Thursday, 15 May 2008

Time to start our own trade rumour

This one's for Johnny. As you're all well aware, Johnny's been championing Khalil Greene to be our SS of the future. He is struggling now, but keep in mind this is a SS who has a career batting line away from Petco of 275/326/503 (830 OPS). On top of that, Greene is a pretty elite defender, as he's currently 9th out of 27 for qualifying SS's in ZR.

So why do I bring this up? Well, I was reading ESPN's Rumblings & Grumblings when I saw this:

EYES ON SAN DIEGO: Here's one AL executive's nomination for a club that could go into early selling mode: The Padres. "The vibes we're getting is that they already know it's not happening for them this year," the exec said. "So they may be the first team that tries to be opportunistic." Among the Padres the shoppers figure to keep their eye on: Khalil Greene, Kevin Kouzmanoff (to open third base for Chase Headley), Randy Wolf and any bullpen arms the Padres would talk about.

Now, if they trade Kouzmanoff to open 3B for Chase Headley, one of the positions that they'd have an opening in would be the OF. While I'd love to see Adam Lind develop as a Jay, it's clear that JP and management feels differently. His trade value couldn't be lower, but could an Adam Lind for Khalil Greene swap be a possibility? I'm sure JP might have to add more to it - who I'm not quite sure. But would Kevin Towers, the Padres GM, have an interest in a LH batting LF? Hey, you never know. I'd love to get Greene, because outside of Petco he could be one of the top offensive SS's in the game.

Oh, and if that's not enough for you, what about this gem? Despite a 586 OPS this season (buy-low candidate...and yes I know 586 is pretty bad), Greene is hitting 801 (OPS) with runners on base, and he also has a 948 OPS (!!!!) with RISP.

So with that in mind, I think it's time to start our own trade rumour. Khalil Greene will become a Toronto Blue Jay sometime this season. Get er' done JP!

Twitchy.

14 comments:

The Southpaw said...

Ow, my neck hurts from nodding in agreement so much!

None of the "contenders" AL or NL really has any need at SS aside from us, either.

JW

The Southpaw said...

Yes indeed. I say we pimp this one hard. I'd go so far as to add that as a condition of the deal that they would take Eckstien back in return.

There were a lot of reports in the Sprign that Towers wanted to add a bat in LF.

Jay K. said...

I've long been on the Green Train. He was my fantasy ninja last season and I am hoping that he gets moved to a park that isn't an abomination to the game.

The Southpaw said...

Blair totally ripped us off:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080515.WBbaseball20080515132026/WBStory/WBbaseball/

The Southpaw said...

Wow. I posted that a good 16 minutes before he did.

Hey Blair - you're not my buddy, friend.

Twitchy.

The Southpaw said...

Sam Jackson in Die Hard 3:

"We ain't buddies we ain't partners and we ain't friends"

LOL.

Look at it like this Twitch, your attempt to start a rumor is off to a rousing start!

The Southpaw said...

^^

Well, you got that right.

Twitch.

bkverona said...

As a Padres fan, I can tell you that Lind alone will not get it done for Greene. The Jays would have to add an arm like Marcum with the Pads adding a minor-leauger for that to happen. Straight up, it will take Rios to get Greene. And for what it's worth, we don't want Eckstein in any package.

The Southpaw said...

Bkverona - I think that's a little excessive for Greene, to be honest. Greene's a career 98 OPS+ hitter, and has a 308 OBP for his career. His best year had a 349 OBP, and that was the only year according to OPS+ he was above average. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't OPS+ adjust for park factors, meaning that the OPS+ takes into account he's hitting in Pecto?

I fully admit Lind alone wouldn't be enough, but I think Marcum has to have more value than Greene. And Rios would definetly have more value.

I know KT is a smart guy, but there's no way he'd get Marcum for Greene. Not that the Jays would do it, but if that was the case, the PADRES would have to add something.

Marcum's career hasn't been a long one, but in his career as a starter he's been a 4.17 ERA pitcher, as opposed to a 5.00+ ERA reliever. Even isolating 2007, his first as a starter, it was 3.91. He won't keep up the 2.22 ERA he has now, but to me, a young starter who can be a mid rotation pitcher (with little service time, I should add) has to have more value than a below average offensive SS. With the way young pitching is valued, I have to believe that a young, smart & cheap pitcher like Marcum has more value in a trade.

Greene's a great player, and Lind alone won't get him. But that'd be ridiculous overpayment by the Jays if Rios or Marcum was dealt for him.

Twitch.

bkverona said...

Southpaw- anyone can turn the discussion in their favor as you just did by picking only the aspects that support your stance, like you just did citing just OBP to evaluate Greene. To call him below average offensively is ridiculous. Look, I am not a big Greene fan because he is VERY streaky but how many SS's can hit 27 homers and drive in close to 100 runs in the #1 pitchers park in all of baseball?

Add to that the fact that he is as good a defensive SS as there is in baseball (defense is very subjective but watching him day in and day out he is tremendous) and he is worth every bit of Marcum or Rios. Marcum has been very good this season but he just showed up last year so will he continue to pitch like this? As for Rios, he has all the promise in the world but with an OPS of barely .700 this season, outfielders like that are a dime a dozen.

Greene plays the most pivotal defensive postion on the field and even if he doesn't get on-base alot, he'll end up with 20+ homers so that and his defense alone is worth Rios or Marcum. Also, don't forget that Greene just signed a very affordable two-year extension that starts after this season.

The Southpaw said...

20 + HR's is quite rare from a SS, but a sub 330 OBP is pretty bad. I don't care if he hits 60 HR's, cause with a 291 OBP, he's still hurting the team. And the 291 OBP was last year's, which is still better than this years 251.

Even in away games his OBP was what, 322? That's horrible, and that's being generous. It detracts from his slugging. In a good park, yeah, he might reach 330. But he's brutal for getting on base, and that's costing his team a lot.

As for Rios, he's shown 2 years of an 800-850 OPS, which is better than Greene's ever done - 794 was his best year.

He does have extra value for being an up the middle defender (and a good one at that), but based on OPS+ he is a below average offensive player. I know a lot of that is based on Petco, but it really drops his value.

I still think he's a terrific player. But not in that park, and because of that, it really drops his trade value. Obviously KT won't trade him unless he gets the package he wants.

Twitch.

dybbuk said...

What about the Rios for Lincecum near deal. You can't honestly tell me you think Greene for Lincecum would ever happen.

bkverona said...

I agree that Greene for Linecum would never happen. However, I believe that the Jays fans were dreaming to ever believe the Giants would trade Linecum for Rios as well. There's a reason that deal didn't happen.

Andrew said...

Yeah... Lincecum is better than Rios and Greene. JP could just end up throwing a bag of prospects like Lind, Thigpen, and Purcey for a year and a half of Greene. He was signed to a 2 year $11 Million extension which is not the cheapest thing in the world. If he expects the Jays to pay it all, then Lind for Greene would likely work, with a PTBNL. If Towers offers to pay some of the salary, then you know it's gotta be someone better from the Jays.

The Jays can eat the salary and more so go for it. By the end of all this we could have 32 outfielders and 12 shortstops. Who ever said buying in bulk wasn't smart.