Wednesday, 30 July 2008

Point of Order

I should include this as a comment on Johnny's excellent post below but I want to drag it out into the daylight (like I did a couple weeks back with the idea that AJ could still be dealt in August if need be) so I get credit for saying it ;)

Something I haven't seen anyone else mention but is, I think, highly relevant as we look towards next years is that 2008 is the final year of the $210 million budget arc announced before the 2006 season. That fact, combined with the way the current payroll obligations spike in 2010 leads me to believe that there's something afoot the Jays are not saying yet, to wit - there's a big payroll boost coming. And given the fact that people tend to invoke certain "milestones" in such announcements, I'm going to take a blind shot in the dark and say something like $400 million over the next three years.

You heard it here first.

Other thoughts on Johnny's piece (since I'm already stroking my ego with a seperate post):

a. If we have to sign a starter in the offseason (that's not AJ) I'm all about Derek Lowe.
He's projectable, probably won't hold out for five years, and is second tier in terms of contract.

b. If I'm wrong about the payroll boost, then I think taking your run at Manny as Job One. Whatever we do or don't do about the rotation (save locking up Burnett) is secondary. If Ramirez is our DH and Doc/Marcum/Purcey/Litsch/Richmond, Parrish, Cecil, whoever is our rotation we are better equipped than if we add (gad no) someone like Jon Garland and then a good-but-not-great DH for 6 or 7 million.

c. I may be totally off base here but the synergy between the example Doc sets, the comfort zone with Arny, and general flakiness gives me the hunch that AJ will defy all logic and expectations and accept a buy-out of his option....maybe we have to add an option year to the end but I just have a strong feeling that he'll try to emulate Doc and lay aside maximizing his earning opportunity to stay with the Jays.


No comments: