Down and out for the count

I'm sure most of you saw last night, Scott Downs sprained his ankle - the Jays have no idea how long he'll be out for. My guess, is that he's probably done for the year if it's a bad sprain. Even if it's just a small sprain, it might not be a bad idea to just shut him down for the year since we're pretty much out of it.

As I pointed out a couple of days ago, Downs was only one of the best relievers in all of baseball. So this is a pretty big loss for a team, even one with as much depth as the Jays. Parrish is likely going to be the guy called back up, although it would be interesting if Brian Wolfe or Davis Romero was recalled.

My big question though, is why was Downs coming into the game with a 4 run lead? It's not a "save situation" (which I think is stupid to use your best relievers, anyways, but thats for another time), so you don't need to use your closer. Ryan apparently couldn't pitch, so with a 4 run lead Cito opts to go to his best reliever.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but due up that inning was Placido Polanco (Right handed hitter), Magglio Ordonez (right handed batter) and Miguel Cabrera (right handed batter). I get that Downs is capable of getting out right handed hitters, but Downs shouldn't have been in the game to begin with. You know why?

BECAUSE THE JAYS HAD A 4 RUN LEAD!

I'm sorry, but there's absolutely no reason to use Downs with a 4 run lead heading into the 9th with 3 right handed batters up when you have Shawn Camp (hadn't been used since the 10th) and Brandon League available in the bullpen. You can give Downs a day off, and save him for a situation he's actually needed in. Hell, use Carlson if you want. But don't waste Downs with a 4 run lead. If you can't trust another reliever to get 3 out without giving up 4 runs, then the bullpen is in a lot more trouble than we thought.

While I'm not directly blaming Cito for the Downs injury, he shouldn't have been out there last night for that situation.

Twitchy.

The Definition of "No Risk Move"

So, word on the wire is that Raul Ibanez was claimed on waivers Tuesday afternoon but no word yet on who the lucky winner was.
Ibanez is obviously no Manny Ramirez, but for the uninformed, he's only hitting like this in Seattle:

.286

.351

.481

.832

That slugging and OPS would both be second only to Adam Lind on the Jays and the OBP would rank third. The man has 18 HR and 60 RBI and I don't need to tell you where those would rank.

The ever-informative MLBTR blog notes that among teams even remotely in the race, the claim order goes like this:

1. Tigers
2. Rangers
3. Blue Jays
4. Yankees
5. Twins
6. White Sox
7. Red Sox
8. Rays
9. Angels


Now, it's reasonably safe to say the Tigers and Rangers didn't make the claim, it's also pretty safe to speculate that once you are past the Jays the Twins and Rays seem the most likely candidates. Now, in my not-so-damn-humble opinion, making the claim was and is a no-brainer for the Jays.

Why? Because of the "three true outcomes" of a waiver claim in August:

1. The M's pull him back and we know we don't have to face him in the TB lineup the rest of the year

2. The M's give him to us and we end up paying roughly 1.25 million for a guy who will get you two draft picks next year which is a good bargain

3. You work out a deal in which you trade guys you are willing to give up for the player and the resulting draft picks (and you can bet your ass that would be "B list" guys, not Cecil or JPA).

The only way you can possibly fuck this up is by trading away too good a prospect to close the deal and if JP were going to do that he would have done so on July 31. The only way it is a bad idea is if the Big Boss won't stretch the budget that much which, again, they were willing to do just two weeks ago.

IF in fact the Jays did NOT make the claim then you can disregard any further happy-talk about management thinking we still have a puncher's chance of contention. this is the very model of a no-risk move.

~WillRain

Oh Canada! Misplaced Drunken Nationalism Finds A New Hero

It went a little bit off the rails there last night, but I still think that was my best post ever even if few people actually read it in full. If socio-economic circumstances, boredom, a creepy Stubby Clapp obsession, or insomnia have similarly inspired you to watch some Team Canada baseball action from Beijing, here's what's coming up this week.

It's pretty much all 6 a.m. or 10:30 p.m. EST starts--CAUTION: everything listed here is Beijing time, which is exactly 12 hours ahead of Toronto--and games aren't moving along any faster than a typical MLB match up despite the lack of enforced commerical breaks. I would strongly suggest watching the commentator/graphic-free online feed at cbc.ca/olympics over going with the main network because it won't cut away for random events you probably have no interest in watching. The picture quality is as good as a mlb.tv broadcast and the mic picks up pretty much everything on the field sound-wise, which is kind of cool.

Former replacment player/Sportsnet Jays analyst Warren Sawkiw and veteran anchorman Jim Van Horne do the commentary when the broadcast is on the main network. Sawkiw was panned for his radio work during a brief stint as Jerry Howarth's broadcast partner and Van Horne is probably best known for his impressive mustache, but they're no more annoying than Jamie Campbell and Pat Tabler. Why the CBC doesn't insert commentary/graphics into the online feed when they've already got a team on the ground producing the TV broadcast is a bit odd, but I'll take what I can get.

Next up for Team Canada is Cuba at 6 a.m. on Thursday. The Cubans have won gold at the last three Olympics and are probably more into international baseball than any other country on earth, so I expect they're out to prove something seeing as it's coming off the docket for London 2012. The Cubans kind of slapped Japanese phenom Yu Darvish around a bit this morning, beating the Nipponese side 4-2. And Kenny Williams doesn't look all that bad for signing former Cuban homerun king Alexei Ramirez, now does he? These dudes are for real. Scott Richmond would've got the start for this one, so expect another dose of shitting on JP if Canada loses by a small margin. This should be a good'un for a bunch of reasons

It's another 6 a.m. start for Canada against Good Korea on Friday. The Koreans came back to score 2 in the 9th to beat Team USA 8-7 this morning in what must've been an exciting game. Haven't heard of any of the American hurlers, so it's possible the Yanks underestimated the opposition. From what I recall of the WBC in 2006 the Koreans don't have any conventional relivers, all Mark Eichorn-esque submariners. Cool! Another lost art, like the knuckleball.

Finally, a night game. Double dip Friday as Canada takes on the Americans at 10:30 p.m., which ironically is a night game followed by an (early) morning game. Did that just totally blow your mind? If there's any interest, I'm totally up for live-blogging this one, too. The American side features some interesting prospects like world-destroyer Matt Laporta and Jason Donald, the Phillies AA shortstop I was hoping JP would trade AJ Burnett for...

Sunday is an off-day.

JAYS SHIT:

The Tigers show us that there's more than one way to find yourself sniffing .500. Tell me a rickety, unreliable bullpen headed up by the Ghost of Todd Jones isn't just as frustrating as a lineup that's incapable of socking dingers? At least the Jays excel at pitching and defense, whereas our erstwhile enemies in Motown might score runs but have to come to terms with a GM who mortgaged the future by trading for a bunch of aging sluggers and Dontrelle Willis. The future is no brighter on the other side of the St. Clair River.

More awesomeness. One of my poolies (the only Tiger fan in the league) sends this dispatch from Detroit after catching yesterday's game at Comerica:

FYI: The wife and I were in a Detroit shopping mall yesterday at lunch, and spotted AJ Burnett. He was being dragged around by his wife/gf. The tats on his glove arm confirmed it. Apparently his gameday routine includes eating junkfood in mall food courts.

I thought about asking him for his autograph... but then remembered that I'm not 13.

Townz

Is anyone surprised by that?

-- Johnny Was

Canada-China Olympic Preliminary

Spent the day painting and repairing shit around this apartment I've lived in for the past two years before we move out at the end of the month. There's no way the rental office doesn't notice the giant hole in the wall I shoddily patched over, but it was my first time working with plaster and I'm hoping I can get away with my indiscretion without losing hundreds of dollars in security deposit money.

So anyway, this is what it's like being an unemployed grad student, staying up late to get drunk alone off home-made wine and write a live blog no one will read live for a sporting event very few of you care about. I was talking to my brother on MSN about the game earlier tonight but he lost interest and stopped replying, so I'm reducing to doing this instead.

Welcome to my world.

I've been whinging quite a bit about the Jays of late, so I'm going to attempt to give you something enjoyable and positive to read about the Scott Richmond-less Team Canada. It's hard to figure out who's who with no commentary, but I'll do my best. I was hoping to see some of Brett Lawire, the 16th overall pick by the Brewers in the June amateur draft, but he's not in the starting lineup. Try to contain your disappointment.

11:29 - So this is how Chinamen design a ball park? This place is colder than a Klondike Bar. I'd rather watch intercounty league teams go at it in Stratford than see a game here. When I was on a prolonged sojurn in Beijing with the Mrs. two summers ago I had her make some calls for me in the hopes of catching a CBL game or two to provide a break from the intense heat and over-crowding (figuring that a ball game in China is the last place you'd find too many people).

The only problem was that when we got through to the club they had no idea when or where their next game would be played and were somewhat baffled that anyone actually wanted to come see them play. When I asked about buying a t-shirt or jersey the secretary responded with total incomprehension.

11:30 - I'm watching the CBC feed online because the main network is carrying swimming and gymnastics even though Canada has no chance of winning either event. Here on the baseball feed there's no commentary, just park sounds, and it's absolutely serene. It's pure baseball, players chatting to each other, fists smacking gloves, the crack of the bat, clapping, the PA. No inane chatter from Darren Fletcher about hot dogs, no Jamie Campbell losing his shit when the other team has a late-game rally, not even Wilner updating out-of-town scores from the Fan HQ.

This is blissfull.

11:35 - London content! Adam Stern batting leadoff, flies out. Still, more Adam Stern to come.

11:37 - Number 11, let's assume that was Stubby Clapp (confirmed later by the defensive graphic), flies out deep to left where Wang Chao makes a nice little snow cone catch. Wang's got some faux Oakley's on and wears them like someone who aspires to play in the bigs.

11:38 - Michael Saunders, an outfielder in the Mariner's system who had a nifty little season at AA, is one lanky motherfucker who looks like he's got pop. He launches another routine fly right to the centre fielder. The Canuckers go three up, three down, but put three balls in the air. Chinese starter Bo Tao could be in for grief.

11:40 - Chris Begg (spent last year at the Giants AAA affiliate posting atrocious peripherals but winning 12 games nonetheless) gets the start for Team Canada, gives up a leadoff single but induces an inning ending double play ball from China's 3-hitter Feng Fei. I missed what happened to the 2-hitter pouring some wine...

11:48 -Some guy who looks like Corey Koskie leads off the second with a grounder right to the first baseman. Nick Weglarz a promising 20-year-old OF in the Indians system, singles to right, then Jimmy Vanostrand hits into an inning-ending double play... Bo Tao just got his last three hitters to put the ball on the ground, so maybe there's more to his game than I first thought.

11:54 - Wang Wei leads off the Chinese second and grounds out weakly to second. Zhang Yufeng punches a single over Stubby Clapp's head to right, Li Lei follows up with one more of the same. Chinese rally! The crowd is chanting "Wang Chao", alternating between dames and dudes. It's kind of eerie and cool, who knows where they came up with this because it's not part of anyone else's baseball culture. Wang chases some bad breaking shit down and away, striking out to end the threat.

12:01 - What's the square root of Matt Rogelstad, Chris Robinson, Emmanuel Garcia? Three up, three down. We're once through the order and I can recall only one, maybe two, righty bats in the Canadian lineup against the lefty starter. Ok, I get it, everyone here plays baseball under duress while day-dreaming of playing in the OHL.

12:07 - Just so you know, every hitter on both teams uses double flap-helmets just like the ones you used to wear in little league. I wonder if they have one helmet per player or share them? We'll find out if someone calls timeout before their at bat with the bases loaded to switch that tight 4th helmet no one wants to wear with one of the bigger ones worn by a baserunner.

The Chinese go down quicker than a French hooker in their half of the 3rd.

12:12 - Adam Stern! Canada has gone three innings without scoring against a team from a country where no one actually plays baseball. One of the stern-looking Asian umps growls at the the mincing Olympic mascots to get the fuck away from the field. Stern shows bunt, but pulls it back, just messing with you... And again with the bunt... I know you're fast Adam, but come on here, let's "turn it loose" as Rance Mulliniks would say. Hey hey! Stern ends up flying out to second base, manager Terry Puhl looks unimpressed with his limp-dicked offense.

Some "Stubby" chants from die-hard Canada fans, random crowd exhortations of the sort you'd hear in little league. "Commmmeeeee Onnnnn! Swwwwiiiiiing!" Ah, why didn't I think of that? And Stubby punches a single up the middle.

The Chinese starter Bo thinks Stubby is going and throws over frequently. Paid too much attention to the baserunner and gave up a single to Saunders. And Bo's clearly rattled... Oh, snap! Corey Koskie lookalike (I later find out it's Scott Thorman of Cambridge, Ontario, a first baseman in the Braves system who somehow got almost 300 Brad Wilkerson-esque ABs last year) smacks a 3-run homerun to deep right. Canada up 3-0!

12:28 - The network switches over to baseball and I see from a CBC graphic that Warren Sawkiw and Jim Van Horne are doing the commentary. I'll stick with the online feed. No, I can't... It was nice being at peace with my thoughts for three innings but I'm starting to get lonely.

Selina has joined me in the living room and informs me that the crowd is chanting "Go Chinese Team!" They do that at every sporting event, especially volleyball, she tells me. Was I supposed to talk to her about something? Perhaps, but I continue blogging...

A Chinese player doubles to left to lead off the bottom of the fourth, but Wang Wei K's, next dude grounds out weakly to the pitcher advancing the runner to third with two outs, then Begg K's a goateed Chinaman to work his way his way out of the inning.

If you were wondering why the Chinese kind of suck ass at baseball compared to the Japanese, Koreans and Taiwainese, it's because Chairman Mao banned baseball as a decadent American influence in 1959. Baseball certainly wasn't worth a trip to the gulag, so memories of Babe Ruth barn-storming in Shanghai in the '30s had almost all been forgotten by the time the ban was lifted in 1975, a year before Mao's death. Maybe Nixon softened him up? In any event, baseball in China had gone from niche sport than pulled in a few curious locals in its heyday to a diversion roughly on par with chess boxing in terms of fan support today... MLB has spent some serious cash developing baseball academies in China and the Yankees made bit of a PR splash by signing a pair of Chinese players in 2007, but the sport doesn't yet have much cache as far as the average Chinese sports fan is concerned.

12:40 - Canada puts a pair of men on base and this game that had been ripping right along faster than I can type grinds to a halt. Liu Kai warming in the bullpen and it looks like the Chinese coach is going to call the Politburo to ask permission to make a pitching change.

Stern back up, two on, none out. Shows fucking bunt again, gay! "Turn it loose", Adam! You're playing China, one of your biggest fans is watching this in the wee hours of the morning and wants to see a big hit. The goateed Chinese third baseman, playing shallow to defend against the bunt, makes a crazy back hand on the ground ball down the line and stumbles over the bag for the force out. Nice play, really nice play, and he's laughing himself silly.

12:44 - Chinese manager Jim Lefebvre comes out to make the pitching change. Bo cruised through the early going and leaves having surrendered 3 ER in 3.1 IP with runners on second and third and only one out.

12:46 - Liu (Yankees prospect) is a tall 20-year-old lefty with a good fastball and he's raw... just fired a pickoff throw to second into centrefield, would've pegged a day-dreaming Manny Garcia if he'd hit the shortstop. Rob Ducey is going to tear a strip off Garcia for that Rios-esque brain fart, but a run scores on the error. Clapp walks and the bases are loaded, this is where you pile it on and make the Chinese wish they'd never taken up the sport...

The Chinese are warming a third lefty, Cheng Yuji (spelling?)...

Saunders K's on some bad, bad heat, and Thorman's back up again, Sawkiw thinks he needs a good Olympics to get his way back to the bigs. I'm guessing that mastering AAA pitching might be a surer ticket, but I'm not a member of the paid media. Liu fires a wild pitch about 6 feet off the plate and another run comes in to score. The wheels are coming off here for China. And then he beans Thorman. Retribution? No, this kid just can't throw strikes and he's probably nervous as shit playing in front of a packed house of 12000, which is roughly 11990 more than he's ever played in front of before.

12:55 - Lefebvre yanks Liu, hopefully for someone who can throw strikes. The new pitcher gets a fly out to end the inning, Canada up 5-0.

Van Horne mentions that if one team is leading by 10 the game can be called after 7 innings. Only the Texas Rangers would protest that rule and I have been given some hope of getting to bed before I feel the need to open a third bottom of wine.

1:01 - The main network cuts away from the game for a news update about the lip-synching scandal from the opening ceremonies. This is worse than 10 consecutive autotrader.ca ads; I'd be more shocked if the CCP hadn't chosen to lip-synch.

Begg puts 'em away, three up, three down. And we head to the sixth.

1:07 - The main network isn't going back to the ballgame, even though it's after one a.m. and only drunks and insomniacs are still watching. Every Team Canada booster who lost their shit at JP for calling up Scott Richmond, take fucking note. The main TV network in this country can only bear to show 40 minutes of a baseball game, that's where it stands on the list of national priorities. After going through the run down of every competition we lost pathetically, perhaps they'll switch back to a game Canada is actually winning.

1:10 - Adam Stern! Man on first, none out. Stern walks, Van Horne and Sawkiw have no idea what position he plays (CF), guessing that he's a shortstop. Nice try, fuckers. I'm more lucid and knowledgable after two bottles of wine and a day of painting in a poorly ventilated bathroom.

Stubby Clapp hates the mercy rule, choosing to end the inning by flying out pathetically even if it means running the risk of extending this game beyond 7 innings.

11:15 - Sawkiw and Van Horne are jawing about the future of Olympic baseball, speculating that it will return in 2016 if either Chicago or Tokyo puts up a winning bid. Baseball was dropped for London in 2012 because Eurotrash IOC members couldn't accept that MLB wouldn't release its best players for the Olympics. Sure, tell the Yankees they don't need Jeter and Rodriguez for 3 weeks to compete in an amateur tournament.

Begg gets 'em three up, three down again, and we've got to go back to Ian Hanomansing for another inane update about nothing anyone cares about.

1:24 - Thorman gets beaned again, this time by Chen Yunji, and it looked deliberate. Weglarz K's, but Thorman steals second. That's just a "fuck you for beaning me", but I'm wishing they could hurry up and score 10 so I can go to bed and hopefully not get yelled at for my stealth drinking in the living room.

Thorman scores on the single, but whoever hit it got greedy going for second and got thrown out. That's how you kill a rally.

1:32 - Some Chinese guy doubles to right and the Chinese crowd is back in it... and then the silence is deafening. Begg is so Josh Towers-esque that I'm expecting the Chinese to score at least one off him, but they keep chasing bad, bad breaking shit out of the zone with two strikes. We all have our weaknesses I guess.

1:34 - The CBC main network is playing some "women's" beach volleyball match between Brazil-Australia instead of switching back to the ball game. I can't imagine how that's more relevant to Canadian viewers than a game that Canada is playing in in a sport they're actually kind of good at. I would check those Aussie dames for cocks because they just don't look right...

1:40 - China has runners on first and third with one out (?) and Canada has made a pitching change. Number 22, side-armer. Chinese fans are trying to go crazy with "Chiiii-na!" chants and I'm kind of hoping they put one across.

I spent a couple of years studying in Britain in the early 2000s and got into international rugby, Six Nations, World Cup, etc.. I remember watching a game back in 2002 when England ran up the score against Romania, a newcomer to the sport, something like 108-0. After the game the Romanian coach said that no kids in his country would ever want to play the game after such a humiliation.

Engerlund!

6-0 Canada after 6 complete.

1:45 - I'm busting for a piss and the one bathroom here in this 2-bedroom apartment is occupied for the long term... Will I let one fly off the balcony? I won't have to see these people after the end of the month...

1:48 - I rocked that piss and it's up to you to guess where.

Canada has a runner on second, and it looks like Saunders is up.

1:51 - Another Chinese powwow on the mound, fucking hell do these guys take their sweet time.

I'm kind of seeing what Terry Puhl was saying about this team needing to score runs. If you can't mercy some Chinese scrubs, fear Cuba. Before I finish writing that the Chinese centrefielder takes a bad route on a shallow fly off the bat of ADAM STERN! That's a triple, biatches, and Canada needs 3 more for the mercy. So much as I can surmise there's a man on third with one out? It's hard to tell without commentory or any sort of graphics. And I'm more than a little bit drunk.

1:58 - Li Weiliang is the new Chinese pitcher, indistinguishable from the last three in stuff, form or physical appearance. I hear jostling from the bedroom and should probably join the Mrs, but I'm going to push this as long as I can. I've had a good run...

2:01 - Fuck yeah, Mike Saunders takes Li deep to right!?! Was there anyone on base at that point? It's impossible to tell with this bare bones online production. I don't even know what the score is, but we're that much closer to the mercy rule.

The inning ends, fuck yeah, Canada up 10-0. Stop those railroad-builders here and now and I get to go to bed now with minimal marital strife. Do me this one solid Team Canada.

2:04 - Just got an earful, this ends here and now. Let's assume Canada won 10-0.

-- Johnny Was

Guess who's back?

According to bluejays.com, Litsch is back in the Jays starting rotation, Richmond is in the pen, and Parrish was optioned to AAA.

The move to call up Richmond was a mistake from the start, and this series of moves still doesn't fix that mistake. As I pointed out earlier, there were (and are) several options that could have been used to let Richmond play in the Olympics, and at the same time made the Jays a better team. The Jays could have used any of Brian Wolfe, Davis Romero, or even Jesse Litsch, instead of calling up Richmond.

Now Litsch is back in the rotation. I don't like him that much going forwards, but a 4.46 ERA from a 5th starter is not that bad. He wasn't pitching well, but considering his replacement, as well as the other options available, he really didn't deserve a demotion.

So at least he's back with the Jays now. Course, it might be worth looking into his service time, to see if keeping him down for a few weeks may have changed his arbitration/free agency years, but I doubt that's the reason. Hell, I doubt it was even affected much, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

As for Richmond - he's not going to be used that much, if at all. He'll probably eat some innings when the team is out of it, but beyond that it's pretty obvious he isn't pitching any meaningful innings. I don't know why the team called him up, because he wasn't very good. It'll be interesting to see who gets used in a game first - Frasor or Richmond.

Parrish gets jerked around once again - he has a 109 ERA+, so he's been average at worst. He didn't deserve to get demoted, but he has to be the fall guy since the Jays can't demote Richmond without pissing off the Canadian Olympic team.

I guess I'm sort of happy Litsch is back, if only because Richmond's out of the rotation. But I don't know what inspired them to decide they wanted to see if Richmond could make it as a major leaguer. And in all honesty, would it have killed them to give him a spot start in Sept if they really wanted to see him pitch?

Twitchy.

Noted in passing...

I'll refrain from extensive remarks on Rolen and the Rolen/Glaus deal in hindsight--though I do not shy from being a big backer of the deal--but if this does happen to be the end of his year, I wanted to make a passing observation while the topic is hot.

Through Rolen's first 59 games this season, he had an .851 OPS and was on a pace that, over 142 games, would have amounted to 43 doubles and 14 HR. Now, it is true that the Jays lack for power. It's also true that at this point we don't know for sure what if anything that ghostly shoulder difficulty will allow Rolen to do. Obviously if this is the sort of thing that's going to keep him from getting through a productive season ever again, then it's a total loss. That was always the risk the deal involved.

But laying the worst case scenario aside, IF the Jays had to resign themselves to the fact that they are paying $11 million per for a stellar defensive 3B who's offensive ceiling is .850...that's not a bad deal at all. Especially when you consider the dearth of potentially better 3Bs available to them. Given the health, contract, and discontent situation we had with Glaus, if that's what we end up having received for him, I'm cool with it.

~WillRain

A New Allegiance?

If you've come to accept that the Jays season did finally come to an unofficial end with that weekend sweep at the hands of the Indians and are left wondering who to cheer for now, might I suggest the Polish women's volleyball team as a worthy substitute?

They might not be (ok, definitely aren't) one of the better teams in the volleyball word, but the Polkas are most certainly leading the Olympics in general attractiveness so much as I can surmise. After falling to China 3 sets to 1 earlier this morning, the they're pretty much in a must-win situation when they take on Japan Wednesday at 8 a.m. EST and again against the Americans at 12:30 a.m. on the 17th.

You won't have too many more opportunities to catch them in action, jumping, hugging each other, being perfectly sculpted, and so forth...

-- Johnny Was

How awesome has Scott Downs been?

2008 Scott Downs: 325 ERA+ (55 IP)
2008 Mariano Rivera: 294 ERA+ (50 IP)

I can't say enough about the job Downs' has done this year. A 1.29 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, a ridiculous 325 ERA+. And nobody outside of Toronto fans really know that he's been one of, if not the best RP in the game.

This was one of the better moves made in the offseason by JP. Could you imagine if Downs was heading into FA with no contract extension? We'd be paying him BJ Ryan type $ just to keep him. And yet the Jays got him signed for 3.75 and 4 million for the next 2 years. What a steal.

Twitchy.

Is it too much to ask for a little magic?

Apparently so.

It's part of my Jays' Fan DNA to be hopeful for the future, both this year and in the years to come, so I'm always easy prey for the tease of "the imminent winning streak that will put us right back in it" even when my rational side knows that winning 2/3 of our remaining games is about as likely as gas prices going under $2 a gallon this fall.

That being the case, it is both wholly expected and utterly depressing that the Jays would squander the momentum of the Oakland series against a last place team and in their home park to boot.

Look, guys, I can reconcile myself to the idea that you are going to finish marginally over .500 if that be your fate, but dammit, quit teasing me!

I'm not even asking for a playoff spot anymore, all I want is one thing - finish ahead of the Yankees. Ever since the ASB I've been holding a little candle for the idea that you could string together 9 or 10 in a row and really give us a thrill ride to the end. A little magic is a good way to keep the fans amused. But I see now that if you can't even take advantage of the shipwrecked season the Indians are having, you don't have it in you. You don't deserve it.

So I'm turning my attention to the future. I know I know, as soon as I say this publicly you'll win the next seven and try to lure me back, but I'm not coming back....not until you are the second place team in the wild card race (which you ain't gonna be).

That doesn't mean I'm through being a Jays fan, it doesn't even mean I'm counting the hours until JP is fired. Frankly, despite my earlier acknowledgment that the Jays pretty much have to do it, I've come around to the point where I'm rooting for him.

Yes, he has terminal foot-in-mouth disease, but the more I analyze his record the more hollow the objections to him become in my eyes. And the more empty and illogical calls for his head I see, the more inclined I am to take his side and defend him so I can lick the salty tears from the face of the haters when he doesn't get canned.

But I digress.

What it does mean is that you will see a lot more from me in this space about 2009, and the upcoming budget, and what we can expect from our prospects, and things like that. Already I'm harboring visions of a Championship year next year and my optimism is undimmed about the Jays' future. I'm not as crushed even about this year as many are because I recognize that for two long stretches they have played very good ball (In the last seven weeks they have the third best record in baseball) but the math is simply against them at this point.

Obviously, I have a lot of mixed emotions at this point. But hell, after this series I had to say something.

~WillRain

Lefty Matters

One of our side projects here--dating all the way back to spring training, before he started chucking beebees in AAA--was to sing the praises of, boost, encourage, etc. lefty starter David Purcey. Might we have a new beau? (More later).

Purcey got hung with the loss last night (despite posting his second quality start in his last 3 outings), but has been making visible progress at the big league level. Shutting down a raking lineup like the Rangers through 3 a week ago and the Tribe again last night is an accomplishment of sorts. Purcey's got the stuff to win at this level, and now some of the official responsibility for teaching him how to deal with big leaguers the second time through the lineup falls to BA Barajas and Brad Arnsberg (and unofficially, elder statesman Roy Halladay).

I make no bones about the fact that I've always prefered Purcey to Jesse Litsch, though I take no joy in the relative success of the former and minor setbacks of the latter. However it breaks next year, it is reassuring to know that there will be a real competition between relatively young, controllable and hopefully ERA+ neutral starters for the back 2 spots in the rotation in spring training.

[Other names to watch: Brian Wolfe, Davis Romero (quietly putting up a fantastic season for the Chiefs after missing all of 2007 to a torn labrum) and potentially Casey Janssen (see: Romero, Davis).]

Enter Ricky Romero, a bust at 23, the guy the Jays took over Troy Tulowitzki (he of the 76 OPS+ away from Coors Field), and the second blackest mark on JP's draft record after Russ Adams.

Expectations were naturally high for Romero, the 6th overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Cal State Fullerton who netted a record $2.4 million signing bonus (compared to $1.7 million for Snider in 2006, $1.44 million for Kevin Ahrens in 2007, both top Jays picks in successive years). He was very much part of JP's draft strategy of targeting college pitchers who could be expected to hit the bigs faster than their high school counterparts with higher ceilings. That strategy has more than a few detractors around these parts despite the success of Casey Janssen and Shaun Marcum.

Romero did not fare particularly well at New Hampshire this year, posting a 4.96 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP with 55 BB and 78 Ks in 121.2 IP in his third crack at AA. He had ratcheted it up of late, but probably got a promotion to AAA mostly because someone had to fill the spots vacated by Dave Purcey and Scott Richmond and 21-year-old wunderkind Brett Cecil had already been bumped up. We need a guy, you're a guy who's supposed to have potential, let's dance.

Romero has risen to the challenge (in defiance of everyone who called him a bust?), putting up 3 good starts so far for the Chiefs, including an excellent one last night. Quick recap: 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 hits, 3 BB and 10 Ks in a winning effort.

Given all of the shuffling around him, it seems a given that Romero will start out next year in AAA at age 24, just like college righties Marcum and Janssen before him. He needs to lower his walk rate, but something might have clicked with the young lefty. Is it conceivable that he makes his big league debut next year? Certainly. Will he excel? I wouldn't take that bet. Are we pulling for him? Hells yeah.

And some people are still calling Wilner to ask how Gustavo Chacin is doing...

-- Johnny Was

Cy Young Frontrunners

The Jays are playing the Indians this week, and we'll be lucky enough to watch arguably the top two pitchers in the AL pitch on consecutive days. They won't get a chance to face off against each other - Doc pitches tomorrow against Byrd, and Lee goes Sunday vs Richmond.

Lee's a great story - a guy who came back from pretty much the worst year of his career, where he'd spent some time in AAA, to absolutely dominating the AL.

Doc is doing what he's always done - eating up a ton of innings while putting out a dominant performance. For what it's worth, I think he's having the best year of his brilliant career.

Lee's got a better chance of winning the Cy Young if he keeps this up - he's got all the pretty stats that writers go for in Win/Loss record (15-2 for Lee vs 13-8 for Doc). Lee also has a 2.58 ERA, slightly better than Doc's impressive 2.77 ERA. I don't expect the writers to look at much more than ERA, K's, and Win/Loss record, so if Lee can keep this up he'll probably get the majority of the votes.

But does that mean that he's actually been the best pitcher in the league, deserving of the award? I'll take a look here to find out if Lee's really deserving.

Lee has a phenomenal K:BB rate at 127:22, good enough for a 5.77 K:BB rate. Doc's ain't that bad either, at 149:29, which gives him a 5.13 K:BB rate. Doc makes up for it with a 1.98 GB rate. Cliff isn't the groundball specialist that Doc is, and he comes in with a 1.14 GB:FB ratio.

I usually look at ERA+ to help when the pitching stats are very close like they are here. Cliff Lee is the winner in that, with an incredible 168 to Doc's 151. Now, if I was to base this solely on the ERA+, Lee would be the winner. But there's one more stat that's in Halladay's favour.

Roy's pitched 175 1/3 innings, while Lee has pitched 153 2/3 innings. So to this point in the season, Halladay has thrown 21 2/3 innings more than Lee. Halladay is projected to throw 242 innings (!!!) while Lee is projected to throw 214.

I think the amount of innings thrown by Doc' gives him a bit of an advantage over Lee. Lee's stats may be better, but by pitching more Halladay has had a bigger impact on the Jays team. And if the projections pan out, Doc will end up throwing nearly 30 innings more than Lee.

If you look back to last year, a similar situation occurred. CC Sabathia won the Cy Young award over Beckett, despite Beckett posting arguably better numbers. The reason CC won - or at least most likely won - is the fact he pitched nearly 40 innings more than Beckett.

When the season's over, I still think Lee will win the award. He's got the pretty stats I mentioned early, and in those stats he's significantly better than Doc. But if these guys keep pitching like they do now, I think that at the end of the year, Halladay's the one who should be winning the award.

Twitchy.

Total Cynicism

There's something quintessentially Russian about using the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games as cover for an invasion of a small neighbouring country. Have no fear, American friends, you are not under attack: this action by Russian "peacekeepers" is taking place in the ancient Caucasian country of Georgia, not the Southern state known for it's delicious peaches and the Atlanta Braves.

As someone who is highly cynical about pretty much everyone's motives and have brought that perspective to my coverage of the Jays here at this blog, I even have to pause for a moment.

Ok, well, that's done.

Old Friend Jeff Blair is presently covering women's soccer at the Olympics and brings his usual irreverant wit and biting commentary to the other side of the Bamboo Curtain. Amidst all of the hobby sports that take up about 80% of the Olympics, I do admit to looking forward to watching Canada-China with the Mrs over breakfast tomorrow morning...

p.s. we'll be pulling for opposite sides if you didn't catch my drift

-- Johnny Was

Article of the Year.

No, it's not one of the classics we provide you with here, rather it's to be found over at the always worth Tao of Stieb.

Go read it. no, seriously. Stop what you are doing - put down the fucking corn dog - and go read it. It is perfect in ever detail. And if it applies to you, take his advice.

~WillRain

Urging Caution

There was definitely some excitment last night hearing JP announce on JaysTalk that phenom Travis Snider had been called up to AAA, which probably puts him on track for a mid-season call up next year. Snider is undoubtably the most exciting young position player to come through the Jays system since Vernon Wells came up to stay in 2001 and good or ill in 2009, it'll be a pleasure to watch Snider develop with big club.

And there there was some trepidation.

There's little more than 3 weeks left to play in the high minor leagues and Snider's promotion to Syracuse at this point amounts to nothing more than a brief peekaboo at the next rung up the ladder. If it must be said that he played through an elbow injury early in the season, it should also be noted that he hasn't dominated AA either (.258/.351/.456 in 333 ABs).

It's a feather in his cap to make the jump from high A ball to AAA in his age 20 season, but that pat in the back could've also come in the form of a September call-up after finishing out the year in New Hampshire and semi-regular PT in the bigs for a few weeks. Added benefits: give the fan base a glimpse of the future (and sell a few extra tickets to otherwise meaningless games), get the kid a taste of the bigs, then let him start 2009 fresh in Syracuse. No harm done.

I'm urging caution with Snider because two-thirds of the Jays current outfield is made up of promising young hitters who were rushed (by JP) through AAA and stalled during their first go at a full-time job in the bigs. There's no catch-all model for all hitters, but I'd hate to see the same happen to Snider next year after all the promise he's shown early in his pro career.

After dominating AA at age 22 (.923 OPS) in 2003, Alex Rios was called up to Toronto the following year despite scuffling (.665 OPS) through a brief 185-AB pit stop in Syracuse. While his first two seasons in the bigs weren't an unmitigated disaster, it was clear at the time that his game wasn't quite ready for prime time. Two years of service time were burnt for a .721 OPS season with 1 HR and a .703 OPS with 10 HR. Rios was knocking, but he hadn't yet kicked the door down.

Adam Lind followed a similar path, though he was promoted even more aggressively. He probably could have hit anything, anywhere back in 2006 as he actually got better with each successive call up, but he still only ended up with under 300 AAA ABs (and that after only about 2/3 of a season at AA) before coming up as Reed Johnson's injury replacement in 2007. We all know how that ended up, though there's little doubt now that he's a capable big league hitter. Nevertheless, that early promotion did some serious damage to his overall development, something that JP seems quite aware of these days.

I could go outside the organization to cite a few other examples of hitters who were imprudently rushed to the bigs, though none looms larger than Billy Butler, the young Royal whose game most closely resembles Snider's. Maybe Snider is born to hit and can handle the call to the bigs next year at age 21, but the risks of an aggressive promotion schedule have to be weighed against the long-term consequences for both the player and the team. As excited as you all are for him, don't assume that he should be a Jay in 2009.

-- Johnny Was

What might have been . . .

With tonight's win, the Blue Jays are tied with the Twins for the third best record in the majors since June 22. Only the Angels and Rays have been better in that span.

The Jays are playing .605 in that period and continuing at that pace would give us 87 wins.

To continue to beat my other dead horse, without those two miserable 14 game stretches (3-11 both times) the Jays are 52-34 in all other games, i.e. playing .604 ball.

For reference, .604 over a full season is 98 wins.

What might have been....

~WillRain