative value which I'm not certain they do.

That leaves Matt Cain. Tim speculates his value falls somewhere between Peavy and Greinke since you'd be getting three years of him, which is probably true (albeit the next three years of Cain cost less in dollars than Peavy even with Peavy's friendly deal). I think though, that you'd have to wait on the Giants to sort out the potential for deals like the speculated "Cain for Fielder" deal to pass first. with the Giants though, we'd get to hold onto more of our young pitching. they need bats. Start with Lind and Campbell and pad it out from there. This probably depends more on what other teams offer. I'm wondering what a guy like Arnsberg would do to polish Cain's amazing stuff. Is Sabean so stupid that we could get him to take Overbay and another minor leaguer and let us keep Lind? I doubt it...but I'd sure lead with that if I were making an offer.

* * * * *

There's some discussion around the boards and blogs of potential "scrap heap" signings the Jays might make to supplement their rotation next year. The term is kind of misleading since what we are really talking about is guys who have enough risk associated with them that you might get them on a one year or one-plus-one contract. There are probably more names than anyone can list off the top of their heads, but here's a decent list for your consideration:

Mike Hampton
Mark Mulder (probably won't be ready)
Eric Milton (status unknown)
Kris Benson
Matt Clement (status unknown)
Bartolo Colon
Jason Jennings
Pedro Martinez
Carl Pavano
Brad Penny (Dodgers are reportedly going to decline his option)
Mark Prior
Freddie Garcia

The names that interest me here are Martinez (highest upside, IMO, but was very ordinary down the stretch when ostensibly healthy) Garcia (maybe slightly safer choice since he actually pitched in the majors). Prior (who I would assume would be loyal to his home town team) and, as much as I hate to say it, Bartolo Colon who pitched well in seven starts for the BoSox this year. He might have pitched well enough though, to have pitched his way out of the one-year-deal crowd.

Still, if we could do a one-plus-one with Colon he might be the ideal guy to plug into Marcum's spot.

Food for thought in any case.

~WillRain

What Might Have Been

So much for the magical season.

Yes, that was me who wrote in March that this was THE year. So it's a very bittersweet conclusion to the season for me. It's not as bad as being a Mets fan right now, I'm sure, but I can't help but look back at this season and feel more than the usual level of frustration.

JW and Twitch have already contributed solid "look back" posts and I don't want to "plow the same ground", so this is more just a random thoughts post... clearing out some things that don't really warrant their own separate topics.

JP Ricciardi - Volumes have and will be written on this subject, not a little of it by me. For now I will only say that I did not need the ten game streak to convince me he deserved to be back. I could see an argument for firing him based on his lack of PR skills - at one time conceded he probably needed to go on that basis alone - but the more I considered it the more I concluded that his player personnel work was satisfying to me. Obviously I would have loved to have seen the stars align for playoff baseball at some point, but short of that, I like this team a lot better than I did in the days of Steve Parris and Joey Hamilton and Raul Mondesi.

John Gibbons - I have no ill will about Gibbons either way. I still think he could very easily be a successful manager some day. Nor do I resent how long it took to fire him. I'm open to the idea that he should have lost his job in the off-season or during last season if you would argue that injuries don't matter, but I also think it's reasonable he got a mulligan on that. But once this season started, I don't see another more obvious time when he should have been fired. That 20-10 run in May made it pretty hard to let him go before he was. Likewise, I have no beef that he was fired, clearly the mental burden of the losing spiral was out of control.

Cito Gaston - Mike Wilner says Gaston is the best manager in baseball between the end of one game and the start of the next, I think that's maybe a good way to recognize that what he brought to the team wasn't so much the new hitting coach or anything you can see "on paper" - rather he just knew how to make these guys believe in themselves again, or so it seems to me.

Alex Rios - No one on the team benefited more from Cito's arrival than Alex. While he still had his spacey moments, he clearly found something at the plate he had been missing. Here's his stat line before Cito and after Cito:

.270 .328 .372 .700 (in 71 games)
.308 .343 .533 .876 (in 84 games)

Rios' counting stats under Cito pro-rated to 162 games work out to 60 doubles, 23 HR, and 100 RBI. Impressive totals and consistent.

Vernon Wells - Vernon also got considerably better after Cito got here, but a straight attribution of that to Cito is more difficult because Vernon had more than one health issue this year. His season as a whole was impressive, hitting at a pace that would have accumulate 30 HR and well over 100 RBI over 162 games. But he finished very strong. Since he came off the DL the last time his OPS is .931 so that magnifies his "under Cito" line. But there's 44 games there and only 17 games between Cito's hiring and his next injury, so relative sample sizes and all that.

Here's the same comparison is with Rios above:

.279 .328 .443 .771 (47 games)
.316 .355 .537 .892 (61 games)

Scott Rolen - Obviously for me, this is the biggest disappointment of the 2008 season. I haven't been so excited about a new acquisition by the Jays since Roger Clemens and I was really hoping to see the classic Rolen on both sides of the ball. His glove was obviously as advertised, but we all know how the year went with the bat. At the close of play on June 30, Rolen had a line like this:

.288 .377 .474 .851

that in 59 games and with counting stats that pro-rated to 50 doubles and 16 HR. Then, from there until he went on the DL, it read like this:

.172 .291 .242 .533 (in 29 games)

After the DL trip, they said he would get a lot of rest and days off but he didn't. He also said he'd re-tooled his swing to save pressure on his shoulder. The results were impressive.

.298 .350 .532 .882

With counting stats that pro-rate to 48 doubles and 24 HR. I can't argue against the one who would say that Rolen can't be depended on for 2009, but irrational optimist that I am, I'm looking forward to a strong year from all three of these guys next season. Just as I was this season *shrug*.

Adam Lind - here's a bit of an odd converse to the foregoing. After being a monster for 1/3 of a season after his second recall (.943 OPS in 51 games) he faded badly in his last 31 games, posting a .555 ops. My first inclination was to think that perhaps it was too aggressive to hit him as high as 5th in the order, but his first 8 games in the five hole were very good. Still though, as impressive as his season was, it looks like there's still going to be some streakiness.

Travis Snider - Not going to say too much here - the kid was very impressive, but I certainly hope that circumstances afford us the opportunity to not have to count on him as a key cog next year. As much as sentiment says "he's ready!" it's really to irrational even for me to count on it.

Jesse Listch - Last year at this time I was perfectly willing to caution anyone who would listen that Jesse's secondary numbers screamed "fluke" and urge you to with skepticism indulge the notion that he was more than a fifth starter. But this year is different. His WHIP was down, his K rate was better, his BB/K rate was MUCH better. The interesting thing, though, is that after his recall, both his strikeouts and his walks went up, but his ERA and WHIP got much better. Listch posted a 1.92 ERA in the nine starts since his recall. I, for one, am no longer prepared to say Listch can't be a mid-rotation starter over the next several years.

I'm sure there's more observations I meant to make and haven't. The bottom line for me is this - I see a lot of resignation about next year from all quarters, and unlike last offseason I can't just whip out some numbers and explain it all away. There are simply too many variables (Rolen's bat, how well McGowan and Janssen recover being the main ones), but I'm not inclined to be down about next season. If - and it's a huge if - McGowan can come back to his best level by at least June, and if Janssen is fully recovered, I don't think a rotation of Doc, McG, Listch, Purcey, and Janssen will be an embarrassment down the stretch even if we don't add a starter (which I think is a given). I am still more worried about who our DH is next season than who the other SP is (in terms of on-the-field production). I'm going to be optimistic that if we put a Manny or even Giambi or Ibanez type hitter in at #4 that the heart of our lineup will be a perfectly capable crew. I can see this:

Scutaro
Hill
Rios
Manny/whoever
Wells
Lind
Rolen
Overbay
Barajas

Being just fine. I can see the pen being just fine of course. And I'm not as worried about the rotation as most. surprise surprise, eh? Still, I AM more worried about the opposition next year than I was coming into this season. I do think Tampa Bay is this year's version of last year's D'Backs or Rockies - no way they win high-90's again, but they won't be last place scrubs anymore and the Yanks will spend the budget of a small country to get back into contention. So there's no doubt we need good karma in place of the bad we've had in the past, but aren't we due some?

~WillRain

Twitchy's year end awards

First off, I just want to say that was a phenomenal post by Johnny. Really made me feel proud to be a part of this blog. Hell of a post.

Now, this is primarily a Jays blog, but I thought with the season coming to an end that I'd do my own set of awards. I don't think we'd be doing our duty as bloggers, or baseball fans, if we didn't at least throw in our 2 cents as to who were the best players in baseball this season. So let's get started!

AL MVP - Joe Mauer.

That's right, I'm not supporting Dustin Pedroia. First off, I can't stand that fuck. Or Youkilis, fucking asshole. But that's for another time....

I don't know where all this MVP bullshit support came from for "Pedroia the Destroya", but there's no way in hell I can support a 123 OPS+ player as MVP. No way. Yeah, he plays a key defensive position, but guess what? So does another guy on a (currently) first place team - Joe Mauer.

First off, Mauer has an identical OPS (330/415/454/869) to Pedroia (326/376/493/869). They went 1-2 in the AL for batting average, which is pretty impressive. That'll be Mauer's second batting award, something unheard of for a catcher. His 135 OPS+ kills Pedroia's 123. Even if you ignore the positional difference (Mauer obviously playing the more valuable one), he still beats Pedroia offensively.

The one problem with Mauer is that he's got about 100 less at bats than Pedroia. But to have a catcher play 145 games, while providing elite defense as a catcher (36.3% CS good enough for third in the AL and fourth overall) and posting a 135 OPS+ on offense, it's just tough not to pick him.

Hell, Morneau is getting more MVP votes than Mauer, and they both have the same OPS+! Mauer hit as well as an above average 1B, while doing a phenomenal job leading/handling a young pitching staff.

It's a shame that Mauer isn't getting any MVP support, because he was the most valuable player in the AL this year.

NL MVP - Albert Pujols. The best player in the game, Pujols posted a pedestrian 190 OPS+ while hitting 357/462/653. There were some pretty good players in the NL this year, but Pujols was the best of them. It's not even a contest here.

AL comeback player of the year - Milton Bradley. Cliff Lee was a good candidate for this, but I think Bradley had to overcome a lot more. He had a significant injury, and a lot of teams couldn't trust that he'd last the season, avoid injuries, or stay out of trouble.

Well, Bradley only played in 126 games, but he made the most out of them. Bradley hit 321/436/563 (163 OPS+) in one of the game's best lineups.

Kudos to Will who I believe suggested Milton Bradley as an option for the Jays. And congrats to Bradley, who had a terrific year and, in my opinion, is the comeback player of the year. He really showed what he's capable of, and he's very dangerous with a bat.

NL Comeback player of the year - Randy Johnson. There may be others who disagree with this pick, but Randy is a superstar who put his injuries behind him. Johnson threw 56 innings last year, but managed to start 30 this year, giving the D-Backs 184 incredible innings. He had a 3.91 ERA, and nearly a strikeout an inning. His return gave the Diamondbacks one of the scariest trios in the game - Brandon Webb, Danny Haren, and Randy Johnson. As much as we like to imagine a Doc/AJ/Marcum rotation in the playoffs, their's might even be better.

Welcome back Randy, and here's to hoping you get your 300th win next year.

AL Cy Young - Cliff Lee. Halladay pitched more innings, and faced tougher competition, but Lee had a hell of a year. 22-3, 2.54 ERA, 175 ERA+....you all know I love the good Doctor, but even he'd have to admit that Lee was the best pitcher in the AL this year.

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum. Bet you wish that Rios for Lincecum trade went through now, don't ya? While Rios hit 291/337/461, Lincecum only threw 227 dominant innings while striking out 265! He had a 164+ ERA+, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 2.62 ERA. Oh, and he went 18-5 on a Giants team that was 72-90. So Lincecum accounted for 25% of his teams wins.

Not that wins are important, but still. Lincecum is very deserving of the prized NL Cy Young award.

Rookie of the Year (AL) - Evan Longoria. Longoria was a huge reason why the Rays won this year (other than the pitching, the improved defense, the bullpen, and did I mention better pitching?), and the scary thing is he's only going to get better. Unless he takes advice from a former rookie of the year winner on the Rays, in which case he'll start being booed mercilessly by the Tampa Bay Heckler.

Longoria's a young, pre-shoulder damaged Scott Rolen - and by that I mean a gifted defender and an impact offensive player. Funny enough, Longoria's ZR was .010 behind Rolen, at 797.

Longoria hit 272/343/531, an impressive batting line for a 22 year old. Once he improves his plate discipline, and gains some more experience in the majors, he'll be an MVP candidate. For now, he'll have to settle for being my rookie of the year.

NL Rookie of the year - Geovany Soto - There were several good rookie candidates (Votto, Volquez, Jurrjens), but none as good as Soto. Geovany hit 285/364/504, while providing terrific defense behind the plate. He did a tremendous job with the pitching staff as well, and in my opinion, is one of the top 5 catchers in the game (the others being Mauer, McCann, Martin...and I'm probably forgetting someone).

Executive of the year - Doug Melvin. I know, a lot of people will take the "trendy" pick and go with the Rays, but I think Melvin deserves some praise. Getting CC when he did saved the Brewers season, and he made a lot of small moves that helped them out. He's going to get some good draft picks from CC and Sheets leaving in free agency, and so he gave up a slugging 1B (of which the Brewers have several) for a top tier starting pitcher.

Manager of the year - Ok, NOW I'm going with the "trendy" pick of Joe Maddon. Like the Rays or not, you can't deny he did a tremendous job leading that club. Yes, they had the talent, but Maddon got the most out of that talent.

Quick thoughts on the Jays

I'll expand on this as the off-season gets into full swing, but I'm getting the feeling the Jays are going to be in for a rough 2009. Like Johnny said in his last post, the window has essentially closed. Mortgaging the future, or trying to get a mid level starter is the worst possible move for a franchise that in 2010 could have any of Doc, Marcum, McGowan, Purcey, Litsch, Cecil, Janssen etc in the starting rotation. Most, if not all of whom will be cheaper and better than the replacements in 09 who will want a long term deal.

The Jays need to make the tough decision, bite the bullet, and retool so that they can win in 2010. That means BJ Ryan needs to be traded for prospects. Overbay should be traded as well if Cooper shows that he would be in the running for a spot in 2010 - of course, this hinges on Cooper's development and how well Overbay plays.

I hate to just give up on a season, but the best opportunity for the Jays to win is in 2010 and beyond. As Johnny said - Snider, Lind, Cooper, Cecil, Arencibia are the future, and we're going to need them up here to win. Hopefully JP will realize this, and make the right decisions.

By the way, Shana Tova and a Happy Rosh Hashanah.

Twitchy.

Requiem for a Season

Equal parts good, bad, and somewhere in between, it all comes to an end today, the Jays '09 season that we once anticipated with the impatience of children on Christmas Eve, in a pretty little ballpark in a grim little American city. Good and bad, yin and yang, that's the overly-simplified theme that runs through this rambling end-of-year thought bag.

Subheadings?

I'd like to begin with some comments from the periphery of the Jays community about what we do and why we do it. I'll admit that it's a bit odd, this hobby of ours, blogging for a bunch of anonymous strangers who share our addiction to all things related to this club. There's no pay, a surprising number of hours invested crunching numbers/searching out interesting material to pass along, and an equally shocking amount of scrutiny from a small army of critics.

There are times when I wonder whether it's worth the bother.... seeing as the time I spend here should probably be allocated to the writing I'm actually going to get paid for... but most of the time I can't wait to rush out of bed in the morning and get those ideas that had been swirling in my head down before they're forgotten. It defies explanation.

The three of us here have never met and probably never will, which probably makes us a bit unique in the Jays blogosphere. When I started playing fantasy baseball three years ago I was looking for a bit of an edge when a google search of "baseball rumors" led me to prosportsdaily.com and, indirectly, to the Jays board there. Over the span of a few months, Will, Twitchy and I bickered some, agreed more often than not, and slowly developed a mutual sense of respect.

And thus the blog was born, written by three guys who write in very different voices. This too is the end our first season. I'd like to think we did a good job despite being cromags when it comes to quite a few computer-related things, and that we will improve next year. But that assessment would be more meaningful coming from you, the readers, and I invite you to share your impressions with us.

The Best of the Bunch

So far as our colleagues are concerned, there's no denying that the most poignant words this year have come from the Tao of Stieb. Whether it was skewering a swarmy blowhard like Buzz Bissinger or rightfully tearing bandwagon fans a new one, ToS has established itself as the respected elder statesman of the the Jays blogosphere. Hat tip to you, sirs. You are a credit to this community.

The most hilarious, under-rated Jays commentary undeniably comes from the Ghostrunners, for whom I have an admiration that parallels Lloyd's mancrush on Rocco Baldelli. When I first started doing daily "roundups" here, I deliberately avoided reading any Jays blogs before I got through my own morning post to avoid repeating points made elsewhere. But then I got so hooked by the quirky posts and punk rock references that GoF had become the first thing I read in the morning, before my own blog even. These are indeed our Salad Days...

Jon Hale's work at The Mockingbird has always been required reading, though I secretly wish he had written more in the second half of the season...

Through their sophomore season the Drunk Jays Fans have kept on doing what it takes to draw staggering numbers of punters. They' ve also done a pretty fine job dealing with the raging assholes who seem to have descended on their comments section en masse in recent weeks. Seriously, what in the hell is wrong with people? Good on you, lads, and we all look forward to more of the same in the future; it's a winning formula. Should Stoeten be reading this, I will indeed buy you a pint (of something domestic, be reasonable) if we ever run into each other at the RC next season.

The Pros

Consuming mass quantities of writing on the Jays this year has led me to some conclusions, good and bad, on the usual suspects in the paid journalistic pack.

It starts with Mike Wilner, upon whom I tried to pin the nickname "The Oracle" at some point back in the spring. It didn't really stick, and he probably would've been uncomfortable with it anyway. Wilner's postgame show, JaysTalk, is required listening for fans lucid and otherwise, and the same goes for his oft-mentioned "blerg". Reading I mean, not listening, but you knew what I meant.

There's no denying that Wilner approaches his job with an unsurpassed degree of passion and dedication, even if I do find it somewhat quaint when he claims to be telling the objective truth when he's actually sharing an informed opinion. Wilner is frequently attacked (by mental midgits) for being a Rogers shill, which is unfair. The reality is that he comes across as perpetually optimistic because, like us, he's a fan at heart and none of this would be any fun if there wasn't hope for something better.

Jeff Blair at the Globe is the best baseball writer in the country, hands down. He's the wittiest, the most biting, and the most perceptive, but he's unable to contain his ambiguous relationship with the game, and a barely concealed indifference towards the Jays. I suppose we should expect as much from a prickly prairie boy who came up through the ranks covering the Expos. Blair is repected, but not liked. I strongly doubt he wants the adoration most Jays fans show Wilner, anyway.

As the Ghostrunners mentioned earlier in the week, Jordan Bastian of mlb.com truly needs to be unshackled. For the uninitiated, Bastian is like a super polite version of Wilner, equally intelligent and capable enough of writing quality material. Yet that talent is mostly wasted cranking out cookie cutter articles in the same vein as the Cosmo writer who does those identical "11 ways to please your man" articles every month. The Star or Sun would do well to bring Bastian on board when their crusty old vets retire.

Speaking of which, brief mention of the ubiquitous Richard Griffin. The saddest thing about Griff is that he actually does have a strength and writes feature pieces as well as any baseball writer in Canada. That's becoming a forgotten art, which is lamentable. For some reason his editors still allow him to expose his greatest weakness--a total ignorance of statistics that leads him to predictable, kneejerk opposition to each and every of JP's moves--rather than have him stick to what he does well. Maybe it's not all his fault and someone higher up the food chain should know better. I'm holding out some hope that Cathal Kelly will be better; early indications are that he's open-minded enough to watch and learn from his colleagues and plagiarize from more able bloggers...

The Team

Around here, Will is Mr. Even Keel, and that is to his credit, something I'm grateful for. I am not, however, and sometimes get panicky, fatalistic, down, etc. even though I know that I should know better. Keep that in mind as you read on.

I've written before that in a 30-team league with all things being relatively equal, your club really shouldn't reach the top of the pile more than once a generation. Pause on that for a second. We had a terrific run from 1983 to 1993 that saw, well, you know what happened then, and have had to deal with the inevitable "market correction". As someone who grew up in a border town and saw more games at Tiger Stadium than the Skydome as a kid, I'm grounded by the decade plus of suck that Tigers fans had to endure from 1994 to their improbable AL Championship in 2006.

What I'm saying is is that that we should appreciate success when it comes, embrace it for all its worth, without forgetting that it is by nature fleeting. Be patient, there are more glory days to come, though I wouldn't venture a guess as to when.

Still, I look back on this season feeling that a window of opportunity was missed. The Yankees fielded their worst team in 15 years, but the Rays somehow required only 9 spot starts outside of their top 5. That's unreal, that bit of tremendous luck, and largely explains the success of a club that didn't really hit that much better than the Jays and shouldn't have finished more than a bit better than .500.

As for the Jays, JP took some gambles on veteran players and none of them paid off. Frank Thomas couldn't turn on a fastball anymore, David Eckstein couldn't throw well enough to play shortstop, and Shannon Stewart couldn't do much of anything. Unsurprising as that appears now, it truly was bad luck that JP didn't get an acceptable return on even one of them. Still, we'll be left wondering what could've been had he been a bit more creative in the off-season, looking to Milton Bradley, Alexei Ramirez, and yes, even Barry Bonds, to fill those roles instead.

And the early season replacements weren't any more impressive, either. Mariners' reject Brad Wilkerson had an atrocious season (OPS+ of 65), and I'd be surprised if he finds a major league roster spot next year. Kevin Mench (OPS+ of 77), who had pummeled lefties throughout his career, seemingly forgot how to hit, failing to even sock one lousy dinger. Later came Jose Batista (OPS+ of 71), who has been equally underwhelming, albeit over a much smaller sample size.

Really, though, does any of this matter?

It's my nature to cringe a bit when I hear optimists say, "if only this, this, and this had happened differently..." regardless of how much merit there might be to what they're saying. But there was good, much good, to counterbalance the club's offensive deficiencies: the best pitching staff 1-12 in baseball and one of the best defensive units in the game. On the whole, this was a team that should've won over 90 games according to Old Man Pythagoras, which clearly indicates that there most definitely were many positives to carry forward into 2009.

Still, I can't help but feel uneasy about another year with JP at the helm. He's had cash to play with for three seasons, during which time he had one masterful off-season (2005-06), and two mediocre/subpar ones (2006-07, 2007-08). I think it's understandable that a broad swath of Jays fandom is weary of him, though I wish his opponents would focus their criticism where it's truly deserved.

I don't expect this team to be better next year... without an infusion of new personnel. And the moves and non-moves will play out in due time, so there's nothing left to do other than wait. We'll be talking about the off-season in greater detail over the coming weeks.

And that's a wrap. Thanks for staying with this post to the end, and again, much appreciation to all of you who've been loyal readers this year.

To better days ahead,

Johnny Was

Good Readin'

Buster Olney (who's becoming one of my favorite national commentators on baseball) wrote a fascinating article on ESPN about the production of the products of the various major league team's far system. While his primary focus is on the abysmal performance of the Yankees in that regard (take note all y'all who covet Brian Cashman for your GM) there's a chart which ranks the teams by number of offensive players and pitchers they have put in the major leagues in all the drafts from 1997 to 2005.

The hidden gem of the article though, is the column which shows the number of collective at bats or innings pitched for these players. If you rank the teams according to that data, then you find that the team which has developed the most collective at bats from their minors in the majors is - your Toronto Blue Jays (and yes i know that's a mixture of the work of two different GMs)

The Jays rank 8th on the list in innings pitched. It's good stuff, check it out.

~WillRain

Cito officially extended

Sportsnet is reporting that Gaston's officially been extended for 2 years. It was bound to happen eventually, but it's nice to know it's official.

The article states the Jays went 48-36 for a winning % of 571 since Cito's taken over. That's a 92 win pace, and would have put the Jays a few games back of the WC this year.

I guess this means JP is coming back next year, as it wouldn't have made much sense to sign the manager and fire the GM. The GM would want to pick his own manager, so it stands to reason JP will be back for 09.

I'm not going to always agree with Cito's decisions (I don't understand why he keeps his starters in so long), but overall he's done a pretty good with the team. He's made a tremendous impact on the starting lineup, which has been scoring nearly a run per game more than under the Gibbons regime. Not to mention the fact he's done a stellar job bridging the gap from AAA to the majors for prospects such as Adam Lind and Travis Snider. It makes me feel a lot more comfortable knowing Cito can handle the rooks, because the Jays should continue to bring up the next wave of top prospects (Cecil, Cooper, Arencibia, etc) over the next couple of years.

Welcome back for good, Cito. We can't wait to see what you'll do now that you're starting from Day 1.

Update: I'll include some of the players quotes, which weren't available when I first read the article:

"We've obviously played much better since he and his staff have been here," said centre fielder Vernon Wells. "It's good to know who we are going to have leading us into next year."

"There are some good things going on," said first baseman Lyle Overbay. "I'm excited, I want to see what he can do for a whole year.

Makes 2 of us, Lyle.

Twitchy.

Purcey shut down

We're probably a little late to the punch, but bluejays.com is reporting that Purcey has been shut down for the year. The reason is because he pitched 182 innings this year over various levels, and they don't want to ruin his future by having him throw so many innings in a season.

Generally with young pitching the rule is never to increase a pitcher's workload by more than 30 innings over their previous career high. Purcey only pitched 62 innings last year, but before that his career high for innings in a season was 140, back in 2006.

The Jays must be well aware of the fact that young pitchers should not throw more than 30 innings over their previous career high, which is why it's odd that Purcey was allowed to throw 182 innings this season. Unless I'm mistaken, the most he's ever thrown was the 140 in 06, which means that he shouldn't have thrown more than 170 this year over AAA/MLB.

Purcey hit 171 innings on Sept 7, when the Jays beat Garza and the Rays 1-0. At that point, I believe they were around 6-7 games out of a playoff spot. Purcey should have been shut down then, with his starts being given to Richmond or Parrish. Purcey's future with the Jays is more important than trying to push him in order to compete for a playoff spot.

I'm sure some of you are reading this, wondering why I'm making such a big deal about an extra 10 innings. But with so many young Blue Jay pitchers getting injured, it would have been wise to take a more cautious approach than to push Purcey over the 30 inning mark.

The article also makes a brief mention about McGowan, stating that:

The Jays will also be missing starter Dustin McGowan at the onset of next season. The right-hander had shoulder surgery earlier this year and may not be ready to return until at least May.

That might change between now and spring training, but if that's the case then May might be a best case scenario. Dusty is more likely to show up in June after a couple of tune up starts down in the minors.

Twitchy.

JP Claims AAA LHP Reid San... Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Slow news day as the Jays play out the string during the final week of the season, then it's announced that JP has plucked beanpole lefty reliever Reid Santos out of the Indians system. Commence wooting... Now!

Santos now becomes the third weirdest-looking pitcher on the Jays 40-man roster, just ahead of Jeremy Accardo, but trailing Brandon League by a considerable margin. Video here if you've got 30 seconds to spare.

Santos, 26, 13th round pick in 2002, Virgo, insert random biographical fact here, split the year between AA and AAA, posting a crappy ERA despite reasonable-ish peripherals (except for the 42 hits allowed in 25 AAA IP) as you had probably already guessed. He started at A ball in 2005, almost exclusively relieved in 2006, got a few starts in at AA in 2007, then went all bully this year. What role he plays next year is probably TBD.

Plagiarizing liberally from a post at Tony Lastoria's nice blog, Cleveland Indians Minor Leaguer, in January:

Santos is not overpowering in that his fastball sits around 91-92 MPH, but for a little guy he throws harder than you think. His fastball has good velocity, and he has a good assortment of secondary pitches with a slider, curveball and changeup. His changeup is good enough too where it really plays up the speed of his fastball, and he has the ability to strikeout hitters with his fastball, slider and changeup. He is a strike-thrower and has very good command and location of his pitches to all areas of the strike zone. His durability is also helped because of a low effort delivery.

Santos was much like a super utility pitcher last year in Akron as he pitched in every role conceivable be it in middle or long relief, setup man or closer, or in the starting rotation...

Santos has a great attitude, and his versatility to pitch out of the bullpen or as a starter - especially since he is left-handed - makes him very valuable to the Indians as a possible swing man down the road. The Indians see him as an early lefty out of the bullpen because he has the pitches to come in and attack both right-handed and left-handed hitters.

And there you have it.

Whether Santos ends up pitching in Toronto or not next year, little moves like this (be it scooping up good arms like Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Brian Tallet, etc. for cheap) have resulted in the best bullpen in baseball and are nothing to be scoffed at. I note this as a part-time Diamondbacks enthusiast dismayed at how that club likely won't be on its way to the playoffs because the Brandon Webb/Dan Haren tandem, a bevy of exciting young position players, and the key deadline acquisition of slugger Adam Dunn weren't enough to overcome the limitations imposed by a shitty, closerless bullpen.

-- Johnny Was