Wednesday, 9 April 2008

Random Oddities

I had a bit of fun doing my stats projections a while ago, so I thought I'd take a look at some stats on how the Jays are doing so far.

Remember how everybody kept telling you that the Jays are so patient this year? I'm sure it's looked like everybody's taking more pitches, and tiring pitchers. I know I thought that was the case, until I saw that the jays were 10th in the AL in pitches/PA. So far in the season, the Jays are sitting at 3.67, with the AL average being 3.76. Not a huge difference, but the Jays haven't been as patient as I thought.

The Jays bullpen is third in the majors with a 1.56 ERA. The Jays are 0-3 in close games. That shouldn't be happening with a bullpen this good.

Despite being 4-3, the Jays are a -1 in their pythag victories, which would tie them for the AL lead. The bullpen, and how you perform in close & late generally determines how the team does, so it'll be something to keep an eye on as the season continues.

Speaking of pythag, the Jays have the best run differential in the AL with +14.

The Jays offense is not overachieving. The team BAPIP is 302, which is perfectly reasonable. I'm not expecting Thomas & Wells to hit a HR every game, but there's no reason to expect them to cool down either.

The Jays have scored an average of 5.71 runs per game, well above the AL average of 4.22. If they keep up this pace, they'll score 925 runs this season.

We'll keep making fun of Tampa's pitching, but they've got a better FIP than the Jays. Looks like they still haven't fixed their defensive issues, despite adding Bartlett at SS.

Funny story - remember how everyone was bitching about how brutal Zaun was at throwing out runners? Yeah, turns out the Jays have a 100 % CS ratio defensively. So looks like we've improved a bit there. The irony here is that Zaun went from being a top 10 OPS catcher to one of the worst hitters on the team with a 188/188/250 line. He went from having above average patience to not walking once so far. I blame this one on the fans - Zaun tried so hard to please everybody by throwing people out, that he hasn't focused on hitting.

Continuing on defense - as a team, the Jays have the second best IF in the AL according to Hardball Times RZR with 852, but the OF has been the worst with a 731 RZR (and by a significant margin - the next worst team is NYY with 857). Some people brought up the issue of OF defense costing last night's game, and it's something I'm going to pay a lot of attention to in the upcoming games. Wells and Rios should be above average, but they've been looking god-awful so far this season. ESPN's ZR has V-Dub as the worst defender at CF with 667...Nate Friggin McLouth (Fantasy stud) has a better ZR than Wells. That's right - the Pirates are beating the Jays at something. Rios is also at the bottom of the pack defensively in RF according to ESPN with 800. I know it's early, but those two are normally above average to elite defensively, and their poor OF defense is something to keep an eye on going forwards.



Jonathan said...

Maybe it just seems like they're being more patient because they've taken, holy crap, 70% of all first pitches that were in the zone.

What was the outfield D being blamed for? That last double? I thought most of those XBH were pretty solid gappers.

The Southpaw said...

Zaunner just looks more rugged and motivated this year, so I'm going to predict one of his best offensive seasons yet. And it's cool that he's partnered with an actual catcher and can take needed off days.

Scooter and Stew are definitely the weakest links so far. Health solves the former and Lind solves the latter.


The Southpaw said...

John - yeah, they are taking a lot of first pitches. But I'm sure I've heard the commentators or just random people saying how patient the Jays were. That's the impression I got till I looked - I was more surprised they weren't leading the league.

Rios is walking once a game, and for the most part the team looked a lot more patient. I don't mind that they're 10th in P/PA - we're one of the hottest offensive teams, so why walk when you're killing everything in sight with the bat? I just thought it was more amusing than anything else.

Oh, last night the last hit that went over Rios's head. He looked like he was playing shallow. Maybe it was just me who thought that, but I'm sure I heard someone else say it.

JW - I agree with the earlier stuff, and Stew, but I'm not sure Scoot is a liability yet. The BA is awful, but he has a solid OBP. I just can't figure out why he's batting in front of Zaun. And considering he's not meant to be a starter, you can't be too pissed with the job he's done. And he's the best defensive 3B in the majors, with a 1.000 ZR. Nothing has gotten by him, which for 61 innings is just ridiculous.


johnny said...

I think there might be some mystical connection between your praise for Scooter's D and that spin-o-rama error in the 9th.

Damn you, fate.